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Around SBN: Knicks Beat Lakers With Familiar Strategy

Holmgren's gonna show you how. How he runs starters, sure, runs them into the ground.

Yep.

Consider:

(Since 1997)

Winning Percentage of Team's Following a Wildcard Bye: .725

Point Differential: 391+

Where's the lost momentum?

The only thing than can be accomplished on Sunday is injury.

Update: I figure a lot of people are saying "okay, smartass, then who would you start?" So, in answer to that:

Offense

LT: Sean Locklear
LG: Rob Sims
C: Chris Spencer
RG: Porkchop Womack
RT: Ray Willis
WR1: Nate Burleson
WR2: Ben Obomanu
WR3: Courtney Taylor
WR4: Deion Branch
TE: Will Heller
QB: Seneca Wallace
FB: Leonard Weaver
RB: Maurice Morris

Defense

RE: Baraka Atkins
NT: Brandon Mebane
DT: Ellis Wyms
LE: Jason Babin
ROLB: Leroy Hill
MLB: Niko Koutouvides
LOLB: Will Herring/Lance Laury
CB1: Jordan Babineaux
CB2: Kevin Hobbs
FS: Deon Grant
SS: Mike Green

First, plenty of teams play their starters on special teams. I see no reason the scrubs can't take on double duty for one game.

Locklear has the skills to be a left tackle, and played the position in the preseason. Sims and Spencer are young, and could use the experience. Though I'm logically opposed to the notion that a team or player is somehow going to gain an ability in the last game of the season they were not able to gain in the previous 15-18 (including preseason). Give old man Gray a freakin' puff. Willis is healthy and it's about time Seattle sees what they have in their young right tackle.

Shaun should be given goal line carries only and no more than 10. Wallace starts, that's a no brainer. No Hasselbeck = No shot in the playoffs. Nate Burleson starts at flanker, but no return duties. The Hawks have excellent depth at WR, work the young guys. See what they can do. Branch is the default #4, he should see 8+/- snaps. Obviously, you rest Pollard. You rest Engram. Weaver stays in, another young guy who could "learn some things" or whatever.

I'm much more aggressive subbing guys on defense. The Hawks nonexistent rushing attack has put a ton of stress on the D. They've faced more plays than all but five teams. Plus, defensive injuries are more common. Plus, plus, the Hawks have excellent depth on D. No way Kerney should see the field for a second on Sunday, but since that's unavoidable (Dude, rightly, wants the sack crown) play him only on third downs. Mebane was played sparingly in the first 5 contests, and should be fine. Leroy Hill is subbed out a ton, so shouldn't have a ton of wear on his tread. Tats has been wearing down, spending an alarming amount of time on the sidelines. He's a big hitter in a small body, and should be given time to rest up. Julian Peterson is irreplaceable and should be played sparingly. Deon Grant can play free safety where the chance of injury is much lower. That gives Brian Russell a chance to heal up. Both cornerbacks are indispensable. Jennings and or Josh Wilson should play nickelback. Preserve Tru at all costs. Zero snaps.

This team probably doesn't win, but who cares? Every indispensable player is protected, the depth isn't strained, a few young players who need it get additional starting snaps, and a few question marks who may or may not be with the team next year (Babin, Willis, Green, Hobbs, Babs) get a chance to show what they can do. Plus, key starters are rested. Gray, Alexander, Jones and Tats all could be expected to play better after a week off.

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curiosity
What is the home Wild Card team %?
formerly captain morgan

by Will Kier on Dec 26, 2007 7:03 PM PST reply actions  

I compiled that all freehand from PFR
So, you can see for yourself, if you want. I can tell you this, if you started from a baseline of 300 points scored and 300 points allowed, a .500 team, and then took the average margin of victory of teams following the bye, 9.775 (we'll round that up to 10 for simplicity's sake), and played out a 16 game schedule, subtracting 5 points from the points allowed, and adding 5 points to the point scored, so that you're ending team was 380 and 220, you're Pythagorean win percentage (PF^2.37/PF^2.37 + PA^2.37) is .785 or a 12-4 to 13-3 team. Considering that's a contender playing a contender, that's pretty lopsided, and certainly better than the record of all teams versus other contenders, when playing at home, for the season. In fact, a much better argument can be made that a team benefits from taking a week off rather than that a team loses momentum.

Conventional wisdom be damned, Holmgren is making a mistake riding his starters.

by John Morgan on Dec 27, 2007 10:06 AM PST up reply actions  

Holmgren
is sort of right in this situation. On the other hand, I wouldn't be surprised if the Falcons win.
Coming up on Showtime, it's Shaun of the Dead.

by SSreporters on Dec 26, 2007 7:38 PM PST reply actions  

Please explain...
Personally, I would like to see starters for a quarter only. Especially so that Hacks can get worked back into the offense. I'd like to see Jones in street clothes. I'd like to see very little of Branch (he seems fragile and very instrumental to our post-season success). I would like to see what some of our 2nd and 3rd stringers can do. I think it could be especially helpful for Ruskell to see how his pieces are progressing. On the other hand, I would like our COACHES to call a mean game and make sure THEY don't lose any goddamn momentum. Our 2nd/3rd string can and should be able to handle this Falcons team. While they had a valiant showing against the Cards, talk about a disaster from the coaching and personnel (players) standpoint, which is actually kind of scary to me. Some of those loose cannons could be playing dirty bird, dirty. I think if we can have a nice drive capped by TD you pull the starters then. If there's no TD you let them have 2 drives.

After all, we have a quarterback that has been to the playoffs, what 5 times now? We have a WR that was a Super Bowl MVP. Our roster is veteran enough to not need the continuity that Holmgren seems to think they need.

by man on soap box on Dec 26, 2007 10:00 PM PST up reply actions  

The Roster
You can't just sit all the starters. Particularly at DB and LB. The second and third stringers are in the special teams unit and playing the same guys in every S/T and defensive snap is gonna get people hurt. You have about 25 'starters' (I'm including a punter, nickelback, etc.) and you can't get through the game without dipping into that group.

I don't quite get why there is the same discussion every year about playing starters in week 17. Its particularly annoying with regards to the NYG-Pats game.

These teams do it the same way every year and its the same in the preseason too. Starters start unless they were already playing injured. Depending on the flow of the game the playoff bound team sits their starters a few minutes into the second half.

Life is about compromise.  

ATL has to be gunning for a draft pick at this point and may be doing everything in their power to lose anyways.

 

by michaelfox99 on Dec 27, 2007 6:59 AM PST reply actions  

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