Which 1st round RB prospect would you prefer?
by kearly on Nov 11, 2009 2:25 PM PST
Email
PrintThere may not be an Adrian Peterson sized talent in this draft, but there is some very good depth at the position. When the Seahawks come to the podium for their first selection in the 2010 draft, it is likely they will have their choice of any declaring NCAA RB. Unless the Seahawks love Spiller or Best, I have a hard time seeing them go RB with their first pick, which figures to be in the tweens. However, Denver's pick will be near the end of the 1st round and that is likely where we will begin to see teams making a run on this class of running backs. It is possible that Spiller and/or Best could still be on the board by Denver's pick.
You can read about 2010's RB prospects at Walterfootball or dozens of other notable sites. In case you are too lazy, a quick description of some of the RB's that interest me personally:
CJ Spiller: ZBS RB's that excel tend to be either very fast or very powerful. Duckett and Dunn in Atlanta's "DVD" offense is a great example of that. Spiller is the quickest, most agile RB in this draft. His moves are almost as good as Knowshon Moreno's last year but unlike Moreno Spiller has "take it to the house" speed. Spiller is also a very good return man and a potent receiver. Simply stated, he's not just a good running back, but a legit playmaker who adds explosiveness to an offense. He's not a workhorse type though and would probably be a Felix Jones type in the NFL who splits carries. Spiller might end up winning the Heisman and his stock is rising. Unfortunately, I see Spiller as being too big a reach for the Seahawks first 1st rounder but will likely be off the board before Denver's 1st rounder. The Seahawks do not own a 3rd rounder so trading up from Denver's pick would be difficult. If he was still there by Denver's pick, I would definitely hope Ruskell considers him.
Jahvid Best: Probably considered the best RB in this class a few months ago. Best fits the Ruskell mold of elite players that have slumps in their last college seasons. Not that Best is slumping in 2009- but barring a ridiculous finish, he's not going to match his 2008 total of 1500+ yards and a crazy 8.1 YPC. Best is likely to be drafted lower than his talent and past production dictates, in that sense he would be a John Carlson-esque selection. I think I'd prefer Spiller to Best, just because Spiller is so damn fun to watch and football is entertainment after all. Best is more of a featured back. The Seahawks run ZBS and probably desire a 2 back running game, but the last two years Julius Jones has essentially been the teams featured back. Its not unthinkable they could draft a featured back like Best and use Forsett on some passing downs since he's been pretty good as a 3rd down back.
Toby Gerhart (rounds 2-4): Gerhart is having an impressive senior season (1217 yards / 16 TDs and counting) to follow up a nice junior season (1136 yards and 15 TDs). As said above, a prototypical ZBS two back offense prefers a power back and a speed back. Gerhart is a nice powerback option that should be available later in the draft. My dream scenario would be the Seahawks somehow drafting Spiller with Denver's pick and then nabbing Gerhart in the 4th. Gerhart has had 100+ yards in all but two games this season, and the two games he didn't he had 82 and 96 yards respectively, and a 4.8 YPC in both efforts. Gerhart doesn't figure to be an elite power rusher in the NFL (otherwise he'd be a 1st rounder), but he's been very impressive every week in a high parity PAC-10 conference. I think he'd be a steal in the 4th. Granted, I'm probably biased because the two games I saw him were when he single-handedly raped UW and Oregon.
90 comments
|
1 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I would have voted round 2-4
but I didn’t want to pick a RB in round 2. I’m fine with Jones and Forsett.
Jones and Forsett are not the future at RB for Seattle.
Neither one of those guys has elite RB skills.
"What is it about good sex that makes me have to crap?"
Do we need a elite RB?
abender20 hates freedom.
by Scruffy Lefty on Nov 11, 2009 3:40 PM PST up reply actions
Indy and NO
Seem to be doing fine without one.
abender20 hates freedom.
by Scruffy Lefty on Nov 11, 2009 3:41 PM PST up reply actions
It's likely due to Alexander
So in many people’s minds, the team’s most successful years are tied in with the idea of having an elite RB, and the realization that his decline and the team’s coincided directly.
But they do have awesome QBs
Which kinda makes up for it
Which is why I'd rather draft one of those awesome QB's with my 1st rounder.
abender20 hates freedom.
by Scruffy Lefty on Nov 11, 2009 4:35 PM PST up reply actions
So you're saying all we have to do
is draft the next Peyton Manning or Drew Brees (with a mid-round 1st)? And that’s easier than drafting an elite RB?
"Its not that I can't read and write, its just that I don't like to read and write."
-Charlie
Elite QB generally ensures a team that's consistently in the playoff hunt.
Elite RBs do not.
by LantermanC on Nov 11, 2009 9:42 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
thanks... I had tried that but my browser wasn't reading the ajax code...
I updated my Safari and it’s working now.
Bring Your Game, Leave Your Name.
Good thing we have two first-rounders then.
RB/QB or QB/RB unless we have a shot at Suh/G.McCoy/Berry…that will make for interesting decisions.
I'll take the Offensive Line improvement with a side of QB, please.
And flapjacks. Too early for flapjacks?
Bird Law in this country isn't governed by reason.
by Tyler Jorgensen on Nov 12, 2009 12:36 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Never to early for Flapjacks.
abender20 hates freedom.
by Scruffy Lefty on Nov 12, 2009 3:36 PM PST up reply actions
Indy splits carries between 2 former 1st rounders.
NO is a weird case – the 2nd overall pick playing 3rd string behind two UDFA’s. But Pierre Thomas was a beast in college who kept Mendenhall on the bench – I have no clue why he went undrafted unless he slipped through the cracks because of lack of team success. Bell I’d put in the same camp as Forsett – a guy that had the production but knocked because size/speed concerns.
I voted “draft in rounds 2-4”. I don’t think we need an “elite” RB – i.e. one that shoulders the load. I’m fine with RBBC. But we have to add more raw talent to that committee. This organization has not spent a 1st day pick on an RB since Morris, and that has to change.
IMO – it’s like the QB debate this offseason. The occasional success of of late-round guys like Brady and Hass creates a false impression that it’s easy to groom late round picks, when the truth is the majority of talent goes in the early rounds. The late rounders are the rare lightning in the bottle.
"I'm tired of chasing after my dreams. I'll just find out where they're going, and catch up later." - Hedberg
I'd be tempted to argue ALL qb success is lightning in a bottle...
Bird Law in this country isn't governed by reason.
by Tyler Jorgensen on Nov 12, 2009 12:38 PM PST up reply actions
But neither is elite.
abender20 hates freedom.
by Scruffy Lefty on Nov 12, 2009 9:08 AM PST up reply actions
True. It seems they go for guys that are versitile and really fit their system well.
That, over the best talent or biggest upside. They get what they draft: average to slightly above-average backs. At last that’s how it seems since Faulk or James were there.
In a ZBS, you don't need an RB with elite skills.
Sam Bradford, future Seattle Seahawk.
by Carl Shinyama on Nov 11, 2009 7:24 PM PST up reply actions
You never turn away talented players
A ZBS can make more out of less, help limit negative yardage. But you plug a better player into the system, and you get better results. Ask Raider fans who they’d rather have carrying the ball – Fargas or Bush.
A ZBS still requires a talented RB. It just places emphasis on a different skillset, one that is sometimes undervalued by other teams. Denver was successful for so long, not because they could just plug any RB into the system, but because they knew exactly what they were looking for.
"I'm tired of chasing after my dreams. I'll just find out where they're going, and catch up later." - Hedberg
I didn't say you turn away talented players, nor did I say that the ZBS doesn't require a talented RB.
I said you don’t need a RB with elite skills in the ZBS.
Sam Bradford, future Seattle Seahawk.
by Carl Shinyama on Nov 11, 2009 10:05 PM PST up reply actions
I vote for rounds 2-4.
Spiller will probably be gone, I’m not drinking Best’s Kool-Aid, and Dwyer’s form doesn’t do it for me. Royster is intriguing but I’m not sure. I hope they try and get someone in the third. QB in 1, OL in 1.5, Crezdon Butler in 2nd, and so forth.
I voted the same and agree with your thinking
but consider that Seattle currently does not have a 2010 3rd round pick.
Not yet
Ruskell loves to make trades in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, though. You never know how things will shake out.
"Its not that I can't read and write, its just that I don't like to read and write."
-Charlie
Ruskell is more prone to move up than down
Maybe a trade happens and the Seahawks pick up a 3rd, just pointing out that we currently don’t have a 3rd since you mentioned the Seahawks using a 3rd round pick which they currently do not have.
Ahh touche
I forgot we didn’t have a 3rd…maybe we’ll trade Kearney to Oakland for a 3rd round…and DMC.
What happens if we take an elite first-round RB
and he ends up looking like Beanie Wells?
"Its not that I can't read and write, its just that I don't like to read and write."
-Charlie
I expect him to get better
My point was that even if we signed the top RB in the draft, it wouldn’t be a magic bullet. Both Wells and Moreno were highly-touted RBs who have struggled to grab and hold the starting position.
"Its not that I can't read and write, its just that I don't like to read and write."
-Charlie
Well that's the 2nd last pick of the 1st round
so he’s cheap. And Beanie Wells is starting to look like he could be a stud in the making. Take into account how bad Arizona’s offensive line has been at run blocking for the last half decade and he looks even better.
Wells is a monster.
When he learns to pass-block and run routes/catch it, he’ll be a 3-down player. He’s explosive and powerful. Some runs of his have really impressed me.
Wells was a steal at the end of the 1st
You can’t expect a guy like him to go that late.
"Its not that I can't read and write, its just that I don't like to read and write."
-Charlie
This sort of stuff happens. Look at the draft order and the teams picking at each spot.
Other than Denver (and they took Moreno anyway) and Cleveland, who else really needed a back at that level of investment?
Sure, players fall on the draft boards all the time for all types of reasons
The fact that it happens doesn’t mean that you can depend on it happening for particular players you desire. The Cards had no expectation that Wells or Moreno would fall to them and he was considered one of the great steals of the draft because no one else did.
Just for giggles, these teams could have drafted Moreno or Wells in hopes of upgrading an aging or mediocre RB position: Redskins, Saints, Chargers, Bucs, Broncos, Eagles, Lions, Browns, Colts (who knows why they grabbed Donald Brown), Bills (Lynch is always in trouble). Sure, a lot of them had greater need at other positions many/most/all GMs try to draft the best pick available.
"Its not that I can't read and write, its just that I don't like to read and write."
-Charlie
Mostly agree with you, but...Bills?
Fred Jackson proved in the first three weeks that they’ve got all the quality depth they need.
bitch got out the car lookin more like Freddie Jackson.
"What is it about good sex that makes me have to crap?"
I think the Bills could have grabbed Moreno/Wells as BPA
Jackson is getting close to 30 and Lynch has had all sorts of off-the-field issues. They didn’t necessarily need a new RB, but wouldn’t necessarily have problems putting him on the roster.
"Its not that I can't read and write, its just that I don't like to read and write."
-Charlie
You undersell Lynch.
It would have been asinine for the Bills to draft an early RB. That would be like us drafting a linebacker in the first round of next year’s draft.
I wanta running back in the mid rounds.
I don’t think we need a stud, but someone that can come in for 8-10 carries a game, someone like Bush for the Raiders or Charles for KC.
SEA!
Steve Slaton!
(in his rookie year)
"Its not that I can't read and write, its just that I don't like to read and write."
-Charlie
I'd love Spiller, but
A workhorse, every-down RB like Dwyer might be a better idea. I’m not sure if Spiller can carry a similar load to Chris Johnson. I’ll be very curious how these guys perform at the combine and other off-season activities.
I’m really, really not sold on Scott or Gerhart and I’d puke if we too either one.
Others I like that could declare are DeMarco Murray (Oklahoma) or Ryan Matthews (Fresno St.). They could be first round talents available in the 2nd or 3rd.
My philosophy on RB is that like LB, its a fairly fungible position
Pro-bowl LB can be found relatively easily after the 1st round. In fact, as JM said before, nearly every HOF LB was not selected in the 1st. Similarly, many of today’s most productive RB’s were not 1st round picks. Obviously, Tomlinson and Peterson were/are game changing RB’s, but in most cases, the difference between a 1st round RB and a early/mid round RB is not Earth shattering like it would be for QB or WR.
I voted for rounds 2-4. Seattle could make use of a featured back with talent but it is not essential either. Some of these prospects that fall out of the 1st round do so because they are not complete backs. The beauty of RBBC is that you don’t necessarily need “complete” backs (although Knapp has said he prefers them), you don’t need a single back that is fast AND powerful. You could have one guy that is your “fast” guy, and another who is a “power” guy. This draft has a few guys that fit the “power” billing (and regardless of what you think about the teams current RB, its unquestionable that they lack a power back and need one), and those power backs will likely be drafted in rounds 2-4. Gerhart is my personal favorite.
I do like Spiller though- IF he’s a late 1st round selection. Lets say the Broncos 1st round pick is 27th. If Spiller is still there at #27, that’s a very good value. While I normally prefer to see the team avoid 1st round picks on positions like S, TE, C, LB, and RB, thats a late 1st were talking about and Spiller would be great value. Now, I’m not saying if both Spiller and Charles Brown are available at #27 that you take Spiller, but I would say its worth considering.
"Complete backs"
While Knapp doesn’t need a 6’4" 250lb RB with 4.20 speed, I think he really wants guys that can both pass protect and catch out of the backfield. We’d probably want a back on the bigger side (so that we get a guy that compliment’s Forsett), but I think the pass protection and receiving skills are key.
"Its not that I can't read and write, its just that I don't like to read and write."
-Charlie
I agree
By complete backs I didn’t mean speed/power freaks like AP, but rather do anything RB’s that can be in the backfield on any down in any situation. Guys that can run in multiple situations and also pass block and receive. I guess the way I said it implied otherwise. Sorry for the confusion.
You said 6'4" 250lb RB with 4.20 speed
And I JIZZED IN MY PANTS. I’m going to go make that on Madden…
I loved doing that in Madden
Making a huge runningback with just ridiculous stats and watching him literally run over the opposing team.
by aerozeppelin on Nov 11, 2009 11:47 PM PST up reply actions
I pretty much agree.
Fungible positions that seem fairly easy to fill, but if value is there, don’t pass it up.
Well-stated.
Given the choice between Suh and Spiller…what then? Certainly the value would be with the elite DT over the RB. Elite QB vs. elite DT would be a tougher one, but edge probably goes to the QB. I’m talking myself into believing we won’t add the next elite DT and that makes me sad. Pair the right guy w/ Mebane and we have the next Williams Wall – or better.
I wonder if that's how Ruskell sees it?
Maybe he’d settle for a lower-drafted QB if we can grab Suh or the like w/ our first first-rounder. That’s a tough call.
Won't happen
Ruskell has stated his desire for drafting OL help in the first.
"What is it about good sex that makes me have to crap?"
I think he was saying that we wouldn't go for Suh if he was available
because we have greater need on the OL.
I’m not so certain that that’s the case. I think Ruskell is really averse to drafting for need and would try to address any gaping holes in free agency first. If we go into the next draft with Frye, Locklear, Sims, Unger, Spencer, Willis, Williams, Vallos, Wrotto, plus an extra backup or two, I think Ruskell would feel like he had more freedom to draft BPA.
The main problem with our current OL is a lack of continuity due to a rash of injuries (like our WR corps last year). I think Ruskell will draft OL this year (probably a couple) but I don’t think that he’d feel forced to use his highest pick on one (unless he saw a lot of value in a LT).
"Its not that I can't read and write, its just that I don't like to read and write."
-Charlie
One thing that worries me and I don't know if ti should, but Suh had knee surgery his freshman year.
He hasn’t been injured since I think, but bad knees are not a good starting point.
I think DTs are always risky
You’ve got these massive, massive dudes expected to expend a lot of effort pushing through two other massive dudes to get to the QB. You’ve got to worry about them being injured (human bodies have a difficult time holding up under that strain) or taking plays off or just tiring out at the end of games.
If you’re lucky enough to get a guy that (a) stays healthy, (b) doesn’t get tired/lazy and © is effective in the jump to the NFL, then you’ve got to hope that you’ll hold on to him when Dan Snyder comes sniffing around.
"Its not that I can't read and write, its just that I don't like to read and write."
-Charlie
I expect we'll be picking at about 10 and 22
that’s right, we wind up 6-10 and our pick is at 10 because there are so many “bad” teams with worse records, and Denver bats under .500 from here on out and winds up with a record of only 9-7. I hope we trade down from both picks and net additional 2nd/3rd rounders. Take an athletic LT like Brown with our 1st pick at about 15, DE like Morgan with our 2nd at about 27, and Hudson with our 3rd (2nd rounder, 42 overall). Then with additional 2nd and 3rd rounds picks, go DB with Brandon Ghee or Perrish Cox and Nate Allen or Myron Rolle. 4th round seems like a good spot to grab a RB to compete with Jones and Forsett for playing time, someone like Ben Tate from Auburn. I think they would make a good 3 headed monster, and Tate could become a future workhorse. I love Spiller, including his return skills and wouldn’t complain about that choice, however, we have to upgrade the O-line and stock it with talented youth for the future. Taking a 1st round RB would be like Detroit taking Stafford before a LT last year. I’m a big believer in building from the inside out. Competent, if not dominant O-line and D-line is a must.
Sounds ok to me, except if Bradford is there at 10, don't trade down.
As for Safeties. Nate Allen sounds ok, but he’s from South Florida, so probably a no go with Ruskell. How about Earl Thomas from Texas if he decides to declare?
Thats very optimistic for Denver
They are 6-2 with 4 games remaining against Washington, KC and Oakland. 4-4 or 5-3 seems much more realistic in the last 8. And Denver is definitely not out of the hunt for a bye week. Pittsburgh plays in maybe the toughest division in the NFL this year.
Also, Denver will probably win their division which means a home playoff game against a wildcard team. If they win that game, their draft pick would end up in the 25+ range.
I’m thinking their pick will likely be between 25 and 28.
I'm hoping SD's surge continues
I think it could be a tight battle for the AFC West. Go SD!
God that would be hilarious if San Diego caught Denver again
Denver fans would never be able to sleep again.
Dwyer in the 2nd??
lol you guys are smokin… not a chance. Dwyer will be the top back drafted, just like he was supposed to be before the season. Lets be rational for a second:
Dwyer is a 235 pound “power back”, ya know, 30 touchdowns in just 451 career carries (he is really only now finishing up his second year as a starter). That is a label that the draft boards have wrongly placed on Dwyer because he is ridiculously good in short yardage and at running the dive play in general. Lets look at Dwyer’s game logs to see his “long” runs, since I only get one long run per game here, we are actually not getting all his best runs in this list.. nevertheless:
88, 85, 74, 69, 66, 65, 60, 59, 58, 43, 41, 39, 37, 36
(I omitted everything under 35)
Do those look like powerback runs to you?
Dwyer has the best combination of power, speed, and vision of any back in the draft. He is simply off-the-charts. His YPC the last three years is 5.3, 7.0. 6.5. That is playing against good competition.
Best and Spiller are more exciting to watch, but Dwyer has all you want in a back. Don’t forget that Dwyer is also a full two years younger than Spiller, the dude will still be TWENTY during the draft next year… he still has time to add a lot of the little things.
I think the fundamental advantage Dwyer has over these guys is that he is unbelievably good on 1st and 2nd down. The guy explodes into the linebackers for typical gains of 5-7 yards against base defense.
I think Forsett is looking like a solid 3rd down back for us… If we pick up a back it should be a guy who can run up the middle and in short yardage. I don’t think we should spend a first round pick on a back though. We need OL and QB so much more..
well said
i think Spiller isn’t as tough and looks a little small.
"What is it about good sex that makes me have to crap?"
Here's the thing, the same thing was said about Beanie Wells.
He was considered a potential top 5 or 10 pick. Where did he end up? 31.
Agreed
But would you rather have Dwyer and a 4th round OG, or Hudson and a 4th round RB, like Ben Tate, who is solid in his own right?
Would love Hudson and a 4th round RB
Speaking of Tate, is Golden Tate declaring? I know WR is not a priority and I don’t follow college football well enough to know where he would rank and what round he projects to go in, but jesus he’s an exciting player.
Back to RB: i agree with the idea that, generally, I don’t want my team spending early picks on RB when other, tougher-to-fill, positions are of greater priority.
System Tag?
Georgia Tech runs the triple option which translates out to a lot of open seams and linebackers looking the wrong way. Thus the whole system tag that seems to be applied to QBs when they play in a favorable system is applicable. Though it is most certainly true that for his size Dwyer is freak fast he just seems to be a less shifty, more powerful J Stew, which is not a bad thing i would love to have J Stew on the Seahawks, but like J stew it is conceivable that Dwyer drops to the late 1st early 2nd.
by ClaypidgeonCoug on Nov 12, 2009 10:13 AM PST up reply actions
I'll be curious to see how his measurables look this off-season.
I’ve also been hoping he compares well to JStew. If he runs a sub 4.55 forty at 230+ that will really be something. I’m curious what his Speed Score is, but I’ll try and be careful not to overvalue times, etc. a bit more this year. I went crazy with it before.
Newton is a fan
for sure with his speed and size he is a punishing load to tackle it is just in the triple option the reads are being done by the qb so i wonder how well he can do it out of a pro set also they never pass so how is he as a receiver and a pass blocker. These are all questions that his 40 time are not going to answer so yeah if he drops a 4.4 at the combine i am going to have seriously restrain myself.
by ClaypidgeonCoug on Nov 12, 2009 4:39 PM PST up reply actions
Walter Football has Dwyer currently as a 2nd rounder
Most sites rank Dwyer 3rd among RBs. And this is not a “banner year” for RB talent. The way things currently stand, the first RB will probably get taken in the late teens/early 20s. The 3rd taken would probably be in the late 20s/early 30s.
I think Dwyer could fall that far.
And I would love it if he did. Of all the RB’s, he’s the one that I’d want, but RB is actually one of the few positions that I want addressed in the first two rounds..
Sam Bradford, future Seattle Seahawk.
by Carl Shinyama on Nov 13, 2009 6:04 PM PST up reply actions
Don't want*
Sam Bradford, future Seattle Seahawk.
by Carl Shinyama on Nov 14, 2009 7:59 PM PST up reply actions
at this point with the way this line has been i'd go with the latter.
"What is it about good sex that makes me have to crap?"
I like Jahvid Best as a crazy longshot guy
Like Adrian Peterson he’s now got injury issues that could drop his stock a little.
Championship
by Anticitizen_One on Nov 12, 2009 2:13 PM PST reply actions
Depends on the QB and LT's available at our picks.
I’d take Spiller with our second first, if he’s there, and if the QB/LT’s available (whatever we don’t get with our first pick) aren’t that good, then I’d go with Spiller. If there are a quality QB and LT at our picks that we could take without reaching, then I’d love Dwyer in the second. I really love Dwyer.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Field Gulls
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Shutdown Corner - NFL - Yahoo! Sports
- The hidden play of Super Bowl XLVI: Justin Tuck’s third-quarter sack
- Report: Chad Ochocinco will become Chad Johnson once again
- Video: Bill Belichick implores his defense to make the Giants throw to Mario Manningham
- Training Day: Learning the 40 with an Olympian
- Terrell Owens is still clinging to the NFL dream
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
