The Case for Drafting a Tight End in the First Round

I started this as what I thought would be the first in a series of articles endorsing the Seahawks drafting Fred Davis in the first round. After a little research my opinion changed, drastically. I kept the title because I felt the irony apt. Here's the list of first round tight ends, their DPAR and DVOA in their first season with their team's passing DVOA in parentheses. The list is dominated by players with more name recognition than actual value. It's pretty telling that the set of tight ends drafted before 2003 are all on the cusp or in the midst of deep decline.

2007
Greg Olsen: 3.4, -3.6% (-19.2%)

2006
Vernon Davis: -3.0, -25.4%, (-14.3%)
Mercedes Lewis: 1.4, -1.5%, (-5.3%)

2005
Heath Miller: 14.2, 29.6%, (27.8%)

2004
Kellen Winslow: -1.0, -28.4% (-13.9%)
Ben Watson: N/A

2003
Dallas Clark: 7.8, 24.1% (36.5%)

2002
Jeremy Shockey: 13.3, 4.6% (16.5%)
Daniel Graham: 0.6, -8.9% (9.4%)
Jerramy Stevens: -0.3, -14.1% (10.8%)

2001
Todd Heap: 3.4, 8.8% (-10.1%)

2000
Bubba Franks: 6.3, 8.3% (5.7%)
Anthony Becht: 2.6, 2.8% (-2.1%)

The case for drafting a tight end in the first round speaks volumes for not drafting a tight end in the first round. Tight ends rarely make a dramatic impact their first season and have a short shelf life. Excluding extraordinary talents, tight ends produce at a top level for a mayfly-like 3-5 seasons. Though first rounders rarely bust, quality tight ends do slip to later rounds. Or out of the draft entirely. If you take the top half of all tight ends with a minimum of 25 passes targeting them in 2007, 21 in all, your distribution by round looks like this:

1st: 7
2nd: 2
3rd: 4
4th: 2
5th: 1
6th: 1
7th: 1
Undrafted: 3

Or sequentially: U, 3rd, 1st, 1st, 1st, 3rd, 4th, 2nd, 5th, 1st, 3rd, 4th, 6th, U, U, 1st, 7th, 1st, 1st, 3rd, 2nd.

The presence of 7 first round picks speaks to the fact that first round tight ends rarely bust. But there are no Tony Gonzalezes or Kellen Winslows in this draft. Fred Davis looks like a fine tight end, but he's not a great blocker and talent-wise, probably more Todd Heap than Kellen Winslow. Should Seattle's pick come and no better talent be on the board, it might make sense to draft Davis. Because he represents a position of need, and because Mike Holmgren's system was able to squeeze 9.5 DPAR out of Marcus Pollard's rusty bones an argument could be made that Davis's value to the Seahawks supersedes his inherent value. Still, the case for drafting a tight end, in a class of tight ends more thick than top heavy, over a safety, lineman or wide receiver (say Malcolm Kelly or Early Doucet) is shaky. After all this, I guess we're where we started: draft best available talent regardless of position.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Field Gulls

You must be a member of Field Gulls to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Field Gulls. You should read them.

Join Field Gulls

You must be a member of Field Gulls to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Field Gulls. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9341_tracker