HS Football Coach Eschews Punting Because Numbers Told Him So

by Matthew on Dec 25, 2008 2:14 PM PST Comment 13 comments

and he wins the state title.

HS Football Coach Defies Conventional Wisdom, Wins State Title

Thought this was an interesting read, some highlights:

Kelley's team only punted twice in 2007 − once as an act of sportsmanship to prevent running up the score − and never after that Dollarway game.
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Kelley supports this rationale with numbers analysis.
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An innovative and statistics-minded coach, Kelley became further emboldened after reading several studies, including "Do Firms Maximize? Evidence from Pro Football," by University of California-Berkeley economics professor David Romer. Kelley also examined ZEUS, a computer program developed by Chuck Bower, who has a doctorate in astrophysics, and Frank Frigo, a game theory expert, to model and predict football outcomes.

Holidays are always slow news cycles, so figured this might help pass the boredom.

A place to bury strangers.

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Read this when you posted it to LL

I am waiting for the first college and pro coach to adopt this policy. With time of possession such a crucial component of the NFL game, this would appear to be quite the worthwhile approach.

"Hey, guess what? Nobody cares who would win in a crazy fantasy fist-fight between Anne Frank and Lizzie Borden." The Monarch

by crushedoptimist on Dec 25, 2008 9:40 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

The Pats were closest to this last year, and even they punted some.

This would be less likely in the NFL, however, where the talent and scouting are such that success rates for the offense would decrease.

I DRINK YOUR MILKSHAKE!!! I DRINK IT UP!!

by abender20 on Dec 26, 2008 9:48 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

New England was actually 6th in 4th down attempts (21) last year

behind Jax (33), New Orleans, Oakland, and Miami and Denver who were tied.

by Nate Dogg on Dec 26, 2008 9:56 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

And why would offensive success decrease with more attempts?

by Nate Dogg on Dec 26, 2008 9:58 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

to clarify both points

I didn’t mean nominal 4th down attempts. I meant “Trusting your offense to convert in situations that aren’t textbook ’let’s go for it’ situations”.

I was referring to 4th down success in general. NFL defenses are good. Someone with more experience than I can validate/negate this statement, but defense is less successful on a high school level than offense. You see a lot more busted coverage, missed tackles, bad assignments, and gaping holes in high school. That goes in higher levels.

I DRINK YOUR MILKSHAKE!!! I DRINK IT UP!!

by abender20 on Dec 26, 2008 10:40 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

It's a good point, you're going to have a lot less blown assignments in the NFL.

The way I think about it is I have x% chance to convert as well as x% chance the defense allows me to convert from their own mistakes. That second value shrinks drastically as the level of competition increases, but that first value would be consistent throughout a game. Obviously your decision is going to be easier at the HS level since that second value is easier to depend on (much larger) but there are many situations in the NFL where the first value is high enough on it’s own that you should go for it.

by Nate Dogg on Dec 26, 2008 11:02 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

The first value is dependent upon the second value.

If the chance of blown assignment goes down as competition gets better, the chance of converting decreases as well. Blown assignments aren’t just about receivers ending up open 25 yards down field, but also linebackers not hitting the right hole, ends not containing, etc. This comment frankly doesn’t make a lot of sense.

I DRINK YOUR MILKSHAKE!!! I DRINK IT UP!!

by abender20 on Dec 26, 2008 11:23 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

you misread it, or I wasn't clear

You have a chance to convert a first down of your own ability with the defense playing assignment correct. You also have a chance that regardless of what you do a defender falls down or picks the wrong hole or whatever, a chance that it no longer become a matter of are you better but a matter of did the defense screw up. Together, they would form your overall chance of converting the first down. So again, as your level of competition goes up the chance that the defense just plain screws up and gives you a first down decreases, but that doesn’t mean that you don’t have a good chance of converting the down based on your skill alone. You’re just more depedent on your own ability in the NFL.

by Nate Dogg on Dec 26, 2008 11:53 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Very interesting article

Thanks for posting it. I can see how especially on the HS level that could throw a major wrench in teams prep work during the week following up to a match with them.

by vanrijn on Dec 26, 2008 7:54 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

especially the onside kick policy

by vanrijn on Dec 26, 2008 7:54 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Romers paper is a pretty interesting read

I haven’t gotten all the way through it however. I’m all for things that encourage coaches to be more agressive on fourth down and I particulary like the thing the HS coach said about being able to be more creative with your 3rd down play calling. It might be a little silly, but in my experiences playing madden online the most frustrating part might have been having to play defense for four downs against a solid opponent.

The biggest issue I had was partially addressed in the paper. It assumes a first quarter situation as well as even talent on both side of the ball for both teams. It doesn’t account for New Orleans or Baltimore type teams and it doesn’t account for a score that isn’t tied.

by Nate Dogg on Dec 26, 2008 10:40 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

yes but

I think the Mangenius gave an effective counterargument last week when he eschewed a punt and therefore allowed the Seahawks a game-clinching field goal.

That decision should get him fired, but we’ll see.

by Mr Fish on Dec 26, 2008 6:07 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

self selection

the point with not punting is that over the long run it works out. The problem with it is that it will not work 100%, it’s a big picture strategy. But the failures will really stick out and people will fixate on them, while the successes won’t be as glaring (like making a 4th and 2 from the 50 yard-line – it might be vital to winning the game but could easily go under the radar)

by Snuffleupagus on Dec 27, 2008 11:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs