Debating a Seahawks "Safe" List.

by iverson2169 on Dec 23, 2009 2:27 PM PST

Coming off a season that will more than likely end 5-11, the notion of "safety" feels rather arbitrary; however, a changing GM, possibility of a new coach, and various contract situations, make certain scenarios more probable than others.

Here is a laymen's attempt at projecting the relative probabilities of certain starters wearing Seahawk blue next year.

The "Locks" (Will not go anywhere...too young, too much potential)

Lofa Tatupu (Mr. Seahawk)

Aaron Curry (Too young and talented to go anywhere)

Brandon Mebane (ME might be as untouchable as Lofa... could be dominant soon)

John Carlson (young, talented, cheap'ish)

TJ Houshmanzadeh (contract prohibitive to get rid of, still very talented)

Unger (young, talented, cheap)

Safe Bets (solid contributors with favorable contract numbers)

Tapp (best DE pass rusher)

Hill (considering Lofa's injury, probably the most consistent LB this year)

Hawthorne (lots of potential, but could be a trade piece at some point)

Wilson (only playmaker in the secondary, versatile)

Babineaux (quietly a solid year)

Trufant (down year after injury, but Tru isn't going anywhere).

Lo-Jackson (strong and versatile, needs another piece on the DL to "breakout")

Locklear

Sims (solid contributor)

Forsett (biggest ground threat at this point)

Spencer (versatile, young).

On the Fence (free agency and/or draft could determine their futures)

Redding (wasn't good or bad this year... take him or leave him depending on price)

Jennings (lack of quality DB options keeps Jennings from the list below)

Grant (probably should be in the list above, but I just cnt see any DB's as "safe" other than Wilson)

J. Jones (probably won't be back)

Hasselbeck (draft and or free agency will determine fate)

Burelson (not the same guy anymore)

Cole (contract prohibitive to cut.... but would love to be able to eat this contract)

Pack Your Bags (Just too much money to save here).

Kerney (way too much money for massive gaps in productivity)

Walter Jones (I hope I'm wrong, but he's finished a HOF career)

Branch (contract prohibitive to keep).

I have double checked my categorization and feel it's probably representative of most people's opinions, but I'd like to hear where there may be discrepancies.

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Comments

Only a few differences of opinion, and nothing major.

I think Forsett is safe. He’s a fan favorite, productive, and cheap.
Tapp I think could be gone. You never know if other teams value him. Sometimes I think he’s going to be real good, sometimes I think he just needs to get out of Seattle and get a fresh start with coaches who know what they’re doing. Maybe he’d be better in a 3-4? Him and Reed have really impressed me when they have had to drop back in coverage, but then again it could just be because my relative expectations are so low.

I’m not sure if I’d put TJ as safe. I could see him traded. His numbers aren’t horrible despite our offense being bad, and his contract isn’t unreasonable either.

Spencer is a big question mark. It’s tough to say who’s job is safe when there will probably be both a new GM and a new head coach. Spencer may just want a new start as well since he’s probably tired of people blaming him for everything.

by LantermanC on Dec 23, 2009 2:32 PM PST reply actions

Spencer is probably gone.

by BrianL on Dec 23, 2009 2:32 PM PST reply actions

Agree

I also believe, like Lantern, that Housh could be traded. I bet teams like Miami, Baltimore and Chicago would probably nearly kill themselves to get a receiver of his caliber. Especially Chicago. Cutler desperately needs a tall receiver.

Also – if Housh goes, Burly will be retained (and vice versa). I just can’t see the org not retaining one; that’d leave us far too thin at receiving options (Butler is unproven and green, Branch will be cut, Taylor/Obamanu just aren’t that good).

Also, I’d put Hill on the fence. We’ve got too much money tied up in our linebackers and I think one is traded or cut (most likely traded) in the offseason. It won’t be Curry; Lofa is a leader and a fan favorite. That leaves Hill the odd man out.

The demise of the Broncos in '09 is our future. Pray hard.

by Nick Andron on Dec 23, 2009 2:45 PM PST up reply actions

Do you think it's based on reality or perception...

Also, do you think a new GM/possible coach would change this?

Bring Your Game, Leave Your Name.

by iverson2169 on Dec 23, 2009 4:22 PM PST up reply actions

Also, where does Spencers' contract sit now?

Bring Your Game, Leave Your Name.

by iverson2169 on Dec 23, 2009 4:24 PM PST up reply actions

According to rotoworld

he’s earning $850,000 this season.

It doesn’t state if that’s base salary or if it includes incentives/playtime/anything like that.

by Trepidation on Dec 23, 2009 9:23 PM PST up reply actions

If Spencer isn't going to be given the chance to play center in Seattle he probably leaves by his own choice.

by BrianL on Dec 23, 2009 4:46 PM PST up reply actions

Good Point...

I take it this is a contract year for him then?

Bring Your Game, Leave Your Name.

by iverson2169 on Dec 23, 2009 4:54 PM PST up reply actions

Yep. FA after this season.

The demise of the Broncos in '09 is our future. Pray hard.

by Nick Andron on Dec 23, 2009 9:16 PM PST up reply actions

The new rules in the uncapped year could make him a RFA, I believe.

Sam Bradford, future Seattle Seahawk.

by Carl Shinyama on Dec 23, 2009 9:17 PM PST up reply actions

Ah, good catch.

The demise of the Broncos in '09 is our future. Pray hard.

by Nick Andron on Dec 23, 2009 9:19 PM PST up reply actions

Lofa is hardly a lock at this point.

Injuries, Hawthorne basically filling in for him smoothly…

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Dec 23, 2009 2:51 PM PST reply actions

I'd like to see what value we could get for Hill.

Move Hawthorne to the weak side.

by SPENCEMAN on Dec 23, 2009 2:52 PM PST up reply actions

I agree with this.

Moving Hawthorne over to WLB and letting him play “downhill” may hide some of his weaknesses, too. But it’d be a good way to get rid of hill’s contract.

"I'm tired of chasing after my dreams. I'll just find out where they're going, and catch up later." - Hedberg

by jteckmann on Dec 24, 2009 10:12 AM PST up reply actions

Hawtorne really hasn't been as good as everyone's been led to believe.

by BrianL on Dec 23, 2009 3:11 PM PST up reply actions

I agree here Brian...

He’s been both spectacular and lousy… there hasn’t been the consistency that many believe there is.

Bring Your Game, Leave Your Name.

by iverson2169 on Dec 23, 2009 4:16 PM PST up reply actions

Yep. He's very flashy.

But he blows a lot of plays. And it’s not to recognize when a LB blows a play.

The demise of the Broncos in '09 is our future. Pray hard.

by Nick Andron on Dec 23, 2009 9:17 PM PST up reply actions

Lofa's contract make him a pretty sure "lock" I would think.

Bring Your Game, Leave Your Name.

by iverson2169 on Dec 23, 2009 4:15 PM PST up reply actions

Lofa adds those intangibles and smarts that Hawthorne doesn't give the defense.

As much as I like Hawthorne, I think it would be in the best interest for us to try to deal him for a pick.

by nut_house on Dec 23, 2009 4:44 PM PST up reply actions

Lofa's not going anywhere.

And Hawthorne is in the last year of his contract. He’ll be a starter somewhere else next year.

It's Great to be a Florida Gator!

"I never met a llama I didn't like." - TJ Duckett

All I want for Christmas is Joe Haden, Eric Berry, and Nandamukong Suh in Seahawks blue.

by Wayward Llama on Dec 23, 2009 5:41 PM PST up reply actions

The next Koutouvides.

by MontanaHawk05 on Dec 24, 2009 10:42 PM PST up reply actions

Don't think Tapp, Hawthorne, Sims or Spencer are safe bets

and possibly not Locklear, either. Although I don’t think they’ll cut him or move him. I just mean, good chance he plays RT or RG next year.

Forsett is probably more of a lock.

I think the rest looks right. And well done.

by jacobstevens on Dec 23, 2009 2:54 PM PST reply actions

I hate to say it

because I think he’s going to be good the next couple years, but I also think Spencer is probably gone. Hawthorne and Hill I think are pretty iffy. I’m hoping one of them gets dealt for draft picks.

by Fear on Dec 23, 2009 3:08 PM PST reply actions

I'd like to see Hawthorne stick around

He’s good depth, cheap, and probably isn’t all that valuable in the trade market.

by Nate Dogg on Dec 23, 2009 5:09 PM PST up reply actions

If he stays cheap, sure

but a lot of teams see flashy plays and decide to roll the dice.

by Fear on Dec 23, 2009 11:04 PM PST up reply actions

Julius Jones

I think he stays, or at least has a better chance than you think. He’s not terrible, he’s quite inexpensive because they front-loaded his contract, and the team has a few other needs that need addressing right away that running back isn’t as important with he and Forsett around.

I don’t like the odds of both Spencer and Mora being around next year. One or the other, probably, and in this scenario I definitely choose Spencer.

by Gihyou on Dec 23, 2009 11:25 PM PST reply actions

I've been defending JJ since he arrived in Seattle...

…but this team needs more than just “not bad” at this point. JJ hasn’t prospered in the ZBS like we were hoping for (though it’s hardly been seamless), and has shown questionable decision-making. Since Forsett is probably a bust as an every-down back, the team could look for a more dynamic, threatening RB in the draft like Spiller.

by MontanaHawk05 on Dec 24, 2009 10:47 PM PST up reply actions

I don't know how Forsett is a bust, unless it's opposite day

by DetectiveM on Dec 25, 2009 10:51 PM PST up reply actions

Probably poor wording on his part

I think he just means, he probably wouldn’t be as effective as an every-down back. And I agree with him.

by jacobstevens on Dec 28, 2009 9:44 AM PST up reply actions

Is it possible for a 7th round pick to be a bust?

Bring Your Game, Leave Your Name.

by iverson2169 on Dec 27, 2009 2:56 PM PST up reply actions

One bright spot in a dark, painfull year.

Emerald City Funk Machine

by blackvanilla on Dec 27, 2009 3:49 PM PST up reply actions

I'm not sure that Forsett cant be an every down feature back in this league

The only argument I ever hear is that he is too small, but backs like MJD and Chris Johnson are also small and they are proving size isnt everything. Forsett’s senior college stats: 1,546 yards on 305 carries, and 15 touchdowns with 22 receptions for another 202 yards. Nothing in his professional career has shown me he cant carry the load either. Now in today’s game, I think every teams has to have at least 2 highly capable backs, but i dont think we should dismiss Forsett as a feature back so easily.

by zscratch on Dec 27, 2009 6:27 PM PST up reply actions

Since I don't think we can solve O-line problems only through the draft

free-agency will probably have a bigger impact on Sims and Spencer’s future. Spencer may simply want to go anyplace else (I would) so I doubt he’s back, unless he’s an RFA and the new GM wants to keep him. I don’t think he’ll grade out very highly or be a highly sought after FA, but there will be a market for his services. Locklear won’t be tradeable with his contract, so it’s either keep him or cut him. I’d much rather see him back at RT.

I also think Forsett is a lock, and Burleson is a safe bet, With Branch gone, I doubt they’ll be willing to let Burly go as well. We’re only one season removed from WR meltdown. Hawthorne could be traded for a draft pick, and agree that Kerney, Jones and Branch are done.

by diehard82 on Dec 24, 2009 10:02 AM PST reply actions

Personally, I'd put Cole in the "pack your bags" list

I believe his contract is structured in such a way that we’d actually free up about $1M if he’s cut.

"I'm tired of chasing after my dreams. I'll just find out where they're going, and catch up later." - Hedberg

by jteckmann on Dec 24, 2009 10:14 AM PST reply actions

$6 million guaranteed

So I think he’s safe. That’s alright though, he’ll make a ok backup nose tackle.

by John Morgan on Dec 24, 2009 2:29 PM PST up reply actions

That could mean the departure of big Red though

by SPENCEMAN on Dec 24, 2009 3:54 PM PST up reply actions

I would have had him in the pack your bags category....

….if he didn’t have the guaranteed money.

Bring Your Game, Leave Your Name.

by iverson2169 on Dec 24, 2009 10:47 PM PST up reply actions

Hell, I'll pay his guaranteed money if we cut him!

by rex92 on Dec 27, 2009 5:07 PM PST up reply actions

What makes you say Tapp "solid contributors with favorable contract numbers"

FA pass-rushing end. I can’t see how he’ll have favorable contract numbers even is he is a solid contributor. Those kinds of players get paid oftentimes.

This.

by Misfit74 on Dec 26, 2009 7:29 PM PST reply actions