Saints Outdo Redskins, Trade Two Picks For Shockey

by John Morgan on Jul 21, 2008 1:08 PM PDT Comment 11 comments

New Orleans moves a 2nd and 5th round pick for Jeremy Shockey. Here's the basic breakdown of this: Shockey is a bit undervalued by some after playing keep away with the unstoppably inaccurate Eli Manning. Unfortunately, Shockey is overvalued by many, many more. For being larger than life, and, ugh, white. By season's start, Shockey will be 28. The Saints are getting one more top season from Shockey and then should anticipate some decline. And that's part of the problem; the Saints shouldn't expect to compete this season. It's possible, but I doubt Shockey is the player that gets them over the hump. Sedrick Ellis is a player to build around, but moving up to acquire him cost New Orleans most of their draft. If the cardinal mistake for Washington trading for Jason Taylor was mortgaging the future when contention wasn't in sight, the cardinal mistake for New Orleans is overvaluing one player, putting too many chips in 1-2 seasons of production, and mistaking a fluke run in 2006 as their team's true talent level.

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Shouldn't expect to content

I would have thought they were the front runners in a pretty weak NFC South. Unless the Buc’s manage to land Favre, of course….

The Saints were in the playoff hunt the last week of last season, even if they didn’t exactly control their own destiny. And that’s after the disatrous start they had. If their backs can stay healthy they should be at least an above average offense, especially if Meachem can keep in shape. Their D is vastly improved, but thats going to be pretty contingent on whether someone can supplant HIZ for the second starting corner spot.

by Nate Dogg on Jul 21, 2008 2:05 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

The Deion Branch Trade

I see that you don’t like the Taylor or Shockey trades. I agree since I do not think that the Redskins or Saints are elite teams so they should not be giving away high picks for older players. When Seattle did the Branch deal, they were in a position to mortgage their future because they had just made it to a Superbowl and were still playing in an easy division. Still, the price of a first round pick was just way too high (even without hindsight that Branch would get hurt). Although Branch had played in all 16 games in 2005, he only played in 13, 15, and 9 in the three years prior. Missing 11 games due to injury in your first four seasons should be a huge red flag. Considering Branch’s injury history, and the fact that he wasn’t even a top 10 WR by any metric, I cannot fathom why we felt he was worth a first rounder.

When its all said and done I see three coulda beens’ that will make this era the ‘great’ era for Seahawks football, but not the superbowl era:
1. Keeping Shaun and not Hutch
2. Trading for Branch
3. Playing Shaun

by michaelfox99 on Jul 21, 2008 2:13 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Am I the only one?

who thinks that draft picks are WAY overvalued? A 2nd and a 5th for an elite (if interested) TE?

What are the odds of a 2nd round picking playing more than 1 or 2 years in the league? A 5th?

Both of these deal seem like tremendous steals. Given that salaries are rarely guaranteed, the injury risk to a player is smaller than it would be in other leagues.

Furthermore, how much better is a 5th rounder than an undrafted FA or other journeyman FA? Given that these guys at best are filling out your depth chart, and not starters, what gives? I’m not an NFL guy really, can someone illuminate?

M, period. Fresh, comma.

by manzell on Jul 21, 2008 3:44 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

uh, what I mean is

the risk of getting stuck with a huge, untradeable contract are lower.

M, period. Fresh, comma.

by manzell on Jul 21, 2008 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dude, we get it. You're militantly ignorant about the worth of young players.

by John Morgan on Jul 21, 2008 4:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

chill out

I don’t know where you get “militantly ignorant” from, especially seeing as how my post is looking for someone to illuminate further how a team would come to a decision that these are fair trades (from either side). The accusation of militarily ignorant can swing both ways, and I’d argue that the Graham’s of the world are just as ignorant as to the value of cost certainty to billion dollar organizations… but that’s not this blog.

But whatever, this is football, not baseball. The calculus is different. The realities of the game are different. I’ve asked a simple question: What is it that teams can reasonably expect from a future first round pick? A future 5th or 6th rounder? What percentage of guys in each round make the team? What are teams expecting of the veteran players they’ve traded for?

M, period. Fresh, comma.

by manzell on Jul 21, 2008 4:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fair enough.

As little respect as I have for your opinions, I do think I shouldn’t have been as much of a dick to you.

I think you need to look into your own questions. It’s probably a better step than asking fifty million of them as if they prove a point. Cade Masey and Richard Thaler did a study that found that late first round and early second round picks are the most valuable, because the talent doesn’t drop off too much and because their salaries are much lower. Picks throughout the second round are very valuable. As I noted below, the Saints are giving up a young, talented and cheap player for an old, expensive (about 10 million against the cap over the next two seasons) player. Unless Shockey, who is not an elite tight in the eyes of anyone but himself and the media, is truly crucial to the Saints contending in the next season, and it’s nearly impossible to argue he is, this is probably a bad move.

by John Morgan on Jul 21, 2008 4:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

lo and behold

Of the 11th TE’s taken in the first round since 2000, none could be considered a bust. The worst of the group are serviceable guys like Daniel Graham, and that’s without taking into account blocking abilities. Shockey’s been the 2nd best of the group (Behind Kellen Winslow, perhaps third, as Vernon Davis looked pretty impressive). Then again, imagine what Shockey would be doing if he had the other Manning delivering him the ball those first few years.

To me, a guy like Shockey will benefit from being removed from the New York situation in the same way that TO did getting out of SF and Philly, or Randy Moss going to NE, that should be good for 1 season of improved performance and best behavior. If he was in a contract year I’d say he’s a lock to reemerge as a top-flight TE, but alas, he’s signed through 2011 (I think, through the 2010 season). It seems clear to me that he quit on the Giants, and whatever your stance on the existence of ‘chemistry’ are, I think it is safe to say that whatever was going on in New York wasn’t helping him any.

M, period. Fresh, comma.

by manzell on Jul 22, 2008 12:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, terrible trade for the Saints.

They should consider 2006 an outlier. FootballOutsiders was pretty unequivocal that the models all suggested that the Saints got very lucky that year. I remember the main issue being that Brees’s production from very deep passes was very good and this stat is wildly variant from year-to-year. I mean this shouldn’t be a huge surprise because everyone admitted that they threw that team together under less than ideal circumstances and they weren’t SUPPOSED to contend.

Draft picks have a lot more value than the behavior of NFL general managers would suggest. The trouble is that the ignorant sports media (and a good number of fans) are very quick to judge a regime and call for firings. This means that they have to try to make stupid deals like this and throw away their future because they know if they don’t win immediately they will lose their jobs. This is obviously a speculative comment but I imagine it has some truth.

Eric Johnson is a pretty decent TE. Thats what makes this even more of a head scratcher. TE isn’t even a huge need for the Saints.

The other thing I don’t quite understand is why the Giants are so through with Shockey. I mean who else do they have? Kevin Boss? Boss caught like 15 balls all of last year including the playoffs. His best game was 50 yards and he had two TD’s all season + playoffs. I do remember him making a few timely catches late in the year. What have you done for me lately huh? Boss might turn out to be a great player, but gambling on that based on a handful of catches is ridiculous.

by michaelfox99 on Jul 21, 2008 5:52 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

well, he did quit on the team

It’s clear, Shockey 100% wanted away from that coach. He didn’t stand on the sidelines during the super bowl, I don’t think he visited the President with the rest of the team to be congratulated for winning the Super Bowl.

From a football standpoint, that’s pretty unforgivable.

M, period. Fresh, comma.

by manzell on Jul 22, 2008 12:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Who Cares

Who cares about the stupid sideline stuff. The sports media loves parading this garbage and you seem to eat it all up manzell. In particular, you claim Shockey is a top-flight TE (or can be if he chooses to be) because you heard it elsewhere, or perhaps it was the result of your own analysis…

Shockey is not the second best TE drafted since 2000 bro. Not by a long shot. What are you basing this on? ESPN.COM? Dude, WOW. What about Clark, Witten, Miller, the list goes on?

Shockey has never posted a top 5 Tight End DPAR or DVOA, EVER. His best years were by far his first few seasons and he hasn’t been anywhere near that since. He is now league average at best. It is totally speculative to assume that he has had the ability to play better all these years and lack of ‘chemistry’ has held him back. Doesn’t Ockham’s razor demand that the simplest explanation, ie Shockey is not that hot, is probably the best explanation?

Why does the media totally overestimate Shockey’s worth? Maybe because he plays in New York. Maybe because he draws a ton of attention to himself whenever he does something good. Maybe the sports media is focused on raw data like total yards which ignore how a TE is utilized from one offense to the next?

The simple (and true) story here would be:

The Giants used to like Shockey. He used to be a much better Tight End. More recently Shockey has not met expectations and is not worth his big salary. Second year TE Kevin Boss, while somewhat unproven on the field, has won the hearts of the Giants coaching staff. He runs his routes and makes his blocks and is CHEAP. So the Giants trade Shockey for picks. All this character/chemistry crap is SOO stupid. If he was playing a lot better the Giants wouldn’t care at all.

Thats it. Doesn’t make for much of a story though does it?

The Seahawks just drafted a TE, John Carlson, with a second round pick. Man am I glad we did that instead of giving that pick AND another late round pick to the Giants for Shockey. Plus the hawks are actually CONTENDERS and I still think we made out better.

by michaelfox99 on Jul 22, 2008 7:05 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs