Rebuilding - How to do it, a comparison
by gbutleriii on Nov 23, 2009 8:47 AM PST
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I put this together as a discussion point since everyone is in the rebuilding phase and are all in agreement that the offense is what needs to be rebuilt the most. I took two offenses I think we can agree we would like and compared them with ours currently to see how they were built. Its very easy to look at a GM and claim they are an idiot, stating how we all knew how to build a championship team ourselves. Building a team as a GM requires tireless scouting, faith in your lower scouts, good coaching (and hiring the coaches), drafting, trading, risk, bravado, and luck.
Looking at the other two teams (small sample set), I would say that due diligence has been done on the part of our front office to prepare, at least in comparison. What is showing a difference to a greater extent are the 2 things that affect NFL teams more than anything: luck and quarterback play. We can question now in hindsight, but every move had a reason and some risk involved in it, or each of the teams below. Unfortunately, like all businesses, if those risks do not turn out and it costs the company, you often lose your job, deserved or not.
Anyway, more food for thought.
| Saints | Patriots | Seahawks | ||||
| Name | Aquired | Name | Aquired | Name | Aquired | |
| WR1 | Colston | D 7th | Moss | Trade (4th) | Housh | FA - 1st Tier |
| WR2 | Henderson | D 2nd | Welker | Trade (2 & 7) | Burleson | FA - 2nd Tier |
| WR3 | Meecham | D 1st | Edelman | D 7th | Branch | T (1st) |
| RB1 | Thomas | FA - Undrafted | Maroney | D 1st | Jones | FA - 2nd Tier |
| RB2 | Bush | D 1st | Morris | FA - 2nd Tier | Forsett | D 7th |
| QB | Brees | FA - 1st Tier | Brady | D 6th | Hasselbeck | T (3rd and 1st drop back) |
| TE | Shockey | Trade (2 & 5) | Watson | D 1st | Carlson | D 2nd |
| LT | Bushrod | D 4th | Light | D 2nd | Locklear | D 2nd |
| LG | Nicks | D 5th | Mankins | D 1st | Sims | D 4th |
| C | Goodwin | FA - 2nd Tier | Koppen | D 5th | Spencer | D 1st |
| RG | Evans | D 4th | Neal | Undrafted | Unger | D 2nd |
| RT | Stinchcomb | D 2nd | Kaczur | D 3rd | Willis | D 4th |
| D = drafted | ||||||
| T = Trade (for what) | ||||||
| FA = Free Agent | ||||||
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This shows how badly we have done...
The common thread with NE and the Saints is lots of late round and undrafted players now contributing in major roles for them. For the Seahawks, the only very good player that we didn’t spend major resources on was Hasselbeck, and that has sort of come to an end. Unger, and Carlson are the only very valuable players going forward (you can always get a player like Nate Burleson in FA for what we are paying him) and although they are inexpensive, they costed us second round picks, fairly big investments.
Too many later picks and UDFA’s for us have turned into pickups like Coutu, Tyler Schmitt, Colbert, Owen Schmitt (where are you dude?), Courtney Taylor, ie nothing.. Or quality that we let get away: Michael Bennet (has recorded a sack in TB) and Courtney Greene
Hmmm...
Does this really show how badly we’ve done, or how two successful franchises struck lighting in a bottle.
Colston in the 7th and Neal undrafted come to mind as straight up lucky picks that worked out, and are key contributors…
Bird Law in this country isn't governed by reason.
by Tyler Jorgensen on Nov 23, 2009 10:36 PM PST up reply actions
I would add the Vikings, Packers, Colts, and maybe the Chargers to the comparison as well,
but the common theme with all the teams would be great QB.
I suppose an example of good QB bad team performance/offense would be Chicago. I can’t really think of any other off the top of my head.
Jay Cutler is not a good QB
I said it when Chicago made this trade, and I’ll say it again: Denver did not get taken on this deal, and Chicago gave up far too much for a non-franchise QB.
2009 Unofficial "The Phinsider" (Phinaddict's League) Fantasy Baseball League Champion
by Dave.Phuller on Nov 23, 2009 11:44 AM PST up reply actions
I think it was a lose-lose trade
Kind of reminds me of the Branch trade when the 2006 Patriots were derailed in the playoffs by horrible WR play.
Chicago upgraded QB but didn’t give him a good enough offensive line or WR to allow him to play at his full potential. Denver lost a QB who threw for 4500 yards and a ton of TD’s the year before. Kyle Orton was never going to be even close to that productive in Denver, and the two draft picks probably won’t make up that level of difference. As a rule, a smart team should not give away 4500 passing yard QB’s in their mid 20’s, not even for 2 firsts. Franchise QB’s are extremely rare and only about ~25% of 1st round QB’s ever reach the kind of season Cutler had in 2008.
As much as I hate to give the Steelers credit
They do a pretty damned good job of drafting.
It's Great to be a Florida Gator!
"I never met a llama I didn't like." - TJ Duckett
All I want for Christmas is Joe Haden, Eric Berry, and Nandamukong Suh in Seahawks blue.
Nice post
Pretty obvious trend here: The Seahawks have gotten less bang for their buck than other good teams. We kind of all knew it, but it’s even more striking when you look at it this way.
Locklear was drafted in the 3rd
pick number 84 overall.
by scratchandsniff on Nov 23, 2009 12:18 PM PST reply actions
Okay Saints follower chiming in...
Its very important to note how much luck the Saints have benefitted from.
Brees was a too short for the Chargers FA coming off a fairly major surgery. Could have easily gone wrong.
Colston was a surprise to everyone, the Saints didnt all smirk knowingly after the draft, he just turned magical over the summer. In short, a 7th round fluke.
Bush has grossly underachieved. Grossly.
Thomas was a crossed-fingers UDFA who did develop. Luck.
Meacham was a D1 who didnt even play, and was starting to look bust.
Henderson has some game but still drops balls.
I dont see a lot of Saints moves that show genius or a devious plan. Most of their moves have worked out, but more than anything, the coaching staff is maximizing what they have. ‘Bush cant play RB? Lets make a new position for him and adjust the playbook to compensate. QB is really really short? Well, what does he do well, lets let him do lots of it.’
I dont know the Pats as well, but looking at it I see a similar pattern. Brady is a fluke draft pick, no one thought he’d be that good. They’ve drafted OL well, and made some good trades, but mostly I see luck and coaching.
No one can convince me Holmgren made the most of his players, and again with Mora/Knapp, players are asked to fit a system. I felt uneasy hearing the Hawks had hired the guy who recently coordinated the horrible Raiders and 49ers. Ive seen little to convince me his master plan is a great one. Functional, sure, but nothing to make a dynasty out of.
You make some valid points, esp. regarding the Saints.
I’d be careful not to minimize what you said about the Patriots. ‘drafted OL well’ and ‘made some good trades’ are extremely important reasons why they’re good (in addition to the obvious: Brady pick). They bought low on both Welker and Moss and those two trades provide one of the most lethal WR duos in football. Drafting OL well is something that cannot be understated: where would we be if we did more of that? The Saints also drafted OL well. They have a near-all-pro line, including two starting-caliber LTs and a late-round dominant LG. One thing overlooked, is that the Pats scored on the Vollmer pick, too, who was considered a ‘project pick’ and already he’s more than holding his own as their starting LT. He was pick #58 overall (’09).
These are all things for our organization to aspire to.
Of course we have to remember
Ruskell would never have traded for Moss. Ever. No matter what his numbers. You know, the character thing.
Quantified (arbitrarily)
I weighted these guys like this:
Weights
1st round 10
2nd round 6
3-5th rounds 3
Late Rounds 1
FA – 1st 8
FA – 2nd 5
I think that theres a lot of room for discussion in those weights, for example:
- not all first round picks are equal (ie: reggie bush’s 2nd overall vs chris spencer going at the end of the round, etc)
- 1st and 2nd teir FA’s are an arbitrary distinction, and my weights of 8 and 5 are also. So thats arbitrary on top of arbitrary.
BUT when I weighted these players based on these values we end up with:
NO – 64
NE – 59
SEA – 64
My first instinct was that the Seahawks have dramatically undervalued the offense recently, but using the weights i created it seems like we probably haven’t.
Constructive criticism appreciated, thanks.
I honestly see it as somewhere between less luck and bad choices.
There is also a stretch of years where the picks tended towards lower in the round, but the Saints havent been all that different, except the Bush pick.
The problem facing Seahawks ownership is that you can fire a GM and get a new guy but that doesnt guarantee you’ll have more luck, nor does it guarantee your 7th round guess will turn into Colston instead of Kent.
I hate to say this, because I’ve previously liked the character-first leaning, but I think we need the best players we can get, not necessarily the guys who are nicest. NE and NO dont have the best character guys they could get, but the best guys they could get, all factors considered.
Nice guys finish last
Like you, I had bought into Ruskell’s character-first mantra. But the way the NFL “punished” Dockett’s obvious thuggishness with only a slap-on-the-wrist fine was a last straw for me.
Albert Haynesworth deliberately steps on a guy’s head, and he’s not only not banned from the league, he’s one of its highest-paid players. Turds like Vick and PacMan are reinstated. Etc etc.
Good morals obviously don’t matter in this league. Just win, baby! We got tickets to sell!
Ask the Bengals how their character issues helped them any.
Sam Bradford, future Seattle Seahawk.
by Carl Shinyama on Nov 23, 2009 10:20 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah, it's a shame we released Lofa after that DUI and didn't offer Leroy a contract extension after the drug charge.
This notion that character is the be-all and end-all with Tim Ruskell is overblown.
Depends on circumstance, sure...
But the Pats took a risk on a character case in Moss and it paid off like alchemy.
Ruskell does not draft or trade for character issue guys.
Two guys he knows well, he’s more likely to give a pass to.
Guess he should have drafted Odell Thurman instead of Lofa in the 2nd round in 05.
Maybe he’s more likely to give a pass in general now that the overall team atmosphere is more or less where he wants it.
If you recall, NE was “all about character” right up until the time they signed Randy Moss and Corey Dillon. Maybe Ruskell wants to primarily have a strong locker room personality and then consider picking up guys from “the other side.”
However, that doesn’t mean “those other guys” have been available or been the right fit at the right time, therefor it is still business as usual.
Bird Law in this country isn't governed by reason.
by Tyler Jorgensen on Nov 24, 2009 9:47 AM PST up reply actions
I had the impression that Tatupu was looked at as a better player
than Thurman, just undersized.
I’m not a Ruskell lover or hater, I just see luck and coaching as a greater deciding factor than its given credit for.
Moss and Dillon, unless I’ve forgetten something, were grousers on bad teams, it stands to reason both would flourish on a winning team.
I remember Kiper saying we should have gone with Odell,
and I’m pretty sure he wasn’t the only one, character concerns be damned.
I agree, though.. luck plays a much greater part than is given credit.
Bird Law in this country isn't governed by reason.
by Tyler Jorgensen on Nov 24, 2009 11:23 AM PST up reply actions
Kiper also said that Hasselbeck
was a waste of a (sixth round) pick by the Packers. He’s a bafoon, I don’t listen to anything he says.
It's Great to be a Florida Gator!
"I never met a llama I didn't like." - TJ Duckett
All I want for Christmas is Joe Haden, Eric Berry, and Nandamukong Suh in Seahawks blue.
by Wayward Llama on Nov 24, 2009 5:11 PM PST up reply actions
I don't either.
I’m just saying that due to the whole theory that Ruskell goes for character ahead of talent, and we should go the other route exclusively.
Those that want to ‘swing for the fences’ rarely want to acknowledge the brilliance of a single to opposite field that took what the pitcher was giving, and they also tend to forget all the strikeouts they missed out on instead.
Bird Law in this country isn't governed by reason.
by Tyler Jorgensen on Nov 24, 2009 5:23 PM PST up reply actions
Looking at his college stats, I'd agree with Kiper.
Give me 100 guys with his college stats and attributes and I’m not sure 10 of them don’t mirror David Greene’s career.
Greene had some very intriguing upside, though.
Like Rivers, but with Pennington’s arm and Eli’s accuracy.
by jacobstevens on Nov 25, 2009 9:56 AM PST up reply actions
Obviously there nits to pick, but as a brief overview I think your analysis is fine.
Perhaps for our next off topic we should have a ’Given that you are the GM of a new expansion team, what your draft strategy be, what picks for what rounds, what to emphasize in free agency, feelings on trading up, importance of coaches, etc.
absolutely
if i had more time, my thought would be to split each round into thirds (or weight each pick individually?) and find a way to value the FA pick ups based on the amount spent (so it is market determined, theoretically)
as a rough sketch, all this says is that these three teams spent about the same amount of resources on their offense.
interesting to note that the saints did not put a lot into their line, focusing instead on skill players who didn’t pan out (meechem, henderson, bush). they have had awesome success with colston (7th round) and Thomas (undrafted). It doesn’t sound like a repeatable process for success: 1st and 2nd round skill position underachievers, getting a pro bowl receiver in the 7th and having an UDFA replace your 2nd overall pick at RB, free agent QB playing behind a midround offensive line.
I love the results the Saints are taking, but if somebody said “We should follow the Saints Template” to build an offense I would question their sanity.
Nice to have the opinion...
…of a Saints fan. That’s kinda what I was getting at, that coaching and luck through scouting/performance have more to do with things than anything. Its not like the teams don’t have plans, its just hard for those plans to work. Looks at the Saints, they had plans with using first round picks to get their RB and WR, but who are their #1’s right now? A 7th rounder and an undrafted FA.
I don’t have every teams list on here, but I would venture that each has the same amount of 1st and 2nd round picks that do nothing. To succeed a team has to cash in on mid-range free agent signings, lower draft picks, and shrewd trades. And since you can’t get everything in the NFL with the cap, get units that complement each other. Or fit the scheme to your personnel (very hard for an NFL coach to do).
By this then, what is the advantage to high draft picks? In some ways its a disadvantage, because the investment is so high the team has to stick with players longer. So bad teams can get worse. That’s the scariest part of drafting a QB high. Not only do you waste a pick, but your obliged to waste time because you have so much sunk cost if the pick doesn’t work out. But if the QB is there and scouted high, how can you not?
Here’s hoping we have good luck on our side in the coming off seasons whoever is in the front office. Still fun to talk about all this though.=)
High draft picks
First round QB’s are pricey. No one disputes that. But I think the risk-reward ratio for them is still better for them than most other positions.
If you want something more than a journeyman QB, you’re going to have to pay the market price whether you get him through the draft or free agency.
Keep in mind that the truly elite QB’s almost never become available through free agency, and that the odds that your late-round draft pick will be the next Tom Brady are heavily stacked against you. The odds favor guys like Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy, or Jake Locker over guys like Mike Teel.
To me it still comes down to coaching and luck.
I dont have a lot of faith in our current coaching staff being able to create a pro bowler out of Mike Teel, nor do I have any faith that Ruskell can or will draft the right one.
I’d be reasonably happy to see Mora and company get a free agent guy they think fits their system AND draft a QB first round and sit him down. (look at Sanchez)
Sure, coaching and luck are factors
Nobody except the most naive fan or pundit thinks that a first-round QB is a sure thing.
But you can improve the odds in favor of success if you filter out some of the ballyhooed guys who have obvious shortcomings. For example, QB is one position where character matters. Not character in the moral sense, but in the sense of intelligence, competitiveness, poise, and leadership. If you ignore the red flags raised by guys like Leaf, Jeff George or Cutler, you decrease your chances of success.
I think staying away from option QB’s like Mirer or running QB’s like Tebow is also a good idea.
Applying just those two filters alone would have helped avoid some of the most well-known first-round busts.
Mirer was an option qb?!?
Are you confusing him with Tony Rice up in Domer-ville.
Bird Law in this country isn't governed by reason.
by Tyler Jorgensen on Nov 24, 2009 4:34 PM PST up reply actions
I just took a look on youtube.
I had forgotten he was as elusive as he really was…
Actually looks a bit like Tebow in some regards. Which scares me in many ways…
Bird Law in this country isn't governed by reason.
by Tyler Jorgensen on Nov 24, 2009 5:27 PM PST up reply actions
I did some followup research too
… and you’re right, Mirer wasn’t the running QB that Tony Rice was. He put up big number both in the air and on the ground. I found at least one Irish fan arguing that Mirer was the best QB in Irish history (he was careful to distinguish his college career from his pro career, as most of the Joe Montana fans were failing to do.) So maybe I was wrong to give him as an example of an option QB who failed in the NFL.
Whatever you want to call the offense that Mirer ran for Lou Holtz, I remember a lot of people saying it hadn’t really prepared him for the Raider-style offense the Seahawks were trying to run back then.
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