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The Tape: We Are a Dust of a Future Past

With Ike Hilliard laid out and the ball on the ground, he of the 4.39/40, Josh Wilson, scooped the ball with only Jeff Garcia to beat. Whistle blown, six points erased. Official persecution? Nah, just a close call that fell the other way.  Before the fumble, the Bucs had a decisive 87% chance of victory, after a still robust 78%. Had Wilson scored, the Bucs would still have the advantage, having possession and home field, but the gap would have been ~60/40. In other words, all other things being equal -- they weren't -- Seattle would be back in the game. Instead, Seattle inherited bad field position and barely budged before punting the ball back to the Bucs.

Let's finish out the half. Memory tends to latch onto the vivid or painful, and Chris Spencer's premature snap was certainly painful. Another drive aborted. Cris Collinsworth took the opportunity to knock the young, largely unknown lineman, noting Mike Holmgren's displeasure. Last season, Spencer was bad. He tripped over his feet pulling and could hardly engage a block must less sustain it. This season, he's likely Seattle's second best offensive lineman on a pretty good unit. He's not the run blocker Mike Wahle is, but he's a better pass blocker and less mistake prone (who saw that coming?) He's probably not actually better than Sean Locklear, but sure as hell better than Locklear is right now. Listening to Collinsworth I couldn't help but think "Late."

That's the developing nature of truth. What was isn't. I see TV analyst once a week. Their takes are so dated, they'd tell you Weezer hit its stride with Hash Pipe. I think fans want to know who's next, not the faded name that was. So hear this: Chris Spencer, still not a value for a first round center, has played well. He's an athletic pull blocker who no longer slips over his shoelaces. He's not Bisquick and you don't see bodies in his wake, but he gets a block on his man and sustains reasonably well, even clobbers occasionally. He's benefited from Mike Solari's zone blocking scheme, holds his own when isolated and knows how to give a blindside assist for a struggling teammate. Just 26 and regaining strength, Spencer is more solution then problem.

In that mold, after horrifying me in the preseason, Red Bryant looked lively and hard to block against the Bucs. He doesn't have Brandon Mebane's power at the point, but sheds blockers and is deceptively accurate seeking the ball carrier in close quarters. Two arms from under a body, tackling. It would be surprising to see Howard Green get back into the mix. Bryant is younger, developing and offers more as a run stuffer and future pass rusher. My only question is who assumes the 3? With Bernard likely ending his Hawk career this year, I'd think Mebane or Bryant would shift right, but while Bane is the better pass rusher, he's also the better run stuffer. Something to ponder as this season staggers, slumps and collapses dead.

Before I wrap, a couple observations. Rocky Bernard is still a very good defensive tackle. If not for his woman battering tendencies, I could see Seattle franchising him. With the talent pool thin, thanks to an iffy draft and a weak free agent class, Seattle's in a bit of a pickle on how to replace him. The easiest way is from within. There's always something play for, and I'm very interested to see if Bryant proves he can step into the starting lineup next season. Good in spurts, he's still no Bernard. Another option is a smaller, productive four year starter out of the ACC like Vance Walker.

Craig Terrill again played tackle on Seattle's three man rush, and, predictably was first neutralized outright, looking almost silly facing three blockers, and then shoved to the earth. I like Terrill, but putting him at nose on a three man rush is a reminder that someone can't evaluate his own talent. Terrill is a single gap tackle. Matched against one man, he can, occasionally, break into the backfield and disrupt. Matched against three, you might as well put ten men on the field. For those saying, "well who can match against three?" Rocky Bernard. He did it on his second snap from the same formation, swimming Jeff Faine, penetrating and pressuring Jeff Garcia. Garcia checked down to Warrick Dunn for six. Dunn was "covered" by Leroy Hill. I like Hill, he's that mythical third member of the "best linebacker corps" in the NFL. Hill runs downhill like a mofo. He's an excellent pass rusher and punishing run stopper. Unfortunately, his cover skills have regressed and I'm kinda losing hope. Hill will demand a mint in the offseason, given his role in Seattle's defense, is he worth it?

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You'd know his coverage skills better than me

but Hill did have that deflected pass in coverage that would’ve been a jump-ball pick, had Lofa not clubbed it out of his grasp.

I’d hate to see a great LB walk away just because we have two other great LBs.

by lemonverbena on Oct 21, 2008 4:22 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Hill and the money

That’s a tough call. You can find OLBs for this defense, who can come in and play right away in the first three rounds of almost every draft.

I can’t see breaking the bank, especially considering that we don’t use him correctly. I’d almost rather us find an OLB who is better in coverage since we ask so much. But I LOVE Hill.

The key I suppose will be what Mora wants to do defensively. Judging by his Atlanta defenses I don’t think much will change.

"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin

by dcrockett17 on Oct 21, 2008 7:42 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

more Hill

That is the multi-million dollar question we’ve been wondering about since before the season began. Will we resign Hill? Can/would we use the Franchise Tag on him?

How many players that play like you want Leroy to in coverage are there out there? My understanding is that JP is our prime coverage linebacker and Hill shouldn’t be asked to do a whole lot in coverage. Is he being used improperly in that regard, or does his position dictate a certain level of coverage ability that he falls short of? It seems that 2 out of 3 assets are worth quite a bit, considering how good he is at tackling and rushing the passer. I don’t know enough about the position(s) to properly evaluate him on my own. Who are some other ’backers that have the 3 for 3 package you could compare Hill to and are any of them going to be available in FA?

If we don’t Tag Hill, who is the likely candidate if there is one? Is there any chance we retain Bernard (yes, Ruskell’s character standards key)?

Thanks for the continued efforts, John. Even with our season swiftly circling the white bowl of doom, you somehow manage to provide us meaningful material on a consistent basis. I appreciate it.

by Misfit74 on Oct 21, 2008 9:16 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Keep Hill

As much as I love Julian Peterson, he’s been playing at a distinctly lower level this year, it seems age is catching up with him. I think the best thing for this D would be to cut JP and sign Hill up long-term. Although we could look for a suitor at ROLB in free agency or the draft, I think it’s more likely we decide Hawthorne or Lewis will make an adequate replacement. With Hill and Lofa signed up for years we’re still solid at LB and we can then address one of the multitude of other positions that need work this off-season

by ciarannh on Oct 22, 2008 7:02 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

the question is:

How much would it cost us to cut/trade Peterson?

by djafrot on Oct 22, 2008 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I love the title of this post, John.

Depending on how you view things, it’s either a Simpsons (with Spinal Tap singing it) quote, or a line from a Spinal Tap song (Breaking Like the Wind).

by Phildopip on Oct 22, 2008 8:04 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Just a post...

To let you know that some of us that are not posting are still watching and reading; keep up the good work.

by Azimeir on Oct 22, 2008 9:30 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Our defense is being used incorrectly.

We’ve been over that, but if we were rushing Leroy Hill or Julian Peterson on a lot more snaps it would make sense to keep him. But since we are sitting back in a base zone coverage so often it seems we want a Leroy Hill to be a Cato June type the way he is deployed sometimes.

The more I watch this defense I hate the tampa 2. Play defense to the strengths of your players!

by cashless on Oct 22, 2008 12:09 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

When Lofa said in the preseason that Hill was their best linebacker...

…how right was he?

It seemed a little silly at the time, as if he was just trying to get his teammate a little fair press — which is understandable, considering how overshadowed he was by the Pro Bowl performances of Lofa and Peterson. Seahawks fans who really study the game can see Hill’s value, but even for them, those quotes from Lofa seemed a bit of a stretch.

But damn — it wasn’t a stretch at all.

I vow to never post a cartoon picture of spurting diarrhea on a credible blog.

/dick joke

by Bloof on Oct 22, 2008 3:15 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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