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Jon Gruden: Genius of the Game Manager Quarterback

This is a brief look at Tampa's offense. We'll talk Monte Kiffen's still very Tampa 2 defense tomorrow. I know the Bucs have diverged a bit from the Dungy-era regimented Tampa 2 (Gasp! A blitz), but the foundation is still there and the underpinnings of Chuck Knoll, Bud Carson, Tony Dungy and Monty Kiffen's brainchild are still intact. This is brief because I'm blasted tired, apologies.

Midway through the 2007 season I internally rooted for two things: Mike Holmgren to retire, and the Bucs to crumble. Am I a "hater"? Well maybe, but I have no beef against that other pirate themed NFL team.  I wanted Jon Gruden to be fired, and Seattle to scoop up the man I think is the best coach in the NFL. He eludes the veneration of Bill Belicheck or Tony Dungy, but Gruden was never gifted a Tom  Brady or Peyton Manning. In fact, Gruden is the genius of game manager quarterbacks. Under him they are granted wisdom, accuracy and out of nowhere great seasons. Well not great, but great for the likes of Johnson, Johnson, Gannon, Griese, Simms and Garcia.

It's the offense baby. The current Nth version of the West Coast excels at taking steak`ums and making steak. In a way, Tampa's offense looks a bit like Seattle's was supposed to, modest but serviceable and supporting a great defense. The skill of the skill positions is concentrated in the running backs, but Tampa has a steady possession receiver with serious first down props. Ike Hilliard's 17 first downs in 23 receptions recall the Bobby Engram of 2001-2002.

The key is clever play calling and an offensive line that buys time even when allowing sacks. Under Jon Gruden, you may get sacked like Naples, but you will throw for an over 60% completion percentage. It's a curious system within which Brian Griese once completed almost 70% of his passes, and only blunderbuss-armed Jeff George truly defied its completion percentage boosting methodology. It's a curious system that creates statistical anomalies like 5.1 yards after the catch for a receiver that averages just 10.2 yards per catch. It's a curious system that creates statistical anomalies like a 70% reception percentage coupled with a -12.4 DVOA. Both anomalies belong to the notorious Michael Clayton. Howdeydodat? Routes that involve about 15 cuts over five yards. The receiver gets open; from there it's anyone's guess. That maximization of the receiver is a huge part of why Gruden's system works. The quarterback's aren't playing better, the receivers are, as evidenced by the high RAC.

Personally, I think it's kind of cool. Another mark of Gruden's system is multiple tight end formations. Of 46 tight ends with nine or more targets, Tampa Bay has three. Gruden passes early, 61% of all first half play calls in 2007, but runs late, passing on only 31% of all plays when holding the lead in the second half. Those runs are decidedly "powerful", featuring fullbacks and multiple tight ends. That need for a fullback, a full 64% of runs were from two back sets, has pushed 10 Million dollar man Earnest Graham to the position. Gruden rushes without bullshit, but passes with the bullshit and chicanery cranked to...7. Running formations result in passes, but passing formations rarely result in runs. Gruden ran on just 17% of all three WR single back sets, but passed on 69% of all two tight end, single back sets, last in the NFL. On the other end of the spectrum is ultra-orthodox play caller Dick Jauron, who passed on just 27% of all two tight end, single back sets.

The good news is that Seattle won't get smoked by Tampa's receiver and the Buc's closing strategy, a hotshot of runnin' the ball plays into Seattle's greatest defensive strength. Barring disaster, that should keep Seattle in it. Of course, that's assuming the Hawks escape Charlie Frye's Fangoria centerfold of sacks, picks and scrotal fistulas.

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his propensity to drop the ball has crushed any contributions he’s made after his Rookie season. It’s killed the coaches confidence in him, destroyed the fan bases confidence in him, and has to have effected his confidence as well….

The other issues is the constant shuffling at the QB position, despite the dropped passes, he’s been unable to get a rhythm going with his signal callers. Mix in a couple injuries due to being overly physical and Michael Clayton’s career has just spiraled. It’s amazing Gruden has stuck by him as long as he has and its a testament to how pathetic our depth is at the position.

Clayton has had drops this season, but his success has outweighed his short comings by far. He continues to be a fantastic blocker (ugh) and has caught the ball when he’s had space. He hasnt made up for the past three years, but at least he’s become serviceable this season….

Should be interesting to see how the market views him this off-season…

Buc 'Em - Where a select few of Bucs Fans spend their time...

by JScott on Oct 16, 2008 8:35 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

How bad is Charlie Frye?

I mean, seriously.

I’m not even really dogging the guy. It’s not like he violated my expectations. I didn’t think he was all that good when we got him; a low-cost decent upside proposition. This is more a comment on the truly awful state of quarterbacking in the NFL.

"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin

by dcrockett17 on Oct 16, 2008 7:48 PM PDT   0 recs

I dunno

For a third string QB, I don’t think he’s that bad. He was a terrible third round pick for the Browns though. I mean, just look at the third sting QBs in our division: Brian St. Pierre (AZ), Jamie Martin (SF), and Brock Berlin (STL). These are not good QBs…at all. But I guess that’s what you mean when you say “truly awful state of quarterbacking in the NFL”.

by SeaTownBlueDevil on Oct 16, 2008 11:52 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Nice

“Charlie Frye’s Fangoria centerfold of sacks, picks and scrotal fistulas”

Hopefully Wallace continues to make it through practices this week, sparing us from such debauchery.

I think with Seneca, we have a chance to win this contest if the defense can play in a game not plagued by offensive 3-and-outs. I think we have the linebackers to match-up better with Dunn, who has been playing well. Graham favors the Bucs vs. our players somewhat better, I think. It looks like Galloway will play, which doesn’t bode well for our propensity for giving up 20+ yard pass plays, even though Garcia’s arm may leave something to be desired.

by Misfit74 on Oct 16, 2008 8:13 PM PDT   0 recs

Heard rumors of McMuffin being out for Sundays game....

Can anyone confirm this?

Looks like the injuries never seem to end at the reciever position, we get a glass man back (Branch) and lose a breakfast sandwich….

When will the madness stop?!?!?!?!??

by collyb on Oct 17, 2008 12:11 AM PDT   0 recs

oh please, say it's so

get McMuffin out of there.

by djafrot on Oct 17, 2008 1:15 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

This just in

link

McMullen out with broken pinkie, Sen to start, Locklear starting at RT but Willis will see some time, and J Kent will be active for the game.

by Badical Turbo Radness on Oct 17, 2008 1:58 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

true

or sooner. I would rather see Kent get the development time than McMullen get his suck time in

by Badical Turbo Radness on Oct 17, 2008 2:13 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

He'll travel.

Then they’ll reevaluate.

by John Morgan on Oct 17, 2008 3:47 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

He tried to practice today

But his heel was still too sore, so they will re-evaluate on Sunday. He hasn’t practiced all week, I would guess he doesn’t play.

by Badical Turbo Radness on Oct 17, 2008 4:38 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I say keep him out.

We want him healthy for next year — no need to rush him back and risk his long-term health. Same goes for Matt. He needs to get healthy for 2009.

by redwolf75 on Oct 17, 2008 5:22 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I see Forsett

is off the practice squad and on the roster for sundays game. I assume he is special teams only but would be nice to see what he can do behind Duckett.

by Funballad on Oct 17, 2008 9:19 AM PDT   0 recs

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