Game Thread: Seahawks @ Cardinals

One month ago, after Week 12, the Cardinals ranked sixth in Total DVOA, third on Offensive DVOA, and 11th in Defensive DVOA. They’ve dropped four of their last five, and they’re trying to avoid the ignominy of ending their season as one of two possible 8-8 division leaders (If the Chargers beat Denver on Sunday night, they’ll be the other.) How has this team fallen so far, so fast?

First, the demolition of Arizona’s running game has taken an already unbalanced game plan and sent it over the edge. The Cardinals ranked fifth in DVOA on the ground through Week 9, and fell to 25th in the second half of the season even before the Patriots game. Tim Hightower, the rookie surprise on everyone’s minds early on, has averaged 22 yards per game in the second half of the season (2.2 yards per carry). Edgerrin James, whose job Hightower took earlier this year, ran four times for 19 yards against the Pats, which pretty much makes him this offense’s most dangerous power player. The Cards rank 29th in goal-to-go DVOA through Week 15, and 25th in rushing DVOA in the red zone. Any team with so many vertical threats will occasionally break big play by default, but the consistency isn’t there at all.

If the Seahawks are to pull this season-ending win off, here’s what needs to improve. In their 26-20 Week 11 loss to Arizona, they put up a 9.6% Defensive DVOA against the pass, which is actually the best they’d done through Week 15. In that game, Warner threw for 395 yards but only one touchdown, and Anquan Boldin (who looks to play in the finale) torched Seattle wwith 13 receptions for 186 yards on 13 catches. Not to be outdone, Larry Fitzgerald caught 10 for 151. It was after this game that things started going bad for the Cards, and the Seahawks do have a bit of defensive momentum going into this game.

Mike Holmgren isn’t the only Seahawk about to depart. As the Mora era falls into place, it’s quite possible that Maurice Morris could be running right out of Seattle after this game. He’s in the final year of his current contract, there are two under-used backs signed by the current administration, and the divide between Holmgren Guys and Ruskell Guys seems longer and colder than ever. Morris had his best career game against the Jets last week, rushing 29 times for 116 yards behind an offensive line two levels below “patchwork”. Morris will start against the Cardinals, and it’s quite possible that he’ll be able to out-do the 19 yards on 10 carries put up by Julius Jones last time against Arizona. Morris has been better than Jones this year in DYAR, DVOA, and Success Rate.

And that, for now, is where we shall leave that.

How will the game go?

Who has more motivation to win this game? The Cardinals are trying to prove that they’re not exactly who we think they are — a misplaced Arena League team, and the most obvious one-and-out in the playoffs. The Seahawks are playing for pride, for jobs, and to send the best coach in history out a winner. Right now, Seattle is playing like the far better team, with far less talent, and it’s going to be near impossible for Arizona to overcome its recent faceplants. Those Seahawks fans who have watched a dismal, underachieving, unlucky squad through most of this season, now have a very good chance to see another surprisingly competitive game, and the most surprising aspect of all is that the numbers point to the Seahawks.

Holmgren goes out a winner, folks. I’m not predicting it any other way.

This is going to be fun.

just scored to tie at 31 all (3 4th quarter TDs). NO may actually get the ball back.

Just for throwing the ball up in the air like that. Bah.

Casey doesn’t miss too many of these.

I’m supposed to go back to church for a memorial service.

Would I be a jerk for not going?

I’d like to get some thoughts on Weaver’s progress as a run blocker? I don’t hear anything about him anymore. I take that as good news.

Random shout of joy!

that the Seahawks have two kickers on the roster.

Babs was right on that one.

This game certainly isn’t boring. I’m pleased with the performance of most of the team so far.

the Dallas score. Whoa.

God I love it when they lose.

per Raible and Moon

Is this game over yet?