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Around SBN: Africa Cup Of Nations Semifinal: Black Stars Ripe For Upset?

You made the right choice. Now force your coaches to get some talented offensive linemen and fix the defense.

about 2 years ago Walshrun_tiny SSreporters 97 comments 0 recs  | 

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Looks like you beat me by a hair.

Interesting decision for Locker, even if it’s been sort of a foregone conclusion for a while. I applaud Jake for sticking around and finishing what he started, but wow this is a risky choice.

With a new CBA potentially on the horizon rookie salaries could get capped. One bad injury could derail his career. Other prospects emerging could catch the fancy of other GMs. There’s so much that could go wrong between now and the next chance Locker can be drafted.

Gun to my head, I think Locker should have declared. He had a really good chance to guarantee himself financial security for life and there’s just too much that could go wrong between now and then.

by BrianL on Dec 14, 2009 12:53 PM PST reply actions  

I think it was a good move.

He has the baseball contract if football fails. This is about more than hist rookie contract. This is about making it more probable for a longer career. Injury could strike but that’s a concern for anybody. Going back for one more year will not only potentially cement his legacy at UW but make it so there’s less chance of him being a bust in the NFL.

Also a die-hard Hawks fan.

by Hopefulmsfan on Dec 14, 2009 1:08 PM PST up reply actions  

To take it a half step farther

I think returning to Washington could turn Lockler from likely bust to franchise quarterback. He has made huge strides this year.

Regarding money: Locker sought the opinion of the NFL Draft Advisory Committee before making this decision. It might be more financially motivated than we assume. Mock drafts love Locker, but I think he would have fallen into the late first.

by John Morgan on Dec 14, 2009 1:13 PM PST up reply actions  

Agree ... the early mocks are dumb

Why would any sane GM draft him ahead of the many solidly accomplished QBs coming out this year? (Bradford, Clausen, McCoy, Tebow, etc).

Next year, if the Huskies move in the right direction regarding offensive players and defense, could be Locker’s huge year.

The demise of the Broncos in '09 is our future. Pray hard.

by Nick Andron on Dec 14, 2009 2:33 PM PST up reply actions  

They would draft him because they love potential.

They’d be willing to overlook his (relatively) weaker stats and accomplishments because he’s a junior, had only one year in a pro-style offense, and is one of the more athletically gifted QBs to come out in a few years. He’d better be sure that his performance will get a lot better next year, when GMs won’t be so quick to look past his production.

by SeaTownBlueDevil on Dec 14, 2009 2:51 PM PST up reply actions  

Cool, then let's just throw all college experience and stats to the wind

and draft solely on potential !!!

Sarcasm aside, all you’ve really got is the player’s PAST performance with which to evaluate his long term potential.

It might not translate perfectly to NFL success, but it’s probably a better indicator than anything else.

Just my opinion.

The demise of the Broncos in '09 is our future. Pray hard.

by Nick Andron on Dec 14, 2009 4:00 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm not disagreeing.

But there’s a reason Brian Brohm went from a Top 5 pick to the bottom of the second round when he stayed for his senior year and didn’t show much progress.

by SeaTownBlueDevil on Dec 14, 2009 4:59 PM PST up reply actions  

Solid college accomplishments don't directly translate over to success in the NFL.

Take a look at this list of “accomplished” NCAA QB’s.

Bird Law in this country isn't governed by reason.

by Tyler Jorgensen on Dec 14, 2009 3:37 PM PST up reply actions  

Poor Timmy Chang. (Just one of the entries I read)

I can only imagine how terrible it must feel to be so unbelievably good throughout high school and college, have such high hopes for a pro career,and fail miserably. Failed in the NFL, NFL Europe, and even the CFL.

It's Great to be a Florida Gator!

"I never met a llama I didn't like." - TJ Duckett

All I want for Christmas is Joe Haden, Eric Berry, and Nandamukong Suh in Seahawks blue.

by Wayward Llama on Dec 14, 2009 4:01 PM PST up reply actions  

College accomplishments do not translate directly into the NFL

but I can’t think of a single quarterback that succeeded in the NFL after being bad in college. Good prospects are talented, unlike Chang, and accomplished, unlike Locker.

by John Morgan on Dec 14, 2009 4:46 PM PST up reply actions  

I don't disagree with the sentiment.

I would disagree that Locker is not accomplished. His numbers this year were certainly tolerable albeit pale in comparison to McCoy or Bradford. But Locker was not “bad” this year.

And staying in school was the best decision he could make to further harness that talent and turn it into more accomplishment.

Bird Law in this country isn't governed by reason.

by Tyler Jorgensen on Dec 14, 2009 4:51 PM PST up reply actions  

I honestly think you judge Locker too harshly.

Comparison…

230-395 (58.2%) 2800 yards, 21/11 TD/Int, 388 rushing yards, 7 TD.
273-462 (59.1%) 3,073 yards, 21/9 TD/Int, 215 rushing yards, 1 TD.

That is Locker beside Jay Cutler’s SEC offensive player of the year numbers his senior year. He of course went 11th overall in the draft and had enjoyed until this year a solid NFL career.

Cutler’s career NFL numbers—
973-1,558 62.5% 11,377 68/54

Bird Law in this country isn't governed by reason.

by Tyler Jorgensen on Dec 14, 2009 5:13 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

Good counterargument

I agree. I am too hard on Locker.

by John Morgan on Dec 14, 2009 9:01 PM PST up reply actions  

Whatever happened to Graham Harrell, anyway?

Is that the light at the end of the tunnel, or the headlights of an oncoming train?

by Benne on Dec 14, 2009 6:33 PM PST up reply actions  

Wiki...

Following his senior season at Texas Tech, Harrell entered the 2009 NFL Draft but went unselected. He participated with the Cleveland Browns in their rookie camp the first weekend in May 2009 but was not signed. UFL Access reported that Harrell will be working out in front of United Football League representatives in Las Vegas.

On July 20, 2009, Harrell signed a two-year plus an option contract with the Saskatchewan Roughriders of the Canadian Football League.

Bird Law in this country isn't governed by reason.

by Tyler Jorgensen on Dec 14, 2009 9:44 PM PST up reply actions  

FYI Jake Locker made his decision before the NFL Draft Advisory Committee got back to him

Per Seattle Times:

Still, Locker had said following the season finale against Cal on Dec. 5 that he would consider all options, and a week ago Monday he applied to be evaluated by the NFL Advisory Committee, which supplies underclassmen with an estimate of where they will be drafted.

But he decided not to wait for that input — the committee hasn’t even begun to return evaluations — before making his choice to stay.

Very interesting.

by kearly on Dec 14, 2009 6:51 PM PST up reply actions  

Unlike most guys, I think he had a good idea already...

Strong first round, upper half, potential to drop to back half or get into top 5 depending on combine.

I think, bottom line, he wanted to stay in school and finish his Husky career…

Bird Law in this country isn't governed by reason.

by Tyler Jorgensen on Dec 14, 2009 9:46 PM PST up reply actions  

Thank God.

I really want to see him succeed in the NFL and his chance of doing that will have no doubt improved in large part due to this decision.

This.

by Misfit74 on Dec 14, 2009 1:16 PM PST reply actions  

Also from what I heard from people close to him.

He doesn’t care about the money so much. He has money from the Angels.

by Scruffy Lefty on Dec 14, 2009 1:19 PM PST up reply actions  

I heard on 710

that he only got a couple hundred grand. I hope his stay in college is worth it, and he stays healthy.

It's Great to be a Florida Gator!

"I never met a llama I didn't like." - TJ Duckett

All I want for Christmas is Joe Haden, Eric Berry, and Nandamukong Suh in Seahawks blue.

by Wayward Llama on Dec 14, 2009 4:06 PM PST up reply actions  

I don't think so.

The 2011 draft is after his true sophomore season.

by redwolf75 on Dec 14, 2009 2:38 PM PST up reply actions  

Think you're right actually

The two years removed from high school, three years of college experience standard always struck me as contradictory.

by John Morgan on Dec 14, 2009 2:42 PM PST up reply actions  

Yo SS, head over to the Dawgpound and get the latest skinny...

They HAVE gotten some great OLine recruits.

This is a top 10 recruiting class at OLine and there are a couple more possible 4 star guys close to signing with us.

UW football is BACK, and this just sealed the deal!!!!

Locker for Heisman, 2010!!!

Bird Law in this country isn't governed by reason.

by Tyler Jorgensen on Dec 14, 2009 1:21 PM PST reply actions  

Locker for Heisman 2010?

I like the sound of that.

Without Tebow around anymore, he should get more attention as one of the best all-purpose QBs in the game. I really hope his passing improves and he leads the UW program back to respectability. I miss the UW-powerhouse days…

This.

by Misfit74 on Dec 14, 2009 1:22 PM PST up reply actions  

One guy I think is ready to play right away-- he's the 4 star signing,

and another isn’t yet committed but he might be an instant starter if he does sign with us. Hawaiian Somoan-type name, can’t remember it.

Bird Law in this country isn't governed by reason.

by Tyler Jorgensen on Dec 14, 2009 3:39 PM PST up reply actions  

Whoever comes after Locker is going to be set up really nicely

Are these guys that might start away actually good or just better than whats already there?

by Nate Dogg on Dec 14, 2009 3:42 PM PST up reply actions  

Those two I'm referring to are 4 star recruits...

that’s GOOD. Most our class (ranked anywhere from 7th to 16th in the country by the “expert” sites) is composed of 3 star guys.

What you frequently see in college recruiting is the traditional elite teams (USC, Texas, Florida, Alabama, etc.) grab around a few 5 star guys, a dozen 4 star and fill in with a few 3 star guys.

A team like UW or Oklahoma State will pump themselves into the top 10-20 by getting like 25 guys with like ten 4 star and fifteen 3 star guys. In other words, they may not get the overall talent, but they get a particularly deep class.

Look at USC this year vs. UW at that link above.
We have 26 total with 2 in the top 100; with zero 5star, eight 4star and sixteen 3star players, they assign points and average rank.
USC has only 14 recruits (6 in top 100), however they have FOUR! 5star, seven 4star and two 3star.

Our class is rated higher, but there’s is more talented. But then, we needed to get depth and let things sort out, and USC can afford to “pick and choose” as they had a large class last year and are a young team already loaded with talent that isn’t going to lose a lot.

Bird Law in this country isn't governed by reason.

by Tyler Jorgensen on Dec 14, 2009 3:53 PM PST up reply actions  

They are more likely to do so when the team they are going has a bunch of 1 year starters

who were 2 and 3 star guys, and just not that talented. There are two guys that have a chance to start as true freshman on the OLine. Will they? Maybe, maybe not. But they are going to help the overall talent of the program even if not in their first year.

Bird Law in this country isn't governed by reason.

by Tyler Jorgensen on Dec 14, 2009 4:47 PM PST up reply actions  

I don't know about that...

Ben Riva is the 49th OT in the country, Micah Hatchie is the 25th, and Erik Kohler is the 14th (OT).

Colin Porter is the 7th rated guard.

I’m not saying they can all play right away, but 4 star kids make up the backbone of programs like USC, Texas and Alabama. There are only 50 5 star kids by all positions in the country. Many 4 star kids are ready to play right away, but they go to loaded programs where they are forced to sit a year.

Desmond Trufant was a 3 star kid who started right out the gate at CB and did an okay job overall and was a Pac10 caliber player even as a frosh. He was 70th ranked at CB in his class. These guys are more highly graded, good chance a couple might be able to play right away and do so effectively if they get in during the spring, hit the weights hard, and adapt to the college game quickly.

Ideally in a year or two, our 4 star guys will be sitting behind other 4 star guys. That’s the difference between the USC, Texas, Oklahoma, Florida and Alabama’s of the world and the UW’s and Oklahoma State’s. It isn’t the top end talent, it’s the top to bottom depth.

Bird Law in this country isn't governed by reason.

by Tyler Jorgensen on Dec 14, 2009 10:09 PM PST up reply actions  

Purple and Gold baby!

Sam Bradford, future Seattle Seahawk.

by Carl Shinyama on Dec 14, 2009 6:38 PM PST up reply actions  

Late first?

Today, McShay made him No. 1, going to the Rams. That would have been a long, long way to fall. Especially since he would have been off the charts on the measurables they would have gotten off him in the meantime.

IN any event, I truly look forward to watching him grow in purple and gold one more year.

by Hawkdawg on Dec 14, 2009 1:45 PM PST reply actions  

I think you're responding to me

McShay can say whatever he wants. It has no impact on the actual draft.

by John Morgan on Dec 14, 2009 1:50 PM PST up reply actions  

McShay

What a weird job he and Kiper have at ESPN. Sit around making hundreds of mock drafts each year and arguing with each other. I’d like it because it’d be easy and you can pretty much say what you please as long as you sound authoritative but I don’t think I would respect myself.

by Gihyou on Dec 14, 2009 1:57 PM PST up reply actions  

A forgiving job for sure

as I was explaining to my wife yesterday, it doesn’t take a genius to rank first round talents. For some reason, the NFL draft is cast as an arcane process that few understand and fewer still can succeed at. Any sighted human being could see Calvin Johnson was special. There’s a dearth of tall, fast, athletic and huge human beings.

by John Morgan on Dec 14, 2009 2:05 PM PST up reply actions  

And so much of it relies not just on correct valuation of players

Like you say, you can be confident in knowing what separates first rounders from non-first rounders. But they always want to project the exact spot each player will go. What Todd McShay thinks is valuable is not what the Bengals’ GM does. Or the Seahawks’. Etc. Then you have to realize that even if you created a 100% rational draft that makes perfect sense for every team (this is a hypothetical example, of course this is impossible), you could still be horribly wrong because not every team will make the perfectly rational decision.

Forget those people who try to prognosticate beyond the first round. I’ve seen seven round mock drafts. That seems like such an incredible waste of time.

by Gihyou on Dec 14, 2009 2:11 PM PST up reply actions  

If it were a rational endeavor, intended to actually project seven rounds

it would be a waste of time. Mock drafts are discussion pieces and successful ones. I don’t think McShay or Kiper think they will nail every pick. I was reading something from Ricky Reilly, circa 2007, and he said McShay got something like seven out of 32 picks right, and that was with his mock posted directly before the draft. But for whatever reason, it doesn’t discredit McShay. He is a draft expert, and even if he’s as wrong as everyone else, people want to know what he thinks.

by John Morgan on Dec 14, 2009 2:23 PM PST up reply actions  

He exists because there is a market

People love mock drafts. I don’t, really, but maybe I want them to be something more than they possibly can be.

by Gihyou on Dec 14, 2009 2:30 PM PST up reply actions  

People love mock drafts in the same way they love pre-election opinion polls

They’re impatient for the real thing, so they run the simulations over and over again.

Given the armchair GM nature of football fandom, this is entirely understandable. It really gets hilarious when the pundits and fans presume to grade the actual draft based on how well it accords with the supposedly more rational simulations.

by Mr Fish on Dec 14, 2009 3:16 PM PST up reply actions  

Here we go:
4:20
A merciful God ends the first round. For three weeks everybody but Vladimir Putin was doing a mock draft. So who was right? Well, Todd McShay of Scouts, Inc., had five of the first six right but cooled off fast and wound up with nine out of 32 dead-on. SI’s Peter King was unusually off, with three. NFL.com’s Vic Carucci had four. The winner in my survey of draft pundits? Kiper, with 10. My point? Mock drafts are a bigger waste than Jos� Feliciano’s HDTV.

From here.

by John Morgan on Dec 14, 2009 2:31 PM PST up reply actions  

And thats with the first 10 usually being gimmes

I can normally get about 4 of the top 10 the day before the draft.

by Nate Dogg on Dec 14, 2009 3:11 PM PST up reply actions  

Ewww....

you quoted Rick Reilly.

Heheh.

Bird Law in this country isn't governed by reason.

by Tyler Jorgensen on Dec 14, 2009 3:40 PM PST up reply actions  

The draft is a sequence, and the farther you get down the sequence, the more difficult predictions become

As random variables accumulate, even the most intelligent projections will come off the tracks.

For example, the weather. A meteorologist can almost perfectly predict tomorrow’s weather. But the farther away a projection, the more inaccurate it becomes. Rain scheduled for 5 days down the road often arrives two days early or not at all. After about 5 days, weather forecasts become so inaccurate that they are almost worthless. This is why we don’t see 2 week forecasts, month long forecasts, etc.

The draft is the same thing. The first 10 picks are so are fairly easy to pick, but once those “surprise picks” start adding up, it throws an entire projection off its tracks. McShay/Kiper may not have gotten every pick right, but I would guess 75% of their picks were within 5 spots of where the player actually went. Its not a precise science.

by kearly on Dec 14, 2009 6:58 PM PST up reply actions  

McShay/Kiper may not dictate where a player is drafted

but they are kind of like weather men for the draft. They may not exactly nail every pick, because at a certain point luck replaces expertise for determining exact hits on picks. What’s more important is being close, and they are generally pretty close. The only real disadvantage a mock draft has is that it can’t anticipate trades.

Right now, a Mock draft is probably a waste of time. Just like how accuracy decreases with increased distance from the first pick, accuracy also decreases when the distance from draft day is increased. A mock made they day before will probably nail 8 of the first 10 picks. A mock made a year in advance (like this one), is a laughable joke. With the draft still 6 months away, I’m sure Locker took his stock with a grain of salt, although with the lack of viable franchise QB prospects and Locker’s likely explosion at the combine, I doubt he would have slid very far.

by kearly on Dec 14, 2009 11:00 PM PST up reply actions  

Don't forget, McShay and Kiper both have PhD's

in “being full of shit.”

It's Great to be a Florida Gator!

"I never met a llama I didn't like." - TJ Duckett

All I want for Christmas is Joe Haden, Eric Berry, and Nandamukong Suh in Seahawks blue.

by Wayward Llama on Dec 14, 2009 4:04 PM PST up reply actions  

Cliff Lee to the Mariners?

Seattle sports can show itself again!

Well, except…you know….the Seahawks.

ME! BANE!

by SSreporters on Dec 14, 2009 2:02 PM PST reply actions  

This will take a while to sort out.

Halladay has to negotiate an extension, a bunch of physicals. It may not be official until the end of the week.

by BigWalt on Dec 14, 2009 2:54 PM PST up reply actions  

I think you just put your finger on the reason he decided to stay in school

He saw those mocks having him go to the Rams, and he decided it wasn’t worth it.

Better to play another year in college, and maybe even be a little less exciting. Heck, maybe Bradford has shown the way, by getting hurt and causing injury concerns to lower his draft stock. Rather than go to a crappy team at the top of the draft, go to a good team in the middle or bottom of the round…

Nah, that’s just crazy talk. Isn’t it?

by Mr Fish on Dec 14, 2009 3:24 PM PST up reply actions  

God no.

Sam Bradford, future Seattle Seahawk.

by Carl Shinyama on Dec 14, 2009 6:49 PM PST up reply actions  

I can't express how happy this news makes me

If Jake HAD declared and ended up being drafted by Seattle, even that would not have been as exciting for me. Not only do I get another exciting season of football to watch from him, but there will be the storyline all season long about his chase for the #1 overall pick.

by kearly on Dec 14, 2009 4:53 PM PST reply actions  

Yes.

But he is a senior this year, and a year of redshirt will do him wonders…

Bird Law in this country isn't governed by reason.

by Tyler Jorgensen on Dec 15, 2009 1:20 PM PST up reply actions  

Ahh, I see.

I’m a Beavs fan, so I wan unsure of where he was at.

by DJ C-Raig on Dec 15, 2009 2:21 PM PST up reply actions  

Fuck.

I’m still mad about BYU getting Jake Heaps.

Heaps>>>>>>>>>>>Nick Montana.

by redwolf75 on Dec 17, 2009 8:43 AM PST up reply actions  

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