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A Bad Time for an Otherwise Good Decision

Four down football is coming. Its path to Seattle was retarded last Sunday. Jim Mora chose to go for it on fourth and one from the Seattle 38 because of frustration and desperation. The decision did not swing the game. Probability was already decidedly in Detroit's favor. But even most proponents of going for it on fourth would have been wary of going for it on one's own 38.

The Seahawks were favorites at home. The defense was not struggling - it had been burdened with two short fields in three drives. Seattle was down fourteen, but it was early in the first and Detroit's offense had shown no signs of being able to run away with the game. Seattle was creating pressure. On the preceding drive, the defense had quickly forced third and ten but was scored on when Bryant Johnson disguised a push-off within a one-handed catch. It was not an egregious no call, but nor was it call to panic.

Seattle had run twice and twice Julius Jones ran into his blockers attempting to find a hole. The interior offensive line was not creating push and, for whatever reason, the Lions linebackers where charging the line. They did not expect Seattle to pass. Matt Hasselbeck finally did pass, but it was a short pass to Justin Forsett and Forsett did the man's working, breaking two tackles to put Seattle within one.

On fourth and one, the Seahawks piled their linemen up and motioned their third tight end in to play fullback. The Lions were standing atop each other to attack the middle. Jones received the snap and ran into a wave of bodies. He wasn't even close.

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The Lions dinked and dunked their way into, out of and back into field goal range. Before the failed first down attempt, Seattle had but an 11% chance of winning. After the field goal, Seattle had an 11% of winning. The field goal had done little but cash in the field position Seattle had ceded after failing to convert. It underscores just how aggressive coaches should be on fourth down that even a poor decision, poorly planned and poorly executed, didn't bury a team already down 14 in the first. But it was a bad decision and the execution made it worse. Sometimes a coach needs to step back, not consider the game in a global sense, but as it's unfolding, the individual matchups won and lost, punt the damn ball and allow the defense a chance to rally.

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TMQ much?

Seriously though, I love going for it and I’ve heard debate that in this day and age the next generation of coaches will be the ones to do so, and a big reason is playing video games.

I’m serious.

Playing Madden, you learn that treating the field like 4 downs all the time gives you more opportunity to get both short yardage strikes, and to be able to afford a failed long yardage strike. It drives my buddy nuts when I go for it on 4th and 3 from my own 40. But I can’t stop his offense anyway, so I might as well try to stop them from the 40 instead of the other 40… especially with the reward factor of a continued drive on the flip side.

It could lead to higher “shootouts” but the demoralizing aspects are huge. If your team is prepped for it, your team doesn’t mind failing at the conversion, but if the other team makes 3 stops they feel their work is done, and it is terribly demoralizing to then give up a 4th down conversion and start over. Heck, think of it from a fan’s perspective. How often do you cringe harshly when the Hawks give up a 3rd and long. Now just think how much worse you’d feel if instead of converting 3rd and 12, it’s a 4th and 8. Your remote might very well find a final resting place in your tv!

Not only that, but how often do you see a 25 yard punt out of bounds avoiding Devin Hester or Percy Harvin? Why bother when it’s 4th and 3? Why not just go for it and avoid putting the ball in the most dangerous guy on the other team’s hands.

There’s a high school coach in the south somewhere that always goes for it, his team is prepped for it and they are winning a ton of games. I wouldn’t be against Jim Mora being the guy to decide we’re the team to break from NFL tradition and start the trend.

Bird Law in this country isn't governed by reason.

by whiskey chainsaw on Nov 11, 2009 11:17 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

he was on with Mitch in the Morning a couple of weeks ago.

he said that he onside kicks every time too. maybe we should do this. just get all our best hands guys out there and kick on-sides every time.

"What is it about good sex that makes me have to crap?"

by durteehawk on Nov 11, 2009 1:38 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

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