Game Thread: Cardinals @ Seahawks
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks, Nov 16, 2008 1:05 PM PST
I've awaited this game. If Seattle loses today, they are a historic collapse from elimination. If they win, a mutated, many-crutched hope emerges; A reflection of desolation into almost impossible desire. That which is sweeter than 13-3 or home field throughout: That miraculous, refuse to lose, obsessive, contagious, consuming passion of pulling for a team that doesn't have a chance but ain't out of it yet!
Ahem.
But to get there, Seattle must first beat a better team. How much better? Not as much as you might think.
Football Outsiders hearts Arizona, and though they don't produce public win probabilities, they see a mismatch:
Arizona in the top 5 Seattle the lowliest among respectable teams
Advanced Football Stats sees Seattle's most winnable matchup in weeks
Arizona Win%: 64% Seattle Win%: 36%
AFS isn't any higher on Seattle, just not so sanguine on Arizona. The difference is forcing turnovers. FO sees repeatable skill. AFS sees noise. Seattle is the second worst team in the NFL at forcing turnovers. The Cardinals are the fourth best. It's a heady discussion and perhaps fodder for a future roundtable, but for the sake of hope and simplicity, let's say that Arizona and Seattle each have an equal chance of winning today's turnover battle. That's a reasonable break even. Seattle's offense has been better at protecting the ball than Arizona, but less so than Arizona's defense has been "better" at intercepting and recovering the ball than Seattle.
64
36
How much does a healthy Hasselbeck narrow the gap? Not enough if Seattle plays stupid. Here's my gamplan for beating the Cards:
- Let Morris Warm the Bench: Against Clancy Pendergast, blitz pick up is huge. Seattle's already taken a knock should Leonard Weaver sit and Owen Schmitt start. They can't survive another indecisive, and in Morris' case, flimsy blocker in the backfield. Keep Jones in, let him do his unheralded, body sacrificing, impressively consistent pass blocking thing and use that extra second to target the blitz's weak link. There's always one. If Morris is in, I hope Seattle runs or outlets him. Few things befuddle like Morris left in to pick up the blitz.
- Exploit the Middle: In week 3, when the Pendergast's blitzes cleared, it was often the middle left exposed. Washington was successful on 9 of 14 plays up the middle, including five first downs. None were big plays, but the success was no aberration. Seattle finally has a Chris Cooley of its own to work the seam and the best way to shake the Seneca Wallace malaise is for Hasselbeck to get John Carlson involved early and often. Exploit Chris Spencer's newfound people moving skills by rushing the gut. Three man fronts are susceptible to athletic linemen who can pull in space and create second level rush lanes, but Seattle must avoid stringing plays long and allowing Arizona's linebackers to swarm.
- Rotate Double Coverage: Arizona overmatches Seattle's secondary. The need for pressure is a given. Rotating double teams will slow Warner's read and force him from keying one receiver and firing away.
- Keep the safeties back: If ever there were a time to trust your run defense, this is it. Seattle should avoid stacking the box in anything but goal line situations. That includes short yardage, where Ken Whisenhunt is know to play action, roll out Warner and target an escaping tight end. Keep Seattle's safeties deep and contain Arizona, the tiny oomph stacking Brian Russell or Deon Grant might provide the run game is outweighed, many, many times over, by the loss of deep support.
- Keep cover as plays break down: If I were secondary coach, I'd hammer this every day. Every damn day. It finally looks like Seattle is getting it, but this should have been law from week one.
- Stay creative: Losing Patrick Kerney has done wonders to improve John Marshall's play calling. Seattle's recent use of zone blitzes, five man and six man blitzes, and varied and unpredictable looks has made an awful at times defense resemble the D we hop - expected and know exists.
It's a long shot, somewhere between Football Outsiders' extreme pessimism and AFS's almost rosy outlook. But damn if it isn't doable. And should Seattle win today, if only for a week, the season continues. What sweeter hopes for a fallen team?
0 recs |
524 comments
Comments
Looks like Knapp was the problem
Oakland’s offense has come alive.
by John Morgan on Nov 16, 2008 11:36 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Do you think Knapp will be the OC next year?
by redwolf75 on Nov 16, 2008 11:57 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I asked this before
but can someone tell me something about Knapp’s style?
I’ve heard he favours less multiple-WR sets, opting instead for more traditional formations, but that’s about it.
And of course we all saw his Dunn/Duck/Vick offense in Atlanta, but when you’ve got a QB like Vick how well does that translate?
by djafrot on Nov 16, 2008 12:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'll tell you what
If Seattle loses today, FG is going in full offseason mode. So that’s something I can cover.
by John Morgan on Nov 16, 2008 12:51 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Nice.
This is going to be the longest, but probably most exciting, offseason ever.
by djafrot on Nov 16, 2008 1:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Most exciting?
we’re not the yankees
by SeaTownBlueDevil on Nov 16, 2008 1:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Ha, yeah, it must be nice to be a yankees fan,
every FA is on your list, whereas most teams would be lucky to just pursue one superstar.
by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 1:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
How does Tui have a fumble in the Raiders game?
by redwolf75 on Nov 16, 2008 11:59 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
I didn't see the play in question
but Tui was in for Jamarcus Russell for a bit earlier in the game.
by Strang on Nov 16, 2008 12:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Holy shit is the Giants run game unstoppable.
I hate to say it, but that team has a chance to repeat.
by John Morgan on Nov 16, 2008 12:55 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Tatum Bell working in a mobile phone shop?
Wow, get an accountant dude.
by John Morgan on Nov 16, 2008 12:57 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I'm more excited for this game than I have been for any other game
except perhaps Buffalo.
by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 1:05 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Have I mentioned how much I love Mare's strong leg?
seriously, it’s amazing how easy he has made it to forget Josh Brown.
by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 1:06 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Uh.
Well that was lucky for the Cardinals.
by BrianL on Nov 16, 2008 1:07 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Dammit, they got yardage out of that?
Good play, just a bit unlucky.
by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 1:07 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I want us to win, but it's kind of fun watching Arizona's receivers.
They are so damn good.
by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 1:10 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
What a catch by Fitz.
I think only Engram can make that kind of catch for us.
by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 1:11 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Holding?
Arrington reminds me of Forsett.
by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 1:12 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
whomever coaches this defensive line needs to be fired.
HOW MANY TIMES are our linemen just gonna rush up in a QB’s face and get deked out? I can understand if it’s a mobile QB, but Kurt Warner?
This is embarrassing.
by djafrot on Nov 16, 2008 1:16 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Who's excited for Hass and Branch?
As long as we don’t go 3 and out, I’m stoked.
by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 1:17 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Really? I can.
I think they do a good job of making her hot, but not so hot that you don’t think she’s out of your league, which is what they’re going for.
by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 1:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
KoRo getting in on the action
with a nice catch.
by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 1:22 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
The return of Hass is giving me an erection.
“They must be close, I’m getting a hard on”.
by djafrot on Nov 16, 2008 1:23 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
It's Hass, what do you expect?
I'm being owned again!
by Coach Owens on Nov 16, 2008 1:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Almost sack, amost INT...
god they’re lucky again.
by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 1:30 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Who was covering Boldin?
That was miserable coverage.
by katal on Nov 16, 2008 1:30 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
And Russell.
):<
I'm being owned again!
by Coach Owens on Nov 16, 2008 1:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Russell with his patented double-miss tackle
by Misfit74 on Nov 16, 2008 1:31 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Brian Russell already making his presence felt.
by John Morgan on Nov 16, 2008 1:33 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
So what do we have?
Missed downfield tackle on Boldin, late coverage on that pass play to about the 5-yard line.
by BrianL on Nov 16, 2008 1:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I blame him for Wilson's missed INT too
and Hasselbeck’s bad back and the Holocaust.
by John Morgan on Nov 16, 2008 1:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
maybe the silver lining is that he sucks SO glaringly that Ruskell/Mora will have no choice but excise his foul presence…?
by lemonverbena on Nov 16, 2008 1:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Wow, couldn't see that coming.
I’m sitting here watching the Cards line up… “oh that looks like a draw”.
Ugh.
by djafrot on Nov 16, 2008 1:35 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Why is Russell still on the team?
I'm being owned again!
by Coach Owens on Nov 16, 2008 1:36 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Stream
Does anyone have a stream? The stoogetv links dont seem to be working
by Freeman on Nov 16, 2008 1:40 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Kurt Warner has 144 yards.
IN ONE QUARTER.
by djafrot on Nov 16, 2008 1:44 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
He's on pace for
52/56 with 576 yards passing
The good news? No TD’s
by SeaTownBlueDevil on Nov 16, 2008 1:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting play call
I prefer plays that aren’t stupid.
by John Morgan on Nov 16, 2008 1:49 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
John Ryan downs one inside the ten.
Blind squirrel finds a nut.
by BrianL on Nov 16, 2008 1:50 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
You don't even spell his first name right!
I'm being owned again!
by Coach Owens on Nov 16, 2008 1:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Details details.
Don’t bother me with technicalities.
by BrianL on Nov 16, 2008 1:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
theres one above
just scroll up
by SeaTownBlueDevil on Nov 16, 2008 1:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Ugh, I am running a Mac.
Isn’t there another online feed?
by Wilder. on Nov 16, 2008 1:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm running a Mac too
Not working here either.
by SeaTownBlueDevil on Nov 16, 2008 1:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Nobody on Justin.tv is broadcasting.
Grrrrrr….
by Wilder. on Nov 16, 2008 2:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Goddamn Fitzgerald made an awesome catch there...
Unbelievable…
by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 1:52 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Holy Jesus.
Arizona’s offense is ridiculous.
by djafrot on Nov 16, 2008 1:53 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
If we can't get pressure on Warner he's gonna have 400yds by halftime
by hawkr on Nov 16, 2008 1:54 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Good hit by Russell I thought.
He didn’t know if Q caught it or not.
by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 1:55 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Haha, Eagles and Cinci Tied???
Eagles SUCK
by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 1:56 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
the really, really painful thing
is that this ball-controlling zona O means we don’t get to see Hass’s return very much.
by djafrot on Nov 16, 2008 1:57 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Our run D looks good still.
Except that Arrington draw play.
by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 1:58 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
fuck me.
someone just give Hass a CHANCE for god’s sake.
by djafrot on Nov 16, 2008 2:04 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
OK, scratch that.
Incredible play by the DB.
by djafrot on Nov 16, 2008 2:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It's almost halftime already?
Jesus this game went by quickly.
by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 2:05 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I would like to see a Win Expectancy chart on this game.
The line would’ve never got off the ground.
by Wilder. on Nov 16, 2008 2:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Remember those WE charts we made when Jeff and Matthew went to that PitchF/X conference?
They’d probably look awfully similar.
by BrianL on Nov 16, 2008 2:11 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I love Josh Wilson.
I really do. Pistol, you beautiful bastard.
by John Morgan on Nov 16, 2008 2:12 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Bad pass by Warner
but great return by Wilson.
by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 2:13 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Yay, run by Mo Morris...
Just what I was hoping for.
by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 2:13 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Carlson, c'mon WHAT THE FUCK.
that was all you.
by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 2:14 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Cromartie can't even walk...
what the hell?
by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 2:15 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Hi guys
I got here late because I had to by new baby stuff.
Just saw the last TD, is the score indicative of what happened?
by GarethLewin on Nov 16, 2008 2:17 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Their offense has been so good, it's a wonder they don't have 28 points by now.
Probably because their drives are taking so much time off the clock.
by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 2:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't like this low kick stuff..
Just get a TB like you always do. With Warner and Rackers, 50 seconds is enough for a FG.
by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 2:18 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
If anyone is curious
In game win prob: http://68.50.1.191/
by John Morgan on Nov 16, 2008 2:22 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Isn't he the secondary coach?
I mean officially.
by GarethLewin on Nov 16, 2008 2:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
So didn't seem inappropriate
The walrus was also talking to them.
by GarethLewin on Nov 16, 2008 2:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
No, it wasn't at all
Just an interesting image.
by John Morgan on Nov 16, 2008 2:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Did you see Polomalu's unbelievable interception?
by Wilder. on Nov 16, 2008 2:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Nope, sounds like I will though.
Man just watching a few minute, Pittsburgh are good.
AFL title game will be Titans Steelers I think.
by GarethLewin on Nov 16, 2008 2:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I think you mean AFC, but yeah.
Weird how they only have 2 pts even though Roethlisburger and Parker’s stat lines both look good, and they don’t have any TOs.
by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 2:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
SF has 35 points on STL at half time?
What the hell?
by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 2:32 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
First half cap
The Cards are beating the hell out of Seattle. Unless something special happens, Arizona will win in a blowout.
by John Morgan on Nov 16, 2008 2:35 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
why is it that every single fricking time we run...
…I’ve already called it, sitting here in Victoria, watching the formation?
by djafrot on Nov 16, 2008 2:40 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Carlson tried to run some safety over.
Nice.
by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 2:42 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I'm so sick of this draw play.
Oh fuck now we’ve lost it.
by BrianL on Nov 16, 2008 2:42 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
WTF... no fumble...
he was already down I hope…
by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 2:42 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
fuck.
and AGAIN I knew it was a run.
This is ridiculous. Holmgren, just go away.
by djafrot on Nov 16, 2008 2:42 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Not good
Looked like the ball was out before he was down
by hawkr on Nov 16, 2008 2:44 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
yeah, it looked close.
but of course, since the call was a fumble on the field, the onus is on US to prove it’s not.
I hate, hate hate that evidence ruling.
by djafrot on Nov 16, 2008 2:46 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Wow.
Two down lineman.
What do the Cards do? Run.
This NFL is complicated stuff, I tell ya.
by djafrot on Nov 16, 2008 2:49 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
There's that V set that JM showed us.
Same play I think.
by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 2:50 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
haha, "Air Bud 2: Golden Receiver" was on
Just saw the stupid dog run onto the field in front of Joey Galloway, and then you see Warren Moon go “I don’t believe it”.
by djafrot on Nov 16, 2008 2:56 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
You've got to be shitting me
Two straight long-yardage run?
by BrianL on Nov 16, 2008 3:03 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Stop running with Mo Morris.
It’s not doing anything.
by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 3:03 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Ugh, now we can't stop the run either.
by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 3:08 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
they just play like beaten dogs
reminds me of watching the huskies play defense
by scotthawk on Nov 16, 2008 3:09 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Ugh, almost got a lucky break
and it goes against us.
by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 3:11 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
of course.
Cards getting a lot of breaks today.
The big bounce on their first drive that goes straight into their OL’s hands.
JJ’s fumble.
Then that one.
by djafrot on Nov 16, 2008 3:11 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Not really a break
but that dumb pass by Warner that Grant almost intercepted.
by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 3:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I would say I'm dissapointed in that TD, but I'm not.
Just… resigned.
by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 3:13 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Love it when we give a no name the best game of his carrer
by hawkr on Nov 16, 2008 3:14 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Isn't that the story of the Seahawks?
Seems like every game we give a second stringer his career game
by curtman118 on Nov 16, 2008 3:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
that's the story of the Mariners.
No name pitcher, or a big time pitcher struggling? Bam, good game against the M’s.
by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 3:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Seahawks are just as bad as the huskies.
but even worse because i actually have some false hope that the seahawks will not look like absolute crap
by curtman118 on Nov 16, 2008 3:14 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
The Huskies Basketball team lost to Portland yesterday for their season opener
pretty much erasing all hope I had for them already….
I still have faith in their women’s XC team, possibly the best women’s XC team ever.
by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 3:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, just plane embarassing.
Unfortunately xcountry isnt all that fun to watch
by curtman118 on Nov 16, 2008 3:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, that's your season.
With the fifth pick in the 2009 draft, the Seattle Seahawks select…
by djafrot on Nov 16, 2008 3:14 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Wilson, lone bright spot of this game!
He is AWESOME!
by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 3:16 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Wilson is really a great athlete
hes the only one doing ANYTHING
by curtman118 on Nov 16, 2008 3:16 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
That's what we should do, pass to Engram and Branch more.
by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 3:18 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Nice, Morris is doing well receiving as well.
Not so much for running.
by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 3:19 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Perfect pass to Carlson!
This is the Seahawks offense that we know and love.
by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 3:20 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Hass could've ran that in...
Nice job evading the sack though.
by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 3:21 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
THAT is why we brought Carlson here
that’s nice deep speed to the corner.
by djafrot on Nov 16, 2008 3:21 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
lol
Why are we throwing a jump ball to Branch?
by Ovreel on Nov 16, 2008 3:23 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Well, nevermind then
new set of downs!!!
by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 3:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
terrible set of downs.
fade route… to BRANCH?
then coming out throwing, from a tight formation?
ugh.
by djafrot on Nov 16, 2008 3:24 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Carlson was WIDE OPEN
come on Hasselbeck
by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 3:26 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Gof or it!
we’re down by 19, we have to.
by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 3:26 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Are they going to call it an incomplete pass?
(I don’t have this game on locally)
by Wilder. on Nov 16, 2008 3:37 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

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