Game Thread: Cardinals @ Seahawks
by John Morgan on Nov 16, 2008 11:44 AM PST
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PrintArizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks, Nov 16, 2008 1:05 PM PST
I've awaited this game. If Seattle loses today, they are a historic collapse from elimination. If they win, a mutated, many-crutched hope emerges; A reflection of desolation into almost impossible desire. That which is sweeter than 13-3 or home field throughout: That miraculous, refuse to lose, obsessive, contagious, consuming passion of pulling for a team that doesn't have a chance but ain't out of it yet!
Ahem.
But to get there, Seattle must first beat a better team. How much better? Not as much as you might think.
Football Outsiders hearts Arizona, and though they don't produce public win probabilities, they see a mismatch:
Arizona in the top 5 Seattle the lowliest among respectable teams
Advanced Football Stats sees Seattle's most winnable matchup in weeks
Arizona Win%: 64% Seattle Win%: 36%
AFS isn't any higher on Seattle, just not so sanguine on Arizona. The difference is forcing turnovers. FO sees repeatable skill. AFS sees noise. Seattle is the second worst team in the NFL at forcing turnovers. The Cardinals are the fourth best. It's a heady discussion and perhaps fodder for a future roundtable, but for the sake of hope and simplicity, let's say that Arizona and Seattle each have an equal chance of winning today's turnover battle. That's a reasonable break even. Seattle's offense has been better at protecting the ball than Arizona, but less so than Arizona's defense has been "better" at intercepting and recovering the ball than Seattle.
64
36
How much does a healthy Hasselbeck narrow the gap? Not enough if Seattle plays stupid. Here's my gamplan for beating the Cards:
- Let Morris Warm the Bench: Against Clancy Pendergast, blitz pick up is huge. Seattle's already taken a knock should Leonard Weaver sit and Owen Schmitt start. They can't survive another indecisive, and in Morris' case, flimsy blocker in the backfield. Keep Jones in, let him do his unheralded, body sacrificing, impressively consistent pass blocking thing and use that extra second to target the blitz's weak link. There's always one. If Morris is in, I hope Seattle runs or outlets him. Few things befuddle like Morris left in to pick up the blitz.
- Exploit the Middle: In week 3, when the Pendergast's blitzes cleared, it was often the middle left exposed. Washington was successful on 9 of 14 plays up the middle, including five first downs. None were big plays, but the success was no aberration. Seattle finally has a Chris Cooley of its own to work the seam and the best way to shake the Seneca Wallace malaise is for Hasselbeck to get John Carlson involved early and often. Exploit Chris Spencer's newfound people moving skills by rushing the gut. Three man fronts are susceptible to athletic linemen who can pull in space and create second level rush lanes, but Seattle must avoid stringing plays long and allowing Arizona's linebackers to swarm.
- Rotate Double Coverage: Arizona overmatches Seattle's secondary. The need for pressure is a given. Rotating double teams will slow Warner's read and force him from keying one receiver and firing away.
- Keep the safeties back: If ever there were a time to trust your run defense, this is it. Seattle should avoid stacking the box in anything but goal line situations. That includes short yardage, where Ken Whisenhunt is know to play action, roll out Warner and target an escaping tight end. Keep Seattle's safeties deep and contain Arizona, the tiny oomph stacking Brian Russell or Deon Grant might provide the run game is outweighed, many, many times over, by the loss of deep support.
- Keep cover as plays break down: If I were secondary coach, I'd hammer this every day. Every damn day. It finally looks like Seattle is getting it, but this should have been law from week one.
- Stay creative: Losing Patrick Kerney has done wonders to improve John Marshall's play calling. Seattle's recent use of zone blitzes, five man and six man blitzes, and varied and unpredictable looks has made an awful at times defense resemble the D we hop - expected and know exists.
It's a long shot, somewhere between Football Outsiders' extreme pessimism and AFS's almost rosy outlook. But damn if it isn't doable. And should Seattle win today, if only for a week, the season continues. What sweeter hopes for a fallen team?
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I asked this before
but can someone tell me something about Knapp’s style?
I’ve heard he favours less multiple-WR sets, opting instead for more traditional formations, but that’s about it.
And of course we all saw his Dunn/Duck/Vick offense in Atlanta, but when you’ve got a QB like Vick how well does that translate?
I'll tell you what
If Seattle loses today, FG is going in full offseason mode. So that’s something I can cover.
by John Morgan on Nov 16, 2008 12:51 PM PST up reply actions
Nice.
This is going to be the longest, but probably most exciting, offseason ever.
Most exciting?
we’re not the yankees
by SeaTownBlueDevil on Nov 16, 2008 1:23 PM PST up reply actions
Ha, yeah, it must be nice to be a yankees fan,
every FA is on your list, whereas most teams would be lucky to just pursue one superstar.
I didn't see the play in question
but Tui was in for Jamarcus Russell for a bit earlier in the game.
Holy shit is the Giants run game unstoppable.
I hate to say it, but that team has a chance to repeat.
Have I mentioned how much I love Mare's strong leg?
seriously, it’s amazing how easy he has made it to forget Josh Brown.
whomever coaches this defensive line needs to be fired.
HOW MANY TIMES are our linemen just gonna rush up in a QB’s face and get deked out? I can understand if it’s a mobile QB, but Kurt Warner?
This is embarrassing.
Really? I can.
I think they do a good job of making her hot, but not so hot that you don’t think she’s out of your league, which is what they’re going for.
The return of Hass is giving me an erection.
“They must be close, I’m getting a hard on”.
Who was covering Boldin?
That was miserable coverage.
So what do we have?
Missed downfield tackle on Boldin, late coverage on that pass play to about the 5-yard line.
maybe the silver lining is that he sucks SO glaringly that Ruskell/Mora will have no choice but excise his foul presence…?
by lemonverbena on Nov 16, 2008 1:42 PM PST up reply actions
Wow, couldn't see that coming.
I’m sitting here watching the Cards line up… “oh that looks like a draw”.
Ugh.
He's on pace for
52/56 with 576 yards passing
The good news? No TD’s
by SeaTownBlueDevil on Nov 16, 2008 1:45 PM PST up reply actions
John Ryan downs one inside the ten.
Blind squirrel finds a nut.
Details details.
Don’t bother me with technicalities.
I'm running a Mac too
Not working here either.
by SeaTownBlueDevil on Nov 16, 2008 1:59 PM PST up reply actions
the really, really painful thing
is that this ball-controlling zona O means we don’t get to see Hass’s return very much.
fuck me.
someone just give Hass a CHANCE for god’s sake.
OK, scratch that.
Incredible play by the DB.
I would like to see a Win Expectancy chart on this game.
The line would’ve never got off the ground.
Remember those WE charts we made when Jeff and Matthew went to that PitchF/X conference?
They’d probably look awfully similar.
Hi guys
I got here late because I had to by new baby stuff.
Just saw the last TD, is the score indicative of what happened?
Their offense has been so good, it's a wonder they don't have 28 points by now.
Probably because their drives are taking so much time off the clock.
I don't like this low kick stuff..
Just get a TB like you always do. With Warner and Rackers, 50 seconds is enough for a FG.
Nope, sounds like I will though.
Man just watching a few minute, Pittsburgh are good.
AFL title game will be Titans Steelers I think.
I think you mean AFC, but yeah.
Weird how they only have 2 pts even though Roethlisburger and Parker’s stat lines both look good, and they don’t have any TOs.
First half cap
The Cards are beating the hell out of Seattle. Unless something special happens, Arizona will win in a blowout.
why is it that every single fricking time we run...
…I’ve already called it, sitting here in Victoria, watching the formation?
I'm so sick of this draw play.
Oh fuck now we’ve lost it.
fuck.
and AGAIN I knew it was a run.
This is ridiculous. Holmgren, just go away.
yeah, it looked close.
but of course, since the call was a fumble on the field, the onus is on US to prove it’s not.
I hate, hate hate that evidence ruling.
Wow.
Two down lineman.
What do the Cards do? Run.
This NFL is complicated stuff, I tell ya.
yes
they have barely thrown at Tru. With Jennings on the other side, Warner can throw to either side without delay.
haha, "Air Bud 2: Golden Receiver" was on
Just saw the stupid dog run onto the field in front of Joey Galloway, and then you see Warren Moon go “I don’t believe it”.
You've got to be shitting me
Two straight long-yardage run?
they just play like beaten dogs
reminds me of watching the huskies play defense
of course.
Cards getting a lot of breaks today.
The big bounce on their first drive that goes straight into their OL’s hands.
JJ’s fumble.
Then that one.
Isn't that the story of the Seahawks?
Seems like every game we give a second stringer his career game
that's the story of the Mariners.
No name pitcher, or a big time pitcher struggling? Bam, good game against the M’s.
Seahawks are just as bad as the huskies.
but even worse because i actually have some false hope that the seahawks will not look like absolute crap
The Huskies Basketball team lost to Portland yesterday for their season opener
pretty much erasing all hope I had for them already….
I still have faith in their women’s XC team, possibly the best women’s XC team ever.
Yeah, just plane embarassing.
Unfortunately xcountry isnt all that fun to watch
Well, that's your season.
With the fifth pick in the 2009 draft, the Seattle Seahawks select…
Wilson is really a great athlete
hes the only one doing ANYTHING
THAT is why we brought Carlson here
that’s nice deep speed to the corner.
terrible set of downs.
fade route… to BRANCH?
then coming out throwing, from a tight formation?
ugh.
Later this week if you could JM, can you break down our running woes this game?
is it the RBs, our run blocking, or their great run D?
Holmgren is fully just mailing this in
so freakin’ unimaginative, and not playing to our strengths.
I did last night
In a dream… was a walk-on for the Colts.
No joke.
Haha, I get dreams like that all the time.
Unfortunately, my dreams are semi-realistic, so I catch a pass over the middle, and then get knocked out and carried off in a stretcher.
YESSSSS
Matt is a FOOTBALL PLAYER. What a badasss
Maybe we should use Duckett in more situations than the red zone
since we’re only getting 2 ypc anyways.
SEE SENECA!?
IT’S OKAY TO RUN EVEN THOUGH YOU ARE A QUARTERBACK.
touchbacks
Timmy, can we keep Mare? Please? Pretty please?
by helpless optimist on Nov 16, 2008 3:45 PM PST reply actions
uh, anyone wanna block Wilson
or at least account for him?
NOT IN OUR HOUSE
Let’s not let these fools take us out in quest
WHY
oh why, do we blitz Russell… on a DELAY?
KILL YOU MARSHALL
Wow, this is like the ideal two-minute drill.
DOWN BY SIX!
of course #()&$#O& FOX goes straight to commercial
so we all have to sit here and go WTF and watch eharmony commericals.
I will say that I honestly thought he'd play worse after that much time off.
While the results may not have been great, seeing both him and Branch on the field and contributing were encouraging.
Jesus
What the hell is going on? Our offense and defense can never get on the same page. When our offense is good, our defensive plays horrible and vice versa, not that either has happened often this year. I just hope we make good use of our high draft pick.
that one hurts.
to fight back into it, then give away the chance to win on an ugly pick.
worst year in Seattle history since the f-ing depression.
Entertaining game folks
Beat up on the NFC for the rest of the season until we meet in Week 17. Could be a heavy dose of Leinart that week.
We all leave footprints in the sands of time, just watch out for the discarded fish hooks!
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