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Recognizing Red Herrings In Highlight Clips; More Love For Chauncey Washington

I'm beat from work, so something light today. Mike Mayock uses a lot of clips to support his assertions. I don't get the NFL network, but I haunt their site often, and see his work. I'm kind of on the fence about Mayock. I appreciate his effort, but he makes some pretty questionable claims. Also, his use of clips seems to routinely destroy the exception. As if one instance of xyz proves that xyz is the norm or even the rule. I understand, in theory, he's employing the iceberg strategy: show the tip, imply the mass underneath.

Anyway, The point of this post is to identify certain red herrings within highlight packages. Here's a quick list.

1. Broken plays

Basic stuff. Rusher running to a hole in the defense. Wide receiver uncovered, especially no deep safety help. Basically any play where the outcome is the highlight rather than the effort.

2. Dominance over substandard competition

Think Dustin Keller spanking Akron.

3. Plays that don't involve NFL skills

It's fine to watch Rashard Mendenhall receive an option pitch and marvel at this athleticism, just don't read too much into it. The option is deceptive, perceived as an outside run, the rusher actually runs almost straight. See:


In the first sequence, the running back runs alongside the quarterback. When he's pitched the ball and changes from decoy to rusher, his route is actually quite straight. That's because the action of the option has already taken him outside. In the second sequence the rusher starts his rush from a typical I-formation. The rusher must be able to run quickly, knowing he is the primary target of the defense's pursuit, from the onset. His path is decidedly less straight. My point is that an option rush looks a lot like an outside rush, but doesn't effectively measure a player's ability to run quickly in a curved line. Red herring.

To evince my points, here's a couple highlight packages. One is of Jonathan Stewart, the other Chauncey Washington. I'm not trying to pick on Stewart, this package is just apt for my purposes.

The first thing you see is Stewart dragging a bunch of Houston defenders. Houston. Next, we get a kickoff return. It's a terrible kick, but that's besides the point. If Seattle drafts Stewart, I hope they're wise enough to not use him on kick returns. Seattle is stocked with returners, and Stewart seems fragile. Next clip, the catch is fine, though he doesn't really do anything other than jog into the endzone. The next two plays are against big ballers, Stanford. Then we get a shotgun draw, not a common play in the West Coast. Etcetra.

On to Washington, you're going to have to skip to 1:52 if you want to avoid punisherRT's "presentation".

First clip, Washington runs from a very vanilla formation, 2 WR, 2 TE, 1 B, against Arizona's 12th ranked defense. He shows a good cut, and makes a nice off-tackle rush. Next, Washington State (38th), another nice cut, powers his way into the end zone. WSU again, works around his blocker, good, positive yardage. Not flashy plays, but flash doesn't matter. Production against top competition, good, NFL moves, that's what one has to look for. Following his blockers, finding cutback lanes versus 16th ranked Arkansas. Punishing 46th ranked Washington. Etcetra.

He's the real deal. I want Chauncey Washington to be a Hawk so bad it burns.

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Good gravy.
I don't know a ton about college football, thus this time of year I can't chime in on much, nor does it really interest me much.

But by watching Chauncey Washington two things struck me:

  1. His vision is fantastic. This is something both he and Jonathan Stewart share.
  2. His acceleration is amazing. It seems like he's already running full speed by the time he gets the ball.
I think Stewart and Washington are very similar runners in that they are more-or-less power north-south backs without too terribly much top-end speed. Perhaps Washington is a bit more shifty. However, Washington ran in a pro-style offense instead of the spread offense Oregon ran, which probably makes him the safer draft pick for the Hawks.
Jimmimoose

by Phildopip on Apr 16, 2008 1:58 PM PDT   0 recs

This is not fair to watch YouTube clips and make
this sort of judgement.

Look at Stewarts stats...

Against Arizona, who you cite for Washington Stewart ran for 28 131 4.7

Punishing Washington? Stewart = check. 32 251 7.8
yeah..251 yards.

15 111 7.4  against Michigan.

He is a much better prospect than Washington. Chauncey has "Ron Dayne" written all over him

by ASUBoyd on Apr 16, 2008 2:13 PM PDT   0 recs

I think you missed my point.
I'm not commenting on Stewart as a prospect at all. I'm simply saying that the highlight package is deceptive.

My argument against Stewart is as it always has been: Too risky for a first round pick.

by John Morgan on Apr 16, 2008 2:18 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Also.
Washington looks and plays nothing like Ron Dayne. Nor will he demand a first pick like Dayne. I think you're attempting to invoke a famous bust to appeal to people's fear, but it's simply not a sound argument.

by John Morgan on Apr 16, 2008 2:20 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

The highlight package?
Isn't that what NFL calibur runners do? They bust outrageous highlights against crappy teams (note stewarts 250+ against South Florida, who was ranked very high but doesnt have top talent) and grind it out against the rest?

I just dont think that your argument is sound either. Watching Washington burst a few 10 yard runs, with sound mechanics is not indicative of future success. Look at these games as a whole.

The Arizona one you commented on? That was his best run of the game. He managed a meager 54 yards and 3.2 yards per carry. That is not quality.

You also mocked Stewarts domination of Stanford. Well, Stanford locked down Washington to the tune of 23 carries for 75 yards. 3.3 a carry.

And in no way am I arguing that he "looks or plays" like Ron Dayne. I am simply saying the way you hype him up you seem to think he will be the next Brandon Jacobs, when in reality he will probably be nothing more than a scrub backup.

by ASUBoyd on Apr 16, 2008 2:46 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Plus
Look at the lines they played behind..

While Oregon was no slouch, they are no USC. That line has first day draft talent across the board. As Seahawk fans we all know what that can do to a runner.

by ASUBoyd on Apr 16, 2008 2:54 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Alright, with this you've convinced me
--well, you and "punisherRT," who I think put together the most useful set of highlight clips I've ever seen:  just play after play after play of Washington making the right read, hitting the hole hard, making the right move at the right time, and knowing when he can simply run over/through people.  (The comparison to Ron Dayne is purely ludicrous.)  I really like the way this dude runs the ball.  Here's hoping we draft him a round early (and why is he projected as a second-day pick?) to make sure we get him.

by The Ancient Mariner on Apr 16, 2008 2:25 PM PDT   0 recs

I am not comparing anything about their game..
Forget the comparison then if it is so "purely ridiculous" ancient mariner.

He is projected to be a second round pick because he is not very talented. I got to see him and Stewart play this year in person and it is light and day.

Also, it needs to be mentioned that for all the needs for a West Coast offense back who can catch, Washington had a handful of receptions all year. He has also been plagued by injury his college career, something Stewart gets knocked for as well.

I am just not impressed by a series of 10 yard runs behind the best line in college football.

by ASUBoyd on Apr 16, 2008 2:50 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Typos
Second round = second day.

by ASUBoyd on Apr 16, 2008 2:51 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Just FYI, for future reference...
It may be a typo, but I think you mean "night and day", not "light and day".  

by The Alaskan on Apr 16, 2008 5:36 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Again, this ain't about Stewart
I like him as a runner; I just don't think he's going to survive the NFL.  IMHO, he's the next Curtis Enis.

by The Ancient Mariner on Apr 17, 2008 5:12 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Based on WHAT?
This is so asinine, I don't even know what to say.

What could POSSIBLY suggest this to you?

Give me a break! Adrian Peterson is THE definition of a flashy, yet injury prone runner. He could not even make it through his freshman season, and was riddled with much worse college injuries than Stewart, yet no one gives him this sort of grief. It is unwarranted. Knock it off.

by ASUBoyd on Apr 18, 2008 2:39 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Actually
I thought AP was a bad bet long-term too.

by The Ancient Mariner on Apr 18, 2008 7:27 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

The New Godwin's Law
We need an NFL draft Godwin's Law for AP references.

For those who don't know about Godwin's Law -
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwin's_law

by Nate Dogg on Apr 18, 2008 12:19 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Chauncey
I like that he'll take the hit instead of falling down.

Man, it's tough to analyze RB's when you are a Seahawks fan.

by pope on Apr 16, 2008 4:36 PM PDT   0 recs

Stewart might be risky for a 1st round pick..
But banking on Washington, as a late round pick to be one of the more involved players in our backfield seems just as risky to me.

The general comments like '' Stewart seems fragile'' are very deceptive. Stewart has not failed at any level of competition, and the facts do not lie, he is a very unique athlete, and regardless of football talent, his athleticism combined with his success, and obvious football talent make for alot of upside. Which again, is a dangerous word to use lightly, because it provokes the thought that his ceiling has  a potential to not be reachable. The point is obvious though, Stewart is a complete sized back, who regardless of play calling, or formation, has the atheltic ability to be plugged in as a full time back, with receiving ability. Touching on his injury history is risky.. I'm used to hearing that when concerning a prospect who is most likely to be in a single back system. As far as I can tell, drafting Stewart, he would not be the primary back, which in turn could possibly limit his chances for getting any injurty.

The highlight package for Washington showed some nice vision, but honestly, why settle for this late round, if you can add a dynamic athlete, who has proven to be a SUCCESSFUL RUNNING BACK in every level he's participated in.

Let's go.

by J Hens on Apr 16, 2008 8:43 PM PDT   0 recs

There's no risk in late round picks...
You pick them hoping that they end up being a solid talent at some point.

The fact is, we don't need a running back so much as to risk getting one in the first round who isn't a sure thing to upgrade our team.

Washington in the 6th or 7th round is like playing the lotto...  buy a ticket and hope you win.

by Dobbs on Apr 17, 2008 9:28 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

If you didn't already know
These highlights are from Stewart's freshmen year.

by vanhawk on Apr 17, 2008 4:11 PM PDT   0 recs

Stewart Injury History
I know this wasn't supposed to be turned into a Stewart post, but it kinda did.  Can I get a verification oh his injury history?

2005 - Ankle Injury, missed two games
2006 - Ankle Injury, missed ? games, still had a highly productive year
2007 - no injuries
Post Combine - Toe surgery for turf toe injury, out 4-6 months

by Nate Dogg on Apr 17, 2008 4:55 PM PDT   0 recs

Little late jumping in the conversation...
But I thought I'd chime in that in 2007, he did have a turf toe injury. I believe he got it in practice before their Arizona game. He didn't miss any games, and broke the Sun Bowl record for most rushing yards with that injury.

His two ankle injuries were more of the same injury. Starting in 2007, it was no problem.

He a speed, and strength runner (And man is he strong; 28 reps @ 225 Lb. Bench during the combine.). He isn't the quickest to hit the hole, and he doesn't make McFadden/Bush cuts, but he can hurdle over and power out of tackles.

And when you look at his stats, you also need to keep in account that he split time with other backs his whole time at Oregon.

by JShufelt on Apr 18, 2008 12:48 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Mayock
Mayock makes a ton of kooky assertions, but in a way that's what I like about him. Or at least, I appreciate that they're all based off his own observation and film study. He's also a really good color guy, on the occasions that he's done some college broadcasts for NFLN.

by langsty on Apr 20, 2008 12:10 AM PDT   0 recs

A little love for Chauncey as well....

I finally found a person who loves Chauncey as much as I do. I don’t know much about the draft, or the NFL for that matter. What I do know is that I have been a fan of this kid since he was a sophmore in high school. He has much more to offer than most people think. I think the fans will be “pleasantly surprised” with his abilites if he becomes a Seahawk. To top it all off, he is a nice person as well.

by Meanchief on Apr 22, 2008 6:40 PM PDT   0 recs

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