Why Matthew Stafford Will Be Available for Seattle at Four

by John Morgan on Feb 16, 2009 4:34 PM PST

Here's the last piece in my roundabout explanation why I think Seattle will draft Matthew Stafford.

1. Detroit

Relevant information: GM Martin Mayhew and Head Coach Jim Schwarz are economics majors who graduated from Georgetown.

Reason it's relevant: Quarterback is a risky position and Stafford is a risky pick. I'm sure Mayhew is abundantly aware of the potential boondoggle a first round pick can become. Schwarz is known for his support and endorsement of Football Outsiders. Between Stafford's lousy Lewin Projection and a small raft of elite, low risk tackle talents, the Lions are very unlikely to take Stafford in the first.

Complicating Factor: Two economics majors at the helm means Detroit trading down for something less than perceived value is very possible. The team that trades with Detroit could target Stafford.

2. Saint Louis

Relevant Information: Saint Louis signed Bulger during the rolling times of 2007. The team was fresh off an 8-8 season and thought it was building towards the future, not, you know, investing with Bernie Madoff. Trusting the then 30 year old Bulger was squarely within his prime, the team heavily back loaded the contract. Rotoworld reports that cutting or trading Bulger would cost nearly ten million against the cap.

Reason it's relevant: Of the many needs for the 2-14 Rams, quarterback is not one of them. Saint Louis can't move Bulger anyway. The Rams signed Steven Jackson to a six year, 44.8 million dollar contract, and have added offensive talent in each of the last two drafts. Rumors are circulating the team will cut Orlando Pace.

The teamed signed Steve Spagnuolo to be their head coach, but the defense is old and almost talent free in the secondary. Unless Malcolm Jenkins bombs out at the combine, expect him to be a Ram. If Jenkins does bomb out, or if the Rams cut ties with Pace, a tackle would also make sense. What doesn't make sense is having another hugely expensive quarterback on the roster.

Complicating Factor: None.

3. Kansas City

Relevant Information: Tyler Thigpen is 24 and doesn't completely suck.

Reason it's relevant: Kansas City's brain trust is two guys, Scott Pioli and Todd Haley, known for getting top production out of unlikely quarterbacks. Pioli participated in New England drafting Tom Brady 199^th overall. That's documented. What's less well known is Haley's role developing Tony Romo (as passing game coordinator in Dallas) and guiding Kurt Warner to a late-career resurgence. Haley has also seen his share of first round flameouts, most recently in (maybe) Matt Leinart, but more infamously in Rex "Sex Cannon" Grossman.

Complicating Factor: Thigpen might completely suck.

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Comments

What is this, FG's christmas?

Well, I feel like draft’s are different every year, but the last time a QB didn’t get taken with a top 3 pick was 2000 with Chad Pennington going 18.
Oddly enough the year before that the first three picks were QBs and 5 of the first 12.

by LantermanC on Feb 16, 2009 5:01 PM PST reply actions

You seem to have been on overdrive these past couple days.

Take a break. That said, I like our chances to land Stafford. Not that I want him, I just get your point. However, Romo, Brady, and Warner are all QBs in pass-heavy offenses, even if they were unlikely starters. Thigpen was only slightly effective last year throwing for about 184yds per game. Stafford has a reputation as a guy with a big arm who likes to throw the ball, which seemingly fits the mold of Brady, Romo, and Warner. Regardless of draft position, doesn’t he seem a lot more like a Haley/Pioli QB than Thigpen?

by SeaTownBlueDevil on Feb 16, 2009 5:02 PM PST reply actions

Thigpen is gritty.

I wouldn’t draft QB in the first round this year, especially if I knew ,(like KC does) that I would select in the top 5 again next year.

Cogito Ergo Sum

by censor1979 on Feb 17, 2009 5:00 AM PST up reply actions

Just like Atlanta 'knew' they'd be picking in the top-5 again?

Or Miami? I don’t think next year’s draft spot is a factor in that type of decision.

by Misfit74 on Feb 17, 2009 9:32 AM PST up reply actions

I think that

I’m still hoping Seattle decides to pick up a 1st round QB next year and grabs something else this year. I just can’t get over the idea of spending $60 million on a player who we will have sit for 1-2 years. Especially a guy that seems like such a crap shoot like Stafford. If he’s available, I REALLY hope we take the opportunity to move back and let some other team pay top dollar for him (and several picks).

by Fear on Feb 16, 2009 5:14 PM PST reply actions