Redskins Flip Future For Mediocrity Now

by John Morgan on Jul 21, 2008 11:22 AM PDT in NFL News

Old news by now, so let's rip right into what exactly this trade means.

Miami is building for the future and Taylor wanted out. There's little to discuss on their end. Less still your average Seahawks fans should care about.

Seattle faces Washington this season, so this trade does have some immediate impact in that regard. Football Outsiders projected Washington at 6.9 wins and 75% of their projected seasons ended somewhere between Loserville (4-6) and Mediocrity (7-8). The projection is probably a bit optimistic. The team started hot, posting the fifth best pass defense in the NFL through week 9. When the season concluded, the Skins had the 7^th best pass defense in football. That sounds impressive, but it's full of holes.

That same unit, minus only the very talented LaRon Landry and the suddenly and perplexingly overrated Fred Smoot, posted the 32nd ranked pass defense in 2006. The Skins late season surge was dubiously accredited to the spirit of Taylor, but had more to do with two games: The week 16 matchup against the Vikings in which Gregg Williams figured out Minnesota's offense, stacking the box and daring Tarvaris Jackson to pass. Much to Minnesota's detriment, he did and sucked with gusto. Williams is gone and that's not a repeatable strategy. The week 17 matchup against Dallas in which the Redskins, with everything to play for, clobbered a Cowboys squad taking the field in between tuckin' small bills. Football Outsiders applied their backups adjustment, but I wonder what adjustment can be applied for not giving a damn. Minus those two games and Washington's pass defense is exposed for what they are, a good secondary, too old at the corners, with very little pass rush.

The Redskins are old and thin on both lines. They spent this last draft loading up on skill position players. When week 12 rolls around and the Skins travel into Seattle, Jason Taylor could be playing for a worse overall team than the one he left. If he plays out of his mind, repeats his DPOY showing from 2006, Taylor could conceivably add another win. That should be enough to push Washington's next 4-12 season to 2009.

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Objective thinking

Put down the Haterade John. You ask for objective thinking but spew nothing but hatred. Id love to hear where you think your hometown Seahawks will end up at the end of the year, and then i would love to engage in some friendly debate with you.

Top 10 Defense last year, and you find a way to bash the Skins? Get a life, Clueless in Seattle, wake up and smell the fact that you just lost your NBA team, and are one day closer to another year without an NFL championship.

Whats your next blog, that Jim Zorn was actually hated in Seattle?

by 0-23 on Jul 21, 2008 1:08 PM PDT 0 recs

I'm a Blazers fan.

Haterade? What on earth is Haterade?

by John Morgan on Jul 21, 2008 1:10 PM PDT up 0 recs

See John, Haterade is a blend

of everyones favorite sports beverage, Stuart Scott, and an unfair dislike of a person/team/entity. By drinking this beverage you will be far more inclined to take an unfavorable bias towards whatever you may run into over the next 6-8 hours.

Personally I like to stick to Drank and slowing my roll, but thats just me.

Oh, and thank you a million times for the interview you had with them on Owen Schmitt, it’s made work / the offseason so much better.

by Nate Dogg on Jul 21, 2008 1:21 PM PDT up 0 recs

My only questions about Purple Drank, something I always called Sizzurp...

is why has no one ever made the obvious Flaming Moe connection? I’ve never heard it called Flaming Moe. What’s up with that?

by John Morgan on Jul 21, 2008 1:29 PM PDT up 0 recs

Please find the shift key

Apostrophes are your friend. Anyways, odd as it may sound, most Seattle fans, including JM, are pretty ambivalent about the Redskins, although we do enjoy beating them in the playoffs regularly.

Also, what does the fact that the Sonics just moved have to do with the projections by a national outfit (Football Outsiders) on the Redskins’ season?

Finally, I definitely appreciate your budding wit. “Clueless in Seattle”? Man, those Sleepless in Seattle jokes never get old, even for the past fifteen years. If you could work a Pike’s Place reference into your amazing retort, I would recommend it. Throwing salmon? Ha!

"Hey, guess what? Nobody cares who would win in a crazy fantasy fist-fight between Anne Frank and Lizzie Borden." The Monarch

by crushedoptimist on Jul 21, 2008 1:28 PM PDT up 0 recs

Haha, a troll is telling others to "get a life"?

Irony overload—nice try, come again.

by redwolf75 on Jul 22, 2008 9:04 AM PDT up 0 recs

Exposed

Washington’s pass defense is exposed for what they are, a good secondary, too old at the corners, with very little pass rush.

Didn’t they just go a long ways to solving the very little pass rush part? I like this deal only from the perspective that Washington has been dying for a pass rush for a few years now, they ranked dead last 2 or 3 years ago and 16th last year.

Unfortunately I can’t really get behind the idea of trading a second round pick (I would have thought their flashy second round haul this year would have really reinforced the importance of draft picks) for a player that will 1) almost certainly decline and 2) retire possibly at the end of this year, most likely at the end of next season.

by Nate Dogg on Jul 21, 2008 1:40 PM PDT 0 recs

Taylor helps, but he's not a cure all.

Andre Carter is hitting his decline. Ditto Marcus Washington and Cornelius Griffin. Montgomery is good at manipulating single blocks, but he’s slow and won’t get after the quarterback. There’s not a lot of depth behind them and the team doesn’t have much in the way of situational players. Taylor certainly adds to their pass rush, but some of it was already eaten by age. It’s a net plus, but on a team pretty far from “one player away.”

by John Morgan on Jul 21, 2008 1:55 PM PDT up 0 recs

To sum up...

There’s too much age.

Except for LaRon Landry. He is a huge stud. Remember how much ground that guy covers? Ridiculous.

"Hey, guess what? Nobody cares who would win in a crazy fantasy fist-fight between Anne Frank and Lizzie Borden." The Monarch

by crushedoptimist on Jul 21, 2008 1:59 PM PDT up 0 recs

re:

“Andre Carter is hitting his decline”

Evidence?

06 – 44 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 0 FF
07 – 56 tackles, 6 sacks, 0 FF
08 – 55 tackles, 10.5 sacks, 4 FF

All of his production last year came with constant double teams. You can’t just make a statement without being able to back it up.

Marcus Washington and Cornelius Griffin on the decline? Sure, I can agree with that. They’re still good players when healthy, but they aren’t what they once were.

While you’re at it, why don’t we cherry pick games of other teams? Why don’t we take away Seattle’s victories over Baltimore, who were clearly in disarray at the end of last season? Or maybe take away the Patriots victory over the Redskins since the game was obviously an outlier when looking at the season as a whole?

I’m sorry, but you can’t qualify that as actual “analysis” because you can cherry-pick games for every team and you can expect to face a team that has packed it in or just plain sucks at least once a year.

And then to conclude Taylor adds a win to Washington’s column to improve to 4-12. That’s laughable.

I’m not saying the Redskins are automatically destined for the playoffs. But I have no doubt they’re a good team and a better one now that Taylor has been traded for. In addition, Taylor will almost certainly be there for more than just one year. Also, the Giants had worse metrics last year than the Redskins last year. Just thought that was worth pointing out.

www.baseball-intellect.com

by NovaO on Jul 21, 2008 3:34 PM PDT up 0 recs

It's funny how the Giants winning the Super Bowl has caused people to throw reason out the door.

Average teams can get hot, it happens in every sport, but it doesn’t mean that the Giants winning the Super Bowl is somehow precedent setting.

I didn’t really cherry pick games. My point was (and these splits are courtesy PFP 2008) that the Redskins posted the 5th best pass defense from week 1-9, the 25th ranked pass defense from 10-12 (following the loss of Sean Taylor and Carlos Rogers), and then the 9th ranked pass defense from weeks 13-17. Including the wins against the Vikings and the Cowboys. The game against the Cowboys was especially helpful for their pass defense DVOA, because Dallas had a top 5 pass DVOA entering the game and Skins’ pass defense dominated them. For DVOA, one very dominant game disproportionately influences the overall total. DVOA can’t properly account for factors like a team with a mediocre passing DVOA, like Minnesota (19th), having their quarterback exposed with a simple game plan, or a team with a great passing DVOA, like Dallas (4th), clearly not trying. Therefore, the system thinks the Redskins have a better pass defense than the true talent of their defense would indicate.

I’m well aware that Carter had his best season in 2007, but research has shown that defensive ends typically decline after 29. Does that mean that Carter will fall off a cliff in 2008? Of course not, but it’s reasonable to think he might decline this year. He’s not an elite defensive end that should defy the aging curve and he’s at an age where decline can be expected. So if the team is a very borderline playoff contender in 2008, and their now second best pass rusher is at an age where he can be expected to produce less and less until he retires (along with a good portion of its offense and defense), it’s probably not a good move to trade away young, cheap players betting on an improbable run in 2008-2009.

Oh, and I implied Taylor would add a win so Washington could end up 5-11. 4-12 should be next season.

by John Morgan on Jul 21, 2008 4:08 PM PDT up 0 recs