Seahawks Unaffected By Number Of Active Receivers
I wasn't sure what to write today, so Mike Sando comes to the rescue.
Seattle would prefer to keep five receivers active on game days. The table might show why. The Seahawks' offense scored 10.5 additional points per game when the team kept a fifth receiver active for games last season (based on information available in official NFL gamebooks). I can't prove there's correlation here, but the team did average more than two additional passing first downs per game with the extra receiver available.
I don't see how having an extra receiver would so dramatically affect scoring and I imagine this is just data molestation, but let's see. Let's try to clean this up a little. The first thing that must be removed is points created by the defense and special teams, neither of which is influenced by an additional receiver. Next, since bend but don't break defenses exist, but are rare and often don't carry year to year, let's compare yards rather than points. That should further remove the impact of good field position created by the defense and special teams. Then we'll adjust for pace, finding yards per drive. Finally, we'll use drive stats to create an opponent adjustment. So what are we left with?
9 games with 4 WRs
Avg: 322.22 yards
Outlier: @ Pittsburg: 144 yards
Avg w/o Outlier: 344.50
7 Games with 5 WRs
Avg: 384.43
Outlier: @ Atlanta: 501 yards
Avg w/o Outlier: 365.00
You don't have to remove the outlier, but I do think it's instructive. I refer to the Pittsburgh contest as an outlier because it's more than two standard deviations (71.07 yards) from the average of all nine contests. I refer to the Atlanta contest as an outlier because it was week 17, the Falcons were in ruins, Seattle was resting many of its starters and nothing within that game represented reality. Now let's adjust for pace. I tallied the total number of drives, removed punt and kick return TDs and removed end of half kneel downs.
9 games with 4 WRs
Yards Per Drive: 27.88
YPD w/o Outlier: 29.32
7 games with 5 WRs
YPD: 31.66
YPD w/o Outlier: 30.00
Even more than before, most of the difference lies in two games, Pittsburgh and Atlanta. But we're not done, let's now adjust for opponent.
9 games with 4 WRs
Average YPD: 28.21
w/o Outlier: 28.58
Percentage of Average YPD: 99%
Percentage of Average YPD w/o Outlier: 103%
7 games with 5 WRs
Average YPD : 29.00
w/o Outlier: 28.65
Percentage of Average YPD: 109%
Percentage of Average YPD w/o Outlier: 105%
So, removing the impact of defense and special teams, and adjusting for opponent and pace, Seattle did perform substantially better with five active wide receivers than it did with four. That difference, though, is almost entirely comprised of a 144 yard disaster in Pittsburgh and a week 17, 501 yard free for all against Atlanta. The seven games featuring five active wide receivers also encompass the three games Shaun Alexander missed with injury. Further, no adjustment has been made for the quality of receiver lost or the quality of that receiver's replacement. Notably, D.J. Hackett had but one reception for seven yards in the nine weeks Seattle activated four receivers, but 31 receptions for 377 yards in the seven weeks Seattle activated five receivers.
All that data rigmarole can be boiled down to something simple: I don't expect the number of wide receivers active on Sunday to have any impact on Seattle's offense.
0 recs |
28 comments
Comments
Well way to take the fun out of that comment
Coach Owens = No Fun Zone
by Scruffy Lefty on Sep 2, 2008 3:40 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
could it be that...
…in games where we carried five WR’s, Holmy was expecting to pass a lot using lots of WR’s on the field at a time, and pass is what we did well?
by djafrot on Sep 2, 2008 3:47 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
sample size is too small...
but Sando is wrong. You can prove correlation very easily (and he in fact does). What you can’t prove is CAUSATION.
Also, we could use Seneca as a WR if it came down to it.
We could also use multiple TE’s.
Plus our backfield can catch now.
We should crush Buffallo. When the matchupalooza coming?
I am starting Nate and sitting Evans on my fantasy team. Nate should get a lot of looks with engram still out and the Bills pass D is horrible. Evans should get shut down by Tru. Hopefully thatsa microcosm for the game…
by michaelfox99 on Sep 2, 2008 3:57 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
John,,
go back to your gaming den and put your retainer back in….
ya math nerd
Why? Because the Seahawks rock my socks.
by Chickadee on Sep 2, 2008 3:58 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Not funny.
And inappropriate.
I live in georegia but i dont see rusia no where not even sound but they says theres tanks should i be worrie-Yahoo Answers
by Phildopip on Sep 2, 2008 4:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
wow freak out more
it was a lovingly bestowed compliment in a sarcastic tone
Calm down
Why? Because the Seahawks rock my socks.
by Chickadee on Sep 2, 2008 6:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It may have been lovingly bestowed
but it was still unfunny.
I live in georegia but i dont see rusia no where not even sound but they says theres tanks should i be worrie-Yahoo Answers
by Phildopip on Sep 2, 2008 9:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Talk about taking the piss out of something
I mean seriously, lighten up man and get off my case.
Why? Because the Seahawks rock my socks.
by Chickadee on Sep 2, 2008 10:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It was rather lacking in the whole humor department.
by BrianL on Sep 2, 2008 10:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bitch about it more
Why? Because the Seahawks rock my socks.
by Chickadee on Sep 2, 2008 10:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Your style here doesn't really match with the overall presentation and direction of this blog.
by Robert on Sep 3, 2008 9:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ok.
Let’s not drill this into the ground. First, not everyone here has to like everyone else here. We’re just going to have learn to ignore the people we find objectionable for whatever reason. If someone pulls a stupid hoax then by all means bury them, but if someone just rubs you the wrong way, we’re all going to have to deal with that. I deal with that.
Second, and not to single out anyone, but comments and especially fanposts should be treated as a letter to the editor. It should be proofread, it should have substance. Pop it into Word if you must. The comments and fanposts on this site are as much Field Gulls as anything I write. That doesn’t mean it has to be serious, by all means no, and I’ve put virtually no restrictions on what can be posted, but make it quality. I respect quality.
Finally, game threads are mostly free of sanction, but if we can keep them somewhat game related and, I don’t know, less-goofy, it would be appreciated.
by John Morgan on Sep 3, 2008 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
One more thing.
I’m taking a hard line against “Seahawks get disrespected” fanposts and comments. They’re stupid. Every fan thinks their team is disrespected. Who cares.
by John Morgan on Sep 3, 2008 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm with ya chick
people don’t get the praise-masquerading-as-snark humor as much as they should. your comment was an amusing throwaway, nothing more and nothing less.
by shams on Sep 3, 2008 12:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
thanks
glad to see someone else in the camp
Why? Because the Seahawks rock my socks.
by Chickadee on Sep 3, 2008 2:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just a little note
But Chickadee has been a good FG representative at Buffalo Roams this week. So we can lay off a little bit.
Coach Owens = No Fun Zone
by Scruffy Lefty on Sep 3, 2008 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What's wrong with math?
Sports is numbers.
by iheartjavelinas on Sep 2, 2008 5:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yards per drive.
I’ll fix that so it’s clearer.
by John Morgan on Sep 2, 2008 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
thanks
this is the kind of clear thinking followed by real analysis that makes this the best sports blog out there.
all my non seahawk fan friends are totally jealous.
by Snuffleupagus on Sep 2, 2008 4:28 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
No homer talk
I posted today on the seahawkaddicts blog featuring their 2008 season preview w/ predictions of course. All their picks involved Seattle dominating.
Though, that is not necessarily bad, I appreciate objective analysis sometimes.
I go to Seahawkaddicts for quantity, Fieldgulls for quality.
Thanks
by Havik on Sep 2, 2008 4:41 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
why exclude points...
and only include yards? I agree that this is a small sample size, and a somewhat difficult question to consider with TONS of variables, but I like talking about these sort of questions. The statistical analysis on this site is the main reason I have started coming here regularly. I also don’t have the tools or inclination do such analysis myself, so I’m going to look like quite the dick trying to pick some holes in this, but I mean absolutely no disrespect.
I’m not really sold on yards per game or yards per drive as being a great indicator of offensive success. I know the guys at Pro Football Prospectus push this idea, and I tend to agree: rankings based on total yardage tend to be flawed. What about looking at yards per play since a drive can be influenced by a number of factors not directly related to offensive performance per say, such as penalties, current game score, field position, etc. I know you already removed kneel downs, but I think it could go farther.
I also think looking at scoring would have some benefit (removing defensive scoring certainly, that was the right call, but does the Hawks fifth receiver participate on special teams, might there be some variation there?). I’m just thinking that maybe the fifth receiver provides some benefit that could influence scoring more so than yardage; for example more personnel might provide different looks in the red zone, making the offense better at scoring points without having a significant impact on yardage.
Just some thoughts, which very may have been thought of already and dismissed, but I thought I’d throw in my two cents. Love this stuff.
by d.alexander on Sep 2, 2008 5:27 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
FO does not push yards per drive as a flawed stat.
And the yards per drive rankings are taken from their website. If you want to look into red zone success in the two different data sets, feel free, but you are taking a small sample, making it smaller and introducing new variables. And I don’t see why adding an additional receiver would have much impact on red zone success. The 4 wide receiver set is among the rarest formations in the red zone, and Seattle doesn’t run a 5 wide receiver set. I went on yards per drive instead of points because yards per drive is the best measure of strictly an offense’s success that I have access to. The product of offense, defense and special teams, that is total field position, is points, and points per drive reflect all three factors. Yards per play wouldn’t be instructive, debiting teams that are more methodical and rewarding teams that are boom or bust. It’s not how many plays it takes for a team to be successful on any given drive, only the success of that drive that matters.
by John Morgan on Sep 2, 2008 6:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
good points
FO do emphasize yards per game as a flawed stat, not yards per drive. I was also thinking about yards per drive being relatively unimportant if you don;t consider field position (a 50 yard drive starting on your own 20 is worth a heck of a lot less than a 50 yard drive starting at midfield) but I take your point that defense and special teams have way more impact on field position than offense, which would be only unit affected by a 5th receiver. It looks like you did control for field position pretty well, which i didnt see before.
The Hawks dont run 4 receiver sets much (and never 5, as you pointed out) but I was thinking that additional personnel might allow them to take advantage of match up problems, or make it more difficult for defenses to game plan (not knowing who’s likely to be on the field) but that seems to me to be impossible to quantify with any degree of effectiveness, and probably not that important in the long run. Good analysis.
by d.alexander on Sep 2, 2008 7:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm still worried
John, you mention the quality of replacement as what might really be going on. Couldn’t the real cause of this 4/5 thing just be that dressing 4 means we’re short a good receiver? Branch and Engram would certainly qualify, and that plus the 10 AM start could add up to a tough morning…
by helpless optimist on Sep 2, 2008 7:07 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Excellent point.
When we were a receiver down it was mostly Branch/Hackett, our best (and most injury prone) WRs.
by redwolf75 on Sep 2, 2008 7:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

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