The Top Ten Seahawks Stories That Weren't: #6: John Carlson is Slow
Pick Analysis: The Seahawks selection of Carlson comes at somewhat of a surprise with a player like Fred Davis still on the board. But in Carlson Seattle gets a player who has solid blocking potential, though he appears limited in his pass-catching ability. -NFL.com
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| John Carlson seen relaxing outside Bob Marshall Wilderness Complex. Carlsons are shrinking across the globe. |
John Carlson ran a 4.89/40. That led many keyboards a-wagging and Carlson plunging down irrelevant boards on irrelevant draft splogs.
Dustin Keller ran a 4.55/40. He also did a bunch of other miraculous stuff: 38" vert; ate glass; swallowed the ocean whole.
How important is .33 seconds? Depends how you look at it. It can be insignificant or outright meaningless. The two were virtually identical to ten, 1.63 for Carlson versus 1.62 for Keller. The difference came in the next ten. Carlson didn't show much "second gear" averaging only 8.4 yards per second from the ten to twenty yard markers. Keller really began to distance himself here, averaging 9.71 per second. How much is that worth? Let's say each ran a deep out, twenty yards and then into the flat, it would take Carlson 2.82 seconds to get to his cut point versus 2.65 for Keller. That might be meaningful in two plays a season. Overall, Carlson averaged about 8.18 yards per second. Keller averaged about 8.79 yards per second. If both ran a go route, and their quarterback had a very long time in the pocket, say five seconds, Keller would be able to run 3.06 more yards than Carlson.
This is dumb, huh?
A handful of NFL players challenge with their top end speed. Those players force schematic adjustments from opposing defenses and help improve their teammates' play. Many, many more players challenge deep with a combination of other talents. Those players force schematic adjustments from opposing defenses and help improve their teammates' play.
The truth is: Carlson probably isn't very fast. Word is he was sick prior to attending the combine, but his 40 didn't improve much (4.72) on favorable footing at Notre Dame. He's probably not a whole lot faster than Tony Gonzalez or Antonio Gates. He has been a good deep threat. He has seventeen receptions of 15+ and ten receptions of 20+. The man who outclassed him at the Combine has eleven and seven. (Factoid: How precise is Mike Holmgren's offense? Carlson has seven receptions of 16 or 17 yards. Before week thirteen, his deeper routes ran between 20 and 25. Since, Holmgren has added more corner patterns and Carlson's five 20+ are 25, 25, 27, 28 and 33.) Carlson has bettered Keller in receptions, yards, yards per catch, touchdowns, DYAR, DVOA, catch percentage and yards after catch. The man who ran wild over a sea of jobbers has averaged only 3.35 yards after the catch. The man so slow his ass fossilizes waiting for his legs has averaged 4.3 yards after the catch.
John Carlson isn't slow. He lacks top end speed. So much for those essential tight end go routes.
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32 comments
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Comments
Hands down one of the funniest articles seen at FG all year.
That led many keyboards a-wagging and Carlson plunging down irrelevant boards on irrelevant draft splogs.
Tell us how you really feel about mock draft splogs, John.
by BrianL on Dec 23, 2008 6:19 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I'll be honest
I really liked Davis going into the draft last year, but Carlson is definitely my favorite Seahawk (tied with Kerney), and I’m glad we have him. I hope he’s a Seahawk for life.
How is his blocking anyways? He looks to be be above average in both run and pass blocking to me.
by LantermanC on Dec 23, 2008 6:20 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
He's really improving especially as a run blocker
Kid has a phenomenal work ethic.
by John Morgan on Dec 23, 2008 6:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
John, I know that when we did that mock draft over on Scout...
…we were all looking at the most ready-made tight end as opposed to the athletic “project”. Two of us picked Carlson in the second round, and the other guy picked Craig Stevens a round later, if I remember correctly. I think the Seahawks gave enough signals pre-draft that they didn’t want to wait for this position to work this time.
by Doug Farrar on Dec 23, 2008 6:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Speaking of Stevens,
How is he doing? I’m still amazed he went in the third.
by John Morgan on Dec 24, 2008 11:57 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
According to nfl.com, he's started one game, been active in 15,
and has 0 receptions.
by redwolf75 on Dec 25, 2008 8:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
This sheds some light on how important 40 times really are
Draft pundits would have you believe that .33 seconds makes a world of difference in player ability and potiential. Another example of how straight line speed isn’t an indicator of receiving prowess or potential.
by Badical Turbo Radness on Dec 23, 2008 6:38 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Stevens?
How fast was Stevens compared to Carlson? Does anyone remember his combine speed?
by lordtd on Dec 23, 2008 6:52 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Stevens ran a 4.77, per NFLDraftScout.com...
…same as his I.Q.
by Doug Farrar on Dec 23, 2008 6:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Lol, Fred Davis.
I chuckled when I saw most mocks having us take him at #25, despite him doing next to nothing to warrant it. Keller was intriguing and in all fairness, pretty good with the Jets so far, but simply a zero in blocking. Not to mention, a workout warrior. Carlson was a pretty easy choice as the most well-rounded TE, but of course your average draft analyst thinks TEs are just slower WRs.
by Fearless Frog on Dec 23, 2008 7:23 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Keller was my favorite
The first thing I saw in the combine was his verticle that John poked fun at, it was ridiculous how high he got up. His hype got out of control though, he’s too one dimensional for a first round pick. I’m a little surprised that Carlson has outperformed him in the passing game but not as an overall tight end.
by Nate Dogg on Dec 23, 2008 11:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
DONT FORGET!!!
JC got the highest score in the wonderlic test!!!
I dont believe on that crap but hey!!!
by GuamND on Dec 23, 2008 7:28 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I wonder what Brian Russell got on the wonderlic.
Probably a 50. Because, y’know, he’s got all those intangibles. That’s what makes him so valuable on a football field.
by SeaTownBlueDevil on Dec 23, 2008 7:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Brian Russell went undrafted
So I’m assuming he wasn’t deemed a prospect worthy enough to take the test. No doubt he’d probably ace it.
by Fearless Frog on Dec 23, 2008 7:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
no doubt he'd probably not touch the exam for the full allotted time period,
then after the exam time finished, leap on his desk.
I DRINK YOUR MILKSHAKE!!! I DRINK IT UP!!
by abender20 on Dec 24, 2008 8:46 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Actually
Carlson’s combine numbers were lower than expected, and lower than they would be if he performed them at any other time because he was recovering from a parasite. Teams were aware of this and at least one team decided that he was a better player than his combine numbers and that once healthy he would revert to the player they saw on film.
Those who followed the situation closely knew that he was probably at least as fast as your average tight end.
by ACassel on Dec 23, 2008 7:37 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Stevens again
Just to compare, wasn’t Stevens considered fairly fast? I recall him getting deep fairly often (when he didn’t drop the ball). Carlson’s numbers are better, so I’m curious why Carlson wasn’t rated as well as Stevens.
by lordtd on Dec 23, 2008 8:27 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I don't know, except for Stevens being a complete bonehead off the field
I thought he was a terrific tight end, and a possible reason (amongst many) as to why we were so good during our Superbowl run. He was a nice target for Hasselbeck ( 6’7", ran good routes, decent speed and agility, hands like KoRo…), and I’d have to imagine that he was a plus blocker as well, something he didn’t seem to get credit for.
by LantermanC on Dec 23, 2008 10:30 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Stevens blocking
I recall him being a pretty lousy blocker. He could get in the way, but didn’t move anybody.
by lordtd on Dec 23, 2008 10:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Stevens was a dominant blocker when he wanted to be
Remember the crotch kneeing incident against the Raiders on MNF? The guy that kneed him was getting his ass blocked into the ground every play that drive and Stevens was letting him know about it.
by kearly on Dec 24, 2008 12:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
John Clayton
I looked for a link, but I think it was on KJR…
Predraft someone asked Clayton what he thought of Carlson and he basically said he was a worthless sack of shit. I’ve sorta listened to Clayton more than most guys on ESPN, and was mortified when we took Carlson… man was Clayton wrong. Funny.
by scotthawk on Dec 23, 2008 9:11 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I wish they showed Clayton's profile.
or a 360 shot of him… He’s got to be the most awkward looking person around…
by LantermanC on Dec 23, 2008 10:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Nevermind, easily found... Sorry in advance BrianL

by LantermanC on Dec 23, 2008 10:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
its easyy mmmkaayyyyy
I DRINK YOUR MILKSHAKE!!! I DRINK IT UP!!
by abender20 on Dec 24, 2008 3:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
This is why I consistently read this site. Good stuff.
and happy holidays, everyone.
by Misfit74 on Dec 24, 2008 9:42 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
That's why I stopped by today...
to wish everyone Happy Holidays — and safe travels to all who will be on the highways and skyways.
"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin
by dcrockett17 on Dec 24, 2008 12:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Sando gave you a link on his ESPN blog.
John Carlson=stud.
The only downside to him of course is this is his age 24 season — TEs of course not having long shelf lives
by redwolf75 on Dec 24, 2008 11:57 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

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