The Story that Held Throughout
Any football fan will tell you a win is a win. That was accomplished before the end of the half. And a win is a win, but a performance is not a performance and a winning team not a winning team. Yesterday's game would have sucked, if a win is a win. Yesterday's game would have been two quarters of fun and two quarters of slog, if a win a is a win. But it didn't and wasn't. It was exciting football for Seahawks fans, because one story held throughout. One story surpassed competitiveness. Seattle had its win and then did something just as important: It proved it could be great.
A football season moves in jumps and sprints, with only 16 games to win and 17 weeks to do it in. If you win enough you get into the playoffs and then the environment changes enough that a regular season dog can become a playoff favorite. But that doesn't happen too often, last two seasons notwithstanding.
Typically, the Divisional Round is the blowout round. It pits a fringe contender and favorite, the favorite at home, the fringe contender away, a week's worth of injuries and wear weaker.
As Seattle learned in 2007, football, for all its brevity and chaos is not random. The best luck can't help a truly overmatched team. The NFL produces dynasties and historic losers. In 43 Super Bowls, eight separate teams have won back to back Super Bowls. In that same time, only five teams have won back to back World Series. It doesn't avail itself to easy calculation, but there's a ton of information packed into every game. I try to do the unquantifiable bits. Player performance is not static, but there is a range.
We can't quantify individual performance in any meaningful way, except maybe at quarterback, but we can get a sense what teams are special. They are, without pretention, the teams that destroy their opponents. Not the guts and glory, grind it out and win close Cardiac whatevers, but the brick shithouses that turn breaks in blowouts.
Seattle isn't really there yet, but its point differential is coming around. By holding the shutout, yesterday's game held excitement throughout, and holding the shutout, Seattle moved it Pythagorean win projection back atop the NFC West. Seattle is +33. Its opponents are -35. That is mostly the Rams, who are -112 overall and -76 in Boller's 2 ¾ games. The 49ers are second at +14 and the only other positive team in the division. Their schedule has been a bit stronger and its opponents have combined for +22. You might notice that point differential was constructed on Sunday, when Seattle put Jacksonville in the red and San Francisco boosted Atlanta from four to 39. It was a 76 point swing and enough to make one schedule look weak and the other strong.
It's a little too early for opponent adjustment. It isn't too early to guess what kind of team Seattle might be. In the games Matt Hasselbeck has started and finished, Seattle has won 69-0. It's +66 if you factor in the half he played in San Francisco. That's not a pace of course, but if we pretend for a second, +66 through 10 quarters projects to +422 through a season. The unbeaten Patriots were +315. No matter the opponent, that is utter domination.
That underscores the significance of Hasselbeck's health. The team is +66 when he's under center and -33 when he's not. The HasselHawks are a playoff contender. The SeneHawks are not. The team, overall, is playing like a contender. It's net +4.4 yards a drive. That would put it ahead of Arizona but behind Minnesota for eighth in 2008. But overall is, not surprisingly, two exceptional weeks of HasselHawks superseding two and half weeks of terrible SeneHawks. Yesterday alone is enough to fustigate the numbers as vulnerable as they are. Seattle somehow averaged 40 yards an offensive drive and allowed only 17.18 yards a defensive drive. Seattle netted 22.82 yards a drive. The 2007 Patriots netted 15.20 yards over a season. That was almost double the 2007 Colts 8.93, but that Colts team would rank first overall in all but three seasons from 1998 to 2008.
In the two games Matt Hasselbeck has started and finished, Seattle net 23.9 yards. It played like the greatest team in the history of the NFL. Some of that's coincidence, playing at home, the strength of its opponents and subtler things like health and matchups. A run first team without a pass rush is a cake matchup for the 2009 Hawks. No, it's not all Hasselbeck, nor is this team guaranteed to contend should he stay healthy. It's too small a sample to say anything for sure. The extremes will regress, but the early numbers seem clear. There's a team in Seattle that has shown it can compete and a team that has shown it cannot. Hasselbeck separates the two.
Everything I hope for depends on a modest-looking thirty-something man and his ability to survive eleven weeks of hits, sacks and scrambles.
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Comments
69-0. Holy shit.
Keep this man healthy.
"I wish the Seahawks were back in the AFCW so we didn’t have to face Willis and Gore twice a year."
by Fearless Frog on Oct 12, 2009 10:26 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
great observation..
love the HasselHawks. ..very clever.
by Mr. Blache III on Oct 12, 2009 10:40 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
There's a team in Seattle that has shown it can compete and a team ON THE ROAD that has shown it cannot.
but I still believe they can change this.
Terrific post, John. If we can only get through the Cardinals game and the Dallas game and get Locklear, Sims, Trufant, and Hill back… this could be a truly good team.
"Football players are temperamental. That's 90 percent temper and 10 percent mental." - Doug Plank
by Stevo's on Oct 12, 2009 10:41 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
There have also been significant changes in personnel in the games away vs the games at home
MLBs and monster DTs and CB2s make a difference.
"Its not that I can't read and write, its just that I don't like to read and write."
-Charlie
by ninjasocks on Oct 12, 2009 10:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But this consistently goes back through the years
so we’ll see.
by jacobstevens on Oct 13, 2009 11:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm holding my optimism for another opponent's test.
The Jags were among the NFL’s worst vs. the pass, and w/out their #1 WR – really the only one capable of being a truly viable threat in their passing-game. Sunday was a quite possibly a perfect storm in Seattle’s favor. I need to see it vs. a quality opponent. If we win two of our next four games, we’re getting somewhere. Heck, if we win one of the next two games, I might allow myself to begin to get excited about our season. All those fine optimistic numbers will go out the window if we get just smashed by Arizona or Dallas. Simply, I need a couple more quality wins to really start believing in this year’s team. Matt does give us hope.
by Misfit74 on Oct 12, 2009 10:46 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
A consitant Running Game would truly help Matt out.
Just as sharp as Matt looked…I think throwing on 1st down a lot was just what the doctor ordered for our hurting O-line. But to continue what Seattle just did against J’ville against other teams they will have to be able to run with more consistency. I think Edge is to old and Jones just lacks vision. Forsett will relieve a lot of pressure on Matt if he becomes the starter. He’s quick to the whole, cathces well out of the backfield and is actually a pretty good pass blocker to. But if we want to keep Matt healthy the rest of the way we will have to run better throughout the season. We can’t afford to put him in 3rd and long situations with our O-line.
(All this said not counting the thrashing we had against J’ville).
by Mr. Blache III on Oct 12, 2009 10:50 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
"actually a pretty good pass blocker to."
Not really. Out of the 3 RBs on the roster, he’s probably the worst at it.
"I wish the Seahawks were back in the AFCW so we didn’t have to face Willis and Gore twice a year."
by Fearless Frog on Oct 13, 2009 9:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ware against Kyle Williams
yikes, that sounds scarey!
by Mr. Blache III on Oct 12, 2009 10:52 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Well... technically in the 49ers game, Seneca threw the TD pass to Julius Jones for the TD
so, it’s not really +66, but +59, however unfair that might be.
Correct me if I’m wrong.
by LantermanC on Oct 12, 2009 11:05 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Pretty sure Matt could have made that pass
by John Morgan on Oct 12, 2009 11:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
In other words
if Matt marches the team 69 yards and Seneca throws a one yard swing pass for the touchdown and I have to attribute the points to one or the other, Matt’s getting them.
by John Morgan on Oct 12, 2009 11:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah I know. But it still boosted Seneca's QB rating and not Hasselbeck's.
However unfair that is.
by LantermanC on Oct 12, 2009 11:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Though I guess you're right.
Hasselbeck gets credit when Mare kicks a XP or FG even though he’s not on the field, so he should get credit for those 7 points.
by LantermanC on Oct 12, 2009 11:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can we maintain a shred of sanity here?
Yeah, the two shutouts are cool and show great potential — but they were against St Louis, which is Terrible With A Capital-T, and a Jacksonville team starting aging Tory Holt and three rookie receivers. Plus, you know, you can’t really discount the three games that happened in between, in which all was certainly not well defensively. The truth of this defense is somewhere in the middle.
And yeah, the 69 points in Hasselbeck’s two games are cool and show great potential — but again, St. Louis is terrible and everyone puts up points on Jacksonville. Let’s hold off talk of greatness until they do it against, you know, a good defense.
I loved Sunday’s game, it was a blast to watch and cheer. But statistical comparisons, even whimsical ones, with the ‘07 Patriots and ’09 Colts are so premature it’s embarrassing. Can we not celebrate and bleed Seahawk Blue without hyping ourselves into talk of Dynasty?
by sev79 on Oct 13, 2009 12:04 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Good teams blow out bad teams.
With Hasselbeck, we’re closer to good than not.
by DetectiveM on Oct 13, 2009 12:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Totally agree.
That’s a reasonable statement. There’s reason to be excited, and I am. Just seems like the tone here since Sunday has been more breathless-teen-at-a-Timberlake-concert than anything else. A week ago, the tone on the site was doomed season, the defense isn’t playing up to expectations, the team that Ruskell built is failing and Ruskell may need to go, etc. After one very good win over a below-average team, the tone becomes Seattle is playing like the Patriots and Colts. I’m just suggesting a little mental balance week to week – keep the wins and losses in perspective rather than hyping them to one end of the spectrum or the other.
by sev79 on Oct 13, 2009 9:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well to be fair, Hasselbeck was showing some serious signs of age or wear and tear from injury.
Slow in his reads, no zip on his throws.
Yesterday he threw some zingers (for him anyways). Showed nice touch in the red zone like he usually does. Made a few great scrambles and went OB or slid in the appropriate amount of time, all with a patchwork offense.
Sure the Jags apparently aren’t that great, but they’re 2-3 just like us and certainly not the Rams or Raiders, and we did crush them in about as badly as you can crush any team. Next week’s game should be a good litmus test to see how good we really are, like the SF and Chicago games, we need to start winning some coin flip games.
by LantermanC on Oct 13, 2009 10:04 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pretty sure it was more a statement that
when this team is rolling, it’s really good. So it’s not that we have a dynasty or are the best team in the NFL, just that this team is certainly able to turn into a playoff caliber team.
by Fear on Oct 13, 2009 12:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sanity???
This is…FIELD GULLS!!!
Child please...
by Airborne Hawk Guy on Oct 13, 2009 8:44 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
This Jags defense held the colts to 14 points.
NEEDS MORE FREEDOM!
by Scruffy Lefty on Oct 13, 2009 9:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Colts are a divisional opponent that the Jags play twice a year.
Suffice to say that the Jaguars are much more familiar with the Colts’ offensive schemes, thus more capable of drawing up a defensive scheme against them than a team in the other conference 3000 miles away that they haven’t played since 2005.
Some of Sunday’s win also may have had to do with the fact that Jacksonville had never played at Qwest Field, and was completely unprepared for the level of crowd noise they would have to contend with.
by Hmph on Oct 13, 2009 1:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's true, but familiarity only counts for so much against Peyton.
The way Manning has been playing, Tony Dungy might have trouble designing a defensive game plan that would stop him.
by thebyron on Oct 13, 2009 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's also true
but nonetheless the Jags have a habit of playing the Colts close and low scoring.
by jacobstevens on Oct 13, 2009 2:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What does "a win is a win" even mean?
The only context I ever hear that phrase is when a team wins ugly, as in, “We turned the ball over 3 times, our kicker missed two field goals, and it took a Hail Mary pass with three laterals to score the winning touchdown, but hey, a win is a win.”
Needless to say, the Seahawks did not win ugly on Sunday.
by Hmph on Oct 13, 2009 2:09 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
You don't get extra wins for blowing a team out.
End of the day, if we blow out Indy and SF eeks out a 1 point win against STL, our records change the same way and we don’t gain anything in the standings.
by LantermanC on Oct 13, 2009 9:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great Post
John, first I have to say that one of the reasons Field Gulls is my favorite stop in my online search for anything Seahawks is your prolific writing. Keep it up please.
Statisitics can be misleading. I love that we have two shutouts, both home games with mostly healthy D. Chicago slipped away. The two road losses were bad, but we were shredded by injuries, not just Matt and the O-line but on D as well. I look forward to what the D can do with our full linebacker corps healthy, Wilson playing opposite Lucas, etc… Curry and Tapp get better every game. Jackson is showing promise. Hope Tru can get back to full strength but not counting on it. Regardless, I think the D can be truly special.
Seems like we’re destined for patchwork O-line the rest of the year, but a healthy Matt getting the ball out quickly and accurately can compensate. I think that’s the biggest improvement over Seneca. Quicker tempo, uicker recognition and reads, quicker at getting the ball out and with more accuracy.
by diehard82 on Oct 13, 2009 7:12 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks
I could write all day. My only limitations are time and respect for my wife. It’s a pleasure to have something so cool to write about and a community that seems excited and engaged.
by John Morgan on Oct 13, 2009 1:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If we sent her flowers would she let you write more?
Or chocolates?
by timlin45 on Oct 13, 2009 1:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's not just that I respect her
I also like her. The respect part is cutting off my Ray Willis post when she got home yesterday. The like part is that when she’s around, I want to spend my time with her. We have been friends over ten years.
by John Morgan on Oct 13, 2009 1:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah it's a modern love story a friend of mine called
tawdry.
by John Morgan on Oct 13, 2009 1:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
More power to you.
Though bitter and jealous I may be that your domestic tranquility prevents more quality Seahawks coverage.
by timlin45 on Oct 13, 2009 1:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Matt making plays with his feet.
This really made me angry. Not at Matt. He has always done whatever it takes to try and get the first down or create a manageable 3rd down.
Matt picked up over 20 yards with his feet. Not desperately in the fourth quarter. He did it early in the game when points matter for our defense.
Seneca’s best ability is with his feet but we never saw that hunger from him. The fact that Seneca seems some completely averse to making something happen – even with his own feet makes him a substandard replacement.
by fender on Oct 13, 2009 7:19 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
d'oh.
“Seems so completely averse”..
That’s what I get for ranting about the backup QB before I’ve finished the first cup of coffee ;)
by fender on Oct 13, 2009 7:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It wouldn't surprise me if the Seahawks traded Seneca for a future starter/backup
after this season, rather than targeting a QB early in the draft. First, I don’t think Locker will declare, and I doubt we’ll be picking in the top 10, and if Matt stays healthy and keeps playing well, we won’t want to carry a second big QB contract just yet. Maybe a trade, Seneca for Campbell if the Skins are going QB with their 1st round pick. Maybe Orton if the Broncos do the same. I could see Denver coveting a guy like Colt McCoy.
by diehard82 on Oct 13, 2009 7:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No Campbell, please.
I get nauseous when folk keep bringing him up. Wallace is better than Campbell and that’s not a ringing endorsement of Seneca…
by Misfit74 on Oct 13, 2009 9:04 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I never watch Campbell play.
What’s so bad about him?
by redwolf75 on Oct 13, 2009 9:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Doesn't throw downfield....master of the check-down. Poor NY/P.
Never thrown more than 13 TD passes in 2+ years as a starter. 17 fumbles the past two seasons. It’s almost that he hasn’t proven to be good more so than he’s proven to suck.
I’m just not a fan. I’m sure someone else could critique his play better than I, though.
by Misfit74 on Oct 13, 2009 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sounds like Trent Edwards.
I saw a Buffalo game last year and he literally did not throw down field the entire game. Marshawn Lynch or a TE or nothing the whole time.
by LantermanC on Oct 13, 2009 10:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That is Zorn
Campbell can toss it. Zorn is petrified and I feel for him, but I wouldn’t judge Campbell by Zorn’s play calling.
by John Morgan on Oct 13, 2009 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wallace is absolutely not better than Jason Campbell
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on Oct 13, 2009 10:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe not better, but there is little disparity between the two.
Wallace did throw only 2 less TDs in ’08 than Cambell. In less than half the attempts.
by Misfit74 on Oct 13, 2009 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But Wallace got some of those TDs off of amazing YAC plays.
The two long TDs by Weaver against SF and the 90 yard TD by Robinson were just little short passes that Weaver and Robinson turned into big plays. Kind of like Jones’ TD against the Bears a few weeks ago.
Even if Campbell is no better at making good decisions, the extra 6-7 inches of hight is going to allow him to make a lot of throws in the pocket that Seneca just can’t make.
If Washington doesn’t resign Campbell, I’m sure some other team will give him a better opportunity to start that we could. I doubt he’ll be looking for a backup job next year.
by Mind of no mind on Oct 13, 2009 7:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
On Seneca
I was a big fan of Seneca until this season. He has under-performed, and I think taken the wind out of the defense. He seemed more competent last year against the Jets and NE, but he plays poorly, with poor decision making and little fire.
At this point, perhaps its time to consider the possibility that Holmgren didn’t do Wallace any favors by slotting him exclusively as the back up QB. It’s probably too late now, but given Seneca’s famed athleticism, he could probably have made a better career for himself at another position.
by Hawksince77 on Oct 14, 2009 2:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
IIRC Wallace was adamant that he be a QB.
It’s something of a shame since he’s shown such skill as a receiver.
by thebyron on Oct 14, 2009 3:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Campbell is in a contract year.
And McDaniels is not going to trade Kyle Orton for Seneca Wallace.
"I wish the Seahawks were back in the AFCW so we didn’t have to face Willis and Gore twice a year."
by Fearless Frog on Oct 13, 2009 9:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't want Orton, either.
I’m not sure who I want. I’m having no problem deciding who I don’t want. Contract year schmontract year.
by Misfit74 on Oct 13, 2009 9:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I'm not going to disagree with you about Campbell.
"I wish the Seahawks were back in the AFCW so we didn’t have to face Willis and Gore twice a year."
by Fearless Frog on Oct 13, 2009 9:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just a thought
The adversity this team is dealing with the injuries at left tackle is very disconcerting…
I personally was impressed that Matt didn’t get properly molested by the jag’s defense after losing his 3rd string Left Tackle…
It feels like this team either gets everything going at full throttle… w/ nitrous or they sputter and die… and the Defense really seems to require time off the field to be effective.
While I’d love to see Jones get on the field and be effective, I think it’s more realistic to look to Lock’s return… and hope that Frye isn’t hurt too badly…
Oh… and for the record… I personally thought oh god… not again when Matt started rushing in Sunday’s game… but felt much better when he slid feet 1st – perhaps a little early… just to ensure he didn’t get nailed…
And I’m not certain if I feel bad about Redding not taking the TD vs getting a good hit on the opposing QB… he should have gone for the TD… but he probably felt nearly as much satisfaction for getting to really hit the QB…
by SciFan on Oct 13, 2009 8:20 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
That scramble
worried the heck out of me too. Nice play by Matty though: get the first, and then slide down without a defender within 5-10 yards of you to ensure that you don’t get hit.
by HuskyJosh on Oct 13, 2009 9:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed on Redding.
That was awesome. He made a beeline for the QB — could have easily scored a TD.
by redwolf75 on Oct 13, 2009 9:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I want DL players like that...
‘Fuck the TD, I wanna drill that QB’
by Strictnine on Oct 13, 2009 3:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm still not convinced that he could have scored a TD.
I was up in the 300 level and had a pretty good view of the field. There were a good number of Jags between Redding and the endzone. Granted, he had some blockers, but I don’t think it was a guaranteed TD.
I will smash your face into a jelly.
by Phildopip on Oct 13, 2009 10:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
We also have to factor in fatigue and potential injury
I think it was the right call. The damage was done, get a pop on Garrard and end the play.
by John Morgan on Oct 13, 2009 1:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I watched the replay on Seahawks.com
It sure looks like he had a convoy, but he deliberately looked at the QB and made a beeline to him. His (and Mora’s) comments afterward also suggest as much.
by Groundhog on Oct 13, 2009 4:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I heard Redding on KJR
He said he messed up – one man to beat and he cut inside, instead of over to the sideline where the convoy had set up. I don’t think he did it on purpose, just a split-second decision. Once it happened, he probably just figured he’d start bowling into whoever got in his way, because he was going to get caught.
"I'm tired of chasing after my dreams. I'll just find out where they're going, and catch up later." - Hedberg
by jteckmann on Oct 13, 2009 6:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think Matt is a savvy enough veteran
that he probably knows how much time he has to get rid of it and I’m sure thats part of the play selection. I didnt see him trying to hold on to it for a long time, that I can remember.
by Strictnine on Oct 13, 2009 1:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thoughts on the Mad Scrambler's attempted downfield blocking
on the Justin Forsett broken halfback pass? I believe my heart skipped a beat when I saw Hass beckoning Forsett to join him on a march to the endzone.
Child please...
by Airborne Hawk Guy on Oct 13, 2009 8:43 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Was it just me...
or did Forsett actually run away from Hass on that play to spare him? If so, unbelievably selfless (could have gotten a few more yards behind a “blocker”) and smart (not sacrificing your QB) play on his part.
by skwid206 on Oct 13, 2009 2:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It really is just that simple sometimes
Good quarterback play can make a team look significantly better than the rest of the roster. For another example, we have only to look at the team we will be playing this coming Sunday.
I like how before we played Jacksonville, posters were commenting on how difficult a matchup it looked like, as the Jags had scored 30 pts two games in a row coming in, including against a good Titans D, and now that we pasted them they’re a mediocre team and we have to do it again for it to really count.
However, the Seneca part of our season did happen, and to really recover we need to win next week. Then we can start talking playoffs again.
"Hey, guess what? Nobody cares who would win in a crazy fantasy fist-fight between Anne Frank and Lizzie Borden." The Monarch
by crushedoptimist on Oct 13, 2009 8:49 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The good news for Matt this next sunday is that Arizona is the worst pass defense in the NFL
The bad news for our defense is they’re one of the best pass offenses.
It’ll probably come down to which defense of ours shows up, but since it’s at home, I expect a shutout.
by B.B.Finnegan on Oct 13, 2009 9:54 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
We only get shutouts every other game at home.
I didn’t realize Arizona’s pass defense was that bad. I guess their DRC and their vaunted safeties, Rolle and Wilson, had me thinking they’d be good. Perhaps it’s a lack of pass rush?
by LantermanC on Oct 13, 2009 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
it's one reason why their good run defense has looked even better in numbers
but their pass defense isn’t that bad. It’s the weakness, but it can be overstated.
I’m a bit worried about this game. Slightly less worried than I was for the 49er game, which still turned out worse than I expected. The thing about Jacksonville, it wasn’t that they were bad, but the matchup favored us, and the big thing is how uniformly they approach every game, with little regard to adjusting for us. We were already built to contain MJD, that wasn’t a stretch.
Fitzgerald changes the equation. We’re two similar teams, and the strengths and weaknesses matchup disjointly, not in a way that gives one team the edge. They’re a bit better in pass offense and a bit worse in pass defense. With respect to both QBs and Houshmandzadeh, Fitzgerald stands alone as the best component to either passing game. We’re inherently at a disadvantage against him.
We could stop him. We could box him in like Steve Smith. We could keep Warner from seeing him past 2 seconds or 15 yards. We could succeed, or fail, I dunno. But it makes for a problem in hiding our pass defense and running game, preventing drives from starting and passing methodically down the field. This will be a tougher game.
by jacobstevens on Oct 13, 2009 12:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The utter dominance of Tapp, Curry, others this last week
really makes me optimistic about pressuring Warner, which will be downright essential given the parameters of the matchup.
Is Arizona pretty healthy right now?
And all the land was in ruin, and burnination had forsaken the countryside.
by Cheddar28 on Oct 13, 2009 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think so.
Their tackles are bad in pass pro, but they know their limits and know what they need to do. They make it work.
by jacobstevens on Oct 13, 2009 12:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What do you mean?
That they have backs block more often? Go for more quick passes? Rotate linemen? Screen passes?
And all the land was in ruin, and burnination had forsaken the countryside.
by Cheddar28 on Oct 13, 2009 8:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know
blocking TEs, blocking backs. Dropbacks and routes, you can tailor to how much time you can count on. I don’t fully know what they do, exactly. But they definitely work around those tackles’ deficiencies.
by jacobstevens on Oct 14, 2009 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
They've got a pretty good run defense (not adj for opponent), though
And Rogers-Cromartie has returned to 2008 form.
"Its not that I can't read and write, its just that I don't like to read and write."
-Charlie
by ninjasocks on Oct 13, 2009 10:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
HasselHawks are a playoff team
With Matthew under center, and the talent level on this defensive unit. There isn’t any game on the schedule I would be shocked to see a win. Heck there isn’t a game I would be shocked to see turn into a blowout.
There is no longer a question of whether or not this team has the right talent in the right places for a deep playoff run. There are now only 2 questions.
1) Can the offense get and stay healthy?
2) Can the defense bring their hammer with them on the road?
If those two questions turn into a yes more often than a no, I’m looking forward to a fun January.
by timlin45 on Oct 13, 2009 1:23 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
And can they play superior opponents on the road and win?
And can they play superior opponents even at home in the playoffs and win? Those have not been answered yet, in the slightest.
A win against the Colts, even after a game like yesterday, would still have posed as a shock. The Vikings and Packers will be very tough. Too far away to eyeball what I think but I do agree that capability displayed, no win should be a shock henceforth.
but with the exception of the Lions, here, and I suppose the Rams, there — but again, a lot can change by then, let’s just focus on ARI — no loss would be a shock, either.
by jacobstevens on Oct 13, 2009 2:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good addendum
Its a monkey this team is going to have to get off their back.
I only see one team left on the schedule that I would classify as clearly superior to the HasselHawks — the Vikings. It’ll be fun to see if Favre starts his annual fade Nov 22nd or not.
I see two teams as likely superior to the HasselHawks – GB and TEX.
San Fran and Arizona are not at this point superior teams. I see them as currently on par with the Hawks.
As it stands right now I think a healthy Hawks team should win the following games.
vs ARI
at DAL (did you see that chiefs game?!)
vs DET
at STL
vs SF
vs TB
vs TEN
That takes us to 8-8. If we can go take one from Houston, Ari or GB on the road then I think we win this division.
by timlin45 on Oct 13, 2009 3:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That seems about right.
This weekend is the pivot point, in my mind. If we go into the bye week at .500 we’re in good shape due to how many starters should return from injuries after the week off. If we head in at 2-4 with two losses in our division we’re in a pretty deep hole and would have a really hard time making the playoffs.
To those lucky fans who’ll be there, in the words of Bob Dylan:
“Make it fucking loud!”
by thebyron on Oct 13, 2009 3:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Green Bay?
I’m not so sure.
I’m a big fan of Aaron Rodgers and their weapons in the passing game, but gosh…that offensive line is really bad. I think our pass-rush should have an easy advantage, Mebane could probably collapse the pocket on every snap.
"I wish the Seahawks were back in the AFCW so we didn’t have to face Willis and Gore twice a year."
by Fearless Frog on Oct 13, 2009 6:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bad running game. No offensive line.
It’s the weather that concerns me as well as playing at 10 AM.
The average human being supposedly eats 8 pounds of food per day. Aaron Curry eats 8 humans for breakfast.
by SSreporters on Oct 13, 2009 7:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like your breakdown
but superior was probably not a good choice of words. I mean superior, relative to the league, not to the Hawks. Just beat a good team on the road. Beat them, meaning if we do slip past a team like Dallas, it’s not due to their self-destruction. Beat them.
by jacobstevens on Oct 14, 2009 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Vikings scare the shit out of me.
"I wish the Seahawks were back in the AFCW so we didn’t have to face Willis and Gore twice a year."
by Fearless Frog on Oct 13, 2009 3:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm waiting for the inevitable
Farve int fest. It happens every time the cold sets in.
by Fear on Oct 13, 2009 3:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And they should
Ironically I’d still be just as scared if I was a Vikings fan.
They’ve sold the farm for a 1 season shot at the gold.
Their whole season rests on a question nobody will be able to answer until December…“Can Brett Favre produce for 19 games?”
by timlin45 on Oct 13, 2009 3:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
but they're one Tapp/Curry/Reed sack
from being a Favre-less team.
by Strictnine on Oct 13, 2009 3:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
In theory, but to me, they are a match-up nightmare for us.
A couple of quick TDs by Peterson and they have the opportunity to pin their ears back for the rest of the game. Jared Allen would give Walt problems, I’m already dreading what he does to Locklear/Williams/Street FA. Not to mention Hutch against Cole is probably going to be in their favor 95% of the time.
"I wish the Seahawks were back in the AFCW so we didn’t have to face Willis and Gore twice a year."
by Fearless Frog on Oct 13, 2009 6:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I love how underlit this game is in the national media.
I think they gave more attention to our limegreen jerseys.
Neither the Jags nor the Hawks are a very high-interest franchise, I guess.
by Vasilii on Oct 13, 2009 3:30 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Jacksonville is arguably the smallest market in the NFL.
"I wish the Seahawks were back in the AFCW so we didn’t have to face Willis and Gore twice a year."
by Fearless Frog on Oct 13, 2009 6:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Buffalo is smaller and of course Green Bay is tiny
but you are correct that despite Jacksonville being a big city, the metropolitan area is small. I figure a bit part of the problem is that the Falcons dominate southern Georgia, a place Jacksonville needs a foothold in, and the Dolphins dominate Florida. If you live in Florida and are not a Dolphins fan, I figure Tampa Bay winning the Super Bowl probably swayed you to be a Bucs fan. Also, Jacksonville has the misfortune of being in the AFC with the Dolphins. Jacksonville is kind of crowded out and hasn’t been relevant in years. I think that franchise is moved sooner or later.
by John Morgan on Oct 13, 2009 7:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No pro team really has foothold there
It’s definitely a weird market. Theoretically, it should work since they’re all football crazy. But they couldn’t give a flip about the NFL. UF and FSU are the pro teams. The Dolphins and Falcons really don’t factor either. The Falcons reach barely extends out of Atlanta and in my experience they actively dislike the Dolphins (in Florida, the farther north you go the more “in the South” you are) but that hasn’t translated into any sort of rivalry.
Also doesn’t help that central Jacksonville is about the size of Tacoma and treated the same way by the locals. And there’s a huge military presence – so most of the area’s target demographic are transients and don’t adopt the local team.
"I'm tired of chasing after my dreams. I'll just find out where they're going, and catch up later." - Hedberg
by jteckmann on Oct 14, 2009 8:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

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