We are now in SECOND PLACE in the division and we are just two games back with two games against the cards still to come!

The cards still have the giants, eagles, pats and vikings ahead. We still have the skins, boys, and pats. We both have 5/9 at home. Next week against philly is a HUGE game (as is every game if we are gonna pull off a miracle playoff run) and if we beat the cards twice we could end up going to the playoffs even with an 8-8 record.

This is how our defense is supposed to operate. I think it is a stupid way to play but we are supposed to be giving up dinks and dunks and taking way the deep ball while winning the turnover battle. I think we need to stop trying to play that way but this is how its supposed to work out, and why, I am starting to think, we have looked SO horrible without a clear cut culprit of late.

NOT IMPOSSIBLE, but not easy, either.

Philly
@ Miami
Arizona
Washington
@ Dallas
NE
@ StL
NYJ
@ Arizona

A lot depends on how they play against Philly next week. If this ship is slowly turning around then even a close loss to the #2 team in DVOA suggests we could clear the rest of the table at home and pick off wins @Miami and @Arizona.

I can’t wait to see this game when I get back home.

Bless me Sea Gulls, for I have sinned…

I was in SF this weekend for a conference, catching the late Sunday night redeye back East but didn’t go to the game. I didn’t so much say, “I’m not going to the game” as much as I just never really planned to go; indifference being the opposite of love.

What should my penance be?

Man, it looked like SF was playing against the Vikings they were so damn stacked up against the run. That is probably why we ended up going with approx 50/50 run to pass. It is a little odd that Julius carried so few times, but I understand that they wanted to go through the different backs because nothing was working. I did notice one play which looked like either an option or a straight up draw where Jones took it and went to the right- into a sea of red, while to the left there was nothing but fake grass and blockers, maybe that pissed Holmgren off. We did a good job of finding something that worked, in this case throwing to the backfield, obviously Leonard was sensational, but Jones also nabbed 2 catches for 22.

I think it was smart that we stuck with the run though. Even though we were only getting 2 yards per carry, we were able to keep the number of possessions in the second half down and secure the win. The numbers get a little skewed by the last two drives where we had 6 runs for nothing with the game in the bag.

I also liked that we didn’t run that draw on third and long. I think we needed to place confidence in Seneca given how the niners were playing us.

I am still amazed by how much the niners offense played into our hands. We all get so angry about how Marshall runs this D, but Martz really forgot everything that worked in the last meeting. Two main points:

1) To end the half, the Seahawks of course got into that soft zone and let SF drive all the way down the field. SF had a 12 play drive. The element that played into our hands though is that SF, despite having all their timeouts, passed on every single play of this drive, with all but 3 seahawks in coverage on every play. We all know the rest, Wilson pick 6. What we have to take from this is that if a team wants to play 2-minute drill and get into a risky, pass-happpy, downfield offense- in a situation where it is still a close game and early, it is reasonable to get into a zone and create a very high interception probability and also keep plays in front of us and limit them to a FG anyways. This strategy has failed more often than not and I still don’t like it, but Martz totally failed to sniff it out and do the logical thing: run against a three man front with everyone in coverage. It would be REALLY cool if we stopped being so damn predictable, but it is redeeming to see that there is some scenario where it pays off.

2) The niners ran too little in the first half (a general Matz theme), but they also didn’t run left nearly enough. They ran more to the right and more to the middle. When Tapp is in there you run at Tapp.

The Niners really played into our hands. It isn’t that they played so poorly, its just that they didn’t take advantage of our weaknesses. I would not expect the same thing from other teams down the road. The Cards know very well how to play us. Still, we have been excellent against the Eagles and Holmgren knows what Reid does. This game is very winnable at home. With some help from the Rams we could be one game out next week.

I still think this team has some glaring weaknesses in both personnel and coaching, but the Cards being the only team above us, at only 4-3, means the playoffs are possible. A first round home win followed by a road-torching would be the likely outcome, again, but I still prefer it to not being in the playoffs.

I think the cards game will be very interesting. Both the hawks and cards are getting very poor play from their secondaries. This will be the matchup to watch. If our passing game is still in shambles when the cards game comes up we will be in big trouble because we need to torch them with passing to win the game. We can expect, best case scenario, our guys to merely contain the Fitzgerald, Boldin, Warner onslaught. I don’t thinking running will be a big part of the plan on either side. This means Hasselbeck (please get healthy) is going to have to hit whoever we have out there. It looks like Robinson, Engram, Carlson, and the backs are going to be the prime targets.