A Brief Statistical Encounter with Mark Sanchez and Matthew Stafford

by John Morgan on Feb 15, 2009 3:58 PM PST

Opponent adjustment is perhaps the hardest part of scouting, but it's essential to achieving a meaningful portrait of a player. For now and maybe forever, stats are necessary for understanding a player's competition. Here's a quick look at how Mark Sanchez and Matthew Stafford compare against similar quality defenses.

Note: FEI is a drive based stat and does not separate for run and pass.

Mark Sanchez

Average Opponent Defensive FEI: 50.1

Overall AY/A*: 8.46

Top 20 Opponents: 2

AVG Rank: 16

AY/A: 7.46

Top 30 Opponents: 3

AVG Rank: 19.7

AY/A: 9.54

Matthew Stafford

Average Opponent Defensive FEI**: 37.5

Overall AY/A: 8.19

Top 20 Opponents: 3

AVG Rank: 11

AY/A: 5.25

Without Florida:

AVG Rank: 16

AY/A: 5.90

Top 30 Opponents: 7

AVG Rank: 19.70

AY/A: 6.87

Without Florida:

AVG Rank: 22.83

AV/A: 7.39

Sanchez performed better overall against top competition. Stafford played against much better competition overall. Sanchez is haunted by a single, but substantial and pervasive red flag: Small sample size. He performed light years better against Penn State than he did in any other game, recording a 12.94 adjusted yards per attempt. Both quarterbacks suffered one truly humiliating contest. Stafford's came against the top overall defense in college football: Florida. He averaged only 3.94 A/YA. Sanchez's came against 45^th ranked defense Arizona State. He averaged only 2.1 AY/A.

This is a very shallow look, but it is worth noting Stafford played alongside an inferior defense, against better competition, and with much worse overall starting field position.

* Sacks omitted.

** Stats against Georgia Southern omitted.

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Comments

Quick question.

Just wondering why my fanpost was deleted. Did I unknowingly violate a guideline or something?

"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."

by Fearless Frog on Feb 15, 2009 4:01 PM PST reply actions

I emailed you

You didn’t provide a source and also, I assume, you copy and pasted an entire post.

by John Morgan on Feb 15, 2009 4:02 PM PST up reply actions

Apologies.

"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."

by Fearless Frog on Feb 15, 2009 4:03 PM PST up reply actions

It's alright

I awaited a reply, but eventually it had to be hidden. If you want to fix it, it can be found here. It needs a link and it can’t be the entire post. If you want to post the Seahawks, or something else, that’s fine.

by John Morgan on Feb 15, 2009 4:07 PM PST up reply actions

As for this, I really wish Sanchez had started before over Booty.

I like him, but like you point out, strong defensive support and a weak schedule could explain him, and then he’d essentially be the next Akili Smith (Or was it Ki-Jana Carter who started 11 games before being a top 5 pick and subsequent bust?)

"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."

by Fearless Frog on Feb 15, 2009 4:08 PM PST reply actions

It'd be interesting to see this from a top 20 and 30 defense perspective

instead of a top 20 and 30 rankings. Pac 10 schools are highly regarded for their offenses while the SEC is highly regarded for defense, that seems like it’d make a big difference in what the quarterbacks were actually seeing.

by Nate Dogg on Feb 15, 2009 4:25 PM PST reply actions

It's defense.

by John Morgan on Feb 15, 2009 4:26 PM PST up reply actions

And I've now changed the post so it reflects that

Oops!

by John Morgan on Feb 15, 2009 4:27 PM PST up reply actions

Ah, awesome

by Nate Dogg on Feb 15, 2009 4:29 PM PST up reply actions

Well it certainly makes a strong case for Stafford going 1 overall

Which I think will happen anyways.
I wonder how these two compare to the last few 1st round QBs?

by LantermanC on Feb 15, 2009 4:52 PM PST reply actions

Good idea

That could make for a followup post.

by John Morgan on Feb 15, 2009 4:59 PM PST up reply actions

So Basically,

There are so many factors we are no closer to judging their performances then before. Not really, but there is just so much to take into consideration. The sample sizes for college football are not great.

by forte40 on Feb 15, 2009 11:06 PM PST reply actions

The Sample Size Red Flag on Sanchez...

is a major hang up for me. I really like the kid’s talent though. The sample size problem is compounded by the less-than-ringing-endorsement he got from Pete Carroll on his way out the door.

Carroll of course has his incentives, but of all the college coaches out there he’s probably been the most liberal about encouraging his players to leave school early if ready. If anything, I’m inclined to think he was protecting his own franchise by signaling to the market that if this kid flops it isn’t his fault wasn’t ready. He tried to get Sanchez to come back to school.

With Stafford the completion percentage has always scared me. In that offense I’d expect to see mid-to-high 60s, maybe 70s. Then, having seen him play a lot, I saw him miss wide open guys. I also saw him thread the needle and make throws nobody else made in college this season. Gary Danielson routinely creamed his pants about this kid on the air; lots of “he reminds me a lot of Brett Favre” kinds of stuff. It’s probably a decent comparison. Stafford has an arm in that category. He also has a ton of the same bad habits. The team that selects Stafford better have a really strong coaching staff in place to break him of a lot of those habits.

"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin

by dcrockett17 on Feb 16, 2009 6:45 AM PST reply actions

I agree with your Pete Carroll assessment.

He has Mitch Mustain as his QB of the future, so it’s not like he really needed Sanchez to come back. I think Sanchez could’ve used another season’s worth of work. But then again, look at Matt Cassel (I know, just one situation). He didn’t get much ‘game time’ action and he’s doing just fine. Is one season of college football worth as much as 1 or 2 seasons on the bench as a pro backup?

by LantermanC on Feb 16, 2009 10:34 AM PST up reply actions

I would select Sanchez before Stafford.

Not saying Seattle should select him first or anything. My reasoning would be because he played at USC.

Cogito Ergo Sum

by censor1979 on Feb 16, 2009 8:59 AM PST reply actions

And that is some pretty terrible reasoning.

There have been countless offensive busts from USC since the turn of the decade.

"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."

by Fearless Frog on Feb 16, 2009 2:29 PM PST up reply actions

Damn, you beat me to it

by Nick Andron on Feb 16, 2009 3:16 PM PST up reply actions

Yar >:)

"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."

by Fearless Frog on Feb 16, 2009 8:39 PM PST up reply actions

The more i think about it, Stafford makes sense

I mean c’mon, his first name is Matthew, both Ruskell and Mora think very highly of Matthew Hasselbeck, and in Atlanta who did Ruskell and Mora choose in their first draft together? Matt Schaub. And don’t think they haven’t noticed the guy who was drafted last year and who played so well as a rookie, Matt Ryan. It’s possible they just don’t know how to call a quarterback by any other name.

I wonder how many times this happened on the sidelines in Atlanta:
“Matt, just throw the ball where I tell you.”
“Uh, for the last time coach, my name’s Michael, as in Michael Vick. GAWD. You make me so angry sometimes I could go home right now and kick or electrocute one of my dogs.”

by B.B.Finnegan on Feb 16, 2009 10:09 AM PST reply actions

There's no way Hawks select Sanchez, even if he is available in the 2nd round.

Rob Staton had an interesting post on his Seahawks draft blog a few weeks back, that convinced me that there is no chance in hell that Ruskell would draft Sanchez.

Any character red flags? Was arrested in April 2006 on an allegation of sexual assault. The team temporarily suspended Sanchez, although the charges were later dropped due to ‘insufficient evidence’. He has also been disciplined by the team for under age drinking and using a fake I.D. He was also detained but not arrested for breaking a window at a fraternity party.

After reading that, it sounds like he could potentially be the second coming of Jeremy Stevens. Even if that’s going to far, it sounds like he’s made some stupid decisions, and giving him millions of dollars right out of college is likely to lead to more stupid decisions on his part. I kind of expect him to take a Randy Moss like draft day dive in the 1st round.

by Mind of no mind on Feb 16, 2009 1:39 PM PST reply actions