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Should Seattle be Afraid of Ryan Grant?

You know, I don't know. I've spent the last 90 minutes attempting to figure that out and have drawn 0s. I've read that he's a downhill rusher and a cutback rusher. He was an outside rusher when he started but now works well between the tackles. He looks like Dorsey Levens and Deuce McCallister. He was on academic probation at Notre Dame and was a straight "A" student at Notre Dame. It's a lot of confusion and hogwash, really. In my very brief exposure to Grant I noticed he's tall, runs upright and may have some injury/fumble problems down the line. I'm not a fan of player to player comparisons, but I thought Grant looked a bit like Chris Brown of the Titans. He seemed to be a very good slasher, but not exceptional at breaking/avoiding tackles in the open field. The Hawks were very successful against Brown in 2005 with a very similarly designed defense, for whatever that's worth.

From a scouting standpoint, an upright slasher with some injury concerns is a pretty ideal running back matchup for the Hawks. The Hawks are ferocious tacklers that don't allow a lot of room between bodies for slashing types to exploit. But, then, that's on pretty limited viewing. If Grant is a cutback rusher, he certainly could give the Hawks trouble. We all know that Seattle is at its weakest when caught in over-pursuit. That's the Hawks style, gang-tackles, bodies on the ball-carrier, shoot the gaps and rely on your teammates to clean up your mistakes. That's also one of the reasons Seattle allows a lot of 10+ yard rushing plays. 24% of all runs, to be exact, 30th in the NFL. The Pack rushing attack creates runs of 10+ yard on 27% of all plays, 3rd in the NFL. That's not promising, for sure, but it's also not Grant. Grant first started in week 8, since that contest he's only rushed for 10 or more yards on 15% of all runs. Still, if Grant, who possesses 4.43/40 speed, gets into Seattle's third level he should have little trouble zipping past Brian Russell for the score.

Perhaps this post is a waste of time. It certainly doesn't come to any firm conclusions. I felt compelled to address Grant, but without knowing exactly what type of rusher he is, I can only say he's been highly productive (16.8% DVOA) in 188 runs, and may have the skill-set necessary to exploit Seattle's sometimes over-aggressive defense. Or he may just fumble all over Lambeau, get broken in two and be the latest in a long string of rushers hurt and disposed of by the Hawks heavy hitters.

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Be Afraid, Be Very Afraid
I keep waiting for Grant to struggle and it hasn't happened yet, although he was knocked out of the last game against Detroit with an injury Mike McCarthy didn't consider serious, but you never can trust coach speak.

He's a tall, Chris Brown/Dorsey Levens/Adrian Peterson-type runner, but those guys usually have trouble with fumbles while he is only credited with one fumble on the season. Favre was credited with two fumbles on handoffs to Grant during the season, but the defense had nothing to do with them so hopefully those two guys have worked it out.

Where Grant excels is on cutbacks. He's got great vision. The Packers have used the zone blocking scheme for the last two seasons under McCarthy and Grant runs like a Denver-style running back (one cut and go) should.

Seattle's run defense reminds me of Chicago's. That's not a knock, both teams had top five run defenses according to Football Outsiders. But Grant ran for 100 yards on 14 carries against Chicago in week 16 in below zero temperatures, and his big 66 yard TD run was when he ran right, then straight past a couple defenders, before he finally cutback left to a wide open field after Chicago overpursued.

He hasn't faced a lot of great run defenses this season, but he ran for over 100 yards against Chicago and Minnesota which are ranked 4th and 2nd respectively by Football Outsiders.

Bottom line disclaimer: I don't expect Grant will make the difference on Saturday. He will play a part and Seattle's linebackers might bite hard on play action, but I expect the winner will be the team that throws the ball better and has fewer turnovers.

Brandon

by Acme Packing Company on Jan 9, 2008 2:44 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Disagree
I disagree.  I think Grant is the difference in the game.  He's the only individual rusher to get over 100 yards against the Vikings.  Only LT had a better second half of the season.  Every coach on every level of football knows the best way to play defense is to keep the opposing offense on the bench.  That's done by rushing the ball.  The Packer's zone blocking scheme is extreemly effective against fast, agressive defenses (which describes the Hawks to a T).  The GBP will pass to open up the run, but the running game will be the difference here.  

by packfan on Jan 9, 2008 9:37 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

the best way to play defense
is by rushing the ball?

by Matthew on Jan 10, 2008 5:45 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Yes
It's hard to score when the other team has the ball (hence, defense).  

by packfan on Jan 10, 2008 8:39 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

You can do the same thing passing the ball.
Getting first downs is the way to keep the ball.
I reject your reality and substitute my own!

by Phildopip on Jan 10, 2008 8:49 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

If the clash of lines
looks like it did in the Washington game, he won't do much. When multiple defenders are meeting backs at the line of scrimmage or on the offensive side of the ball, O.J. couldn't do well.

I'm not sure I would refer to him as an upright runner. He drops his pad level and hits hard. Denver's Lynch got knocked out by him.

My impression is that he is pretty good at breaking tackles, quite good at avoiding tackles, very good at not fumbling and durable.

Since stats are the meat and potatos of the debate, he was the only runner to put up over 100 on the number one rated run defense of the Vikings. It wasn't done by pass first either. They came out running and punched 'em in the mouth.

The strategy in that game was pitching the ball and running off tackle. How does that strategy sound against the Hawks?

Other games, he has sort of an advantage because of mulitiple receiver sets that take a linebacker out of the line-up. They also run out of the power-I sometimes.

by olpete on Jan 10, 2008 9:56 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

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