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Game Thread: Cardinals @ Seahawks

Jj_flag_detail1_tiny by John Morgan on in Game Thread Comment 524 comments

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks, Nov 16, 2008 1:05 PM PST


Calling all one percenters:

I've awaited this game.  If Seattle loses today, they are a historic collapse from elimination. If they win, a mutated, many-crutched hope emerges; A reflection of desolation into almost impossible desire. That which is sweeter than 13-3 or home field throughout: That miraculous, refuse to lose, obsessive, contagious, consuming passion of pulling for a team that doesn't have a chance but ain't out of it yet!

Ahem.

But to get there, Seattle must first beat a better team. How much better? Not as much as you might think.

Football Outsiders hearts Arizona, and though they don't produce public win probabilities, they see a mismatch:

Arizona in the top 5

Seattle the lowliest among respectable teams

Advanced Football Stats sees Seattle's most winnable matchup in weeks

Arizona Win%: 64%

Seattle Win%: 36%

AFS isn't any higher on Seattle, just not so sanguine on Arizona. The difference is forcing turnovers. FO sees repeatable skill. AFS sees noise. Seattle is the second worst team in the NFL at forcing turnovers. The Cardinals are the fourth best. It's a heady discussion and perhaps fodder for a future roundtable, but for the sake of hope and simplicity, let's say that Arizona and Seattle each have an equal chance of winning today's turnover battle. That's a reasonable break even. Seattle's offense has been better at protecting the ball than Arizona, but less so than Arizona's defense has been "better" at intercepting and recovering the ball than Seattle.

64

36

How much does a healthy Hasselbeck narrow the gap? Not enough if Seattle plays stupid. Here's my gamplan for beating the Cards:

  1. Let Morris Warm the Bench: Against Clancy Pendergast, blitz pick up is huge. Seattle's already taken a knock should Leonard Weaver sit and Owen Schmitt start. They can't survive another indecisive, and in Morris' case, flimsy blocker in the backfield. Keep Jones in, let him do his unheralded, body sacrificing, impressively consistent pass blocking thing and use that extra second to target the blitz's weak link. There's always one. If Morris is in, I hope Seattle runs or outlets him. Few things befuddle like Morris left in to pick up the blitz.
  2. Exploit the Middle: In week 3, when the Pendergast's blitzes cleared, it was often the middle left exposed. Washington was successful on 9 of 14 plays up the middle, including five first downs. None were big plays, but the success was no aberration. Seattle finally has a Chris Cooley of its own to work the seam and the best way to shake the Seneca Wallace malaise is for Hasselbeck to get John Carlson involved early and often. Exploit Chris Spencer's newfound people moving skills by rushing the gut. Three man fronts are susceptible to athletic linemen who can pull in space and create second level rush lanes, but Seattle must avoid stringing plays long and allowing Arizona's linebackers to swarm.
  3. Rotate Double Coverage: Arizona overmatches Seattle's secondary. The need for pressure is a given. Rotating double teams will slow Warner's read and force him from keying one receiver and firing away.
  4. Keep the safeties back: If ever there were a time to trust your run defense, this is it. Seattle should avoid stacking the box in anything but goal line situations. That includes short yardage, where Ken Whisenhunt is know to play action, roll out Warner and target an escaping tight end. Keep Seattle's safeties deep and contain Arizona, the tiny oomph stacking Brian Russell or Deon Grant might provide the run game is outweighed, many, many times over, by the loss of deep support.
  5. Keep cover as plays break down: If I were secondary coach, I'd hammer this every day. Every damn day. It finally looks like Seattle is getting it, but this should have been law from week one.
  6. Stay creative: Losing Patrick Kerney has done wonders to improve John Marshall's play calling. Seattle's recent use of zone blitzes, five man and six man blitzes, and varied and unpredictable looks has made an awful at times defense resemble the D we hop - expected and know exists.

It's a long shot, somewhere between Football Outsiders' extreme pessimism and AFS's almost rosy outlook. But damn if it isn't doable. And should Seattle win today, if only for a week, the season continues. What sweeter hopes for a fallen team?

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Looks like Knapp was the problem

Oakland’s offense has come alive.

by John Morgan on Nov 16, 2008 11:36 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

I asked this before

but can someone tell me something about Knapp’s style?

I’ve heard he favours less multiple-WR sets, opting instead for more traditional formations, but that’s about it.

And of course we all saw his Dunn/Duck/Vick offense in Atlanta, but when you’ve got a QB like Vick how well does that translate?

by djafrot on Nov 16, 2008 12:25 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I'll tell you what

If Seattle loses today, FG is going in full offseason mode. So that’s something I can cover.

by John Morgan on Nov 16, 2008 12:51 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Nice.

This is going to be the longest, but probably most exciting, offseason ever.

by djafrot on Nov 16, 2008 1:00 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Most exciting?

we’re not the yankees

by SeaTownBlueDevil on Nov 16, 2008 1:23 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Ha, yeah, it must be nice to be a yankees fan,

every FA is on your list, whereas most teams would be lucky to just pursue one superstar.

by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 1:24 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I didn't see the play in question

but Tui was in for Jamarcus Russell for a bit earlier in the game.

by Strang on Nov 16, 2008 12:08 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Ah.

Was confused as I was looking at the box score and there were no pass attempts for Tui.

by redwolf75 on Nov 16, 2008 12:17 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Holy shit is the Giants run game unstoppable.

I hate to say it, but that team has a chance to repeat.

by John Morgan on Nov 16, 2008 12:55 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Have I mentioned how much I love Mare's strong leg?

seriously, it’s amazing how easy he has made it to forget Josh Brown.

by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 1:06 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Uh.

Well that was lucky for the Cardinals.

by BrianL on Nov 16, 2008 1:07 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Yes

http://www.stoogetv.com/player

Channel 4, and watch for a link

pw for channel 4 is “stoogetv.com”

by cashless on Nov 16, 2008 1:20 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Grant

That was beautiful.

by katal on Nov 16, 2008 1:10 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

What a catch by Fitz.

I think only Engram can make that kind of catch for us.

by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 1:11 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Holding?

Arrington reminds me of Forsett.

by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 1:12 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Hill

Damn do I want to franchise him.

by katal on Nov 16, 2008 1:13 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

whomever coaches this defensive line needs to be fired.

HOW MANY TIMES are our linemen just gonna rush up in a QB’s face and get deked out? I can understand if it’s a mobile QB, but Kurt Warner?

This is embarrassing.

by djafrot on Nov 16, 2008 1:16 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Who's excited for Hass and Branch?

As long as we don’t go 3 and out, I’m stoked.

by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 1:17 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Really? I can.

I think they do a good job of making her hot, but not so hot that you don’t think she’s out of your league, which is what they’re going for.

by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 1:19 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

YEAH!

Hass to Engram.

Back to reality.

by djafrot on Nov 16, 2008 1:21 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Holy

That was beautiful.

by katal on Nov 16, 2008 1:22 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Almost sack, amost INT...

god they’re lucky again.

by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 1:30 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Who was covering Boldin?

That was miserable coverage.

by katal on Nov 16, 2008 1:30 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

maybe the silver lining is that he sucks SO glaringly that Ruskell/Mora will have no choice but excise his foul presence…?

by lemonverbena on Nov 16, 2008 1:42 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Wow, couldn't see that coming.

I’m sitting here watching the Cards line up… “oh that looks like a draw”.

Ugh.

by djafrot on Nov 16, 2008 1:35 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Stream

Does anyone have a stream? The stoogetv links dont seem to be working

by Freeman on Nov 16, 2008 1:40 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

He's on pace for

52/56 with 576 yards passing

The good news? No TD’s

by SeaTownBlueDevil on Nov 16, 2008 1:45 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Going deep

Why even bother, Matt?

by katal on Nov 16, 2008 1:47 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Holy Jesus.

Arizona’s offense is ridiculous.

by djafrot on Nov 16, 2008 1:53 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

the really, really painful thing

is that this ball-controlling zona O means we don’t get to see Hass’s return very much.

by djafrot on Nov 16, 2008 1:57 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Our run D looks good still.

Except that Arrington draw play.

by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 1:58 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

fuck me.

someone just give Hass a CHANCE for god’s sake.

by djafrot on Nov 16, 2008 2:04 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

OK, scratch that.

Incredible play by the DB.

by djafrot on Nov 16, 2008 2:06 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

It's almost halftime already?

Jesus this game went by quickly.

by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 2:05 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I love Josh Wilson.

I really do. Pistol, you beautiful bastard.

by John Morgan on Nov 16, 2008 2:12 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Bad pass by Warner

but great return by Wilson.

by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 2:13 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Yay, run by Mo Morris...

Just what I was hoping for.

by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 2:13 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Hi guys

I got here late because I had to by new baby stuff.

Just saw the last TD, is the score indicative of what happened?

by GarethLewin on Nov 16, 2008 2:17 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Their offense has been so good, it's a wonder they don't have 28 points by now.

Probably because their drives are taking so much time off the clock.

by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 2:19 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't like this low kick stuff..

Just get a TB like you always do. With Warner and Rackers, 50 seconds is enough for a FG.

by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 2:18 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Nope, sounds like I will though.

Man just watching a few minute, Pittsburgh are good.

AFL title game will be Titans Steelers I think.

by GarethLewin on Nov 16, 2008 2:29 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I think you mean AFC, but yeah.

Weird how they only have 2 pts even though Roethlisburger and Parker’s stat lines both look good, and they don’t have any TOs.

by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 2:37 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

First half cap

The Cards are beating the hell out of Seattle. Unless something special happens, Arizona will win in a blowout.

by John Morgan on Nov 16, 2008 2:35 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

why is it that every single fricking time we run...

…I’ve already called it, sitting here in Victoria, watching the formation?

by djafrot on Nov 16, 2008 2:40 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

WTF... no fumble...

he was already down I hope…

by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 2:42 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

fuck.

and AGAIN I knew it was a run.

This is ridiculous. Holmgren, just go away.

by djafrot on Nov 16, 2008 2:42 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

yeah, it looked close.

but of course, since the call was a fumble on the field, the onus is on US to prove it’s not.

I hate, hate hate that evidence ruling.

by djafrot on Nov 16, 2008 2:46 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Wow.

Two down lineman.

What do the Cards do? Run.

This NFL is complicated stuff, I tell ya.

by djafrot on Nov 16, 2008 2:49 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

yes

they have barely thrown at Tru. With Jennings on the other side, Warner can throw to either side without delay.

by djafrot on Nov 16, 2008 2:55 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

haha, "Air Bud 2: Golden Receiver" was on

Just saw the stupid dog run onto the field in front of Joey Galloway, and then you see Warren Moon go “I don’t believe it”.

by djafrot on Nov 16, 2008 2:56 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

You've got to be shitting me

Two straight long-yardage run?

by BrianL on Nov 16, 2008 3:03 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

they just play like beaten dogs

reminds me of watching the huskies play defense

by scotthawk on Nov 16, 2008 3:09 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

of course.

Cards getting a lot of breaks today.

The big bounce on their first drive that goes straight into their OL’s hands.

JJ’s fumble.

Then that one.

by djafrot on Nov 16, 2008 3:11 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Isn't that the story of the Seahawks?

Seems like every game we give a second stringer his career game

by curtman118 on Nov 16, 2008 3:14 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

that's the story of the Mariners.

No name pitcher, or a big time pitcher struggling? Bam, good game against the M’s.

by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 3:16 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Seahawks are just as bad as the huskies.

but even worse because i actually have some false hope that the seahawks will not look like absolute crap

by curtman118 on Nov 16, 2008 3:14 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

The Huskies Basketball team lost to Portland yesterday for their season opener

pretty much erasing all hope I had for them already….
I still have faith in their women’s XC team, possibly the best women’s XC team ever.

by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 3:15 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Well, that's your season.

With the fifth pick in the 2009 draft, the Seattle Seahawks select…

by djafrot on Nov 16, 2008 3:14 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Wilson is really a great athlete

hes the only one doing ANYTHING

by curtman118 on Nov 16, 2008 3:16 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

THAT is why we brought Carlson here

that’s nice deep speed to the corner.

by djafrot on Nov 16, 2008 3:21 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Wow

I love Matt

by cashless on Nov 16, 2008 3:21 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

lol

Why are we throwing a jump ball to Branch?

by Ovreel on Nov 16, 2008 3:23 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

terrible set of downs.

fade route… to BRANCH?

then coming out throwing, from a tight formation?

ugh.

by djafrot on Nov 16, 2008 3:24 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Gof or it!

we’re down by 19, we have to.

by LantermanC on Nov 16, 2008 3:26 PM PST reply actions   0 recs