Deciphering the Skins D: The Secondary
I'm having a hell of a time making sense of the Washington Redskins defense. Let me explain my confusion to you, and then we'll do some specific player profiles. Defense is a considerably harder thing to get a grasp on in just a few games. And when you just don't really know something terribly well, it's better to not shoot your mouth off about it. Instead, I'll try and take you through my process and see if that's at all informative. Then I'll do my best to tell you what I know, however limited.
The Redskins finished the season with the 6th ranked defense overall, composed of the 7th ranked pass defense and the 11th ranked run defense. That's very good, and though I'm by no means beholden to Football Outsiders metrics, they're an excellent starting point. In 2006, with nearly the exact same personnel, the Washington Redskins had the 32nd ranked defense. That season they were ranked 32nd against the pass, too. The Skins three major additions this off season were Fred Smoot, Laron Landry and London Fletcher-Baker. I will talk about the first two in greater detail in a second. Their pass rush ranked dead last in 2006, and only managed to climb to 26th in 2007. That a team can have the 7th best pass defense in the NFL with the 26th ranked pass rush is strange in of itself, but it gets weirder...
The Skins lost two of their very best DBs, Carlos Rogers and Sean Taylor. Rogers was replaced by Fred Smoot and Taylor by Reed Doughty. Both appear to be inferior compared to their antecedents. That left them with this starting 4 in the secondary: Shawn Springs, Fred Smoot, Laron Landry and Reed Doughty. Springs is an excellent player, Landry looks talented and skilled, but Smoot and Doughty...
Smoot started 9 games as the #2 corner and yet, the Skins are excellent at defending #2 corners (-45.7 DVOA 2nd). Smoot is not a good corner. Smoot has never been a good corner, and against the Vikings in week 16, he was regularly beat by Troy Williamson. Smoot leaves tons of cushion, misjudges routes and has recorded 4 picks in the last 3 seasons. Smoot was twice replaced in Minnesota, and was signed by the Skins to play nickel.
Doughty doesn't look like he should be playing in the NFL. His lone solo tackle against the Vikings came when he made a nice read, shot the gap, tackled Adrian Peterson and hurt himself in the process. I could be wrong about the plucky 6th rounder out of division I-AA Northern Colorado, he certainly has the head and the heart, but the kid just looks too small and too fragile to stick on an NFL roster.
Springs is the class of the secondary. At 32, Springs doesn't have the closing speed he once had, but it's still above average. He's a sure tackler, but, above all else, he's just a smart, skilled corner. He rarely breaks coverage, knows when to fade off his man in anticipation of a deep route, has excellent field awareness - where the first down marker is, how to pin his receiver against the sideline, and how to break up a pass without drawing a flag. Springs doesn't have the ball skills he once had, despite his 4 picks. His interception against the Vikings, like his teammate Smoot's, was a gimmie INT gift-wrapped by a badly struggling Tarvaris Jackson. Seriously, if you can't learn not to throw the ball while your being hit, your stay in the NFL is likely going to be very short.
Landry is an excellent young safety. He has both good quickness and excellent long strider's speed. Plus, he's tremendously athletic. The Skins deployed him ultra deep for most of the game against the Vikings, where, to television crews, he was essentially invisible. What I saw, from his ability to read the play to his overall athletic potential, makes me think he's a future star, and, perhaps, superstar. He needs some polish, but an occasional bad break on a ball is to be expected from a rookie.
It's not a collection of talent that screams dominant pass defense. It only further confuses the matters that the Skins have, seemingly, one top level pass rusher: Andre Carter. The run defense I can understand, but the Skins pass defense is an honest-to-god mystery. My mind and my eyes say it's just not that good, but DVOA begs to differ. I looked back at the Skins defense the week before they lost Carlos Rogers for the season and found that it was ranked 1st in all of football. By week 15, before the Skins played a hapless Tarvaris Jackson and a halfassed Cowboys squad, it had fallen all the way to 11th. That defense, minus two of its best players, that took a 1st placed ranking and dragged it down to 11th, that's the defense I see. And, I think, that's the defense that will take the field this Saturday.
. . .
This is all I have time for today. We'll finish strong tomorrow, looking over the rest of the Skins' D and profiling some important matchups.
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Comments
So, based on this,
Semi-questions:
-Is Springs going to be matched up on Branch?
-If Smoot plays the other corner, would it be a good strategy to employ Burleson as a wideout and run short, cross-type routes from there, to try and take advantage of the cushion Smoot apparently leaves?
-If Landry is playing ultra deep, Springs is tied up with Branch and Smoot plays with a cushion, does this look ripe for a big game from Engram for one of those 12-catches, 100 yards type of days?
-Going back to Smoot and his cushion, does it present a great opportunity to drop some screen pases to his side to Morris/Weaver?
by Matthew on Jan 3, 2008 1:43 PM PST 0 recs
Answers:
Smoot can be eaten up by all types of routes. I would worry more about getting him isolated one on one vs the Hawk receiver, be it Burly or Hacks.
Landry doesn't always play ultra deep, that was a special package designed to stop the Vikings rushing attack. The Skins rolled with a 4-4, 4 down linemen and 4 linebackers, for many snaps, and compensated by keeping Landry deep. I think Landry will play a more typical FS on Sunday.
The Skins are not particularly sound defending receiving backs. The only LB they have with much in the way of cover skills is London Fletcher. I think a few passes underneath, especially since Greg Williams loves to blitz, would be a great idea.
Beck has time in the pocket if Seattle can slow down the Skins blitzes. The Skins don't convert a ton of sacks, but they do generate pass rush. It's just that they usually need extra men to do it.
by John Morgan on
Jan 3, 2008 1:52 PM PST
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Re:
by Skin Patrol on
Jan 3, 2008 2:06 PM PST
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side = receiver
by John Morgan on
Jan 3, 2008 2:10 PM PST
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Re:
by Skin Patrol on
Jan 3, 2008 2:08 PM PST
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Lots of people criticize their D-Cord for not...
by John Morgan on
Jan 3, 2008 2:13 PM PST
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Blitzing
by Skinsmaniac on
Jan 3, 2008 2:28 PM PST
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Additionally...
by John Morgan on Jan 3, 2008 1:57 PM PST 0 recs
skins secondary
Gregg will give you a certain amount of underneath action (Engram, probably), but they will not be beat deep. The mustache will have a hard time finding open WR all day, especially with Carter in his face.
by mnskinsfan on Jan 3, 2008 2:04 PM PST 0 recs
My thoughts:
- Smoot. I think the statistics you cite suggest he's a good cornerback, yet that's not the conclusion you reach. He was "regularly" beaten by Troy Williamson to the tune of 5 catches for 39 yards, a long of 10 yards, and zero touchdowns. Williamson contributed with a dropped pass, but the top help should have been there and it wasn't. In the game in question, Smoot led the team in tackles and had the interception you mention. The Vikes averaged ~ 5 yards per pass attempt, which isn't very good. Fred Smoot was a very good cornerback in his first stint in Washington and has looked the same in his second, despite having a reduced role. He's been a huge reason why our defense is playing so well, as last year it would have been Kenny Wright or else Mike Rumph playing his position, and neither helped us accomplish much of anything.
- There is little question that Doughty is playing over his head right now, but small and fragile he is not. He lists just six pounds and an inch shorter than Deon Grant and 1 pound and 1 inch less than Brian Russell. He's played in every single Redskins game this year.
- Shawn Springs is a great cornerback and I think your analysis is pretty on. A word, though, on the interceptions. It is probably true for many/most players that if you went back and look at all their interceptions, you'd find some that were the result of a pressured quarterback. Teams that sack the opposing quarterback more tend to pressure them more, and since the Seahawks had more sacks than the Redskins it stands to reason that they pressured the opposing qb more. In my opinion, that doesn't take anything away from Marcus Trufant's 7 interceptions this year, and wouldn't even were I to find out that som of them came against hurried passers. As a matter of fact, they did: 2 of his picks came when the qb was pressured, one of them when the qb was knocked down.
- Landry, I think you are on here, as well.
Just off the top of my head, one strategy that has worked against the Redskins has been attacking the middle of the field as we do have a tendency to play extremely deep safeties to prevent the deep play. Beyond that, though, I think it is a very difficult secondary to play against with Smoot, Springs, and Landry on the field.
by Skin Patrol on Jan 3, 2008 2:04 PM PST 0 recs
A couple thoughts before I head out...
I think you are taking the whole season and averaging the numbers and producing projections that the Skins' current personnel can't match. I understand that the Skins are playing very hard, and I'm not trying to take anything away from them, and I admit that I just didn't see much of Doughty (though, to me, despite his similar #s to Grant, just did not look, physically, like NFL an capable talent), but I think Smoot and Doughty are so inferior to their predecessor's that any # drawn from the aggregate season, and not just the games they started, is going to be wildly inaccurate.
by John Morgan on
Jan 3, 2008 2:26 PM PST
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I'm aware he wasn't good in Minnesota
I'm not saying that Smoot was the most outstanding player on the field against Minnesota. However, I was not of the opinion after the game that Troy Williamson ran around Fred Smoot. Travaris Jackson may not be the best quarterback but we're talking about, at the absolute most, 3 passes that Jackson threw to Williamson that were uncatchable (since he was targeted 8 times and had 5 catches). That's presuming that Williamson wasn't to blame for bad routes or for dropping a pass.
I thought Smoot played fine. That's just one man's opinion, and I've been wrong before.
Carlos Rogers is gone, but he didn't start half the season. If he were the reason the Redskins season defense is so good in aggregate, there would have been a noticeable drop off in defensive production when he went out prior to the midway point of this year. This isn't the entire sample size, and the statistic isn't corrected for quality of opponents, but in the past four weeks we've allowed fewer passing yards per game (172) than we have on the season (214). Are we worse off because Rogers isn't in the game? Yes, but we've found ways to hide that. Are we worse off without Sean Taylor on the field? There can be no doubt. However, we've managed to play admirably in his absence.
The assumption above is that the Redskins defense is a reflection of personnel that is no longer around, those people being Sean Taylor and Carlos Rogers. The latter started fewer games than Fred Smoot (11 starts). Sean Taylor started in 9 games this year and is certainly responsible for much of our production, but we've played 7 games without him now and have done so quite admirably. Smoot entered the season as the starter, started in against Arizona in week 7. He hasn't played in exactly three games this year, and one of them was the 52-7 drubbing we were handed by the Patriots when they torched us for 306 yards in the air and 3 touchdowns. Incidentally, both Rogers and Taylor started in that game.
Summing up, I think you are right that we are a worse team defensively without Rogers and Taylor, but I don't think, statistically speaking, the evidence is there that this team dropped off substantially without those two players. We've managed to hide our weaknesses (for one, we moved Landry to FS and let Doughty play SS) and are much deeper at cornerback with Smoot in '07 than we were in '06. I would argue that we're much closer to being an honest reflection of our total season statistics in the secondary than you're suggesting. Again, JMO.
by Skin Patrol on
Jan 3, 2008 3:00 PM PST
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I agree with all of this
by Skinsmaniac on
Jan 3, 2008 3:09 PM PST
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PS
by Skinsmaniac on
Jan 3, 2008 3:19 PM PST
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Doughty
One of the reasons we do well statistically is that we are not giving up the big plays. Landry plays so deep, that it's difficult to get past him.
by Skinsmaniac on Jan 3, 2008 2:07 PM PST 0 recs
Not the best place to put this
Washington's run offense vs. Seattle's run defense
Let's start with the matchup of Stephon Heyer against Patrick Kerney. Kerney is a good speed rusher, but is undersized and can be taken advantage of against the run. Heyer has proven himself against some really good DEs, especially Michael Strahan who we know is a much better run defender than Kerney. However, I expect us to continue to run left (more on this later). Seattle's two tackles are no Pat and Kevin Williams. However, I expect the Skins to use the same approach against them. Al Saunders will attack the edges of the Hawks' defensive line in order to force the tackles to fight their way from side to side. Moving laterally will tire them and allow the Redskins to exploit the middle later in the game, much as they did against Minnesota. On the other side is Darryl Tapp, another undersized defensive end. Our Pro Bowl tackle, Chris Samuels should be able to handle him one-on-one.
I expect that we will continue to pull Fabini to the left where he can reach Seattle's second line of defense. FB Mike Sellers is one of the best blocking backs in the league and will account for another linebacker. Heyer need only slow Kerney enough to prevent him from pursuing Clinton Portis from behind. This will leave Casey Rabach and Pete Kendall one-on-one with Seattle's two defensive tackles. No doubt they will be able to make some plays, but by not running directly at them, the Skins will be able to wear them down and win the battles in the fourth quarter. Should Rabach and Kendall not be up to the task, expect Samuels to crack back on Brandon Mebane while our TE, either Chris Cooley or Todd Yoder, handles Tapp, possibly with help from Sellers.
Verdict: Seattle's undersized ends are a weakness I expect the Skins to exploit again and again, and will ultimately hurt their pass defense as well (more on this later).
by Skinsmaniac on Jan 3, 2008 2:14 PM PST 0 recs
Not bad.
For the record, though, the Skins weren't very successful on rushes around the ends vs the Vikings.
Portis: -4, 2, 3, 8, -1, 13, -3
Betts: 1
And the Hawks are actually better at defending rushes around the ends than the Vikings, what with our awesome linebackers and all.
Ya'all are going to make me late.
by John Morgan on
Jan 3, 2008 2:35 PM PST
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6th ranked defense
Now all of a sudden your having a hell of a time, your confused and its an honest to god mystery.
Now you dont want to believe the DVOA because your eyes and mind tell you differently, how convenient.
Again this is great if you want to hear mostly one side of a story. BUT CLEARLY there is no objectivety to it.
Other than that, great story.
by sincethebeginning on Jan 3, 2008 2:29 PM PST 0 recs
re:
Other than that, your comment still sucked balls.
by Franchise26 on
Jan 3, 2008 2:39 PM PST
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re: troll
by Franchise26 on
Jan 3, 2008 2:49 PM PST
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hey Skin Patrol
by Will Kier on Jan 3, 2008 2:35 PM PST 0 recs
Nice job but.....
by FarNorth on Jan 3, 2008 8:22 PM PST 0 recs











