The Top Ten Seahawks Stories That Weren't: #3: Lofa Tatupu's Five Shutouts

by John Morgan on Jan 2, 2009 12:47 PM PST in Commentary Comment 9 comments

Sometimes Google's ruthless algorithm finds truth without trying:

Tatupu's prediction was preposterous from the start. Shutouts just don't happen much anymore. The top three scoring defenses in the NFL, Pittsburgh, Tennessee and Baltimore, combined for just one shutout all season. The 2002 Super Bowl Champion Tampa Bay Bucs recorded just two. The 2000 Super Bowl Champion Baltimore Ravens recorded just four. For Seattle to force five shutouts, it would have to be among the best defenses in the history of the NFL. It would have to turn opponent offenses into the expansion, 0-14, 1976 Buccaneers.

Seattle didn't just defy Tatupu's pie-eyed prediction, it sliced open its own stomach and strangled Tatupu with its intestines.

So how'd it go down? We'll talk about this extensively starting next week, but here's a quick top ten list.

10. Kelly Jennings regresses.

9. Rocky Bernard regresses.

8. Brian Russell regresses.

7. Leroy Hill regresses in coverage.

6. Marcus Trufant, Patrick Kerney and Tatupu are hobbled by injuries.

5. Kerney placed on IR.

4. Lawrence Jackson starts over Darryl Tapp.

3. Stultifying seven man blitzes on third and long.

2. Luck reversing.

1. Seattle's defense wasn't that good to begin with.

Each examined in its time, but for now, let's consider the Seahawks defense in 2007. Its VOA was -12.4%, second in the league. It's weighted DVOA was -7.0%, fifth in the league. But its total DVOA was just 5.5%, 11^th in the league. Its variance was very high, 10.4%, 27^th in the league. Most importantly, in 2007, the Seattle Seahawks' average opponent had a -5.5% offensive DVOA, last in the league. Three of those opponents, Carolina, Philadelphia and Baltimore, started second or third string quarterbacks. An important even crippling substitution DVOA doesn't fully account for. Seattle's best defensive player, Kerney, turned 31 December 30^th. His 2007 defied the typical age curve for defensive ends. His 2008 did not. Seattle's defense was young and promising, but, in retrospect, never capable of taking the leap I and so many other Seahawks fans expected it to. Instead, it collapsed.

And Tatupu's shutouts turned into OK Corral like shootouts; Seattle shot to shit like Billy Clanton.

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I remember thinking when I heard that quote...

“Lofa, are you still buzzed?” If memory serves, precisely one team has piitched five shutouts in a season in the modern era: The ‘76 Steelers, who benefited in part of those very Buccaneers. You don’t just need an all-time defense to do it — you need an all-time defense that goes on the kind of roll you see maybe once in a lifetime.

Pittsburgh started 1-4 in that season before Joe Greene and a few other guys just resolved to take the games over. And Joe Greene that year was like Albert Haynesworth with rocket fuel up his butt. Look at the scores from October 17 on — just ridiculous. Hard to imagine in this offensive climate. The Steelers ultimately lost in the playoffs to the eventual Super Bowl champion Raiders in a game where both Franco Harris and Rocky Bleier were hurt. But that ’76 Steelers defense is my pick for the best of all time. When I saw that quote, the word “Hubris” started in my head, and it never really stopped.

by Doug Farrar on Jan 2, 2009 1:24 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Considering that there were, by my count,

only 6 freaking shutouts all year:
New England shut out Bufaflo
Indy shut out Tennessee
Pitt shut out Cleveland
Cincy!!!!! shut out Cleveland
Atlanta shut out Oakland
Carolina shut out KC

This comment is pure insanity. I know it’s a good thing to try to inject some confidence into your teammates and fanbase, but that’s crazy. The way the league works, it is damn near impossible to get shut out, such that the horrid Bengals and Rams, the two lowest scoring teams in the league, were not shut out. (I did cherrypick a little, as the Browns were tied with the Rams for second worst and were shut out twice).

6 shutouts out of 512 total games during the regular season is a shutout rate of 1.17%. I’d go through and develop a probability model for getting 5 shutouts in 16 games against the Bengals, but I am at work afterall. Maybe when I get some time this weekend

I DRINK YOUR MILKSHAKE!!! I DRINK IT UP!!

by abender20 on Jan 2, 2009 2:04 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Hell, I'd just settle for passable defense, much less shutouts.

Those are the type of preseason quotes I tend to ignore, like every year Shaun Alexander talked about running for 8000 yards. Look forward to a bunch more of those before the year this time as well.

"Hey, guess what? Nobody cares who would win in a crazy fantasy fist-fight between Anne Frank and Lizzie Borden." The Monarch

by crushedoptimist on Jan 2, 2009 3:05 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

That video was hilarious.

I showed both my brothers it, and we laughed our asses off.

I don’t remember Lofa’s prediction, but agree with everyone’s assessment that he must’ve been an idiot to do this. Did we improve at all on defense beside Mebane and Wilson being a year older and drafting a DE in the first round (which ended up not helping much at all this year)?

by LantermanC on Jan 2, 2009 3:34 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

We'll never see 5 shutouts in the modern game.

The rules are more skewed toward offense than they were in Joe Greene’s day.
The salary cap and free agency make it virtually impossible to assemble the personnel necessary for such a super defense.

I appreciate Lofa’s confidence and willingness to set lofty goals though. It’s a positive from your defensive leader.

I remember something he said regarding the wireless in his helmet that was both strange and perhaps excessively chivalrous.

Sando: You do not want anybody telling you to look for something.

LT: It’s cheating.

Sando: It’s a legal advantage. It’s not technically cheating.

LT: It is cheating.

It seems like he may be throwing a perfectly legal advantage out the window.

This defense gave up way too many medium and long pass plays, didn’t get to the QB, didn’t consistently stop the run and was generally manhandled by big offensive lines. We need more beef and obviously Brian Russel must be dropped in the nearest volcano to appease the Gods.

"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game."
-Rickey

by Big Jared on Jan 2, 2009 3:40 PM PST reply actions 0 recs