A Brief "Hello", and Will Carroll on Walter Jones
Greetings, all. Doug Farrar from Football Outsiders here, and it will be my honor to post on Field Gulls from here on out with news, analysis, and other stuff as time permits and events dictate. I’ve been a fan of the work here for a long time, and I’d like to thank John for giving me a place to get my Seahawks ya-yas out.
However, that’s all the intro I have time for right now – I’ve been waiting for a response from Will Carroll (he’s got his own Wiki!) on the Walter Jones situation.
You may know Will from his work with Baseball Prospectus, ESPN, SI, FO – the man is ubiquitous, and he’s one of the most respected sports injury experts around. I asked Will about the initial reports re: the Jones microfracture surgery; that it was performed on a non-weight-bearing area and that this will make a difference in recovery. Will just got home from baseball’s winter meetings in Vegas, and he’ll have more on this next week, but here’s the initial analysis:
"Depends where he's having it on the knee. Sounds like they're arguing it will be (in the area of) the lateral (collateral ligament), but all of it's weight-bearing. At his age and with the problems, this is very Hail Mary, but why not?"
This isn’t reconstruction per se – it’s cartilage repair caused by the effects of bone fractures. Downhill skiers and basketball players have a much higher success rate with this than huge linemen. Ask Marcus Tubbs. Will Carroll, sports injury expert for Baseball Prospectus, Football Outsiders, and SI.com, says that it’s really dependent on how much "faith in Richard Steadman's controversial (microfracture) technique - one that seems to get great results or, at worst, does nothing." In short, the arthroscopic procedure involves the removal of any unstable cartilage from the knee area, and the creation of small holes ("microfractures") in the bone. Bone Marrow cells and blood from the area will then form a new structure – at least, that’s the idea. The problem, of course, is whether the extension of a career this violent through these means is the rough equivalent of trying to stop a charging rhino with a toy pistol. According to Carroll, the ACL repair procedure has more documented reliability in these types of cases, and the two injuries should not necessarily be seen as cumulative. "The ACL, as we've seen, doesn't really factor in, especially for linemen. I think what we have to look at is that we've seen comebacks from both (injuries, though most microfracture "survivors" have not been linemen) and consider them separately rather than as most people logically do -- as parts of the same person," Carroll concluded. "I'm more worried about the weight and the microfracture - there's just no good comparable. From the ACL, we've seen a lot of (recoveries), usually without short-term problems. I'd think the biggest concern is that he can come back from the microfracture, something he's already demonstrated to some extent, and that his career is not likely to challenge Chris Gray’s for longevity!"
Walter Jones is a Superman; of that there is absolutely no doubt. There is a lot we don’t know yet about his procedure and what it means for his future. But Will said it best – it’s a Hail Mary under these circumstances.
Speaking of, I got Will's take on the Tubbs preseason injury last year; there's a little more insight as to his opinion on the process:
I wish I had better (or more definitive) news, but there’ll be more later. When Will writes next week’s
39 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
welcome to the neghborhood
I’ll take your coat – the bar’s right over there. Make yourself at home, but try not to track mud on the carpet…
"The truth will set you free. But not until it is finished with you."
- David Foster Wallace R.I.P.
what?
wow, uh…not expecting Doug Farrar to join us! Welcome. I see you’re…Graphics Editor?
p.s I miss you Shrug :(
Well, I was afraid that was going to be the prognosis for Walter.
That said, welcome to Field Gulls! I love your work at FO and I must say, I’m damn excited to see that you’re going to be contributing here alongside John.
Um
Holmgren said there are two types of microfracture surgery and Jones is have the type that is basically no big deal and has a short recovery time. Any particular reason you think Holmgren would just flat out lie about that?
Not at all.
Just going on what I’ve been told, which isn’t a lot at the start of the news-gathering process.
by Doug Farrar on Dec 12, 2008 10:20 PM PST up reply actions
Microfracture surgery of any kind is frightening when it comes to 300+ lb linemen.
Compound that with Walter’s age and his inability to take pain killers and you’ve got a pretty bleak situation. He may be able to recover from this but unfortunately it appears the odds are stacked against him.
As for Holmgren
I think you might be reading a touch too much into it.
Holmgren said:
“He’s going to be fine.”
“He’s really going to be fine.”
“It’s not what you and I would normally think (wrt being microfracture surgery).”
So how am I reading into it too much?
Nobody is saying he's lying, we're just not sure if he'll be right or not
Being wrong and intentionally saying something false are different things.
Well, since he
obviously possesses information about the actual procedure that was done and the actual projected recovery time from the doctors who did the procedure; and no one here has anything like that, what makes you think he’s wrong and those without the relevant knowledge are right?
Holmgren
said it was a “small” microfracture procedure on a non-weight bearing surface. Apparently these are two crucial factors which determine the prognosis and prompted him to say that Jones would be fine by training camp next season.
Since “basic critical analysis” requires addressing the most important factors involved, in this case that analysis must ask: “how small was the procedure?” “what is the difference in prognosis between weight bearing and non-weight bearing microfracture surgery?” and so forth. I haven’t seen this sort of analysis anywhere yet, have you?
no, you're rejecting the entire idea of alternate views to Holmgren's
it’s possible for reasonable people to look at the facts and come up with differing conclusions- differing prognoses. But you thought Farrar/Carroll were accusing Holmgren of flat-out lying.
and I think you’re making “the facts” be more obtuse then they need to be. We may not know the exact position of the surgery, but I would certainly consider “34 year old 300+ pound offensive lineman with kidney problems undergoing a procedure with questionable rate of return” relevant knowledge for assessing Jones’ NFL future.
No
“it’s possible for reasonable people to look at the facts and come up with differing conclusions- differing prognoses.”
Not if they don’t have the facts. My point is that Holmgren has the facts and we don’t. How can we look at the facts if we don’t have them?
Two doctors, both with the same set of "facts", can come away with differing opinions on an injury
It’s why people get second opinions. We’d all love for Holmgren to be right and Walt to be back and ready to go at the start of next year. Unfortunately there are a lot of things that say this might not be the case. His age, he was slowly down before the surgery, his inability to take most pain killers and his size are all factors not in his favor. Not to mention that he might just decide to call it a career instead of going through all the rehab to get back in playing shape.
As far as the 75-80% success rate, I don’t believe that considers a patients ability to play professional sports at a high level. In the ‘use in professional sports’ section of that wiki it talks about several players who never regained their form. The surgery was successful, they’re fully functioning and still better athletes then most of us could dream of being but they were a shell of their former playing selves.
Above
“Depends where he’s having it on the knee. Sounds like they’re arguing it will be the lateral (collateral ligament), but all of it’s weight-bearing. At his age and with the problems, this is very Hail Mary, but why not?” —Will Carroll
Microfracture surgery
is surgery to articular cartilage (the tissue lining the joint surface), not the lateral collateral ligament. In the knee this is almost always the meniscus, most of which bear the person’s weight directly upon it. Parts of the meniscus don’t bear weight. This must be where Jone’s procedure was done, probably near the very edges of the meniscus. According to Wikipedia, the surgery has a 75-80% overall success rate even among professional athletes.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microfracture_surgery
This stat apparently includes even the most extensive surgeries, and since the recovery rate depends highly upon the amount of microfracture done, and since Jones’s version was on the small size, it is reasonable to assume he will probably be back at full strength by next season.
Mike Holmgren has a conflict of interest
He does have better, more accurate information than we do, but he also has a responsibility to the team and the player to be positive. It is our job as independent analysts to be critical of the best available information and consult someone with expertise about the subject. That’s what Doug Farrar did. The problem, as I see it, is you disagree with this site’s right to question or even contradict Mike Holmgren. No one is saying he is absolutely wrong and absolutely no one is saying he’s a liar, but it’s irresponsible and naive to take everything he says at face value or as gospel. It’s his informed opinion, subject to his judgment and his motives, and it can be wrong and has been wrong.
Why
wouldn’t Holmgren just say, “it’s too early to tell.” or “it’s serious.” like he did with Tubbs microfracture surgery? It makes no sense for him to put a falsely rosy picture on Jones’ prognosis. If anything it would put more pressure on Jones to come back when he can’t.
I have no problem with the site’s right to question Holmgren. I’m just doing like everyone else and arguing what I think is wrong and right here. So far the expert here has said he doesn’t have a lot of information about the subject. He didn’t draw any strong conclusions and I’m sure you’ll agree that people shouldn’t draw conclusions without the necessary facts if they want to be right. So those who are saying Jones is probably done are jumping the gun IMO, and I’ve given good reasons for thinking so, right?
Microfracture surgery is just plain frightening, regardless of weight
It’s still relatively new to football and the it’s track record in basketball seems to be about 50/50 at this point. But ya, I have to think that guys the size of Tubbs and Walt are going to have a really tough time coming back from this.
Are there any success stories of lineman having microfracture?
Pointing out the likely downside of Jones' surgery
doesn’t mean anyone’s accusing Holmgren of flat out lying, it says Holmgren presented the most optimistic case.
And it really is too early for any team official to declare the worst, especially since Walter went through surgery today.
Holmgren’s probably doing what he can to take the media pressure of Walter for the time being. If the prognosis is as grim as it appears to be, I’d like to think that he’d be given a few days to get his thoughts together.
First off, welcome to Field Gulls, Doug.
While I’d like to be optimistic about Jones coming back, I echo Brian’s sentiments—the odds are very much stacked against him. For now, I cross my fingers, but I fear #71 may have taken his last snap.
Long have I feared typing those words. It feels…hollow, like a part of your soul is now missing. Through thick and thin, Jones has always been there, the rock for all to lean on. It’s something that’s really hard to convey through a mere keyboard. The Seahawks just won’t be the same without him.
Every day I hear about Seattle sports' failures. Every night I fall asleep to the sound of my own tears.
Wow, we are bringing in the big names now!
Welcome to Field Gulls, Doug. Like everyone else has pretty much said, love the work you do for Football Outsiders.
I hope Walt can make a recovery, but I’m not counting on it. At least for the final 3 games we’ll get a good look at how Locklear handles the LT duties.
Thanks for the kind words.
I’ve been working on a DVOA Matchup thing for the Times tonight, and my brain keeps slamming back to Walter Jones in 2005, when he was just about the best football player I’ve ever seen over the course of a full season.
by Doug Farrar on Dec 12, 2008 10:42 PM PST up reply actions
He was.
But how much more impact did he have on our season than the man next to him, Steve Hutchinson? I know this is a sore spot for some of us and I don’t mean to intentionally pick at it, but that was my first year out of HS. I didn’t understand football, especially line play very well back then. I just remember them being great but nothing specific. Was Walt really better than Hutch, and in what ways?
Maybe a lot to ask, some loaded questions.
I do really appreciate that you have joined us, I am surprised and very happy about that.
Yay! a new place for my Farrar fix.
Hopefully Big Walt’s surgery works out for the best.
But Locklear’s final 3 games just took on a huge amount of importance.
Doug, welcome to the club
I’ve always appreciated your take on Football Outsiders and am thrilled to have you around here too.
Bit of a downer first post though. “Hey, I’m going to be writing here! Also, perhaps the greatest player in Seahawks history may have just ended his career.”
"Hey, guess what? Nobody cares who would win in a crazy fantasy fist-fight between Anne Frank and Lizzie Borden." The Monarch
by crushedoptimist on Dec 13, 2008 12:29 AM PST reply actions
Welcome Doug
always enjoyed the work on both FO and Seahawks Insider.
Err… this sucks about Walter. It doesn’t necessarily “change” the thinking about drafting a QB high but it does make me think that you have to approach the offense assuming that Jones won’t be back. (Then be pleasantly surprised if he makes it back.)
"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin
Holy Smokes
I get busy for 2 weeks at work and come back to FG and Doug Farrar is now a writer? I need to leave more often
You may gain some yards on the ground, but eventually Lofa will end up biting you in the ass.
Wow, welcome, Doug
I’ve been reading your work since the Seahawks.net days — seeing you post here made my jaw drop.
And the news is, of course, unsettling. I can’t imagine the Seahawks without Walt.
Is it just me or did the focus on elite LTs take a huge step forward in the general media with Walt and the ‘05 Seahawks? Before that, you’d hear a little lip service about Ogden or Pace, but ever since that season, the announcing crews seem go out of their way to praise them.
Smokescreen?
Is it too early to embellish this surgery for Walt as a very early pre-draft smokescreen?
Thanks for adding to the site Mr. Farrar. I love your work. Welcome. Thanks to John for opening the door to allow you to contribute. An unselfish, and humble move that I appreciate.
I have a friend who investigates insurance claims
Once surgery is involved, it’s real.
by John Morgan on Dec 13, 2008 11:50 AM PST up reply actions
Woo! Welcome, Doug!
Our own little piece of Football Outsiders right here in our own back yard. You should pull Ben Riley over here too so he can talk endlessly about his fantasy team.
by Phil Hatzenbuehler on Dec 13, 2008 2:52 PM PST reply actions
Ugh
We don’t need more of that fucker over here. He and his Jemaine-resembling ass can stay on FO.

by 


























