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The Tape: Bears @ Seahawks 2nd Qtr

Slow quarter. Not as much to report as I'd like, but the inactivity lent me a chance to investigate a hunch.

  • I couldn't be much less impressed with Matt Forte who looks more like a three-team retread than a young feature back. On the second play of the quarter, Forte cut into center Olin Kreutz and essentially tackled himself. You can give partial credit to Leroy Hill for forcing the cutback and partial credit to Craig Terrill for steering Kreutz, but full discredit to Forte who looked slow, stiff and upright on almost every rush.

  • Seattle's first drive was mistake riddled. Walter Jones and Jeb Putzier botched blocks on the third play, sandwiched by botched blocks by Mike Wahle on the second and fourth plays.

  • Some of the blame is Charlie Frye's. Frye takes an eternity to pass, and that weakness is all about his very limited read. If you are wondering how Kent was targeted seven times in the first half, and the rest of Seattle's wide receiving corps was targeted just twice, you need only look at Frye's eyes. He locks onto one receiver and waits until that man is open. Kent earned Frye's confidence on Saturday and became a de facto Steve Smith. Even when Frye checked down, he almost invariably found the underneath man on the same side of the field as Kent. Kent played mostly out of the split end formation on the offensive left. Frye targeted his backs on 7 passes, 1 to the right, 2 up the middle and 4 to the left. The pass right was a swing pass to Morris out of split backs on 3rd and 3, with Morris the designed target. Limited read sounds fixable but reading coverage is an essential skill for a quarterback. Frye, even at Akron, has always waited on his man. Until he evolves his read, and it is likely he won't, Frye will always be a magnet for sacks and encompassed by interceptions.

  • Moving on from that cheery note, let's talk T.J. Duckett. Duckett, poisoned from the start by some selective quoting and since slagged for not fumbling the ball, did what everyone's been pissing and moaning for him - really, any Seahawk - to do, and did so against a top 10 team at preventing it: Duckett converted short yardage.

    Fourth play of Seattle's second drive of the second quarter, 4th and 1, Chicago 38. Seattle breaks in the keenly disguised 1 WR, TE, Hb, I-formation. The Bears, naturally, break in a Base 4-3, with 10 men in the box. Duckett takes it up behind the right guard, finds nothing, plunges forth and splits Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs for two and the first.

  • Watching that almost beautiful, almost touchdown pass from Frye to Kent on the eighth play of that same drive, I thought someday Kent makes that catch. And on that someday, Seattle should have real-deal #1 wide receiver.

  • Josh Wilson had another fine quarter. He's a disruptive blitzer, where his quickness off the edge is startling and enough to force panic throws even if Wilson is easily blocked. And, not to get ahead of myself, but you might not have noticed that Wilson made three plays in pass coverage: two pass defenses and a tackle for -2 yards. Otherwise, the Bears didn't even bother to target his man.

  • Good double coverage by Kelly Jennings and Deon Grant to prevent a touchdown, but how the hell did Chicago get so close in the first place? Seattle's defensive scheme was almost permissive and that moronic strategy got me thinking: Didn't Seattle employ this same quasi-prevent last season? Let's see.

    Here's my criteria, and no, I don't know the results starting this:

    Drives Started by the opponent with less than four minutes remaining in the second quarter, but not less than 30 seconds.

    Over the 16 game regular season, Seattle faced 12 such scenarios. Those drives averaged 29.6 yards and 1.67 points per drive. In 2007, Seattle was the league leader in both yards per drive (24.24) and points per drive (1.39). Assuming Seattle was attempting to bend and thereby kill the clock, the 29.6 yards might be justifiable, but the 1.67 points allowed is not. In theory, a defense with the clock on its side has the advantage, but 1.67 points per drive would drop Seattle's defense from best in the league to middle of the pack: between the Jaguars (1.65) and the Giants (1.68).

    In other words, John Marshall, cut out all the stupid, damn, ultra-conservative, quasi-prevent defenses to close out the second quarter. You're hurting your team.

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It'd be nice if Football Outsiders did a study on regular defense vs. prevent defense

to see if it really does work.

I live in georegia but i dont see rusia no where not even sound but they says theres tanks should i be worrie-Yahoo Answers

by Phildopip on Aug 18, 2008 3:33 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Speaking of Football Outsiders:

John, what do you think of DYAR as opposed to DPAR? To me it’s harder to wrap my mind around something like DYAR when it doesn’t represent solid contributions like DPAR.

To clarify: I find it easier to see a players worth based on points contributed as opposed to yardage.

I live in georegia but i dont see rusia no where not even sound but they says theres tanks should i be worrie-Yahoo Answers

by Phildopip on Aug 18, 2008 4:15 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I do too.

I think DYAR has some merit, though I’m not sure how to justify that thought. From a marketing standpoint, I wonder why you would replace a somewhat established stat and acronym with another. I would think DPAR was alienating enough the first time. Also, it sounds kind of silly. DPAR sounds formal. DYAR sounds piratey.

Overall, I think it’s a pretty trifling change that I will quickly get used to.

by John Morgan on Aug 18, 2008 4:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

it does

It doesn’t take football outsiders to figure that out. Every defensive coach in the league uses the prevent defense. That should tell you enough.

It’s frustrating to watch sometimes because it feels passive and we all hate being passive. But the whole point of the prevent is to stop someone from scoring quickly, which is done by the pass and easier done by the long pass. Lining up in base 4-3 isn’t much good against four wide receivers.

Marshall’s defense appears to use the prevent a lot, but it sure gets a lot of sacks when the chips are down. I remember quite a few sacks in 2005 using that three-man rush.

by djafrot on Aug 18, 2008 7:53 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Everybody *can* be wrong, you know

and sometimes the conventional wisdom is anything but wise; or hadn’t you noticed how rare a thing common sense really is? Time was, every reputable European doctor used leeches—so by your logic, that should mean they’re an effective treatment for fevers, right?

by The Ancient Mariner on Aug 19, 2008 6:45 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

To add to this point,

in baseball guys used to bunt all the time. Almost as if it was a desired outcome, regardless of the batter/pitcher matchup (outside of the real sluggers, of course). But recent studies have shown that it’s a losing effort in many situations which have traditionally seen it employed as a primary tactic.

Everybody was wrong in that case.

There is no such thing as innocence, only degrees of guilt.

by misterjonez on Aug 19, 2008 8:21 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

er, right, things DO change

My assumption is that coaches in the NFL, who are paid a crapload of money to sit there all day and think about this kind of stuff, have a better grip on things than we do.

The only thing I can see that clouds this is whether being in prevent is the “safe” thing for a D-cord to do rather than the right thing… i.e. it looks worse for a team to get beat by an 80 yard bomb with 2 minutes left than to get beat by 8 passes inching up the field over that 2 minutes.

I dunno. Prevent works for me like a hot damn… in Madden 08.

by djafrot on Aug 19, 2008 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

If you play by "the book"

then you always have a defense for it not working (“I did the right thing, and they beat it anyway”); if you go against “the book” and it happens not to work, then you are perceived as being stupid even if in fact you did the smarter thing. This is why “the book” so often changes so excruciatingly slowly even when it’s stupid. As it sometimes is. Coaches are in the forest; that’s why they so often can’t see it for the trees. Their opinion of the trees is unparalleled; their ideas as to how the overall forest looks, not so much.

by The Ancient Mariner on Aug 19, 2008 8:08 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Duckett

Still not a fan of Duckett. Occasional good runs, but not explosive, and runs nowhere near as tough as he should with that body of his. My bet here is that Schmitt could do everything Duckett could do—and a lot more—very, very soon.

by Hawkdawg on Aug 18, 2008 8:41 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Z Rollins for d-coordinator 09

or it might be Donnatell.

Hell, any DC who’s coaching ability is near that of the talent level of the defensive players on the team.

by puerto on Aug 19, 2008 1:48 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Do we keep Haskill

to keep symetry in the offense with beck?

by kidder95 on Aug 19, 2008 8:00 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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