A point of discussion: Where will all the RB's go?

by abender20 on Jan 12, 2009 10:30 AM PST Comment 48 comments

While there is no back in this year's draft class with the hype of a guy like McFadden or Adrian Peterson, there is actually a reasonably deep group of backs ripe for the taking this year.

Knowshon Moreno, Beanie Wells, LeSean McCoy, Donald Brown, CJ Spiller, James Davis, Shonn Greene, Javon Ringer, and some less heralded guys like Kory Sheets from Purdue are also around.

Looking at the draft order, several teams have an apparent need for backs:

Cleveland, Cincy, Denver, Arizona, Houston (complement to Slaton), NE, San Diego, Philly (Westbrook insurance), and potentially the Bears (complement for Forte) all have needs for either a feature back or someone to complement their current back.

As far as I can tell, however, all of these teams have greater needs in the first round outside of perhaps Philly, who with two first rounders could try to find someone to spell the permanently dinged up Westbrook.

Do you want to spend a draft pick on any of these guys (assume Beanie and Knowshon are gone mid first) later on in the first day?

Who do you think starts snatching up backs in the second round, and who of these guys is the best value? (Having watched entirely too much Big 10 ball the last few years,Sheets could be a very solid back for a late 3rd rounder.)

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I think our running game is productive enough as it is

and that is without any significant feature back. However, if Morris left I wouldn’t mind drafting some value in the mid to late rounds for Orange Julius insurance, like CJ Spiller or something. I don’t like Beanie Wells and Moreno won’t fall out of the first. I like Shonne Greene but he’s probably going to be picked up early too.

by Fearless Frog on Jan 12, 2009 11:05 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

I agree that Greene won't get out of the second, but I doubt Spiller will either.

He has the elusiveness that teams enjoy pairing up with their power backs. Spiller would go nicely with Hightower (I have no idea what to make of JJ Arrington).

There are other sources of backs as well. Oakland has one too many guys there, and with all of their problems could try to trade Fargas or Bush for a pick.

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by abender20 on Jan 12, 2009 11:18 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

All of this is true.

Speaking of Oakland, what are the chances of us snagging Michael Huff for a 6th rounder?

by Fearless Frog on Jan 12, 2009 11:42 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

They might want to keep some depth in the secondary

with Nnamdi Asomugha leaving for greener pastures.

by SeaTownBlueDevil on Jan 12, 2009 11:49 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Hopefully neon green pastures...

although the price he commands will take make sure that doesn’t happen.

I DRINK YOUR MILKSHAKE!!! I DRINK IT UP!!

by abender20 on Jan 12, 2009 11:55 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Asomugha is frightfully overrated.

And it’s going to take nothing less than a Nate Clements-esque deal to bring him here.

by Fearless Frog on Jan 12, 2009 1:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

any proof to support this assertion?

It’s hard to evaluate guys, so I’d be curious to see what he actually is or isn;t.

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by abender20 on Jan 12, 2009 1:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Over rated?

How so?

by Nate Dogg on Jan 12, 2009 3:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't mind Michael Bush.

He was a beast at Louisville, I thought OAK got a huge steal when they snatched him up.

by SeaTownBlueDevil on Jan 12, 2009 12:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I've already advocated signing Terrell Sutton from your alma matter

that guy’s a beast, though he is a bit short, but he seems to be extremely athletic and can catch and block as well, a perfect fit for our team (except the undersized part since we already have Forsett).

by LantermanC on Jan 12, 2009 12:57 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

signing=drafting

by LantermanC on Jan 12, 2009 12:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Tyrell Sutton.

If you want a scouting report, I guess I’m as close as you get. I have serious love for Tyrell seing as how he arrived on the scene my sophomore year and started kicking heads in. He has moderately good vision and generally picks good holes, but his strength is his legs. I can tell you he is definitely 5’9" or shorter from playing basketball against him, but this actually comes in handy. He is similar to Darren Sproles in stature (although not quite that small), and that combined with his leg strength allows him to break tackles. When healthy (he is injury prone), he had a penchant for moving very large piles with him (to a comic degree. The man does not want to stop moving forward). He has very good hands and blocks well, but he is not fast. I would bet he runs a 4.6 or thereabouts; he will not break away from anyone. While game speed and track speed are different, Sutton was notorious for busting his way through the secondary and then getting caught up fairly quickly thereafter. Tyrell is a fumbler. Anecdotally, I think he fumbled at least once every four games or so, but I can’t back that up (no one seems to have those stats).

While I have an irrational love for the guy that can only come from watching him in person for 3 years (and this year on TV), I have to say he doesn’t provide a skill set much different from Forsett. Odds are he’s not for the Hawks.

I DRINK YOUR MILKSHAKE!!! I DRINK IT UP!!

by abender20 on Jan 12, 2009 2:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Thoughts

I think NE will end up with Larry Johnson. Their M.O. is obviously win now, that is assuming Brady returns.

I think McCoy is returning to Pitt.

I think the hawks are fine as far as RB’s. If Morris and Weaver both leave we still have Jones, Duckett, Schmitt, Forsett. Maybe grab one more guy late or in FA as a 5th back.

by michaelfox99 on Jan 12, 2009 1:11 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

LeSean McCoy declared already

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by abender20 on Jan 12, 2009 1:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Am I missing something?

I haven’t seen anything that says he’s declared.

by redwolf75 on Jan 12, 2009 6:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

in the immortal words of Tobias Funke

BOOYEAH

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by abender20 on Jan 14, 2009 10:26 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Wow, he's good

Late first rounder good?

by LantermanC on Jan 14, 2009 10:47 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Don't be surprised if...

there are no RB’s taken in the 1st round. As has already been pointed out, the few teams who could use one have other greater needs to address in Round 1. It is not inconceivable that Seattle has a shot at the best running back in the draft (in my mind Knowshoh Moreno, but you can debate that) at the 37 spot. Wouldn’t that be a hat trick, landing the best WR and best RB in the draft? It would simplify things. Moreno is a feature back that runs hard, and while not tall, is thick. They could release JJ and Duckett, or try to trade them to some of those other teams not willing to use a #1 pick to solve their RB issue, and keep Forsett for change of pace, with Weaver handling short yardage. Free’s up a roster spot also. Then go SS or CB in round 3, and O-line in round 4.

by diehard82 on Jan 12, 2009 5:10 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

If Moreno is still there for Arizona's pick, there's no way they don't take him.

He’s definitely not falling out of the 1st round.

by redwolf75 on Jan 12, 2009 6:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm praying Moreno gets picked ahead of Arizona...

The Cardinal’s already potent offense with the explosiveness of Knowshon is downright scary.

by aerozeppelin on Jan 12, 2009 10:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

They can't run-block worth a damn.

Really. A fully rested Edge is running his ass off and he’s barely cracking 3 YPC. Even with a spread offense that all defenses are keyed in on with a perpetual nickel/dime package, they still have almost no success at all in the run game.

by Fearless Frog on Jan 13, 2009 10:55 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I've seen Wells as high as 5..?

on mock drafts…

by LantermanC on Jan 12, 2009 6:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Cincy could take Wells early.

by SeaTownBlueDevil on Jan 12, 2009 6:57 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I've seen Wells as the Hawks' pick a few times.

Probably by people with noclue.

by djafrot on Jan 12, 2009 11:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Those are the people who haven't watched any recent football

and think Shaun Alexander is still our RB and Brian Russell is as incredible as he was in 2003 when he had 9 INTs.

by SeaTownBlueDevil on Jan 13, 2009 5:08 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Cleveland is in dire need of a RB

Chris Wells is an obvious pick for them.

Moreno is just a freak. Any team would be foolish to pass on him even if they have a running back. Many teams pick a RB in the 1st round even if they already have one (Carolina and Pittsburgh come in mind from the 2008 draft).

by aerozeppelin on Jan 12, 2009 8:51 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't say obvious

I mean they’re definitely considering him but linebacker is just as needed. I think they’ll get Curry. Also, Carolina and Pittsburgh both picked RBs because they expected their current starters not capable to handle a full rushing load and needed power backs to spell them and remain effective

by Fearless Frog on Jan 12, 2009 9:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Looking at Rob Rang's value board

keep in mind that the date for underclassmen to declare is Thursday… (last guy on each line straddles the border for the next round)

1st: Wells, OSU; Moreno, UGa; Greene, Iowa
2nd: Brown, UConn; Ringer, MSU
3rd: Jennings, Liberty; Moore, Wyo; J. Johnson, Oregon (solid 3rd)
4th: Foster, Tenn; Davis, Clemson
5th: Coffee, Ala; Southerland, UGa; Sutton, NWU; Brown, NC St.
6th: McCall (FB), Ala; Fiammetta (FB), Syr; Peerman, UVa; Herring, ASU; P.J. Hill, Wisc; Donaldson, W. IL
7th: Collins (FB), Pitt; Branson, C. Ark; I. Johnson, Boise;
7th/FA: Johnson, AR St., Mailei, Wbr St.; Haftner, Hou; Lester, Aub; G. Johnson, CO St.; Williams, TN St.; Brinkley, Syr

Not declared as of Rang’s latest update: McCoy (Pitt); Spiller (Clem)

So yeah, abender20’s take on the class being deep and bottom-heavy seems about right. I could even see the top guys getting pushed down a bit. Wells has a constant string of injuries and Moreno is possibly a tad overdone.

I doubt Seattle would pay much attention to a back on day 1 at all, and not even early on day 2 unless someone of really high value fell into our laps (e.g., Donald Brown in the 4th perhaps or Jeremiah Johnson in the 5th).

Otherwise, what I like about a lot of the day two guys is a) size, and b) demonstrated production in the passing game. Lots of guys can run, but they won’t see the field if they can’t block. Arion Foster from Tennessee is guy I like. He’s not a home run hitter, but a good runner, fine in pass pro, and an excellent route runner from a pro-style offense. Gatrell Johnson from CSU is another guy that’s big and versatile “one-cut and go” style runner with decent hands.

"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin

by dcrockett17 on Jan 13, 2009 8:29 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

IF any of Moreno, Greene, or McCoy

fall to our 2nd round pick… I’d be sorely tempted to pick them. Though I guess if it’s between them and Chung or Alabama’s safety, I’d be fairly indifferent, and by indifferent I mean I’d rather pick the safety.

by LantermanC on Jan 14, 2009 10:57 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Hawks - round 2-3

LeSean McCoy, So. Pitt (5’11", 210, 4.49)
C.J. Spiller, Jr. Clemson (5’11", 193, 4.40)

Either of these guys would add a much needed element of explosiveness to Seattle’s backfield. Spiller is said to have better hands than Chris Johnson and a similar speed element, though not first-round fast.

by Misfit74 on Jan 13, 2009 8:37 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Chris Johnson is All-World fast. Spiller is more lateral quickness than straight burn (though he is fast)

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by abender20 on Jan 13, 2009 9:46 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Didn't Chris Johnson run something like a 4.2?

by redwolf75 on Jan 13, 2009 12:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

4.24

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by abender20 on Jan 13, 2009 1:24 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Damn.

What’s the fastest electronically timed combine speed that’s been recorded?

by redwolf75 on Jan 13, 2009 3:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

4.24

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by abender20 on Jan 13, 2009 3:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

This vidoe proves nothing

but here is Olympic sprinter and recent FSU grad (I assume he graduated anyways..) Walter Dix running a 40 on the track in 3.75 hand timed, so as the comment on youtube says 3.99 FAT.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_pUa1CRUUQ

by LantermanC on Jan 13, 2009 3:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Also useless

but the 10k world record (rough 6.25 miles exactly 6.215 miles) for an average of 4:14 per mile, but
the last 100 meters was run in a conservative estimate of 10.5 seconds, which equates to 3.8 seconds for 40 yards (running start I know, but he had just run 9900 meters, give him a break)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6roXDygZ3ag

by LantermanC on Jan 13, 2009 4:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Here is a list of fastest 40s by nfl players

Bo Jackson 4.12 (at Auburn)
Joey Galloway 4.15 (at Ohio State)
etc
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/40-yard_dash

by LantermanC on Jan 16, 2009 8:33 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Spiller would make me very happy

but he’d have to slip a long ways for it to make any sense for the Hawks to grab him.

by Nate Dogg on Jan 13, 2009 1:48 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

It also depends on what Mora + Knapp have in mind for the offense.

Spiller presents a skillset different from any of the current Hawks backs.

I DRINK YOUR MILKSHAKE!!! I DRINK IT UP!!

by abender20 on Jan 13, 2009 1:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

There are too many other more important positions that need to be addressed

Not in any particular oder, DT, S, OL, WR (well, Crabtree), QB should all have precedence over RB at this point. I think Spiller will be good (he’s been one of my favorite college players to watch) but I don’t know that I think he’ll be good enough to justify adding to an already crowded backfield.

by Nate Dogg on Jan 13, 2009 3:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

oh I'm in complete agreement with you. There is no point cutting JJ just to make room for a draft pick

when that pick can be spent on something else.

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by abender20 on Jan 13, 2009 3:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

don't you think losing MoMo to FA will open up a spot for a draftee at RB?

by Misfit74 on Jan 13, 2009 6:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

That still leaves Jones, Duckett Forsett

and if they bring back Weaver his role would likely involve more running that he’s seen in the past. Even if both Morris and Weaver are gone would you spend a second or third round pick to add to Jones, Duckett and Forsett?

by Nate Dogg on Jan 13, 2009 7:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Since I'm not sold on Forsett to play RB, yes. I would have to strongly consider it.

by Misfit74 on Jan 14, 2009 4:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I respectfully disagree

I think Forsett is a lot like Sproles in many ways, small, quick, tough and only sat the bench as a reserve because MoMo was there. If we lose MoMo to FA, I think Forsett can step in as the Change of Pace back quite nicely, and even surprise some people, just like Sproles did when given an opportunity. Seattle needs to fill holes, and RB isn’t one of them.

by diehard82 on Jan 14, 2009 6:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

He's not nearly as fast as Sproles

and he has a much more physical running style.

by Nate Dogg on Jan 14, 2009 6:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Which is not the contrasting element of explosiveness and speed I think we should add.

We have physical and avg. speed RBs. That’s why I like guys like Spiller, McCoy, etc. Forsett is a smaller Julius Jones without the pass-blocking ability or receiving ability but same lack of explosiveness and speed.

by Misfit74 on Jan 14, 2009 10:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs