First Round Selection: Chris Long

What’s not to like? Long didn’t have the most dominant career at Virginia, but his senior season is hard to ignore. His 14 sacks, 19 tackles for a loss and 9 pass defenses including a pick are especially impressive on a defense without a ton of talent. Long aces Need, capable of playing end, situational tackle and linebacker on a team with needs at all three. He’s a heady player who loves football and is a perfect Fit in Jim Haslett’s aggressive, unpredictable and blitz happy defense. I might otherwise have some reservations about Long’s Value, I think Dorsey is the better talent, but Long has little Downside, and when you’re paying someone 9+ million a year, that matters. A great pick that made perfect sense for the Rams.

Best Value: Roy Schuening

Concerns about his athleticism accepted, the Rams found a starter ready guard with above average potential in the fifth. The value of that simply cannot be understated. I was high on Schuening from the start, and endorsed Seattle drafting him prior to them acquiring Mike Wahle. Rather than rephrase what I’ve already written:

Withholding Judgment On: Donnie Avery

The Rams needed a matchup problem to take some heat off of Tory Holt, and though Avery may forever play the slot, there’s nothing wrong with a slot receiver that can cause havoc on the third level. I always find it funny when the sports punditry gets up in arms about teams doing something counter to "conventional wisdom". Read: What they think. Avery has true football speed and will demand safety attention, every play.

On the flip side, he’s not much of a receiver. Beyond the speed, he’s easily covered, doesn’t box out well or run precise or deceptive routes. He’s a bit of a gimmick receiver, good at creating matchup problems but not stupendously effective. Avery’s selection makes a little more sense when coupled with the drafting of Keenan Burton. Burton has a pretty good shot of winning the starting #2 spot from Drew Bennett, and the two taken as a package, Burton and Avery that is, are nice combination of refinement and potential.

Overall: A

I thought this was a talent rich draft with the chance to change the fortunes of a franchise. The Rams need more than  a single influx of young talent, but this was a good start and simply a great draft: A vital low downside pick at 2, great value throughout, a polished right tackle in the third on a team that needs starters at offensive tackle, complimentary wide receivers that give a threadbare unit some life and Schuening added to an already punishing interior offensive line. A lot of people have completely written the Rams off, but they have a lot of talent on roster. I don’t buy Marc Bulger’s premature decline and think he can bounce back. The defense needs help, but I loved the Adam Carriker pick last season and Long is another cornerstone player. They’re still thin, but were very unlucky with injuries in 2007. Actual contention might take more than a few breaks and favorable bounces, but the road back to .500 is in sight.

First Round Selection: Kentwan Balmer

On the plus side, the Niners are finally putting resources into their defensive line after years of investing in flashy “playmakers”. On the downside, you have to wonder where Balmer fits in Mike Nolan’s Frankenstein defense. He’s built thin and long and needs to add weight to play nose or an effective end. End is likely his destination. The problem with Balmer is he’s really neither terribly high upside nor shallow downside. His career peak to this point is a second team All-ACC nod his senior season. The ACC is talent rich, but you’d like to see a first round pick with something more to show. And as I’ve previously pointed out:

Balmer’s breakout senior season had a lot of air in it. Balmer is a good in-shorts player, who looks real athletic, but is short on football skills and, presumably, determination. He needed to be taken by a top organization that could ensure him a lot of structure and force him into accountability, but that’s probably not the 49ers. Even then, I don’t know…presuming Nolan’s Monster is destined to one day become a 3-4, Balmer will play the inglorious role of offensive lineman mover. That’s a hard nosed position that records few counting stats and fewer money stats. One wants a tough guy with a pronounced mean streak. That’s just not Balmer.

Head Scratcher: Chilo Rachal

I should preface this by saying I’m not very high on Chilo Rachal. When I watched video of USC, Rachal seemed their least consistent and most mistake prone offensive linemen. Further, I’m never high on offensive linemen with questions about their pass blocking.

What makes Rachal a head scratcher, though, is that on a team with definite needs in the interior offensive line, Rachal isn’t really starter ready. Normally, on a team as far from contention as the Niners, I’d forgive taking a talented project pick, but the Niners are in a bit of a mutated win-now mode. Alex Smith and Mike Nolan are both playing for their jobs. And though contention is pretty unrealistic, some sign of improvement is very necessary.

If Rachal does start, woo-boy. He played on a stacked USC offensive line and was arguably the least accomplished of the 5. His talent, and by that I mean athleticism, pushed him into the second round, while two of his draft eligible teammates, Drew Radovich and Matt Spanos went undrafted. He’s slow off the snap, stiff in his hips and penalty prone. Scouts like his frame and explosive upper body strength, but his technique needs a snap or three on the practice squad. Unfortunately, putting your early second round pick on the practice squad isn’t really an option. Rachal could one day be a very good in-line run blocker and a fair pass blocker, which isn’t much value for a second round pick. One day.

Best Pick: Reggie Smith

Smith fits what the Niners want in a DB, a hard hitter, and is known to be good in coverage too. He was a standout at Oklahoma, starting 36 games in 3 seasons. His stock was depressed by marginal top end speed. He offers versatility as a utility DB, capable of playing both nickel and safety, is only 21 and has the foundation of skills and the will to be an above average starter at safety. Good value, good fit, low downside, good versatility and will contribute on special teams as a gunner and reserve return man.

Overall: D

A very poor draft for the 49ers; surprising, too, after an excellent draft in 2007. Balmer and Rachal are respectable athletes with few football skills. Cody Wallace is an interesting center prospect, very skilled, hard worker; a player I’d like more in another scheme, but good nonetheless. Josh Morgan is all athlete and zero football player. The Niners have to hope he can contribute as a return man before he’s arrested or kicked off the team. I like Larry Grant okay, and think he’ll provide a little pop on special teams. Given the state of the franchise, best available talent would have been wise watch words for every pick in the Niners draft. Ironically, I think they intended to do just that, but came up with this.

Here we go, round by round grades. For each pick, I’ll list the players I saw as the best value available, with consideration for overall talent but also the premium of the position and the upgrade from existing talent for Seattle. As always, this is my opinion. I try to make it as informed and supported as I can, but this isn’t meant as gospel or an attempt to shout down disagreement.

28: Lawrence Jackson

Best Value: Kenny Phillips, Lawrence Jackson, Phillip Merling, Brian Brohm

It would have warmed the cockles of my heart for Seattle to draft Philips and be done with Brian Russell, but it’s clear Tim Ruskell drafts his defenses from the inside out. In his 4 drafts and 30 picks, Ruskell has only drafted two DBs. It’s not that I think he devalues the secondary, only that he values experience. Merling is an excellent athlete, but his résumé pales compared to Jackson’s. Given their comparative health, experience, character and level of competition, Jackson was definitely the safer pick.

Notes: Seattle traded their 25^th pick for Dallas’ 28^th, 163^rd and 235^th picks.

Grade: A

Defensive end is a premium position, and given Patrick Kerney’s age and Seattle’s defensive scheme, this pick satisfied my every criteria: Value, Need, Fit and Downside. Jackson is lot like Kerney, actually. Both aren’t considered top flight edge rushers, but both are non-stop, smart and have the size and strength to anchor against the run as well as rush the passer. Adding Jackson has fringe benefits, too. Darryl Tapp is the team’s foremost edge rusher, but comes with scheme disadvantages. Namely, he vacates outside containment with Freeney-like gusto. In a reserve/rotation role, Tapp is an excellent situational pass rusher and has headache inducing versatility playing the short zone in Fire Zone blitzes.

38: John Carlson

Best Value: Trevor Laws, DeSean Jackson, Brian Brohm

Carlson just misses the cut, mostly because tight ends as a rule have a limited period of effectiveness. I graded Carlson as a solid first round talent, though, so it’s debatable. Folks around here know my fondness for Laws' game, but Seattle found better value at DT in the 4^th – not that we knew this then. I still can’t believe Jackson’s slide. Funny how groupthink pervades the NFL. I saw Jackson as a top 5 talent and think Philadelphia found an absolute steal in the mid-second round. It’ll be interesting to see how he functions in Andy Reid’s somewhat Holmgrenesque offense and wonder what could have been. Seattle didn’t see WR as a need and I don’t blame them. Brohm fell to Green Bay. The Packers loaded up on offense, though their defense is more in need of young talent.

Notes: Seattle traded their 86^th pick to Baltimore to move up from 55.

Grade: A-

Certainly the most controversial pick, I don’t doubt Carlson’s ability, only if he was worth both a second and third round pick. That third round pick likely cost Seattle an offensive tackle. It could be argued that Carlson is the best tight end Mike Holmgren has ever coached. Odd, then, that we might finally see just how valuable the position is in his final season coaching. I might grade this pick lower, it’s hard to stomach the value lost in moving up, but with New Orleans eyeing Carlson at 40 and Craig Stevens off the board a pick before Seattle’s selection in the 3rd, missing Carlson could have meant trotting out Jeb Putzier and Will Heller in week 1. Though I don’t know that Ruskell knew Tennessee would take Stevens, I imagine he’s still close with Titans GM Mike Reinfeldt and had some sense how much they valued him. I started by giving this pick a C, but the more I think, the more I think Carlson will be a special player for Seattle. His route running is superb. He aces my criteria of Need, Fit and Downside, and though I’m not fond of trading picks, Carlson is likely the best tight end talent to enter the draft since Heath Miller. When one considers that, Carlson’s polish and ability to contribute immediately to a franchise thinking "win now", his relative value becomes apparent. It’s been a slow process coming around to this pick, but one I don’t think I’ll regret.

121: Red Bryant

Best Value: Red Bryant, Tashard Choice, Keenan Burton, Frank Okam

I was obviously very high on Bryant, listing him as my best value defensive tackle of the 3^rd round – but not for every team. I’ll elaborate on that in a second. I fully believe that Tashard Choice will end up more valuable than the Cowboys’ first round pick, Felix Jones. Keenan Burton is (another) great example of how much more volatile mock drafts are then the real thing. Burton became a favorite value pick for bloggers the world over after more than one "expert" predicted he would fall as far as the 7^th, but c’mon. He’s polished, played in the SEC and blew out the combine. Okam is a great talent that has concerns about his effort. Many organizations would prefer a miscreant to a loafer.

Grade: A+

Frank Hughes described Bryant as country. Read: Naïve. Bryant was a model of inconsistency at Texas A&M, easily neutralized against Texas, but drawing true triple teams against Oklahoma. Previewing Bryant I wrote:

Bryant and Atkins have something very much in common, great talent. Atkins is a project both because he exited college lax in his prep and play and because he lacked (lacks) great football skills. Bryant is a little farther along. Both could be starters, and damn good ones, by 2010.

163: Owen Schmitt

Best Value: Chauncey Washington, Barry Richardson, John Sullivan

It’ll be interesting to see what becomes of Washington. It shouldn’t be forgotten that it took injury and luck for Ryan Grant to finally start. Washington is six feet under the Jags depth chart and will have to do everything right in training camp, preseason and make an impact on special teams to even make the roster. Kinda stupid, really. Richardson was once considered a first round talent. I still don’t know why he fell so far. Sullivan is a fine center if you accept that’s all he’ll ever be.

Grade: C

That’s a prove-it-to-me "C". I don’t like picks whose hype trumps their accomplishments. I’d rather one that I know will contribute, not one with a cool nickname, good quote, good story and raucous nightlife. I think Schmitt’s got a shot, a shot to be real good, but I’m not convinced. And I certainly don’t see how fullback trumps offensive tackle, wide receiver, center or linebacker for upgrade over existing talent. It seems like Ruskell has been chasing a fullback forever. Leonard Weaver may not be the blocker Schmitt is, I don’t know not having seen much of Schmitt, but I’d imagine he’s a better rusher and receiver. For those who argue that it’s the fifth round and nabbing a starter at all is something, one, Schmitt’s a fullback, and, two, there’s no guarantee he’ll start. Nevertheless, despite my profuse critiques, I want Schmitt to succeed. I like the guy and his potential as a blocker definitely exceeds Weaver’s.

Pick 189: Tyler Schmitt

Best Value: Washington, Jonathan Hefney, Ali Highsmith

This would have been a hell of a time to grab depth at safety and linebacker.

Grade: B+

Anything great ever done was once heckled, and for a second I’ll impersonate the mob. Every team in college employs a long snapper of some kind. This summer, literally dozens will graduate and nearly every one would sell their siblings into slavery for a shot at the NFL. Schmitt might be the greatest long snapper ever born, with a mechanized arm and a laser guided sight in his ass, but he still isn’t that much more valuable than any one of those dozens who won’t require a draft pick. It’s inconceivable, as in outside the limits of my imagination, that Schmitt will do anything so extraordinary for Seattle’s special teams to merit this pick.

Back to me. In the NFL, serviceable talent at linebacker and safety can be signed through free agency. Those players are almost without exception better than the talent available in the 6^th round. San Diego State had only 13 punt returns despite punting the ball 73 times. They’re punter isn’t considered a special talent and like most fringe 1-A teams, they’re special teams isn’t particularly stacked. Regardless of his position, Schmitt is a talent that simply would not be available outside of the draft. Every year, games are won and lost because of special teams play – and not just the flash. Sound punts, good holds, good directional kicking and clutch field goals. This pick is about stocking Seattle’s roster with top talent at every position. Last season, the DVOA difference between the league’s top special teams, the Bears (9.1%), and the league’s worst, the Colts (-6.1%), equaled the DVOA difference between the Cowboys rushing attack (5.3%) and the Seahawks (-9.9%). Chew on that. Remember, everyone derides the kicker, punter, long snapper, until they need him.

Pick 233: Justin Forsett

Best Value: Highsmith, Hefney, Kirk Barton

Highsmith signed with the Cardinals. Cuntishy buncha Buzzsaw mothe…

Grade: B+

I like Forsett. Some might think calling him a very late career Edgerrin James is a slight, but I disagree. James can play and Forsett retains a good bit more speed. It’ll be interesting to see what the pint-sized power back can do in the preseason. The simple fact that his game should translate elevates him above the Marquis Weeks and Reggie Bushes of the world. Rescued of regular duty, he might even see an uptick in speed.

Pick 235: Brandon Coutu

Best Value: See Above

Grade: B-

I maintain convinced that Coutu is not an improvement over Olindo Mare. But I understand insuring against a collapse. Collectively, Mare and Coutu gives Seattle a very good shot at a very good kicker. That’s nothing to scoff at. I just wish it didn’t cost a pick that could have been used elsewhere.

Final Grade: A

My initial grade was an "A-". I decided that I’d drop that a whole letter grade if Seattle failed to sign an offensive tackle. I think now that Seattle really just needs depth at tackle and that doesn’t require a draft pick. Now, if I were drafting, I would have found a developmental tackle somewhere. That’s not an appropriate way to evaluate a draft, though. The closest thing to a peer Walter Jones has is probably Willie Roaf. Roaf played at a very high level until he was 36. Should Jones plateau at his current ability, that would give Seattle 3 more seasons of stability at the blindside. Maybe by then Will Robinson will look more like a tackle than a tight end. Anyway, depth at tackle can be acquired through free agency, or, and this will sound absurd coming from me, Floyd Womack should he join the cause and hit the weight room. He’s only 29.

My final grade is an "A". My reasoning is really quite simple. Seattle was able to attain 3 first round talents, a high upside fullback, a can’t miss long snapper, a pro able running back and strengthen their kicking game. Lawrence Jackson was so good for so long he became a bit of a forgotten man at USC. I believe his intelligence and total package athleticism could propel him into the upper echelon of defensive ends in the NFL. Aaron Kampman/Jared Allen territory. Where another team might have seen defensive end as a non-need, with their starting ends combining for 21.5 sacks in 2007, Seattle correctly evaluated Kerney’s probability of decline and Tapp’s potential as a non-starter regular. In the second round Seattle drafted a surefire first round talent whose stock had been devalued for all the wrong reasons. Antonio Gates couldn’t have produced on Notre Dame’s miserable excuse for an offense. Carlson wasn’t just the best talent at tight end in this draft, he’s the most talented tight end to enter the NFL since Heath Miller. Holmgren never needed a top tight end to get production out of the position, but I’m excited to see what he can do now that he has one. Red Bryant might be wasted on almost any other team in the NFL. The gee-shucks kid from places small and dusty could have been a Bengal or, God forbid, Cowboy. Another wasted 4^th round pick. But in Seattle, with a class bunch of guys, Bryant’s silly athleticism - a little greater than what Kentwan Balmer is fabled to possess - will be alloyed with a peerless strength and conditioning program and honed by great coaches and the good kind of peer pressure. Owen Schmitt has much to prove and somewhat suspect athleticism, but venerable work ethic and epic ferocity. I’m not sure Seattle needed him, but hope he proves me foolish for doubting. Tyler Schmitt might just be a long snapper, but repeat that to me when the Hawks are wracking up safeties. Justin Forsett will be around long after faster, more hyped backs have faded and Brandon Coutu could be everything you want in a kicker, cheap with a strong leg. Like last year, it’s not how I would have drafted, but then, it’s better.

Clare Farnsworth has substantiated what Frank Hughes originally reported, Bobby Engram is unhappy with his contract. Instead of worrying about his motivations, I thought I’d look into his impact on Seattle’s passing offense. Here’s my method, simple enough. In 2006, Engram contributed in 8 contests, including two playoff games, and missed 9 contests. From that 9, I removed all snaps helmed by Seneca Wallace leaving 4 ½ games. I also scratched week 15 as it was Engram’s first game back. The question is, how well did Seattle do in net yards per pass attempt in those 8 contests compared to their opponent’s typical NY/PA versus how well did they do in those 4 ½ contests in NY/PA attempt compared to their opponent’s typical NY/PA? Pretty simple, well let’s see.

With Bobby Engram

NY/PA: 5.88

Expected NY/PA: 5.89

Percentage: 100%

Without Bobby Engram

NY/PA: 6.41

Expected NY/PA: 6.16

Percentage: 104%

So the Seahawks passing attack actually improved slightly without Engram. Why is that? Well, it’s not an improvement enough to herald church bells, but it might be simply that Holmgren’s been squeezing value out of the slot before Engram ever signed. In 1999, Mike Pritchard averaged 14.4 yards per catch on 26 receptions. In his time in Green Bay, Holmgren found life in Derrick Mayes, Bill Schroeder and Don Beebe. Not to sound like a broken record, but it’s important not to credit the player for the system. There’s a reason Holmgren has consistently produced top passing attacks with but a handful of name wide receivers.

I like Bobby Engram. He does what is asked of him and does it well. I find it a touch disingenuous when athletes talk about money equaling respect, but were Engram a top receiver, I could understand his beef. As is, he’s a systems player, albeit a fine one, that’s 35, coming off a career high in receptions and locked into a contract that probably isn’t too far from his actual value. I want to have your back here Bobby, but I think $1.7 million is just going to have to do.

Julian Peterson

Stats

Highlights

Lowlights

Outlook

TBA

*Includes all games minus Week 10, Divisional Round and the second half of Week 3 and the first half of week 1.

Highlights

9/9/07

The most interesting sequence of the first half came on Tampa Bay's final two drives. In both of them Seattle employed a 3-3 nickel formation where Julian Peterson can become a fourth down lineman effectively turning the play into a 4-2. That's the crucial aspect of the 3-3, that Peterson has options. On all six plays Peterson eventually put his hand down and rushed the passer, but he mixed in a lot of stances and motion to disrupt the left tackle. In the first set, the more pertinent one since the other involved Cadillac Williams running out the clock on some questionable play calls, Patrick Kerney played the right end position, but became a de facto tackle once Peterson put his hand down. Couple this with Bernard at left tackle and Tapp manning the left defensive end and the Bucs have to contend with four really devastating pass rushers and two ends (Tapp, Peterson) that are skilled in short zone coverage. The shear number of options this formation engenders must have made line calling a tremendous headache for John Wade.

In the first play under this formation, Peterson shows just awesome recognition, finally committing to a three point stance just as Garcia is about to snap. Excellent pre-snap recognition by Muscley Arm. After the snap Bernard gets great pressure up the gut, Garcia fades to his left and is met by a charging Peterson on the edge rush: Sack. The next play starts almost the same way, but Peterson grandstands a little less and aligns himself as a pass rusher a little earlier. Instead of a sack, Garcia connects to Michael Pittman for a six yard dump off. Peterson once again is deadly around the edge, but instead of Bernard's pressure coming up the gut, he's redirected around to the offensive left side. The resulting gap to the right leaves Garcia a place to step up and a throwing lane to pass through. What's really interesting beyond the simple coolness of this formation is that these two plays were nearly identical but one resulted in a sack and one resulted in a completion. Peterson gets similar edge rush on both plays, but in one Bernard collapses the pocket's head pin and the other he's shuffled to the left. Bernard's dominance on the first play caused the Bucs to smartly assign another man to him and the resulting Forced Double Team actually benefits the Bucs. Just an exciting display of strategy, counter-strategy and how one player who is credited with recording no conventional stats on either play (Bernard) made all the difference between a sack and a completion.

10/21/07

3-3 Nickel again, this time Peterson is playing down lineman. First play, Saint Louis's next drive. Peterson has the pass rush ability of an elite defensive end, but he's not and that's an important distinction and here's why. The Rams are pinned within their twenty, this is screen and draw country. The Rams call the former, Peterson edge rushes, but Alex Barron retreats, never putting a block on him. It's a classic suck-up, get the line deep and then dish the ball behind them screen. Peterson reads this, breaks his rush and pulls into a short zone directly in front of Brian Leonard. It all happens so fast, a split second read an' react, and Bulger not wanting to give away the play never looks until he's thrown the ball right to Peterson. Interception, the Hawks score two plays later, Julian Peterson rocks the funk right from my socks.

1/5/08

Two plays later Peterson gives Fabini his paralysis stare, then runs untouched to Collins for a sack.

The very first play of the [4th] quarter, touchdown pass to Antwan Randle El, involved some pretty cool under the radar play by Julian Peterson. At the snap, he gets a real nice push on Chris Samuels, jumps, and by jumping blocks Collins’ passing lane, comes back to earth, pushes Samuels back again and then gets around the Pro Bowl tackle and provides pressure. Peterson’s value added as a nickel defensive end is another reason that he’s among Seattle’s least replaceable players.

Lowlights

9/16/07

I hate questioning the character of a team, but Seattle made some obvious mental mistakes. Both Sean Locklear and Rob Sims simply gave up on blocks after Matt Hasselbeck couldn't find an open receiver. That's unacceptable. Sims' turned into a sack, Locklear's a throw away. Couple that with blown assignments by Julian Peterson and Marcus Trufant and fans have a right to be pissed with the team's showing. Both blown assignments turned into touchdowns, Peterson biting on a play-fake and leaving Leonard Pope wide open for a score.

11/18.07

Second play of the drive, following a 7 yard reception by Greg Olsen, Hawks in a base package. Benson starts hard left on a run that looks to be off tackle. The Hawks surge right, stuffing the rush lane. Sounds good, right? Here's the problem, a cutback lane as large as an elephant's ass has opened to the right. Benson is not quick out of his cuts, and had the Seahawks backside containment, it's unlikely this rush would have gone more than 5 yards. Unfortunately, Peterson, instead of staying put, tracks motion man Muhsin Muhammad dangerously close to the middle, then attempts to split the line for the money tackle for a loss, gets held in what might be called a bracket block (that is, the guard put an arm on Pete's back and another on his sternum and held him very briefly) and is out of the play. Bad move. Benson cuts back right, behind the Hawks line and now has but two defenders to beat. Tru is blocked down by Bernard Berrian (great block) leaving only Russell in his way to the endzone. This, presumably, is why you have a free safety. The play has broken down, the opposing rusher is free with acreage ahead of him, it's time to do your best Bob Sanders and fill. Russell has, somehow, tracked the run left too, perhaps looking for one of his patented after the fact pile on tackles. That's his first mistake, but it's recoverable. Then, instead of simply putting his body between Benson and the endzone, he overshoots towards the line. Benson doesn't have much more to do than run right at Tru and into the endzone. Peterson blows his assignment, but Russell's pursuit angle and Berrian's downfield blocking make it a score.

11/25/07

Peterson had an abnormally quiet half. The first time I really noticed him was when he was chasing Bruce after an 11 yard completion. Not many linebackers can match against Bruce, but the play still nets Peterson a blown coverage.

Outlook

Peterson turns 30 July 28th. That might seem troubling, but he possesses the profile of a late bloomer, or, minimum, a graceful decliner. Though Peterson wasn’t always at the center of the action, he is undoubtedly among the least replaceable talents on the Seahawks’ roster. His versatility and ability to provide top-tier edge rush in nickel formations powers Seattle’s venerable 3-3. It’s entirely reasonable to count on Peterson to produce at a similar level in 2008 as he did in 2006 and 2007, but it’s not impossible that as the exceptionally quick and athletic linebacker enters his peak power years, he might actually step up another level - From superstar to legend.

I thought it worthwhile to post a brief compendium of Tubbs' injuries. It’s that time of year when speculation is rampant, so instead of discussing Tubbs’ size or his lonely days in the weight room, I thought it better to stick to facts. Here’s where we stand.

Bumps and Bruises

2004

Before his injuries turned to the severe, Tubbs suffered his share of nagging, minor injuries. Tubbs first appeared on the injury report September 8^th of 2004, his rookie season. Strike one was a hamstring. He appeared in weeks 2-10 and then started weeks 11-13. In week 13, in the closing minutes of the 4^th quarter, Tubbs was carted off the field with an ankle injury. In the subsequent drive, Julius Jones rushed for 44 yards on 4 carries, including the game winning touchdown on a draw play. This was the first hint at the "Tubbs Effect". Tubbs’ ankle would force him to miss the remainder of the season.

2005

In 2005, Tubbs started 11 games and played in 13. He missed weeks 10-12 with a strained left calf. Tubbs did not start in weeks 14 or 15 and throughout the playoffs, but had many of his most effective games coming off the bench, recording 4 sacks in weeks 13-17.

The Deterioration of Tubbs’ Left Knee

2006

Tubbs missed week 4 after having arthroscopic surgery on his inflamed left knee. He would return in week 6, following the bye. At the time, Tubbs was considered to have enjoyed a “speedy recovery”. He was effective in the next contest, recording half a sack and helping to limit stud back Steven Jackson to just 2.8 yards per carry. But after an ineffective week 7, Tubbs was back on the injury report. This time, it was no bump or bruise. Tubbs had suffered torn cartilage in his left knee. Taken from Wikipedia, microfracture surgery is:

And:

A recipient can recover in as little as 4 months, though anecdotal evidence indicates the true recovery period to be closer to 2 years. The traits that best correlate with recovery are youth and a commitment to rehabilitation.

Tubbs’ Torn ACL

2007

Tubbs returned midway through the 2007 preseason. He appeared against the Vikings and started against the Raiders. Tubbs tore his ACL attempting to fight off a block by Jeremy Newberry. This is conjecture, mind you, but I’ve watched the play dozens of times now, and I believe he was protecting his left knee. The injury occurred when Tubbs attempted to fight off Newberry’s block, standing entirely on his right leg. At the time, Frank Hughes reported that Tubbs’ ACL tear was potentially career threatening, but ACL tears, especially one’s without damage to cartilage or support structures, are almost never career threatening. It is among the most studied, projectable and if such a thing is possible, routine injuries in the NFL.

Analysis

Marcus Tubbs is injury prone. His health, or lack thereof, may forever relegate him to backup duties. It may end his career. However, neither his more recent ACL tear nor his previous cartilage tear are untreatable or even very exotic. Each injury has a reputable and well researched treatment and each treatment has a high degree of success. Tubbs, because of his age and commitment to rehabilitation, has two of the most important assets to successful recovery. His more serious left knee injury is nearly 2 years removed from treatment, a period anecdotal evidence suggests is required for full recovery. Tubbs recent arthroscopic surgery was minimally invasive and relatively routine for a patient recovering from an ACL graft. Nevertheless, Tubbs most be monitored for inflammation of his right knee, a sign that further, previously undetected, damage, even cartilage damage, is possible. Will Carroll once stated that injuries have a sort of inertia. Healthy players tend to stay healthy and injured players tend to suffer reinjury and new injuries. Tubbs has miserable injury inertia. Still, while Tubbs will forever be a high injury risk, he should enter the 2008 season recovered, healthy and ready to contribute.

On February 28^th, the San Diego Chargers cut Shane Olivea. On November 29^th Olivea lost the starting RT job to Jeromey Clarey. Both tackles are young and former late round picks, 7^th and 6^th respectively. Not too long back, Olivea was considered part of the Chargers’ young core, but amidst reports that he had badly regressed the past season and a half, Olivea fell from the organization’s and particularly Norv Turner’s good graces. I’m willing to bet against Turner when it comes to talent evaluation. What’s surprising, though, is that Olivea is still a free agent.

Whatever’s wrong with Olivea, it doesn’t show up in his pass blocking stats. In his first three seasons in the league, Olivea allowed 4.5, 5 and 5.75 sacks in 16, 15 and 16 games started. Pretty steady. In 2007, Olivea allowed 3 sacks in 10 games started. He didn’t record a single hold - charged with only 2 in his entire career - and was penalized for just 1 false start. Holmgren is known to stress penalty avoidance by his offensive line, and I must think that Olivea’s impressive discipline would be at home in Mike’s system.

His run blocking, is, eh, less impressive. In his first 3 seasons, the Chargers were consistently top 10 rushing around right tackle. In 2007, they were among the league’s worst, 29^th.

I don’t have any video of Olivea handy, but gather from wending through various Chargers sites that fans felt he was doggin’ it. That’s a pretty common accusation when a player unexpectedly looks worse, and no one can provide a real explanation as to why. Olivea played with a bit of a gimpy back, and his right side mate, Mike Goff, could have taken that toboggan like decline ho-hum players often take in their early 30s. Also, lest my eyes deceive me, LaDainian Tomlinson is no longer the back he once was. Still, that Olivea is in the midst of a sudden, very early retirement is curious, minimum.

I won’t go as far as say I endorse Seattle signing Olivea. The front office certainly has a better feel for who the young man really is, and what he’ll do to get back in the game than I do. But, for a team tackle deficient, and again employing Porkchop Womack, it should be considered. The hope for Womack is that the new regime demands the forever talented and forever out of shape utility offensive lineman to do enough conditioning, lifting and prep to be a serviceable tackle. Maybe Olivea doesn’t give a damn. I’ve long held the belief that the supposed “contract push” is an entirely different beast in the NFL. Playing MLB or the NBA might be long and strenuous, provoking certain athletes to fight for that first big payday and then chill, but players in the NFL are quite literally sacrificing their bodies. Linemen, especially, are doing irreparable damage to their knees, likely their backs…and one couldn’t judge too harshly the frankly prudent decision one might make to fight for that first contract and then get out while you can walk. That’s why I love the One Percenters, the fringe, the Owen Schmitt’s, who love every brutal moment, body be damned. Maybe Olivea knows better.

Red Bryant is a reclamation project. When he’s off, he looks unfixable – not even scraping pro-caliber. When he’s on, he looks interesting, talented, but no where as good as you’d expect. His development is instantly the story of the preseason. Bryant is either going to get it, take to Seattle’s coaching and begin to translate some of his immense talent into production or he’s going to flop. Off the roster, flop.

I started by watching Bryant and Texas A&M duke it out with Texas. I was aghast. Bryant looked just awful. He was slow, slow off the snap, slow in stunts and slow to the ball carrier, the few times he was anywhere near the ball carrier. I couldn’t believe my eyes. “Why would any team draft Bryant?” I thought, and especially “Why would a team that puts so much stake in production draft Bryant?” He was weak, washed out by single blocks, incapable of splitting double teams and generally outclassed by his linemates, college fodder like Henry Smith and Kellen Heard. Most troubling, though, he was lazy, giving up if losing off the snap, coasting against double teams and eventually off the field entirely.

God bless condensed games. Second, I watched the Aggies battle the Oklahoma Sooners. The Sooners have a decent offensive line, headlined by money left guard Duke Robinson. Bryant plays primarily out of the 3, catawampus to Robinson. Suddenly, Bryant is alive. Showing a cool shake and bake stutter step, getting inside and outside advantage and disrupting plays. He’s holding or splitting double teams, firing off the snap, fighting his way back into plays and looking for once like an NFL prospect. As the game wore on, and the score grew lopsided, Bryant’s fire sputtered. One play on, two plays off. Two plays off, one series on the sideline. But my hope was rekindled.

Onto Miami. Bryant starts strong but fades. By halftime, Miami is up 24-0. Masquerading as an Aggies fan, I must say, what an awful, joyless and discouraging team. Their top talent, presumably Martellus Bennett, has all the pizzazz of Randy McMichael and jumps like he’s attached to the turf by rubber bands. I’m starting to see a story develop. The team captain, the NFL talent on a team full of scrubs, reeled in for his senior season, because of loyalty, duty, a degree and one more shot at the top with the boys. Crushed. By an absent coach and barely mediocre team.

So I thought I’d hop back to the past. Texas A&M’s second contest and first against a team worth a damn, Fresno State. Fresno finished 13^th in unadjusted offensive FEI and Scout.com calls the line its strength. The Aggies entered 1-0 after stomping a big 38-7 bootprint into Montana State. “We’re a contender!" spirit soaring, Coach Fran not yet depantsed, huzzah! And huzzah is right, because Bryant looks awesome: Exploding single blocks, cleaving doubles, working the right defensive end on three man fronts and playing like a pro prospect among fodder, scrubs and jobbers. Bryant finished with his lone big statistical showing of the season: 6.5 total tackles, 1 solo tackle for a loss and 1 sack.

I started this morning intending to write a scouting report, but 6 hours and 4 condensed games later, I realize it would be pointless. The player Bryant is and the player that Bryant could be do not exist in the same dimension. One is cripplingly inconsistent and so bad when he’s off the Arena League would scoff. That one limped from a failed season, through an embarrassing showing at the Senior Bowl (most noteworthy for a macho slapfest with Chris Williams) and into the combine, where the man who should have killed the bench posted just 20. The other better show up fast at mini-camp. The Seattle Seahawks have a reclamation project on their hands. One with a huge frame, silly quicks and once-upon-a-time rare upside. Over the next few months, Bryant is worth scouring the local fish wraps for. What are the coaches saying? Is John Marshall sanguine, Dwaine Board impressed, is everyone hush-hush or a-gush about LoJack or Owen Schmitt? And when the preseason comes, good news or bad, I’ll be glued to the tube, hoping Joseph “Red” Bryant has begun that long path back to being a top defensive tackle, because, man, that would be something to see.

Unfortunately, I can’t find any quality video on Owen Schmitt. So for now, this is what I can do.

The Man

Owen Schmitt was born in Virginia but grew up in Wisconsin. In high school, both Paul VI Catholic and later Faifax, Schmitt, like most special talents, played all over the field. Schmitt didn’t receive much attention upon graduating. It’s pretty clear why, he’s bad stout, thick in the wrong places, and in the aesthetics driven world of scouting and recruiting, Schmitt’s body, grades and play screamed Division 3 A. So that’s where he went.

Schmitt signed with Wisconsin River-Falls, a program as prestigious as its name implies. You may be familiar with the Falcons’ surrounds from the HBO documentary Hard Knocks. There he played fullback in the programs wishbone offense. After dominating, amassing 1,063 yards his freshman season in only nine starts, Schmitt had little left to prove, much less accomplish.

The Myth

Unlike most future pros, Schmitt didn’t possess an unflappable belief in his abilities.

Former walk-on, Mountaineers Coach Rich Rodriguez disagreed.

Schmitt sat for a season, per NCAA rules, but his play on West Virginia’s scout team ruled out him staying there. The next season, coach Bill Stewart found a place to play him.

Stewart’s big play ability, old school attitude, weight lifting prowess and legendary toughness made him a college football cult icon.

Schmitt’s legend included Volkswagen lifting, coaster eating, playing baseball with a broken hip and the destruction of 10 facemasks. West Virginia fans gushed, writing poems in his honor, naming their dogs "Owen Schmitt", and even crying alongside him when he played his final game with the Mountaineers. Every Day Should Be Saturday’s Orson Swindle opined:

And after this particularly touching display:

Eulogized Schmitt’s college career thusly:

The Seahawk

Schmitt introduced himself to the NFL at the 2008 Senior Bowl. His ruthless play and body sacrificing style provoked current Carolina Panther and 2007 Bednarik winner Dan Connor to quip:

And Pro Football Weekly Reported:

Schmitt was one of three fullbacks invited to the annual NFL Scouting Combine. There he posted impressive numbers, especially for a fullback.
40: 4.73
Bench: 26
20: 4.18
3-Cone: 6.98

Schmitt’s bench might have been most surprising for how low it was. The power-lifting megaman is known to have cleaned 425 pounds an astounding 8 times. His max clean is over 5 bills and his squat 625. In a league where the phrase "built like a shit brick house" is thrown around, Schmitt is built like a brownstone, made of muscles, forged by Hephaestus's hammer. It’s hard to know if his game will translate, but legendary Niners lead blocker Tom Ratham believes he has everything you can want in a fullback.

What I want in a fullback is a man who will wake up the day after, sore as hell and suddenly rich, forget it all and get back to work. A fullback who savors the block. A man who plays like he's fighting for survival, because somewhere in the dark recesses of his psyche, he is. Schmitt is something special. Real-tough, fiercely loyal and true-humble. No matter how his career plays out, I'm proud he's a Seahawk.

Sources:

WVU.edu

MSN Sports Net

Pro Football Weekly

Ever Day Should Be Saturday

Washington Post

Skills are broken down from a ++ to --. ++ are complete skills, pro ready. -- are glaring weaknesses. The kind of faults that can fell an otherwise top talent.

++

n/a

+

Second Gear: Fleet 3-10 yards from the line of scrimmage.

Break Tackle: By no means overpowering, but strong, keeps his legs moving and decidedly slippery. Tough to tackle, and able to quickly separate from defenders after breaking a tackle.

Discipline: Takes what is given. Doesn’t dance. Doesn’t take risky cutbacks.

Vision: Moves well through traffic. Reads second level defenses well and squirts through multiple linebackers.

0

First Gear: Adequate speed to get to the hole.

Agility/Cutting: Good feet, decent moves in the open field. Not explosive out of cuts.

Pass Blocking: Hardy pass blocker. Good repertoire. Occasionally gets run over or around.

-

Receiving: Competent, at best. Not a reliable receiver at anything but screens and flats. Catches the ball in his body. Decent redirect.

Third Gear: Virtually no ability to run away from defenders. Benefited  from outside blitzes, surprise draws and opposing defenses keying the pass. 11 runs of 20+ yards in 305 attempts.

Health: Plays hard, but gets hit hard. Absorbs a ton of impact. Plays like a power rusher.

Ball Security:

--

n/a

Summary: Forsett is definitely more skilled than talented. He played well against top rush defenses and it’s reasonable to think his game will translate to the pros. Unfortunately, he’s not particularly fast or elusive and his power rusher mentality opens him to a good deal of abuse. He rushes a bit like a very late career Edgerrin James.

Grade: C-

Mild downside.

Game should translate.

Slow, moderately agile.

Maxed out his skill set.