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What Can Go Wrong: Dallas Cowboys

In 2007, the Dallas Cowboys were the third best team in football. They featured the 4th ranked pass offense and the 8th ranked rush offense. The cornerstones of that offense are all either young and fresh (Romo, Witten, Barber), or old and indestructible (Owens). Their pass defense ranked 6th and their run defense ranked 14th. The Cowboy front seven is young and deep. Though Zach Thomas will turn 35 before the season starts, the Cowboys can employ him judiciously.  A fresh Thomas, regularly subbed and played to his strengths, is an asset.

The team lost a little depth in the offseason. Players like Akin Ayodele, Jason Ferguson and Anthony Fasano aren’t big names, but make the kind of nuts and bolts contributions that make a unit click. Ayodele is a tough run stopping inside presence, and prior to 2007, Ferguson was their best two gap nose tackle. Neither was truly replaced. Ayodele swapped jerseys with the aforementioned Thomas, and Tank Johnson is the presumed starter at nose.  But both Johnson and Thomas are sure to be subbed regularly, and both a Johnson/Jeremiah Ratliff nose tackle platoon and a Thomas/Bobby Carpenter ILB platoon could represent sizable upgrades over their replacements.

Dallas did not significantly outperform their drive stats. They were not fumble serendipitous or third down lucky. They earned 10.8 estimated wins and won 13. To this young, deep and talented moribund millionaire, Jerry Jones, added Adam “Pacman” Jones. Jones might be unsavory even by Silver and Blue standards, but he’s also supremely talented. Pro Football Prospectus 2007 reports that in just his second season in the league, Jones recorded the second best stop rate on passes targeting the receiver he was covering. I’ve never been very fond of that stat and I’m never surprised by its volatility. It attempts to create a single evaluative standard to measure players doing entirely different things. But Jones satisfies both statistical and scouting standards. If Jones is half the corner his reputation and numbers indicate, the Cowboys have added a formidable playmaking compliment to steady cover corner Terrence Newman.

The Cowboys were a better team than Seattle in 2007. If Adam Jones steps up and stays clean, they could be the best team in football in 2008. Their Achilles Heal is their offensive line. Barber’s hard nosed rushing style and Romo’s grace under pressure helps Dallas look like an above average offensive line (14th run blocking, 7th pass blocking), but (to my eye) their true talent rates as average pass blocking, below average run blocking. Left tackle Flozell Adams has the mix of age, inconsistency and post-contract-year-push letdown that often presages decline or collapse. Right guard Leonard Davis, center Andre Gurode and right tackle Marc Colombo all enjoyed career seasons in 2007. Davis was a bust as a tackle, but flourished as a guard. Early in his career, Colombo, a former first pick by the Bears, suffered a dislocated knee and nerve damage in his left leg. Colombo was penalized with 10 false starts in 2007, perhaps indicating a loss of explosiveness off the snap. All 3 will be 30 by mid-season, not an overly-advanced age for an offensive linemen, and each could hold onto their gains, but it’s unlikely any of the 3 will improve and it is likely any or all of the 3 could regress. That could be the difference between an average line and a well below average line.

Still, the Cowboys should compete. They should be among the NFC’s best, and when Thanksgiving rolls around, it’s easy to see home field at stake. Can you call a game "must win" in June? I think I just did.

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You forgot the

what could go wrong part.

I’m with you on their talent and what they should do this year, but they seem to be shelling out a lot of contracts this year. Are they going to have potential cap hell issues in a few years?

by Nate Dogg on Jun 5, 2008 5:02 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

We still seem to beat them though...

Isn’t it funny, given all the grief Seattle catches for playing in the wretched NFC West, that we routinely beat (and occasionally beat like a drum) all of the NFC East teams at Qwest or on the road.

Dallas is the better team top to bottom but I always feel that in a head-to-head matchup with us they suffer because of the nature of our relative strentghs and weaknesses.

1. Their offensive line is their Achilles heel and our defensive line is our strength, which means that their power running game doesn’t usually generate points for them, or leave them in easy down-and-distance situations. The fact that the game is always played on turf helps us our pass rush and does no favors for their power running game.

2. Their offense is far more reliant than ours on big plays from their receivers, which plays into our bend-but-don’t-break schemes and superior pass rush. We don’t have a shut-down corner, but we generally deny them the big play on offense. Consequently, they rarely can pull away from us in a game whether it’s low scoring or high scoring.

3. Dallas doesn’t really have the personnel to take away the intermediate passing game that our offense relies on. They really only have one bona fide fearsome pass rusher, DeMarcus Ware, but often we can scheme him into pass protection without it being a radical departure from what we do. This notion that Holmgren’s offenses struggle against the 3-4 scheme is basically a misnomer. The offense struggles against personnel, namely big, physical noseguards especially on natural grass (e.g., Cleveland, Pittsburgh). But we’ve put up points against 3-4s where we have personnel advantages (e.g., SF, Arizona), or where we have roughly equal personnel (e.g., San Diego in the Michael Boulware game, at New England in 2004, at Baltimore when they stopped the clock, and at Dallas in the Julius Jones game—we lost those games, but the offense wasn’t the problem).

4. This current group of Cowboys in the Parcells/Phillips era does not finish games well for reasons I am unclear about. Seattle on the other hand, particularly in the Holmgren/Ruskell era, is at least as likely to play well in close-and-late situations as not.

The Cowboys are good, and may in fact be the class of the NFC overall, but I don’t fear them because I think we matchup well.

"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin

by dcrockett17 on Jun 6, 2008 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well 2010 might be a uncapped year

So if they did the contracts right they should be fine

Coach Owens = No Fun Zone

by Scruffy Lefty on Jun 6, 2008 7:06 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm considering skipping

Thanksgiving with my family for the first time in my life because my parents don’t have cable.

by sammy on Jun 5, 2008 5:11 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

So nothing is going to go wrong for them?

cause all you said was that their line will make or break this season for them.

by xSAMx on Jun 5, 2008 6:14 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

these segments are about the Seahawks

the Cowboys are what can go wrong for the Seahawks.

by MFAN on Jun 5, 2008 7:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ahhh....

I was thinking about it as what could go wrong for the cowboys.

by Nate Dogg on Jun 8, 2008 4:38 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Romo is the key

The sports media always dramatically overestimates the importance of the very recent past. The reality is that no one really knows exactly how good Romo is. He really only started playing in the NFL at the end of week 6 (5th game due to bye) in 2006. So he has played a little over 1.5 seasons thus far. His regular season numbers have been excellent during that time IN AGGREGATE. However, he has put up some awful performances during that time, notably a 5 pick performance last year against the Bills. His two playoff performances (although obviously a small sample size) have been atrocious.

Watching him play corroborates what the numbers suggest- a high risk, high reward style of play. Romo will scramble to make the play, improving his overall production but also leading to more miscues. He is getting a relatively shabby 3.4 YPC (not the best stat but somewhat meaningful) on his runs which indicates some at times questionable decision making. Remember: when Romo takes off for the run he is neglecting the opportunity to make a pass for a bigger gain and risking getting hit and injured (even if it would be penalized).

I am not suggesting that Romo is a terrible player in anyway. I just think we don’t know exactly how good is he at this point. We won’t really know until he has played another couple years. I am just hoping that he ends up being not quite as good as people think. His reliance on elite athleticism to make plays will definitely affect his shelf life adversely.

Hasslebeck was given a chance to start at the same point in his career that Romo was afforded the same opportunity. The two are dramatically different quarterbacks though. Hasselbeck’s strength lies in his ability to make multiple reads quickly, a skill that doesn’t deteriorate much with age, so Hasselbeck should continue to be effective for a few more years. With an effective running game and defense, Hasselbeck can hopefully get back to his bread and butter short-pass game. He was being relied on for way too much offense last year. The hawks can potentially be third and short masters if we can have effective short yardage running coupled with hass’s always strong ability to complete the quick pass. Last year: too many 3rd and longs. This year: can we get 4 YPC on 1st and 2nd down?

by michaelfox99 on Jun 6, 2008 12:46 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Some Thoughts from a Fan of the Cowboys

I basically just signed up to post this comment. I like the blog; it’s one of my favorites on SB Nation. Just as a warning, this will get long. But I though I would post it anyway for any interested fans of the Seahawks.

Ratliff will be the starter at NT. He was the starter last year, and nothing has been reported to indicate otherwise. The only exception to this was when Tank started the last game of the season at WASH because the coaching staff sat Ratliff for rest. Judging from coaches’ comments, Thomas represents a sizable upgrade from Ayodele in pass coverage out of our base defense. This seems very plausible. Fasano was replaced by the drafting of Martellus Bennett in the second round this year. Martellus may not start out as the blocker that Fasano was, but it’s dificult to imagine how we would be a downgrade in the passing game. The team also used Tony Curtis, the third string tight end from last year, in some of the same packages that Fasano was in. It’s difficult to see how this would be a problem for us.

I basically agree with the comments about Flo, but the part about Bigg, Gurode, and Colombo’s play declining this year because they will each be 30 seemed a bit odd. I assume you don’t mean a steep one at least. I’ve never read anything that indicates that, and aside from Colombo, none of them have had catastrophic injuries (unless you want to count Haynesworth’s head-stomping). If you mean the aggregate age of the OL is troubling, then I think you might be on to something. However, Colombo’s contract expires after this year and he probably won’t be resigned. Right now it looks like his replacement will be James Marten (third round pick from 2007). Just my speculation, but I imagine the Cowboys are only realistically counting on Flo for another one or two years. His replacement could also well be all ready on the roster in the form of Doug Free (fourth round pick in 2007). For what it’s worth, the team really liked his work in training camp last year.

I’d argue that the real “achilles heal” for the team is the depth at WR. You mentioned Owens being indestructible; our fans will only hope that continues. I like Patrick Crayton, but he is probably more of a #3 WR rather than the starter opposite Owens that he was forced to play last year because of Glenn’s injury. He put up a 16.5 DPAR for receivers with 10-49 passes in 2006,. That was ranked first, with the second person (Greg Lewis) putting up a 8.4 DPAR. He was ranked 25th in DPAR this past year for receivers with a minimum of 50 passes. There is a good chance Glenn may never play again. Jerry Jones admitted this past week that right now Glenn can’t pass a physical. In May, Jones remarked that Glenn had a 50-50 chance of returning at all. And even then no one knows if he can make through the season or what at level he can play.

I only harp on Crayton and Glenn so much because it looks worse beneath them. Sam Hurd and Miles Austin played the roles of 3rd and 4th string WRs last year, respectively. They’re both undrafted free agents th team signed back in 2006. Austin’s play has been mainly on special teams, but the team tried to use him more toward the end of the year on offense because of his speed. However, you know, you have to catch teh football when it’s thrown toward you. The Cowboys didn’t draft a WR this year, but it seems like they’re counting on something from Isaiah Stanback, a fourth round choice from 2007. He was basically red-shirted last year, making the transition from QB (which he played at Washington) to WR. He’s intriguing, but I’m not sure how much you can count from a guy who was only active two times last year, and only played at WR during garbage time. Hopefully, he can make through training camp healthy this year (had problems with shin splints last year, if my memory serves me correctly).

Anyway, I know this will probably look like a manifesto. Hope someone enjoys reading it. Take care.

by Kenny The Shark on Jun 6, 2008 11:53 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for the response.

Just to clarify, I meant that one or more of Davis, Gurode and Colombo would decline because each experienced a career year last season. Their age in of itself doesn’t really concern me, but I think it’s reasonable to assume some overall decline from the offensive line.

The way I look at the receiving corps is this: The Cowboys have a franchise #1 and one of the best tight ends and slot receivers in the NFL. That means that all the team really needs is decent possession receiver, which is one of the easier things to attain in the NFL. Hell, Arnaz Battle is seeking a trade. He could probably be had for a 7th round pick. The team couldn’t count on Glenn last season, and has since added Martellus Bennett and Felix Jones—both better receivers than the players they are replacing. If we can escape a narrow definition of receiver, I think Dallas could claim the best total receiving talent (WR, TE, RB) in the NFL.

by John Morgan on Jun 7, 2008 10:01 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

good point on receiver

I think you are exactly right. if you look at the air game overall and not just WR, the boys should be in good shape, and upgraded from last year with the upgrade of Jones and Bennett, who will add dimensions to the air threat. Even if Glenn doesn’t play. I do hope to see more from the younger guys at WR, including Stanback. And it will be interesting to see if Amendola can make the cut. But I think given what was available at WR in the draft, and the lack of trade market, Jerry Jones was wise to focus on bolstering the passing game through other positions.

by scottmaui on Jun 7, 2008 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Flozell's false starts

cowboys fan here, just wanted to chime in on one small point – Flow’s false starts are because he has partial hearing in his right (toward the QB) ear, so he has more trouble than other players hearing the snap count when there’s crowd noise. Over at bloggingtheboys it is kind a running joke when he will get his first false start each game.

IMO, he is a great LT that anchors the O-line, and the false starts are just a kind of an acceptable price for his talent.

But it isn’t because he is trying to compensate for a loss of explosiveness off the snap.

by scottmaui on Jun 7, 2008 12:41 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

W/R/T

“it isn’t because he is trying to compensate for a loss of explosiveness off the snap”

—the comment to which you’re reacting wasn’t about Adams, it was about Colombo.

by The Ancient Mariner on Jun 7, 2008 1:35 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

duh

you’re right, sorry about that. i read it too quickly. nevermind ;)

by scottmaui on Jun 7, 2008 3:11 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Revenge

Julius Jones will run over these suckers once Thanksgiving rolls around

by seatownsports on Jun 8, 2008 6:39 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Maybe...

If the game were being held in Seattle, where JJ seems to run very well. Unfortunately for the Seahawks it’s being played in Dallas where JJ, over the last couple of years, tends to go down when a stiff breeze hits him. Thus the reason for Dallas not even bothering to offer him a low-ball contract this off-season.
But seriously, JJ seems like a good guy and I sincerely hope he’s able to revive his once promising career with you guys.

by WB3forMB3 on Jun 11, 2008 2:38 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

achilles heel?

Man, you got to be kidding? The Cowboys OL has 3 pro bowlers and many people, including Jamie Dukes of NFL Network, feel that the Cowboys OL is the absolute best OL in the game today and I wholeheartedly agree.

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on Jun 26, 2008 7:01 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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