Peria Jerry Is Old for His Level

by John Morgan on Feb 7, 2009 12:50 PM PST in Analysis Comment 18 comments

On June 10, 2009, Amobi Okoye turns 22. Little more than a month later, Peria Jerry turns 25. Okoye will be preparing for his third season in the NFL. Jerry will be preparing for his first preseason in the NFL. If in the coming months you read in some haphazard scouting report that at Ole Miss Jerry looked like "a man among boys", perhaps it's because he was a man playing among boys. That's a crimson flag with about fifteen spotlights.

A minor league baseball player can be described as "old for his level". A player old for his level has his performance and potential discounted. That phrase is foreign to the NFL, but it shouldn't be. The exact same logic applies. Extensive studies have proven that players improve in ability up to a certain age (typically in the mid to late twenties) and then decline. I've yet to read a definitive explanation as to why this occurs, but I think it's simply a matter of a player reaching an optimum equilibrium of athleticism and expertise.

Okoye recorded 5.5 sacks and 7 tackles for a loss at 20. That's remarkable and Okoye has an excellent shot of becoming a top five defensive tackle. If baseball be an analog, he has a very good chance to make the Hall of Fame. His rookie season compares to Ken Griffey Jr.'s 1989. Neither were fantastic, but both more than held their own against established, full-grown professionals.

Jerry isn't just old for his level, he's old. He's older than Darryl Tapp, Lawrence Jacskon, Brandon Mebane, Sedrick Ellis, Trevor Laws, Glenn Dorsey and even 2006 first overall pick Mario Williams. If Jerry entered the NFL draft following his junior season, he would have been a mid-round pick. His stellar 2008 has pushed him into the first day. That's a bad investment. Jerry should excel at his age and level, and he didn't. He played very well.

Defensive tackles that are young for their level:

Clinton McDonald (January 6, 1987)

Sen'Derrick Marks (February 23, 1987)

Evander Hood (February 16, 1987)

Vance Walker (April 26, 1987)

Alex Magee (April 28, 1987)

Roy Miller (July 7, 1987)

George Hypolite (August 1, 1987)

Just missed:

Ron Brace (December 18, 1986)

Ricky Jean-Francois (November 23, 1986)

John Gill (October 28, 1986)

Terrill Byrd (October 8, 1986)

Jervonte Jackson (September 9, 1986)

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I think Sen’Derrick Marks would be a great pick up for 3 Tech.

by Built2Spill on Feb 7, 2009 1:15 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Good stuff. Please avoid old talent.

Another good example of this would be Chris Weinke. Older player who did well at Florida St and crated in the pros at Carolina.

"Hey, guess what? Nobody cares who would win in a crazy fantasy fist-fight between Anne Frank and Lizzie Borden." The Monarch

by crushedoptimist on Feb 7, 2009 1:52 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

John, another great post.

your assertion about peaking in your late twenties is true for most sports. Womens gymnastics being an obvious exception. It’s not just fast-twitch vs. slow twitch muscles, or wear and tear on joints, it’s also eyesight and brain function. They say even mathmaticians peak before 30.

Given that, it’s clear that developing young talent through the draft, or picking up young talent through free-agency should be a priority, and yes, age should affect value. I know, I was the guy suggesting we go hard after Housh, but that’s a special case given our holes at WR, and with Hass only having 1-2 years left in all probability, we don’t have time to rely exclusively on developing young talent.

If we are going to dip into the high priced free-agent pool, I would hope we’d be looking almost exclusively at the under 26 group. In spite of his recent FU, Leroy Hill will benefit from that. Frankly, I don’t see Seattle doing anything in free-agency of any significance.

by diehard82 on Feb 7, 2009 2:07 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I used to think of this as the mormon mission rule

but that’s not very nice.
—-
I’ll be interested to see what we do about adding d-line depth. I love Ziggy Hood as a run plugging DT, but I don’t see him making it to the top of the 3rd round.

"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin

by dcrockett17 on Feb 7, 2009 2:12 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Damn John

you are a busy beaver these days.

"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin

by dcrockett17 on Feb 7, 2009 2:13 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Any thoughts of picking up Igor Olshansky at DE

Unrelated but we have not talked about him. I think that would be a great pick up. Especially if go hybrid. 6’6’’ 309 he is ideal size for 3 tech and DE 3-4. Blue collar kind of player. High motor. Would not be surprised to see him in seahawks blue.

by Built2Spill on Feb 7, 2009 2:33 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Yes. Good to hear I haven't reached my athletic peak yet.

So do your thoughts also carry over to the Texas WR who was 26 and possibly the MVP in their bowl game?

by LantermanC on Feb 7, 2009 2:41 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I would be pretty surprised if Quan Cosby is drafted

by John Morgan on Feb 7, 2009 5:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Same,

but I felt there was a chance, since age might be more of a position specific benefit. No one really gets much faster after 23, but you definitely get stronger so I thought it might relate more to lineman than WRs.

by LantermanC on Feb 7, 2009 6:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

John Carlson was 24 last season

what kind of upside does he have?

by puerto on Feb 7, 2009 4:03 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I think we knew coming in that his potential wasn't sky-high.

He was a low-risk pick. We knew what we were getting, which was a very NFL-ready TE with some room to grow. And considering that we thought we were a solid lock for a playoff team last season, we didn’t want a raw, high-potential kid that would take time to develop.

by SeaTownBlueDevil on Feb 7, 2009 4:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

What do you mean by "Just Missed"?

And what do you think of Jean-Francois?

by Nate Dogg on Feb 7, 2009 6:13 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Not "young" for their level

But certainly on the younger side of medium. That’s how I read it looking at the dates.

by cashless on Feb 7, 2009 7:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Why isn't his age a positive?

If a players “peak” is in his mid to late twenties…. wouldn’t we rather have him on an inexpensive rookie contract (assuming he is a 3rd-4th round pick) while he is in his prime than have him just coming into his own and looking for a huge payday (Leroy Hill, Marcus Trufant).

This logic (too old to draft) would only apply if we were in a position where we had to commit big money or a long term contract to him.

If he is a project at 25 that’s a different story. If he is a guy that can contribute the first year or two the age shouldn’t matter. Being 25, all other things being equal, should be a positive and not a negative.

I'd like to kick Josh Brown in the privates!

by The Manchild on Feb 7, 2009 9:13 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

It means that Raji is a superior draft prospect as he has showed

similar production but has not yet reached his physical peak. Thus, he has a chance to be a MUCH better player than Jerry.

by redwolf75 on Feb 7, 2009 9:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

:)

doh…. truth be told… I had never heard of him and for some reason after reading John’s post I thought this guy was a late first day guy.

“If Jerry entered the NFL draft following his junior season, he would have been a mid-round pick. His stellar 2008 has pushed him into the first day.”

I didn’t know this discussion was about our 1st round pick. I would like to retract my post on this page and place it on a page where we are talking about a 3rd round pick who is turning 25.

I'd like to kick Josh Brown in the privates!

by The Manchild on Feb 7, 2009 9:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs