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Cherry-Picked Hope: Seattle's Three Stasticial Saving Graces

The Philadelphia Eagles' DVOA is 38.6%.

The Seattle Seahawks DVOA is -19.0%.

Advanced Football Stats gives Seattle a 14% chance of winning.

I used to run a series of articles analysing the statistical "matchups" in that week's contest. I've since abandoned it because I don't buy its method or accuracy and think it "succeeded" a bit by throwing it all against the wall and hoping people remember what stuck. But on this day when I haven't the time to do it right, I thought I'd revisit that thinking and offer three stastical "mismatches" that could just save Seattle's season.

First, Seattle's two productive receivers, its tight end John Carlson and fullback Leonard Weaver, match Phillies weakest links in pass coverage.

John Carlson: 20.0% (14th)

Philly D defending TEs: 27.4% (25th)

Leonard Weaver: 42.8% (8th)

Philly D defending RBs: 32.1% (29th)

The short passing game returned last week, and that's a least partly because of Seneca Wallace. People who see Wallace as only the inferior backup to Matt Hasselbeck miss that this season Wallace has outperformed Hasselbeck throwing short, evading pass rush and throwing deep. A week ago, neither Julius Jones nor Leonard Weaver had positive receiving value, now they are the spark that could ignite this dormant pass offense.

And second, not so much a mismatch as get out of jail free card.

Seattle D defending #1 receivers: 60.5% (31st)

No fan needs that stat explained, but here's the twist.

Eagles #1 Receiver DeSean Jackson: -5.9% (54th)

How is it that Jackson, perhaps the most impactful rookie in this year's class, the best receiver on a passing offense that's jumped 10 places and 20.6% DVOA, is a below average per play receiver? Well, it has a little do to with the flawed nature of individual DVOA and a little to do with Jackson's inconsistency and garbage yards. But for a Seattle team that's made every #1 receiver look like Torry Holt circa 2001, hope, however flawed, is sweeter than wild cherries.

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Why isn't anyone talking about the fact that Weaver has yet to practice this week?

Out with a sore foot….

I guess we have plenty of backs to fill the void….but I would like him on the field just to have the threat, looked like he and seneca had some chemistry….something that nobody else on the team seemed to really have with Sen.

by collyb on Oct 30, 2008 9:56 PM PDT reply actions  

Owen

I guess we may have to just hope Westbrook gets his facemask dented this week…

by Misfit74 on Oct 30, 2008 10:21 PM PDT reply actions  

Jackson

I’ve seen the Eagles a few times this year… Jackson is averaging 8 looks a game, which is around 10th in the league. They throw him the ball while covered a lot and just try to see if he gets it. Jackson was really their only quality, healthy receiver until very recently.

by michaelfox99 on Oct 31, 2008 5:34 AM PDT reply actions  

The other thing, as long as we're cherry-picking...

is the improvement on defense over the past couple weeks. Against Tampa, we couldn’t get off the field on 3rd downs, and of course gave up our seemingly obligatory huge play. Nonetheless, we held their offense more or less in check. Likewise, at SF Gore got his yards, but many of them came between the 20s when the game was more or less out of reach. Again, we gave up the obligatory big play—only we somewhat uncharacteristically made one too. And all this was without Lofa. We’ve also seen Rocky playing better, Mebane demand doubles, and Red Bryant remind us—as you note John—of Marcus Tubbs.

Certainly, the overall defensive numbers look terrible, and this team is a lot closer to the miserable suckfest we witnessed against the Giants than it is to solid bend-don’t-break defense we saw vs. Tampa and SF. BUT, the improvements we saw weren’t solely about playing somewhat inferior offenses. Some of that improvement is, I think, regression. This defense just should never have been as bad as it was. Questionable personnel decisions (e.g., Lo-Jack over Tapp), poorly schemed blitzes, and knock-kneed, pigeon-toed, clutzy defensive backs aside, these guys have just been underperforming. They’re (hopefully) beginning to play the way we had a right to anticipate.

As for Wallace, I don’t see how anyone can really fix their lips to complain. Have you seen the quality of backup QB play in the NFL these days? There aren’t 10 good starting QBs in the league, and even halfway decent backups are practically non-existent. Apart from Matt Cassell doing his Frank Reich impersonation for NE, what backup forced into action is playing better than Seneca? Against Tampa he was clearly rusty on this throws, but even by the 2nd half in that game it wasn’t rust as much as lack of timing with the receivers. Last week, as well as he played, he missed on 3-4 more big play passes based solely on slight miscommunication with receivers. For example, it’s clear to me that Engram—joined to Hasselbeck via Vulcan mind meld—finds the soft spot in coverage and sits right there. Seneca on the other hand wants the receiver to keep moving his feet. Those two have missed on several almost big plays precisely for that reason. You figure that after 2-3 starts, Seneca and Bobby will get that together and start making some of those plays.

"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin

by dcrockett17 on Oct 31, 2008 6:16 AM PDT reply actions  

I am super worried about not having Kerney around.

He does SOMETHING every play. Whether its pulling a tackle way outside, collapsing the pocket, getting a hand up in the QB’s face, and he is the vocal leader of the D-line. We really need LoJack to step it up, and perhaps more importantly, a huge game from the interior of the DL.

by michaelfox99 on Oct 31, 2008 7:36 AM PDT reply actions  

stuff I noticed during ATL @ PHI

philly’s receivers are pretty unimpressive coming off the jam, but that’s almost conventional wisdom at this point; they run a fairly traditional wco, and they use the threat of westbrook to get some open looks in the passing game to the likes of klecko and buckhalter.

westbrook seemed to go down a little easier than you’d expect at times, presumably the ankle/ribs are still feeling kinda raw; it’s worth noting that he (inexplicably) didn’t face a single 8-man front until the last 3 minutes of the game, atlanta played 2-deep the entire time. i’m no master strategist, but stacking the box every now and then might be a good idea.

desean jackson – made most of his plays in a motion man kind of role, getting mismatches in the passing game. had a goofy punt return where he fielded it at the 15, ended up running himself backwards and was taken down at the eagles 1 yard line.

also of note: brian dawkins’ flying squirrel tackle has to be the most entertaining sight in pro football.

by langsty on Oct 31, 2008 3:24 PM PDT reply actions  

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