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Tim Ruskell Attends Georgia Pro Day

I've pumped this possibility for a while, but it's time everyone comes to terms with the startlingly exciting and exhilaratingly terrifying prospect that Seattle will draft Matthew Stafford with the fourth overall pick. Multiple accounts report Stafford excelled. I certainly hope Stafford excelled at Georgia's Pro Day.

I'm drown in too much to do as late, with the Julian Peterson trade and an incomplete look at Patrick Chung, but I intend to fully break down at least two games started by Stafford. There's a perception from some that Stafford is a second rate quarterback prospect. This is due to the overall weak quarterback class, Stafford being overshadowed by Sam Bradford and fears about Stafford's decision making. The fears are justified, but don't be mistaken. Stafford is one of the most talented quarterback prospects to enter the draft in many years. He was universally considered a better prospect than Bradford, Mark Sanchez and Colt McCoy before the season started and should he reach his potential, is a near-certain Hall of Famer. Forget bogus projection systems, Stafford's next four years is going to be a wild, unpredictable ride that should be crazy fun or at least barf-inducing.

Oh, and Knownshon Moreno moonwalked to a 4.63 in the 40 yard dash. You never know, Seattle could trade back into the first to select him.

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In a way, I'd hope Stafford perform poorly at the Pro Day

so to sooth my fears that he won’t be chosen ahead of us. Frankly, I’d be equally as happy with the Seahawks drafting him as us drafting Smith or Monroe. I’m just curious exactly how interested the Lions are in Stafford.

by J.L. White on Mar 19, 2009 2:53 PM PDT reply actions  

So's Roethlisberger

and on balance, the Steelers are still better off with him than they would be without him. What’s more, unless Curry’s there (which I don’t see either) and you want to make a case for him, I really can’t think of anyone else who would really return full value for the pick. (I like Crabtree, but I don’t like the odds on picking him at #4.)

by The Ancient Mariner on Mar 19, 2009 3:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

I know most won't agree,

but if trading for Roethlisberger guaranteed us a Super Bowl, I would say thanks but no thanks, I don’t want him.

by LantermanC on Mar 19, 2009 3:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

I hate to say it but I'm leaning more towards grabbing him

I just think Matt is beat up and unlikely to have another complete season in him.

Stafford is also a good scrambler, there’s some nice runs in here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t2nVLO39wB4

by shams on Mar 19, 2009 4:10 PM PDT reply actions  

His 50 yard bomb at the 2:00 mark is just too damn impressive.

Scramble at 2:40 is equally impressive.
45 yard laser at 3:45 is great too.

It’s hard not to like a guy after watching is highlight video though.

by LantermanC on Mar 19, 2009 4:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

On the contrary, I think we're all overblowing his durability.

But in either case, he’s a free agent in two seasons and it would be great to have a legit QB developing until then.

"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."

by Fearless Frog on Mar 19, 2009 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

Given the new emphasis on running,

Perhaps we should be evaluating Stafford’s ablility to hand off and run playaction.

by Groundhog on Mar 19, 2009 5:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

"and should he reach his potential, is a near-certain Hall of Famer. "

Is this hyperbole or do you really believe this?

"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."

by Fearless Frog on Mar 19, 2009 4:55 PM PDT reply actions  

Cannon arm, great pocket awareness, great accuracy

That’s Brett Favre with better moves and better pocket awareness. Now, reaching potential is no small thing, but I think it’s fair to say Stafford has about as high ceiling as a non-Vick quarterback can have.

by John Morgan on Mar 19, 2009 5:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

Fair enough.

But how much value are we placing into physical tools? In retrospect, should a cannon-arm and some minor mobility really have made JaMarcus Russell a #1 pick? Not saying Stafford is Russell, of course.

"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."

by Fearless Frog on Mar 19, 2009 5:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

What made me crazy about Russell

is that so few considered his surrounding talent or how much of that offense was: three step drop, wide receiver screen. I guess you could say Russell still has a high ceiling, but I never thought Russell was NFL accurate or ever going to make the leap to NFL level progressions. The latter is the bigger problem for Stafford, but it’s not remote. He’ll need work, but I think if he’s coachable he can develop a good read to go with his exceptional skills. What I think Stafford needs more than anything, and maybe will be the subject of a future post, is talent around him. I think a lot of busts are the result of a team truly believing they can rebuild an offense from the quarterback up, but by the time the rest of the offense is there, the quarterback is so shellshocked and gun shy that their stuck in bad habits and winging it at the first sign of pressure. I think Seattle has a good setup for a quarterback all around. Including a long, gradual learning curve.

by John Morgan on Mar 19, 2009 5:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

Well-stated.

"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."

by Fearless Frog on Mar 19, 2009 5:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

Just a thought: maybe the Housh signing has to do with potentially drafting a QB

Confidence for a young QB seems to be really important. If we were to draft Stafford, as John says it would be important to surround him with talent. What’s better talent than an exceptionally consistent possession WR?

by djafrot on Mar 19, 2009 11:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

John... if you hadn't attached a name to your description and one was searching the recent draft logs...

It would appear you were almost describing Matt Ryan. Is Ryan a good look at what Stafford’s comparative upside could look like?

by iverson2169 on Mar 19, 2009 9:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

Matt Ryan has a cannon arm?

"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."

by Fearless Frog on Mar 19, 2009 10:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

I don't know... I've never had a forensics test done.

But ESPN had this to say about Ryan…

Oh sure, the draft’s premier quarterback passed well — or at least accurately. Most of his spirals were lumpy, especially when the righty threw to his left. But only one of the 52 passes wasn’t catchable, and most in attendance liked Ryan’s arm strength and speed.

Again, I was posing a question: Is Ryan a decent example of comparative upside?

by iverson2169 on Mar 19, 2009 10:48 PM PDT up reply actions  

Not sure about Matt Ryan

but when I think of Stafford’s ceiling, I think of Favre/Cutler. Bit of mobility, big and strong in the pocket, cannon for an arm, able to make any throw, a bit reckless with decision making at times.

by LantermanC on Mar 20, 2009 9:18 AM PDT up reply actions  

I noticed a lot of those passes were out of the shotgun

I don’t know what that says, but if we draft him I guess it’s a good thing Holmgren isn’t still around.

by B.B.Finnegan on Mar 19, 2009 7:26 PM PDT reply actions  

Almost every college offense implements the shotgun in one way or another.

You’ll also find a lot of passes out of a regular drop-back, which is already more than many college QBs can claim they’ve applied.

"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."

by Fearless Frog on Mar 19, 2009 10:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

Georgia QB stats

found these from various locations. Just thought I’d post these for the hell of it, not saying it means anything one way or another, because I do believe Stafford is the best and has the best chance to succeed, I’m just not sold that it’ll happen.

CMP ATT PCT YDS AVG TDS INT RAT

Matthew Stafford 2006-2008

235 383 3459 61.4 9.03 25 10 153.5
194 348 2523 55.7 7.25 19 10 128.9
135 256 1749 52.7 6.83 7 13 109.0

D.J. Shockley 2005

173 310 2588 55.8 8.35 24 5 148.3

David Greene 2001-2004

175 299 2508 58.5 8.39 20 4 148.4
264 438 3307 60.3 7.55 13 11 128.5
218 379 2924 57.5 7.72 22 8 137.3
192 324 2789 59.3 8.61 17 9 143.3

Quincy Carter 1998-2000

   91 183 49.7 1250 6.83 6 10 107.0
216 380 56.8 2713 7.14 17 6 128.4
176 290 60.7 2484 8.57 12 9 140.1

by B.B.Finnegan on Mar 19, 2009 7:48 PM PDT reply actions  

The four quarterbacks preceeding Peyton Manning?

Heath Schuler, Jerry Colquitt, Todd Helton, and Brandon Stewart.

What does that have to do with anything?

by Nate Dogg on Mar 19, 2009 7:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm not sure what you find similar about those numbers of the Georgia QB's

You have to pick and choose from Greene’s four years to find numbers that are close to Staffords, none of which better Staffords numbers. Add in that Greene’s offense was drastically different from Staffords offense and you have nothing usefull there.

Did you know the quarterback at Miami of Ohio before Ben Roethlisberger was Mike Bath?

by Nate Dogg on Mar 19, 2009 8:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

Bike Math!

Actually, I didn’t. Did you, or did you look it up along with the QBs preceding Manning? Because I sure as hell didn’t know that off the top of my head.

"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."

by Fearless Frog on Mar 19, 2009 10:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

I've seen this before.

Here’s the problem I have with college stats. You can’t tell what weapons the guy has at his disposal. Leinart’s seasons at USC were very great, but he had a great line, great running backs, and great WRs. If a guy has a poor offensive line and WRs with can’t catch or seperate, then I’m going to give him more room, which is why scouting is so important. Could Greene move in the pocket? You can’t tell from those stats. Can Stafford? Yes, he can from his videos. Does Greene have the arm strength to make an off balance pass or throw it 50 yards? Don’t think so, but Stafford can.

by LantermanC on Mar 19, 2009 10:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I've stopped giving Stafford so much shit

because his line wasn’t exactly a solid unit of All-Pros in the making.

"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."

by Fearless Frog on Mar 19, 2009 10:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

How was Greene's offense any different then Staffords?

Same coach, same offense. If anything Stafford’s was better in terms of tallent, I don’t remember Greene ever having a runner like Moreno.

And I’ve said this before, but quarterback history is a crap shoot, I agree. Most times one Quarterback comes out of the blue where before them all were busts, I’m not arguing that. But if you don’t see any similarities between all four QB’s statistically wise, i don’t know what to tell you. Greene, all four years, had better completion percentage then Stafford up till his last year, and less interceptions. I’m still not arguing that Stafford isn’t the best of the Georgia crop, but elite and far above? Possibly, he certainly got better every year, but overall I’m not buying it.

You can trot out as many Roethlisberger/Bath comparisons all you want, give me some stats to show me their similar numbers, otherwise you’re not really making a point.

by B.B.Finnegan on Mar 19, 2009 9:07 PM PDT reply actions  

Same coach same offense is not necessarily true

The offense that DJ Shockley ran did not look anything like the one Greene or Stafford ran. The offense built around Stafford included routes that Greene simply did not have the arm strength to complete. They’re different players, hence different game plans.

There are similarities between the numbers but they’re scattered. Greene broke 60% completion percentage in his junior year, did not better Staffords senior year. He got close to Stafford in yards in his junior year. He got close to Staffords 14.7 yards/attempt in his senior year posting 14.2. He was close to Staffords touch down numbers in his sophomore year. Close, close, close, scattered over 3 years, none of them better with the exception of interceptions. And none of it addresses the caliber of player either Greene or Stafford is.

by Nate Dogg on Mar 19, 2009 9:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

some good points there

this was the kind of dialogue I was trying to get going, I really don’t know much about Stafford other then his stats, combine, and recent interviews.

Stats certainly aren’t everything, but they’re not nothing. Peyton Manning absolutely obliterated Tennessee’s records, and Shulers previous records, as well as a few NCAA records. An unquestionable #1 pick. And then there’s system QB’s like Harrell (or Kelly Stouffer) with amazing stats but that may be all to them. Stafford? I don’t know. From a pure statistical standpoint, which is all i was bringing up here, I’m not so sure. There are of course many other factors, which you and others have alluded to, poor offensive line, intangibles, etc… I have a feeling we’ll all have a much better idea, at least those of us who haven’t watched him play, when Morgan does his game analysis.

by B.B.Finnegan on Mar 20, 2009 11:14 AM PDT up reply actions  

Don't forget Colt Brennan!

"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."

by Fearless Frog on Mar 20, 2009 4:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

Do his skills remind anyone of Jeff George

The description is eerily similar. Cannon Arm, won a lot of games. If you are taking a QB in the first ten picks you better be damn sure that the player has “IT” to be the leader of men. Elway could make all the throws, but so could Tim Couch.

by Section 128 on Mar 20, 2009 8:28 AM PDT reply actions  

You can't predict "intangibles"

Elway had a losing record in college, refused to play for the team that drafted him and forced a trade, and continually clashed with his HC in Denver. Couch was a 3 year starter who took Kentucky to Bowl games and was universally praised for his leadership and “being clutch” Steve Young pissed around the USFL and alienated teammates in Tampa Bay. Brett Favre attitude got him traded out of Atlanta. Peyton manning was seen as a choker that couldn’t win the games that mattered at Tennessee, while Ryan leaf was talked up as some one who had the “swagger” to make it in the NFL. The deap-pan sarcastic humor that everybody now loves about Hass was seen as cocky egotism when he showed up here, and rubbed a lot of fans the wrong way.

These are 23 year old kids. There is no way to conclusively predict how they will grow and mature. “leadership” is earned over time and with wins. All you can do is draft a guy with talent and work ethic, surround him with good talent, put him in position to succeed, and then hope things turn out fo the best.

by jteckmann on Mar 20, 2009 8:54 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

also, "leadership" = success

if he calls out teammates and wins by a fieldgoal he’s a fiery leader, if he calls out teammates and loses by a fieldgoal he’s a distraction and a discontent.

we have to be careful to make sure the media’s narrative isn’t defining intangibles.

by cro-mag! on Mar 20, 2009 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions  

Awesomne point

You said in 2 sentences what I was struggling to get at in 2 paragraphs.

by jteckmann on Mar 20, 2009 10:28 AM PDT up reply actions  

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