Larry Fitzgerald Ran a 4.63 40
I don't know if Michael Crabtree (if he's available at #4) is the right choice for the Seahawks. There may be better values at less-risky positions. But one thing I do know is that a less-than-elite 40-time is not a reason to pass on him with the fourth pick.
This post was prompted from listening to Rob Rang on with John Clayton this past Saturday. You can listen to it here. John Clayton repeatedly said Crabtree would be hurt by his 40 time, which he and Rang agreed would likely be in the high 4.4s, if not low 4.5s. Really? Is running a 4.49 a reason to pass on a guy who an absolute stud in every other area, a gamer that can make a play when the game (season) is on the line, and a two-time Biletnikoff award-winner? Really?
Like most of us, I've spent the last three weeks (never mind the last five seasons) watching Larry Fitzgerald absolutely dominate opposing defensive backs. It's getting beyond ridiculous, where all Kurt Warner has to do is huck it and Fitzgerald will come down with it. His three touchdowns today really took it over the top for me. What a weapon to have. If you have the opportunity to get a talent like that, don't you have to take it?
Fitzgerald and Crabtree are quite similar. Fitzgerald is currently 6'3", 220 lbs, played two years in college and caught 161 passes for 2,667 yards and 34 touchdowns. Crabtree is 6'3", 214 lbs, played two years in colleges and caught 231 passes for 3,127 yards and 41 touchdowns. Crabtree is projected to run a 'non-ideal' high-4.4 or low-4.5 time. Fitzgerald ran an even-worse 4.63 at the combine.
Again, I don't know if Crabtree is the right pick. But if the lesson from last year's post season was that you create a pass rush to win, isn't this year's that an elite, Fitzgerald-esque receiver will trump all? It's not like the Cardinals have faced off against weak pass rushers. John Abraham, Julius Peppers, and a Jim Johnson-led Eagles defense are tough opponents for any team, nevermind Arizona's marginal offensive line. Yet they've been able to overcome all of them.
And since I mentioned last year's copycat-league lesson, it's funny how quickly everybody forgets that the story up until the Super Bowl was how dangerous of a weapon Randy Moss was. Had Eli Manning not escaped the Patriots clutches on that final, game-winning drive, last year's lesson could easily have been 'get a dominant wide receiver.' Oh, and who did throw the game-winning touchdown to? Of course it was to, who was quite the dominant receiver before he got shot at Chili's shot himself in the leg. Burress is 6'5", and just for the hell of it I decided to look up his 40 time. Guess what: 4.6 even.
Ok, I take it all back. Draft Crabtree already.
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Ruskell has full control now
It’ll be interesting to see what he does. His team, his coach, his players. I think he has proven to be “random” enough in the draft that there is really no telling what to expect. He does seem to get a hard on for players that produce in college and Crabtree has certainly done that.
I'm glad we finally get a high 1st round pick
It seems that Ruskell always nails the 2nd-4rd round prospects, but the late-1st rounders haven’t been the best.
I don’t know what Ruskell would be thinking to pass a prospect like Crabtree, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes for Aaron Curry.
by aerozeppelin on Jan 18, 2009 11:32 PM PST up reply actions
Jerry Rice ran a 40 time around that.
And we can see how well that turned out.
by Phil Hatzenbuehler on Jan 19, 2009 8:50 AM PST reply actions
Well, I'm still high on Maleuga,
but you guys have convinced me, Oher, Sanchez, Curry, Jenkins, Crabtree, I’m fine with all of them.
40 times are certainly overrated and Fitzgerald is fantastic, but...
your conclusion here confuses me:
Again, I don’t know if Crabtree is the right pick. But if the lesson from last year’s post season was that you create a pass rush to win, isn’t this year’s that an elite, Fitzgerald-esque receiver will trump all?
This is Fitzgerald’s first season on a winning team. I watched that game and saw Warner solidifying his place in the Hall of Fame. When I look at what has changed in Arizona, I see Warner and Whisenhunt. More importantly though, I don’t think any one player makes a team a contender and I think it would be a mistake to draft a top wide receiver just because that’s been a key to Arizona’s success.
I think if Seattle knew it was drafting Larry Fitzgerald, Crabtree would be a lock, but plenty of slow but productive receivers have fizzled in the pros. Seattle should do its best to identify the best risk/reward and draft that player. It certainly could be Crabtree.
Mike Williams, take a bow
I DRINK YOUR MILKSHAKE!!! I DRINK IT UP!!
BMW was a moron
who got fat during his year away from playing. I contend that if he had remained in school things would’ve been different.
You know what? Fuck you Sports Gods, fuck you.
BOLD PREDICTION:
Al Davis can’t resist the temptation and trades Oakland’s first and second round picks to us for Crabtree. That gives us 3 picks in the top 40, and we draft Robinson, Moore, and whoever we feel is BPA with the first pick.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
We get McFadden with that trade too
inexchange for Brian Russell.
Davis would do it.
He’s a big fan of white guy grit.
"It's just one big guy against another big guy, both teams know what's at stake. The one of them comes out on top and it feels good."
-Chris Collinsworth, Madden 09
by Wayward Llama on Jan 19, 2009 10:15 AM PST up reply actions
I don't like McFadden.
Zach Miller, Derrick Burgess, or Nnamdi Asomugha plz.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jan 19, 2009 11:00 AM PST up reply actions
Davis likes speed.
I think even that crazy man will hold true to that and draft a Heyward-Bey, Maclin, or Harvin type.
It's funny
how many fans don’t notice how much better and worse QBs look thanks to their WR corps. Hass throws one or two bad passes in a losing effort and people jump all over him even though his WR are almost always completely covered. Warner throws to Fitzgerald who is almost always so wide open that he can slow down and wait for the bad passes, or who can fight off DBs who have him totally covered, and people want to send Warner to the Hall of Fame.
Proving that Football is - after all - a team sport
If you have a good QB and good WR(s) your passing game is good.
Bad WR or bad QB and your passing game isn’t good.
Of course Tom Brady did win 3 super bowls with shit receivers and then lost a Superbowl with Randy Moss, so what do I know.
by GarethLewin on Jan 19, 2009 12:18 PM PST up reply actions
Deion Branch had two of possibly the best Super Bowl performances by a WR.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jan 19, 2009 12:33 PM PST up reply actions
Exactly, with a Superbowl MVP title
over Brady
by superZAGnics on Jan 26, 2009 10:49 AM PST up reply actions
And yet, no other Cardinals quarterback, with the exact same talent, has even approached Warner's production.
by John Morgan on Jan 19, 2009 12:36 PM PST up reply actions
I don't think there's anything "exact" about it.
’zona’s 3rd and 4th string WR’s seem to be an improvement over Bryant Johnson, and their TE’s are better, and they have two capable backs.
The OL seems MUCH better than it did.
Just a couple of years ago Warner was getting knocked around for the Cards, we were all claiming he was done.
I think if you give a healthy Hass a Fitz (and a decent line), and pretty much throw every down, he puts up 30 TD’s easy.
This is not Warner's first season with Arizona.
Look at every single season Warner has played in Arizona, he has dramatically outperformed every other quarterback who has started for the Cardinals in the same season. Warner has one bad season in his entire career. His career adjusted net yards per attempt is 6.3. Tom Brady’s is 6.0. There’s a point when ignoring Warner’s excellence becomes irrational.
And for some reason people have passed that point.
The question is, do we really need an upgrade to our stating WR crew, or just a lack of injuries?
Personally I want us to draft Crabtree because he looks exciting to watch.
The arguments against Warner generally share material with the arguments against
guys like Graham Harrell or Kliff Kingsbury. System guys, surrounded by great talent, in the right system, but not actually capable of succeeding outside that system or without that talent. The difference is that you draft college players based on what they may do in the NFL. Who cares what sort of system/talent Warner benefits from? That is how you have success in the NFL, he HAS had that success in the NFL, and that is all that matters. Making an argument along the lines of “he’d be awful with Detroit’s O-line and three clones of Limas Sweed” is not only inane but also irrelevant.
I DRINK YOUR MILKSHAKE!!! I DRINK IT UP!!
Just one Limas Sweed is one too many.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jan 19, 2009 1:31 PM PST up reply actions
absolutely not. He has just shown some frightfully bad hands so far.
I DRINK YOUR MILKSHAKE!!! I DRINK IT UP!!
Obviously, its too early for judgement, but
several Pittsburgh fans inform me that he has poor hands, runs ragged routes, is inept at getting open, and is slow to boot. Luckily for them they have 3 capable WRs plus a good TE ahead of him.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jan 19, 2009 3:10 PM PST up reply actions
You'd think Pittsburgh would've been able to
determine this before they drafted him.
Was he good in college? Or of the “projectable” type, such as Michael Johnson in the upcoming draft.
I know I saw at least 2 mocks that had the Hawks
taking him in the first round, and several more calling him the top WR in the draft.
by Mind of no mind on Jan 19, 2009 6:01 PM PST up reply actions
He was pretty good target at Texas
most mocks had him reuniting with Vince Young and going to the Titans in the first. Honestly, I’ve no idea why he sucks, because I thought he’d be a decent possession receiver in his limited time on the field.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jan 19, 2009 6:19 PM PST up reply actions
Warner was awful in 02, 04, 05 and 06
The guys career is essentially 4 very good years, 99-01 and 08. And his ANY/A isn’t going to show one of his biggest weakness’s, fumbles. The talent he’s outplayed is a rookie and Cade McNown while his replacement in St Louis was able to achieve similar production with a less talented and older group. Warner is a good quarterback who’s had phenomenal talent around him, he’s not Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Jim Kelly or Joe Montana.
Warner was awful in 2002
and top 20 in DVOA in 2004, 2005 and 2006.
The players he’s outperformed include Trent Green and Marc Bulger.
This argument isn’t Warner is one of the best ever or crap. Warner is an excellent quarterback who excelled with great talent.
You said he solidified his hall of fame status
which to me means one of the best ever.
In ‘04 he was 24th in DVOA, behind Harrington and Aaron Brooks. In ’05 he was 15th, behind Bledsoe (Dallas) and Brunell (Redskins). And in ’06 he was 23rd in DVOA behind David Carr, JP Losman and Vince Young. He wasn’t even the best QB on his team in ’06, ranking behind Leinart who was 20th.
He didn’t outperform Green. Green’s numbers were vastly superior to Warner’s in 2000 on a per game basis in yards, touchdowns and picks. Had Green not gotten hurt there is no reason to think that he wouldn’t have done everything that Warner was able to.
Bulger outperformed Warner in 02, because of Warner’s injury, and then put up similar ANY/A numbers from ’04 to ’06 without the talent that Warner had (Bruce and Faulk declining, Hakim gone but with an admittedly better Holt).
I don’t want to come across as saying Warner is crap, he’s clearly not. But he’s not a hall of famer, he’s not an excellent quarterback and there is no denying the impact his supporting cast has had on his career. Kurt Warner’s name belongs with Green, Bulger and Pennington, not Elway, Favre or Marino.
First, I'm not saying I would personally vote for him to go into the HOF
But leading his second team to the Super Bowl will likely send him to the HOF. That HOF, obviously, is not a pure meritocracy. Warner is a good storyline and a very good quarterback.
It’s interesting about DVOA, I assume you’re pulling from the 2008 PFP. I noticed that after I checked the 2007 PFP that his DVOA dropped in the 2008 edition. To be honest, I’m not wild about a system that is not open the public and subject to continual changes. That’s another matter.
I think Warner belongs with Green, Bulger, Pennington, Hasselbeck—the excellent but not truly elite quarterbacks. Maybe that’s the disconnect. I think that’s an awesome player worthy of praise.
haha, there's the key that we all seem to agree on
He might make the HOF, but he probably shouldn’t.
If Aikman is in the hall
Then Warner should be
NEEDS MORE FREEDOM!
by Scruffy Lefty on Jan 19, 2009 6:19 PM PST up reply actions
I grabbed them from the site
but they’re probably updated there as well. I think I’m wrong on ’06 actually, he was behind those guys in DYAR not DVOA. He was behind Leinart in DVOA though, that parts correct as of the new numbers.
Yeah, but who are those other quarterbacks?
They all stink.
I’m not saying Warner is “bad”, just overrated by the media in general and would probably be nothing on a team that didn’t have phenomenal talent like the Rams of old or today’s Cardinals.
You can call it irrational, fine. But I dare you to find an NFL exec who would rather have Warner than Brady.
No one was proclaiming that Warner is better than Brady. That is a ridiculous straw man to throw out.
I DRINK YOUR MILKSHAKE!!! I DRINK IT UP!!
his name was just in my head from Nate's post
If Warner’s going to the hall of fame, then he’s got to be pretty damn close to Brady, no?
The point I’m making (same as nate) is that Warner may have some numbers to show he’s great. If you asked around the NFL, I’ll bet that the majority of people wouldn’t even consider Warner and Brady (or Peyton, or Kelly, or Elway, or Montana, or Marino, other HOF/sure HOF’ers) as close.
How did we get here, anyhow?
took a left turn at Murfreesboro
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The Cardinals TE's are pretty bad.
I’m not even sure they have two capable backs. Edge has been resurgent in the post-season after being completely fazed out in the regular season and Hightower didn’t really impress me either.
When Warner went out and Leinartt came in
during the Seahawks game, they didn’t miss a beat.
The point
is that if Warner is great and a crucial/necessary part of the Cardinals passing game who needs to be a great QB for the Cardinals to succeed, Leinart, who is not all that great, would have come in and at least looked a little worse. He didn’t even look any worse.
The truth is, the Cardinal WRs are often wide open, Warner’s passes are often off, but being so wide open, the WRs can adjust and make the catch anyway. For example, almost every long pass in yesterdays game included the WR slowing down to make the catch.
You can't judge whether Leinart looked better or worse on only 8 attempts
You can find a set of 8 attempts by Grossman where he looked like Marino and 8 attempts by Manning where he looked like Grossman. Leinart going 5/8 at the end of a blow out against a 4-12 team means nothing.
Really?
So a crappy backup QB, who isn’t accurate and can’t find open WRs can often sub in for the #1 and still drive the team down the field as well as the starter? I don’t think so. Usually they come in and the drop off is obvious.
And when he came in, the game was far from over. If the offense would have started tanking at that point, the Seahawks could easily have come back. It was the Leinart touchdown drive that was the nail in the coffin.
Of course it's not
It depends on what you are trying to determine. For example, if you are trying to determine whether a kicker can make a 60yd field goal, one successful 60yder will provide the true answer.
If you’re trying to determine whether a given QB has the ability to drive a given team down the field for a TD, one instance will prove it.
Could the Cardinals have done what they did this season with Leinart instead of Warner? One series or eight passes can’t answer that.
Does Leinart have the ability to move the Cardinal offense or is Warner providing a level of ability that Leinart can’t match? Eight passes and a TD drive can answer that question.
`
If you’re trying to determine whether a given QB has the ability to drive a given team down the field for a TD, one instance will prove it.
Here’s all that proves:
The quarterback was able to drive the team down the field for a touchdown on that particular drive.
An 8-pass sample is a ridiculously small window that tells you very little about a QB’s ability.
I'm not trying to judge QBs
I’m trying to judge the rest of the offense. In order for the offense to work, do they require a level of play that Warner can provide, but Leinart can’t? No. That’s been proven.
I read somewhere that guys like Wallace, Hasselbeck, and by inference, Leinart can’t make the types of throws to make the Cardinal offense work. One touchdown drive with Leinart making the throws proves they can.
Fitzpatrick to Fitzgerald = Unstoppable.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jan 19, 2009 10:19 PM PST up reply actions
I think what he's
trying to say is that it’s possible for Leinert to produce with that offense. He’s not trying to say that it’s probable or that it will consistently happen. Just that it can happen.
So what?
You could throw Charlie Frye into that offense (or any offense) and he’d have an 8-pass window at some point that would look that good if not better.
It tells you absolutely nothing.
You really believe that?
I’m not so sure Frye could hit eight passes against AIR, much less a defence.
The real point here
is that when you have a WR corps like the Cardinals who routinely get more than one WR open, and not just a little open, but wide open it makes the QB job easier. They have a bigger target to throw to, meaning less skill is required to be successful. Watch the replays of Warner’s long passes to Fitzgerald. The WR slows down on almost all of them, meaning the pass was off target. If Hasselbeck throws passes that bad, they get intercepted or defended because the DB is right there. So Warner looks more skilled than he is to the casual observer.
Eight passes and a TD drive can answer that question.
And had he thrown some incompletions or – goodness – an interception, would that prove definitively that he could not? There is no way to know, definitively, what Leinart would’ve done had he won the starting position in preseason.
The start of this sub-thread was questioning the value of Warner. I submit that had Leinart started and put up 401-598-4583-30-14 he would be – rightly – considered very valuable.
And I hate Kurt Warner.
ring the bells of wrongness from the highest of mountains.
ONE INSTANCE DOES NOT PROVE SKILL!
Ben Wallace makes free throws once in a while, but that doesn’t mean he is capable of hitting 100% (even though he did in a sample of 1).
Tarvaris Jackson leading one game winning does not mean he can do it consistently.
etc, etc, etc, etc.
I DRINK YOUR MILKSHAKE!!! I DRINK IT UP!!
It's not the one instance by itself,
It’s that any careful observer can see that the AZ WR corps makes the QBs job easy. There are almost always two of them wide open so that the QB doesn’t have to be that accurate, and when the QB is in trouble he just hefts it toward Fitzgerald, covered or not, and he bullies the DB out of the way and makes the catch. Put that together with actually seeing the WRs make an apparently mediocre QB like Leinart look just as good, well, the reason is clear.
this is the second time you've used the concept of
“careful observation” as a rationalization against the value of data. You have just lumped together a bunch of assertions that in no way are either entirely true or act as some semblance of proof. For instance, Fitzgerald was “wide open” on the Arrington throwback to Warner, but even then he had a DB in close trail coverage that he beat to the ball. You can’t just assert things like
There are almost always two of them wide open so that the QB doesn’t have to be that accurate
and hand that over to the jury as hard evidence.
I DRINK YOUR MILKSHAKE!!! I DRINK IT UP!!
No
I used the concept of careful observation (and good reasoning), combined with data, which of course is what has to happen with all data in order for the conclusions to be correct.
You have presented not one scrap of data,
outside of violating statistical theory with sample size anomaly.
I’m done fighting. Let’s be friends. Milkshake?
I DRINK YOUR MILKSHAKE!!! I DRINK IT UP!!
Sure, we'll be friends
But the data I presented was right at the top of this subthread wrt Leinarts passing success when he subbed for Warner. If it wasn’t data, no one would have contended that the sample size was too small
Which you know through your careful observation of his QB play.
I DRINK YOUR MILKSHAKE!!! I DRINK IT UP!!
.
It depends on what you are trying to determine. For example, if you are trying to determine whether a kicker can make a 60yd field goal, one successful 60yder will provide the true answer.
People do things that don’t reflect their true talent level fairly often.
by Aaron Campeau on Jan 21, 2009 12:36 AM PST up reply actions
I once went 2-3 in a single high school baseball game.
Those were the only two hits I got all season.
Similar story.
I once scored 4 points in a 7th grade basketball game. Those were the only points I scored that season (and the next season as well).
I agree.
Curt Warner = 1998 Randall Cunningham. Or any QB that played for the Vikings durring the Carter/Moss/Reed era.
by Mind of no mind on Jan 19, 2009 6:16 PM PST up reply actions
Curt Warner = Seahawks #3 pick, 1983, RB, Penn State
And the RB coach at Camas HS, lol.
And proud owner of Curt Warner Chevrolet (I think in Oregon?)
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jan 20, 2009 9:48 AM PST up reply actions
That game was pretty much over when Leinart came in.
And as John mentioned it was only 8 pass attempts and Seattle’s defense is/was bad.
Ok, good for the dog.
I don’t see what that has to do with Leinart’s 8 pass pass attempts against Seattle being an extremely small sample size of success and doesn’t indicate anything on his or Warner’s ability.
it just says that being better than Leinart isn't exactly proof of greatness
not that anyone really said that.
Physical WR?
I was curious about how Crabtee’s physical traits compared with other NFL WRs. PFP 08 has a nice article called Wide Receivers: Size Matters (pg.466). They note body mass index, among other things as somewhat of an indicator toward NFL success.
If Crabtree is 6’3", 213 (height=75 )his BMI would be 26.6. There were no WRs listed with the same BMI. Some WRs were similar in height and BMI: Braylon Edwards (74.7 height, 27.1 BMI), Roy Williams (74.4, 26.8). This doesn’t account for speed. Another guy to look at is Dwayne Bowe, who doesn’t have the speed of Edwards but almost the height of Crabtree. Bowe is thicker, though (74.2, 28.2).
Although it’s fun to think about Crabtree becoming the next Fitzgerald there are factors we don’t yet know about him. What will be his playing weight? Will he weigh in at the same 213lbs for the combine? What will he run and, more importantly, at what weight?
Fitzgerald (74.7, 28.5) had/has a much thicker frame. Will Crabtree’s BMI in contrast to his speed have an effect on where he is drafted, I wonder? I think that with the lack of elite speed and lack of bulk compared to Fitz, Andre Johnson (74.0, 28.5), etc. that it’s fair to wonder if Crabtree’s ‘physicality’ will translate to the NFL, thus helping him become an elite WR. He lacks the size/speed combo of other elite wideouts, not just the speed. He lacks the size of the physical, yet slower, Bowe. One thing that can’t be measured are his hands.
This is certainly an interesting perspective and another log to throw into the big draft philosophy fire, although it may not be fair,
especially since you are comparing guys who have been in the NFL for at least 2 years (and mostly more based on that set) with a 21 year old.
Size/Speed combo is overrated. It certainly doesn’t hurt to be both tall and fast (Andre Johnson), but as the poster mentioned there are plenty of guys succeeding without elite speed. Steve Smith gets by at 5’9" and is also extremely physical. A lot of physicality is in the mental makeup of the player (as well as strength and balance etc.). Hines Ward is 6’ 205 and is very physical, even to point of being dirty. The point is that ability to play wideout goes beyond measurements – Fitz isn’t good only because he’s tall; he runs superior routes, is perhaps the best in the league at adjusting to the ball, makes tremendous use of his body to shield defenders, and has unbelievable hands. So far, Crabtree has shown to have a good sense of the non-measurables, based on his success.
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especially since you are comparing guys who have been in the NFL for at least 2 years (and mostly more based on that set) with a 21 year old. bq.
to clarify, all numbers given were based on draft data, so it’s ‘crabtree now’ vs. ‘those wrs at draft-time’, to the best of my knowledge according to the FO piece, though I am comparing his projected success vs. known success of the NFL guys (loosely, I might add).
I think Fitz has taken a serious step up in the last year.
Not sure why, but he appears almost undefendable in the way Randy Moss was the first few years he was in the league. You just put the ball anywhere near him, and it’s caught.
I swear part of it is simply reputation… DB’s simply have a bit of a breakdown whenever the ball’s in the air and Fitz just has that confidence that he’s going to come down with it.
That’s why, if Crabtree is going to become anything like this, I think he’d be a godsend for Hass in his later years. Hass may not be accurate on the long ball, but with a serious jumping threat downfield it wouldn’t matter. You add an actual thread of the long pass to the WCO and we’ll have room underneath for people like Branch and Burly and Carlson to operate, which could be deadly.
This is exactly what I mean when I say even if Crabtree is half as good as Fitz, he morphs our passing game.
Also, can anyone compare Crabtree and Calvin Johnson’s scouting reports? Just want to get a feel for who’s the better prospect.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jan 19, 2009 3:17 PM PST up reply actions
Off hand, I do know Johnson was measured to be 6'5" and is considered much faster (ran a 4.35)
I DRINK YOUR MILKSHAKE!!! I DRINK IT UP!!
WTF? 4.35 w/ THAT size?!
He’s pretty beefy too, not like those frail twigs you expect to run sub-4.4s.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jan 19, 2009 5:14 PM PST up reply actions
Holy hell.
Now I understand when people say he’s wasting away in Detroit. O_O
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jan 19, 2009 5:19 PM PST up reply actions
It has nothing to do with catching 80 balls for 1300 yards with Dan Orlovsky throwing to him
His size is the reason.
That's also
the reason why people kept calling him an absolute freak of nature going into the draft.
Now if only he had better hands...
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jan 19, 2009 7:29 PM PST up reply actions
he has excellent hands
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He's dropped a fair share.
In fact around the halfway mark of the season, wasn’t he second only to Braylon Edwards in drops?
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jan 19, 2009 8:59 PM PST up reply actions
I never got to watch the guy play...
But statistically, he was the primary target for the entire year on a team that was often throwing from behind. Having never seen him play, I can only speculate how many double teams Calvin Johnson fought through all year.
double post sorry
it is easy to overvalue measurables, but i think that things like height, weight and BMI are great things to consider. Obviously if Crabtree=Fitzgerald we would HAVE to draft him, but I’m very curious to see how he compares to physical receivers like Dwayne Bowe, Limas Sweed (shudder), Andre Johnson, and even older players like Keenan McCardell and Keyshawn Johnson.
Where did you get this data, is it readily available on the internet?
thanks!
love this reply
it is easy to overvalue measurables, but i think that things like height, weight and BMI are great things to consider. Obviously if Crabtree=Fitzgerald we would HAVE to draft him, but I’m very curious to see how he compares to physical receivers like Dwayne Bowe, Limas Sweed (shudder), Andre Johnson, and even older players like Keenan McCardell and Keyshawn Johnson.
Where did you get this data, is it readily available on the internet?
thanks!
Pro Football Prospectus 2008
Though the data might be able to be found on Football Outsiders, I don’t know. As cited, page 466 of that book.
I challenge you to look at some the players that don't fit within the BMI boxes
DeSean Jackson, Calvin Johnson and Deion Branch off the top of my head.
Eddie Royal!!!
I DRINK YOUR MILKSHAKE!!! I DRINK IT UP!!
yes
DeSean is a good one, but not a true #1, IMO. Only Calvin of that list is a true #1. That is a good question, though, and a fun one. All three of those guys have speed. Maybe Boldin is one. It’s hard to think of guys that don’t fit those confines, esp. in thinking of elite WRs w/out speed. I wonder what Herman Moore ran coming out of college. He is a guy that might compare well with Crabtree. My memory isn’t good enough to go much further back than that.
How about Jimmy Smith?
DeSean Jackson is a #1 receiver
He is usually the first place McNabb looks and runs routes for a possession receiver and a speedster. He is going to be a real phenom and is coached by Jerry Rice.
Elite WRs w/out speed: Marvin Harrison, great route runner not a speedster, Terrell Owens is not really a speedster, Dwayne Bowe has already been mentioned, Isaac Bruce is another route runner, Derrick Mason, Hines Ward, etc. I know alot have a common factor of being old but even before they were not considered speedsters.
by Built2Spill on Jan 19, 2009 10:07 PM PST up reply actions
If there is one team whose fans
should know that it doesn’t take great speed to make an all time great WR…
Do I need to finish the sentence?
The BMI boxes seem like a big stretch to me
Drawing arbitrary boxes around a group of good recievers you decided to put on a graph is.. well completely arbitrary. Its making numbers fit an argument, junk stats.
The best part of Crabtree's game..
it isn’t a measurable; height, weight, size or 40 time.
Like Larry Fitzgerald it is the ability to get open and catch a football, or even when they’re not open.
Crabtree and Fitz in college got open and caught the ball better than most in the history of college football.
It’s yet to be seen if Crabtree, as Fitz has, can translate that to the NFL but I don’t see why not.
Yes, top 10 picks go bust from time to time and they become superstars from time to time. What reassures me about Crabtree is that great hands and having your head screwed on tight translates to the next level.
It could be said that Fitz and Crabtree share their 3 most defining traits: great hands, amazing body control and top notch character, work ethic and drive.
BMI doesn't differentiate fat and muscle
So, as interesting as the size speed combo is, it doesn’t necessarily tell the whole story on what type of body these guys have.
Let's go.
It could be said that Fitz and Crabtree share their 3 most defining traits: great hands, amazing body control and top notch character, work ethic and drive. bq.
That, in and of itself, is exciting!
It is
I hope to god we draft him and he pans out
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jan 20, 2009 11:20 AM PST up reply actions
Question for everyone.
This would never happen since we’re in the same divison, BUT
if Arizona offered Boldin for the #4 pick, and we renegotiated Boldin’s contract to be comparable to a top WR or a #4 pick (about the same I’m assuming), would you do it?
I think I would, even if Crabtree were the next Jerry Rice, there’s a chance he’s not, and Boldin is a top 4 WR in my mind (along with Fitz, AJohnson, and CaJohnson).
he's 28 with an extensive recent injury history (sure, part of that was having his face smashed into a jelly)
I’m not sure I would.
I DRINK YOUR MILKSHAKE!!! I DRINK IT UP!!
Not that theres much chance the Cards would trade him in division
but what do you think it’ll take to trade for Boldin?
A mid first round pick would take care of it.
They’ve got Fitz and solid production from Breaston, so they might be willing to trade Boldin to get some RB help. I certainly wouldn’t give the #4 though.
by SeaTownBlueDevil on Jan 20, 2009 1:16 PM PST up reply actions
I don't know
but trading a #4 pick and then signing for Boldin to 6 year/60 million dollar contract would be impossibly stupid.
Boldin is a top 20 wide receiver with a hell of an injury history.
It would be panned as a great move till an inevitable injury where upon we'd realize he's Deion Branch 2.0
Better off drafting and developing our own WR talent. And by that I don’t mean late round crap like Logan Payne and Courtney Taylor who’d struggle to make rosters just about everywhere.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jan 20, 2009 4:26 PM PST up reply actions
For all those who said the injury concern.
I didn’t realize he was injured that often, but it looks like he gets injured every other season or so. Still, in his 6 seasons, he’s only missed 16 games (not including the 2 in the playoffs this season), which comes down to 1/6 of the time or 16.66, which is often, but he’s still play roughly 85 of the time. Though I suppose it would be a natural assumption that injuries get progessively worse as one ages or has recurring injuries, so 85% would be a BEST CASE scenario.
Deion Branch didn't miss many games either.
But it was his constant nicked-up state that provided the injury concerns, a lot like Boldin. Granted, Boldin is a much more physical player and basically an RB split out wide which leads to his injuries, but if you tell him to play with self-preservation in mind, you essentially take away his best assets.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jan 21, 2009 11:09 AM PST up reply actions
I'd seriously consider it
In 6 years he’s had four 1,000 yard seasons and made the pro bowl 3 times and was the fastest player ever to reach 400 catches. I think maybe his stats would suffer a little here since we’re not gonna be throwing the ball 40 times a game the way AZ does, but that might also protect him a little more from injuries. Plus I wouldnt count his big injury from this year against him, I doubt there is a player in the league that wouldnt have missed games after that hit.
Also, wasn’t injury history a concern when we got Julian Petterson? That worked out just fine, and we added one of our best defenders at the expense of a division rival, and our games against SF are usually 2 of his best games of the year. With Boldin we’d probably get the same thing, he’d play with a serious chip on his shoulder every time we faced the Cards.
by Mind of no mind on Jan 21, 2009 2:25 PM PST up reply actions
I was thinking the same thing.
Arizona is and has been fairly pass happy due to their total inability to runblock, so it’s hard to tell how good his stats really are, sort of like Crabtree’s stats, and like the Phoenix Suns’ stats the past few years (excluding this year).
Oh, as for the chip on the shoulder thing...
I’m not sure I buy that since if you play angry, you probably play stupid. And Julius Jones was HORRIBLE against Dallas. Though if you are the type of player that doesn’t try 100% on every play, you’re certainly more likely to try on every play.
It wasn't hard to see in advance that Thanksgiving was going to be a bad day for Julius Jones.
All 3 interior linemen were out.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jan 21, 2009 4:15 PM PST up reply actions
Peterson's injury was non-reoccurring
Boldin has reoccurring knee problems. That’s a huge red flag. Also, Seattle isn’t getting the Boldin of before, they’re getting the Boldin of now and would pay this injury prone, leaving his prime, top twenty at his position player 60 million over 6 years. It would be a colossal mistake and it’s never going to happen. Not even Boldin’s agent would dream of asking for so much.
A question
I’ve wondered…how much of a leaper is Crabtree? I haven’t seen much about this aspect of his game, and I don’t think it’ll hinder him in any way. But he doesn’t strike me as the kind of leaper Fitz is, although he seems to be more of a physical, run after catch guy than he is.
He seems to regard himself as a leaper
This is from a recent interview with him;
CS: Is there a particular route that you like to run the most?
Crabtree: I don’t really have a favorite route, but if I had to choose I’d say a fade route; just throw it up and I’ll get it.
Sounds like a Fitz kind of play to me. :)
by Mind of no mind on Jan 21, 2009 2:30 PM PST up reply actions
A receiver capable of dominating the 1:1 matchups on jump balls is such a nice weapon.
I remember the Cougs used to do this with Mike Bush in the red zone, we saw it with Randy Moss, and Fitz too. single coverage in that situation and a decent throw is almost a sure TD.
I DRINK YOUR MILKSHAKE!!! I DRINK IT UP!!
Another great point.
Kurt Warner can’t throw a consistent fade route for his life, while Hasselbeck is one of the best at it. This is why Fitz didn’t have a whole lot of TDs for a player of his caliber, because Warner is more comfortable throwing the tough ones at Boldin. Crabtree would be a phenomenal asset in the endzone for us.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jan 21, 2009 4:13 PM PST up reply actions
In related news, the Steelers' Ike Taylor
says he is “up to the task” of covering Fitz.
Good luck Ike. Might wanna try some of those patented Steeler cheap shots to slow him down.
"It's just one big guy against another big guy, both teams know what's at stake. The one of them comes out on top and it feels good."
-Chris Collinsworth, Madden 09
Troy Polomalu is as good as it gets when it comes to help over the top.
..,Which will make it all the more sweeter when Fitz is snagging jump balls over the both of them. Though to be fair, Ike Taylor does suck.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Jan 23, 2009 10:08 PM PST up reply actions

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