one thing I’d like to know is whether scouting o-line talent is more accurate than skill position talent.

with skill positions it feels like the odds of a bust int he top 10 are as high as 50-50? but that could be selection bias. But what about with linemen? is it easier to tell who will make a good offensive tackle?

If it is, then I would be really happy to see this team pickup the top o-line prospect out of the draft.

with two picks in the 12-20 range (although that would be difficult to achieve). Clearly everyone would be happy with Crabtree or Oher, but the salaries are prohibitive. Jamarcus Russell as the 2nd highest paid QB in the league is insane. Hope for a Flacco + Ryan Clady type draft instead of opening up the vault and going wild.

And now he’s even older.

As long as Seattle drafts a tackle in the first round, I’m happy.

I think a lot depends on WJ’s expected aging curve. If you think he’s basically going to fall off a cliff next year, a top-five OT seems like a good plan. But if you think he’s got 2-3 more years at a passable (i.e. league-average) level left in him, then paying top-five $$$ to a stud OT to sit on the bench for that time probably isn’t the best use of resources.

The same goes for Hasselbeck; if you think he’s done, they should target a QB. But if he can still be decent for a couple of years, if you draft a QB at the top of the draft you’ll have to choose between paying him a pile of money to wear a headset, or cutting a potentially still-useful player loose.

seem to be pretty safe within the last couple drafts (Thomas, Long, Clady)

So I think we go with Andre Smith, Michael Oher or Eugene Monroe if any of those 3 are available with our pick. Smith and Oher both have the ability to start at RG immediately if needed.

If we can’t get one of the top OT prospects I then see us trading down into value range for Duke Robinson.

For us the value in the 1st round is at OLine (Smith, Oher, Monroe, Robinson)

The value in the early 2nd is at WR ( Kenny Britt, Derrick Williams, Juaquin Iglesias and possibly Percy Harvin, Jeremy Maclin and Darrius Hayward-Bey if they slide)

The value in the early 3rd is at S ( Patrick Chung, Kevin Ellison, Nic Harris, Derek Pegues, Rashad Johnson, David Bruton, Courtney Greene, Michael Hamlin)

This guy is a monster. He may cost a fortune, but he’s the closest we can ever get in replacing Walter Jones.

Not to mention, the kid carries an inspirational story:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9FhlbsJUJ9Q

is really a function of what’s on the board. We still don’t know who is coming out right now; nor who we will target in free agency; nor do we know what teams like Detroit, Cincy, and KC will be looking to do in the draft.

Assuming a top five pick, I’m not all that enamored with any of the QBs coming out this year—at least not for top 5 scratch. (If Bradford comes out I might re-think that.) We have an opportunity to add a potentially great offensive lineman. I want one. I also think trading down will be difficult if the reason for doing so is that we can’t get one of the elite tackles.

The only position in the top 10 I can see immediately contributing greatly to the team would be WR. Most mocks have Stafford and Bradford going in the top 5-8 and Smith going in the top 5. I just don’t see the value in paying a rookie and butt load of money to sit behind a franchise player. Even if that player is in the decline he will likely offer more to the team then a rookie can.

because Ruskell will attempt to sew up our “obvious” needs with free agent signings before the draft even begins.

AND

we may see some real surprise cuts.

i think the importance of marginal value can be dramatically overstated when talking about the top of the draft, at least as it regards premium positions like QB; it’s basically impossible to overpay for a franchise QB (if they’re actually a franchise QB), in that it’s the position where getting the highest possible level of play supercedes pretty much any cost consideration. and it’s also – well, it’s not impossible at all, but it’s rare for a single contract to be an albatross on the level that it can cripple a team. but these are kind of general statements, and it’s still a context-dependent decision; i was drinking the matt ryan kool-aid by draft time because the closer you looked at him, the more it was made clear that he was a very special prospect. which isn’t to say that I anticipated him being so good so soon, just that I saw him as an average-to-above-average QB a few years down the road. but take him out of the picture – if henne and flacco and brohm are the best QBs in the draft, then suddenly i’m a lot less gung-ho about ‘best available QB’ as a drafting truism.

Trading down is better if you are after a player who is sure to be there later in the draft.

Recently, QBs beyond the #1 overall-type guy have been the trade-down targets that have had some predictability. Rodgers and Rivers both come to mind there, as well as Quinn and Henne. There seems to be an fairly accurate league-wide gauge of where those players may go and therefore the ability to trade down and still get the player without affording a ton of risk. Henne last year at QB it felt like you could just see Miami getting him at some point later in the draft after skipping the QB in the first round that they surely needed.

While it is true that sometimes true franchise type LTs can be found as gems later in drafts, the surefire types (as mentioned above) like Thomas or Long are still few and far between. Again, after that first consensus OT, there is again a crapshoot in a lot of ways. Look at guys drafted as the 2nd OT off the board in recent drafts that have not exactly been pro-bowl studs (round.overall selection, year): Shawn Andrews 1.16 in 04, Alex Barron 1.19 in 05, and Winston Justice 2.39 (remember his turnstile 6-sacks allowed game). I’m just saying that there may be some ‘safe bet’ tackles available to us, but it’s no sure thing. The safe, solid OT choice with an early first rounder would be hard to argue with. Trading down to get an OT is not usually something we see. Teams value them so much they trade up to get them. CAR traded a first, second, and fourth in next year’s draft to get back into the first this past year’s draft and grab OT Jeff Otah at 1.19.

What do I think we should do? It seem obvious that Ruskell’s MO is to trade down if he can, but the likelihood of trading out of one of those top spots usually isn’t very good. Teams don’t like the salary/cap implications and expectation of immediate production from such a player drafted that high. Tim will likely try and not succeed in doing so, at least that would be my guess. If that holds true, then who do we take in the top 5? It’s hard to tell this early as player value is still fluid to such a degree it makes deciding who the top several guys at a position truly are at the NFL level. Some guys come out of seemingly nowhere to have tremendous value.

One thing I liked about following Matt Ryan’s pre-draft info and now his translation into the pro’s is that he was able to do more with less as a college QB. He had great success without the big-time supporting cast that other players did. Jamarcus Russell may have been drafted as high as he was because he played among so many highly talented players and enjoyed success that had a lot to do with that. Ryan had an average set of skill players to throw to and play amongst. This tale makes me wonder about the soundness of drafting a QB from a big time college program who benefits from great players – their value may be harder to hit a home run on. Maybe there is a Jay Cutler type that can be found past round 1.

I’d still have to think we go OT in round one, but that may not be my preference.

Maybe a tall, dominant corner? I would like us to draft an explosive playmaker. I would not be opposed to a first round RB, either. That is probably a pipe-dream, but I would love a hang-your-hat-on-me back like Wells. I would be in favor of drafting a guy like CJ Spiller: a Chris Johnson type with good hands at some point, too. Maybe Maclin will be available in round 2? I would love the selection of Crabtree, but we certainly aren’t likely to draft a WR in the first round. We haven’t since Galloway and that was pre-Ruskell.

It all depends on the board when we are on the clock. Another good point was made above that we will likely address our biggest needs through FA so we won’t need to reach in the draft.

I was wondering whether we would go after Derek Anderson, given he is only 25, has talent, and is from the Northwest. I personally do not think we will considering that the price will be high and we can probably lean on Matt/Frye/Wallace for at least a season while we develop a QB selected in the draft.

Another good point above was that the quality of the ‘QB class’ is not what matters. We aren’t drafting 20 QB’s and averaging their performance together. We are talking about drafting one guy. So it comes down to who is on the board when our picks come up. The counter-argument is that in a weak QB class, a fixed caliber of QB will require a higher pick than in other years. This argument holds some water. However, the fact that Cassel and Anderson, two legitimate signal callers, will probably go to teams in need this offseason- that is two teams that probably won’t draft a QB in the first round this year.