Is Mora a Moneyball Guy?
Is there a stat-geek breathing behind all that press conference bluster and Tiger Mountain-climbing? According to a 2003 story for the Tennessean by ESPN's Paul Kuharsky about former Titans defensive coordinator and new Lions head coach (gulp) Jim Schwartz, perhaps,
Schwartz, like FO big kahuna Aaron Schatz, has an economics degree. Like Aaron, Schwartz has been applying regression analysis to football for years. Thus, his status as perhaps the biggest FO believer among the NFL coaching fraternity.
Anyhoo, here's the passage in the linked article that caught my eye:
Schwartz doesn't overload his players with statistical information. Free safety Lance Schulters, a former 49er, said San Francisco defensive coordinator Jim Mora referred to stats the same way Schwartz does in meetings. Cornerback Andre Dyson, who's played for no other NFL coordinator, said he is sometimes surprised by Schwartz.
Well, this certainly bears watching. Will Mora already know that Adjusted Sack Rate doesn't refer to the number of times per day your strong-side linebacker corrects the position of his "package" during practice? Has Moneyball actually come to Seattle?
Edit: Paul Kuharsky sent me a quick e-mail this afternoon, asking to clarify that he meant to say Schwartz wasn't that different from Mora, not so much that Mora was an "FO guy."
Also, an interesting tidbit from Schwartz's introductory press conference today:
There's not a coach in the United States - high school, college or NFL - that doesn't use statistics to some degree. What we try to do, and this goes back to Bill Belichick, who is also an economics major, what we tried to do is we tried to identify the important stats and so many times writers will harp on, 'Ok, well they're the worst in the league in yards allowed, or this.' Try to find out what's meaningful, what correlates to wins and look at the game in a little different way. Statistics have been strong in baseball for a long time, but there are 162 games. Stats will bear out over 162 games, but 16 games is a little bit different. We started breaking down games not into just a game, but into series, looking a little bit farther. I think what it does is that it gives us an idea of how we can best use our practice time. We can devote time to third down defense. We can devote time to things that correlate to keeping points off the board, or keeping drives alive to score.
The divide between old school and new will become more and more pronounced. The Schwartz hire is a huge step in that direction. Whether Mora in fact will choose to tread on the new line in any way remains to be seen.
16 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
LOL
“Will Mora already know that Adjusted Sack Rate doesn’t refer to the number of times per day your strong-side linebacker corrects the position of his "package” during practice?"
Priceless.
Now THAT
is interesting. Thank you Doug. I don’t know exactly how useful stats are in the NFL. Many of the stats the NFL tracks are unreliable in tracking player and team talent. Hence the rise of DVOA (as you, of course, well know). But the idea of having a coach who looks closely at the stats a player produces and not just how much he likes the player, a coach who objectively evaluates his talent, excites me. Just another tidbit to keep me intrigued and excited for next season.
Thirded (that a word?)
Anyway. Good nugget to know.
Rather than using the stats to judge an individual player’s talent …. IMO they’d come in more useful from a gameplanning/scheme perspective. i.e., is a D that has a good rep against the pass/good overall rankings actually vulnerable to TE’s and slot receivers … stuff like that.
Fo' Sho'?

Looks like your finally one of us.
NEEDS MORE FREEDOM!
by Scruffy Lefty on Jan 16, 2009 1:07 PM PST up reply actions
Man, that photograph is disturbing
"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin
Doug is striaght up gansta
West side gansta I think, those kid’s fat little fingers don’t look like they work quite right.
Has Moneyball come to Seattle?
Not if Timothy Jay Ruskell has anything to say about it, by God.
I kid.
I kid.
"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin
On a more serious note...
(vaguely-related tangent alert)
the NFL probably has more money at stake with less consensus about how to evaluate performance (specifically personnel performance) than any other multi-billion dollar business in the world.
Whether you favor quantitative data like traditional counting stats or DVOA, or if you are partial to more qualitative/observational data like scouting, teams are often looking for radically different things even if they use the same data.
I wasn’t going anywhere with this. I just find it weird.
"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin
Hollywood
William Goldman has a famous dictum: “Nobody knows anything.” Hollywood execs have even less idea of what will make a successful movie than NFL execs’ ideas on who will make an effective quarterback.
Reminds of an interview with Martin Scorsese
Who is one of the most successful directors of all time. And he said that you NEVER know if a movie is going to be a huge hit or a bomb. People think they know, but they don’t, he said.
What would moneyball mean for football?
We know the Eagles use YPA, do most teams have their own version of DVOA type stats? What kind of advanced metrics are they likely focusing on?
I did a thing for the Washington Post a few months ago...
…about the Eagles using YPA to give Lito Sheppard a line little push in the direction of reality. Check it out here As far as teams using advanced stats and expecting any tangible result? I think we’re quite a bit behind baseball in that regard. Some teams are making inroads. I could see, down the road, a left guard using Adjusted Line Yards in contract negotiations. Why not? As line stats become accepted and common parlance, why wouldn’t Agent X want to use the fact that Client Y had a 3.25 ALY in his area, and the overall team ALY was half a yard higher?
It's early, yet
Football Outsiders has been operational since, what, ‘03? You’re still in the “Bill James Abstracts” level of exploration. The baseball guys have been doing this for twenty-five years. Give it some time.

by 






























