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Matchupalooza: Seahawks @ Bills: From The Franchise To New Money

Walter Jones versus Aaron Schobel

P1_jones_walter_medium
If Jones keeps him square and his left shoulder in, Shobel won't show bull.

In 2007, Jones sat out the entire preseason. He would record his six worst quarters of football to start the season. In 2008, Jones saw extensive, terrifying action in August. He should be in game shape and moreover at game speed. That's good, because in many ways Schobel is exactly the type of end that gives Jones fits. As a pass rusher, Schobel is part edge rusher, part Kerney-esque hustle until the lineman quits. Jones doesn't quit - unless you can get outside his left shoulder. In 2007, Jones' sacks allowed occurred when pass rushers, through sheer quickness or an aggressive outside move, positioned themselves outside his left shoulder. Jones, 34, incapable of taking strong pain medication and plagued by chronic shoulder problems, protectively disengages his pass blocking when pass rushers can leverage their body against his outstretched left arm. For Jones to succeed against Schobel, he must be in midseason form mirror sliding, thereby keeping Schobel square. He must also overpower Schobel, disorient him enough on his initial pop to keep Schobel from hustling outside left on longer developing plays.

The other half of this matchup is Jones' ability to dominate Schobel run blocking. Schobel is well known for his ability to contribute run tackles, but that ability and the ability to hold the point are not one and the same. Seattle should attempt to attack the Bills on the edge, away from their (on paper) stout defensive tackles and outside Paul Posluszny's range. If Jones can bully Schobel in, use him to pick Kyle Williams and John McCargo, Mike Wahle can pull without fear of losing inside containment. If Jones doesn't bully Schobel, Chris Spencer/Steve Vallos may not be able to single block Willams/McCargo, and the Seahawks will shy away from potentially aborted sweeps and off tackle rushes.

Leroy Hill versus Marshawn Lynch

This matchup challenges Hill to take on what could be one of the better pass blocking backs in the NFL. A combination of an ankle injury and the loss of Jason Peters had the Bills keeping Lynch in more late last season, and with Peters out they may do likewise on Sunday. Like most rookies, Lynch wasn't a great blocker to start, but with a strong reputation at Cal and an emphasis on improvement in the offseason, I expect Lynch to make that jump this season.

This matchup is not of the "this guy's taller than this guy, so this guy will win the jump ball" crayon stuck in brain simplicity. Instead, it's dynamic and dependent on many variables. For one, Lynch may not even be the man to block Hill. Seattle frequently uses Lofa Tatupu as a kind of fullback on blitzes, punishing the lead blocker and blowing a hole for Hill to explode through. Second, Hill winning this matchup is as much about Hill's quickness and Lynch's read as Hill's strength and Lynch's blocking. John Marshall loves discordant blitzes that attempt to get a man free to the quarterback. Hill may win this matchup without even encountering Marshawn. Doing so will mean execution by the team and execution by Hill. On a veiled blitz, Marshall often attempts to hide Hill, not blitzing him until the last moment. This is one of Hill's greatest strengths and one way he should still be able to beat the inexperienced Lynch. That is, fool Lynch into reading wrong, blocking right (typically) and then outsprinting Lynch to the quarterback.

John Carlson versus Donte Whitner

Like Bob Sanders, Donte Whitner likes to start plays close to the line. And like Bob Sanders, Whitner can do that because he has rare speed and athleticism. Whitner sitting underneath is a recipe for a stunted running game and a broken wide receiver corps. In a Tampa 2 style defense, the flashpoint is deep-middle, between the safeties. High functioning Tampa 2s feature a middle linebacker who can supplement coverage between the safeties. For all his in the box prowess, Paul Posluszny was not a great pass defender at Penn State, and playing in just his fourth game in the NFL, will not singlehandedly remove the deep-middle on Sunday. Instead, Buffalo, suddenly debilitated at linebacker and facing a team determined to establish its running game, should keep Poz shallow and lean on Whitner to do the heavy lifting in coverage.

Seattle needs John Carlson and to a lesser extent Jeb Putzier to threaten the middle and keep Whitner from sitting on routes underneath. Purely from a geometric standpoint, deep-middle is also Matt Hasselbeck's best chance to complete deep passes. Beck is a maestro on short and intermediate passes, setting the tempo, cueing his soloist and shaping Seattle's passing attack. Beck is a meatball on deep passes, chucking ducks and hoping for busted coverage. But the deep middle, bearing no horizontal length, is one place Beck can get the ball 30 yards downfield with authority. An early completion to Carlson up the seam will do wonders for catch and run receivers Nate Burleson and Courtney Taylor. Allowing them to efficiently carve up the underneath and interior. The plodding, relentless almost zombie-like amassing of pass yards that make up the backbone of the Bill Walsh offense is essential to the explosive, phenomenal almost roman candle-like runs that make up the color and life of the Mike Holmgren offense.

0 recs  |  Comment 12 comments

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I'm somewhat more interested in the following matchups...

Chris Spencer vs Marcus Stroud: He better be healthy or he’s going to have a Pork Chop Womack sort of game
Ray Willis vs Anyone: Please don’t suck
Courtney Taylor vs Anyone: Please don’t suck also

"Hey, guess what? Nobody cares who would win in a crazy fantasy fist-fight between Anne Frank and Lizzie Borden." The Monarch

by crushedoptimist on Sep 5, 2008 7:16 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Not sure what I think about that

No offense to our Buffalo brethren, but I’m sure glad we’re playing them as opposed to New England this week.

"Hey, guess what? Nobody cares who would win in a crazy fantasy fist-fight between Anne Frank and Lizzie Borden." The Monarch

by crushedoptimist on Sep 5, 2008 7:56 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Stroud can be just as difficult as Vince Wolfork.

The only plus to Spencer is that he can call out the blitz packages that he sees. But do you think anyone can recognize anything that comes from that teams defense?

XBOX live gamertag: BANE509...I would die tonight for my beliefs.

by Christian on Sep 5, 2008 8:22 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That was like

a really good movie that ended too soon. Reading stuff like this is golden. Now, I crave more matchups! Seriously, that was great reading. Thanks!

by Misfit74 on Sep 5, 2008 10:56 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Best ever

John, I think that might have been your best post ever. And that’s saying something. Thanks.

by jeager on Sep 6, 2008 1:39 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Excellent

First, I’d just like to say great work; as a Bills fan I really found this quite interesting and useful.

Second, what do you think of the Bills trying to get around the Leroy Hill problem by passing short to the RB? Jackson especially is a guy who can make guys miss and really use open space to hurt a defense. If Hill and Tatupu are both blitzing, is there any concern of high risk/high reward with the possibility of a sack somewhat offset by the possibility of a long run after the catch by F-jack?
Another thing to consider is buffalo’s LB situation. I don’t know which side Ellison will be on, but if he’s behind Schobel, then the Schobel-Jones matchup is key. Ellison struggles in the run game, which will give Seattle a huge opening if you guys can stop/evade Schobel, Poz, and Stroud.

by Hopefulcynic on Sep 6, 2008 12:29 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Tatupu, especially, is excellent...

at getting his hands up for tips and breaking from a blitz and recovering into coverage. Hill is more of a freight train and if he gets sucked up he won’t likely contribute to the play. Seattle runs a lot of zone blitzes, and Lawrence Jackson has looked freakish in the short zone. Well maybe not Peppers level freakish, but you just don’t expect rookie defensive ends to be so aware or to break on the ball so quickly.

As far as I know, Mitchell is expected to play on the weakside and should line up over Schobel for most of the game. Especially with Locklear out, Seattle typically aligns its tight end right.

by John Morgan on Sep 6, 2008 12:38 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bills fan reply

I have to say, as a Bills fan, this is an excellent post on both our strengths and weaknesses. Our run defense is significantly better then last year. Stroud, Spencer Johnson, and having a healthy Pozluszny back will shore that up. That said, Keith Ellison (who’s in for Angelo Crowell who was placed on IR) was a disaster last year. If you can get outside on his side, your running game will tear us up. That said, he will be lining up behind Schobel and Stroud, so the first level of attack will be key in the Seahawks running game. Don’t expect to see Marshawn Lynch in much on passing downs for pass blocking. You’ll either see fullback Damien Barnes who’s a great blocker, or Fred Jackson, who wont block but go out for a pass in the flat.

I’m curious to see John Carlson as he was a guy I had very high on our draft board and was disappointed to see the Seahawks take. He’s a great athlete. That said, Whitner is developing into one of the leagues best safeties and a great team leader, can’t wait to see how the Bills use him.

The thing most interesting about this game, is both sides are saying this is a must-win game. Really, both teams have playoff aspirations. The Bills have a shot at the AFC Wild Card, and the Seahawks are looking to repeat as champions in one of the NFL’s weakest divisions. Whoever loses this game will be thinking their team is done, and whoever wins will be thinking playoffs. In reality, this is one in 16 games and could be meaningless down the stretch. I still like Seattle to win the NFC West. I just hope you can do it without an opening week win. I can’t wait to see what happens. Good luck, but lose from a Bills fan.

by Sportscaster on Sep 6, 2008 11:06 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

By the way

I love Lofa Tatupu, and I hope Pozluszny is the next Tatupu.

by Sportscaster on Sep 6, 2008 11:06 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

what an awesome thing to be able to say

about a third year guy, I’m so proud to have him

Why? Because the Seahawks rock my socks.

by Chickadee on Sep 7, 2008 12:39 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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