However, I think Campbell’s upside is greater than you’re giving him credit for. It’s greater than I was giving him credit for until I looked at a few numbers.

Elsewhere in this thread you brought up a disheartening stat: Campbell’s TD/INT+Fumble = 15/15. (It’s now 18/22, but seven of those fumbles weren’t lost.) However, Kolb = 5/5 and Matt = 14/17. Further, while Kolb’s two big days give him an average completion distance of 7.7 yards, Campbell’s average (larger sample size with worse receivers) is 7.4 (Matt = 6.4). Campbell’s completion percentage is 65.3% to Kolb’s 64.6% (Matt = 61.9%). Perhaps the most intriguing statistic is that Campbell’s completion percentage has steadily and significantly increased each year (53.1, 60.0, 62.3 and this season’s 65.3).

I haven’t watched either one closely enough to say with any confidence that they could be elite QBs, but the numbers don’t seem to preclude the possibility for Campbell.

TWO GAMES. You are using that as a significant part of your argument. TWO GAMES.

You need to take a broader look, you get so caught up on the little things in the discussion that you miss the bigger picture. The bar has never been moved, I’ve always looked at it from a distance.

You compared Locker to Mirer in a “throwaway” comment.

I showed where that was a gross overstatement. You then took that to mean I was saying he IS the next Steve Young.

Steve Young IS the top end potential for him. You will see and hear that comparison from people other than me. I even stated the probability is he falls between the two ranges. Kolb’s top end potential is more like a slightly better Hasselbeck. That isn’t a bad thing, it just isn’t the same range.

Let’s cover a couple things here for your understanding. You aren’t going to convince me based primarily on two games we should overpay for Kolb. Let me reiterate— you aren’t going to convince me that we should overpay for Kolb.

If anything, you made your strongest points on Kolb NOT when you put 2 games out there, or his collegiate numbers. Your best argument for him is that he has learned Philly’s offense under Reid and is their heir apparent and they are quite happy with that fact.

The problem with your argument there are multiple. First to assume he would be as effective in our version is just that— an assumption. I would even agree with you that he should be superior to Locker NEXT year. That’s to be expected— he’ll be in his 4th year in the league. But he could very well be mediocre anyway. Third, because of that comfort level the Eagles have with him, he would be incredibly costly to get away from them (if it is even possible.)

So in conclusion…

1) Yes, I like Locker more.

2) His college stats are decent and improving, and he’s done so in a very good conference. This year, his best as a collegian, it was the best conference in the country, and it really isn’t debatable. (And living in Denver I’ve seen fewer Pac10 games than any other conference, but the ones I’ve seen leave me absolutely convinced of this fact.)

3) I haven’t said Kolb is bad, only that his numbers were “earned” in a weaker conference and an offense that tends to further inflate statistics. And I’m unwilling to trust in some Conference USA stats as the future for our team, 2 relatively effective NFL games as a starter or not.

4) Kolb may not even be available at any cost, regardless of his WCO knowledge that could lend itself to him coming in somewhat more ready. This makes your argument more hypothetical than legitimate anyway.

5) The raw risk/reward potential in Locker is FAR greater than Kolb. How you don’t think so is beyond me, and how you can say you have more supporting evidence toward Kolb having greater potential is, frankly, asinine.

Oh, one more note. Too often in our discussions you throw a random final NEW point out at the end of your argument in your conclusion, but you don’t back it up or it is just a logically unsupported statement anyway. You did that here with your draft board comment.

Yes, Locker has been listed back and forth between 1st QB and as low as 4th. It is also a DEEP QB class stocked with upper tier talent and several underclassmen (including Jake) either declaring or debating doing so.

Kolb was NEVER looked at as potentially the top QB in his class and his class was far far weaker. Jamarcus, Brady Quinn, John Beck and Kolb were it for the 2nd round, and most analysts said both Kolb and Beck went higher than expected.

Trent Edwards LATE in the 3rd was the next QB.
Isaiah Stanback was next in the 4th, and he was chosen as a WR!
The next QB taken, with the LAST PICK of the 5th round was Troy Smith.

That’s TERRIBLE. Using a comparison of classes, there are 10 guys this year that are better pro prospects than that, and several of them are high first round prospects. Some years that happens, some years it doesn’t. You can’t simply compare ranking by his class without taking the class in context.