Like most of you, since the Seahawks hired Gregg Knapp, I heard some grumblings about the Knappkin offense in Atlanta and its “Warrick Dunn right end, Warrick Dunn left end, Vick incomplete pass, punt” offense so I got bored this weekend and I thought I’d take a look at the 2005 season as a sample and see if it held true. And then I figured I’d post it on here and see I could bore the hell out of FielGulls. Hey, if I had to suffer digging this stuff up, I’m taking others down with me. I used 2005 because they already had a year of Knapp to institute his offense and in 2006 they had a bunch of injuries and distractions. Note that on the run plays I made no distinction between who was the running back, unless it was Vick as it is impossible, without watching the games, to say if the Vick runs were planned or scrambles. Also, I made no distinction on who was making the passes, I went by pure playcalling, so Matt Shaub’s passes are included.
Might be kinda silly to see if a very arbitrary myth holds true, but like I said, I was bored, and all this waiting for the draft is driving me nuts.
So, this is what I found from going through all the games in play-by-play mode from NFL.com:
6 - Examples that are exact fits
3 - Examples that ended in field goals rather then punts
2 - Completed pass short of first down
1 - Ended in a sack
So out of 16 games that’s 12 total examples, only half of which fit the run run pass punt scenario perfectly. Less then once a game. Conclusion based on the 2005 Atlanta season: greatly exaggerated myth.
Sidenote: what stuck out more then anything was that Knapp's playcalling was very balanced. Which means, I saw a lot of alternating run pass run pass run pass, and most drives appeared to be killed by incomplete Michael Vick passes. Makeable ones (at least on paper). Another thing that made the run run pass scenario weak and me want to investigate it further is that just on face value, if a team is running two times per every pass, that’s a 2/3 run ration, far more then Knapps typically 50 percent ratio. So while I do expect more running this year, I would not expect the pass to disappear. In fact, if the pass is working well, I expect him to go to it more often. Also, I don’t recall seeing too many draw plays on third down, but that’s another story.
These are the details of my results (feel free to take a knapp here instead if you wish):
Game 1, 14-10 win over Eagles
Game 2, 18-21 loss to Seahawks
Game 3, 24-16 win over Bills
Game 4, 30-10 win over the Vikings
up 24-0, beginning of second half
P.Edinger kicks 68 yards from MIN 30 to ATL 2. A.Rossum to ATL 38 for 36 yards (D.Edwards).
1-10-ATL 38 (14:53) W.Dunn up the middle to ATL 40 for 2 yards (K.Williams).
2-8-ATL 40 (14:14) W.Dunn up the middle to ATL 42 for 2 yards (D.Scott).
3-6-ATL 42 (13:31) (Shotgun) M.Schaub pass incomplete to R.White.
4-6-ATL 42 (13:26) M.Koenen punts 39 yards to MIN 19
1-10-ATL 1 (9:51) T.Duckett up the middle to ATL 2 for 1 yard (E.Henderson).
2-9-ATL 2 (9:15) T.Duckett up the middle to ATL 8 for 6 yards (C.Chavous, S.Cowart).
3-3-ATL 8 (8:37) M.Schaub pass incomplete to J.Griffith.
4-3-ATL 8 (8:29) M.Koenen punts 38 yards to ATL 46
Game 5, 31-28 loss to Patriots
3rd Quarter, down 21-13
1-10-ATL 18 (11:02) W.Dunn up the middle to ATL 25 for 7 yards (V.Wilfork).
2-3-ATL 25 (10:30) W.Dunn left tackle to ATL 26 for 1 yard (T.Warren).
3-2-ATL 26 (9:51) M.Schaub pass to A.Crumpler to ATL 27 for 1 yard (G.Scott).
4-1-ATL 27 (9:07) M.Koenen punts 47 yards to NE 26
Game 6, 34-31 win over Saints
up 17-10, beginning of second half.
M.Berger kicks 68 yards from NO 30 to ATL 2. A.Rossum ran ob at ATL 26 for 24 yards (J.Craft).
1-10-ATL 26 (14:53) W.Dunn left guard to ATL 29 for 3 yards (C.Grant, W.Whitehead).
2-7-ATL 29 (14:23) W.Dunn right guard to ATL 31 for 2 yards (B.Young, W.Smith).
3-5-ATL 31 (13:42) (Shotgun) M.Vick sacked at ATL 25 for -6 yards (W.Smith).
4-11-ATL 25 (13:08) M.Koenen punts 51 yards to NO 24
Game 7, 27-14 win over Jets
Game 8, 17-10 win over Dolphins
I’m including this one even though it’s a field goal, it’s the end of the first drive of the second half, Atlanta was up 14-10.
1-4-MIA 4 (5:42) W.Dunn right guard to MIA 2 for 2 yards (K.Carter).
2-2-MIA 2 (5:08) W.Dunn up the middle to MIA 3 for -1 yards (Z.Thomas).
3-3-MIA 3 (4:25) (Shotgun) M.Vick pass incomplete to B.Finneran.
4-3-MIA 3 (4:20) T.Peterson 21 yard field goal is GOOD
Game 9, 25-33 loss to Packers
Game 10, 27-30 loss to Bucs
First quarter, down 7-0
M.Bryant kicks 66 yards from TB 30 to ATL 4. T.Duckett to ATL 22 for 18 yards (M.Cooper).
1-10-ATL 22 (10:34) W.Dunn left tackle to ATL 22 for no gain (G.Spires).
2-10-ATL 22 (9:54) W.Dunn left tackle to ATL 25 for 3 yards (G.Spires, S.Quarles).
3-7-ATL 25 (9:18) (Shotgun) M.Vick pass incomplete to B.Finneran.
4-7-ATL 25 (9:12) M.Koenen punts 37 yards to TB 38
Game 11, 27-7 win over Lions
Another one that ends in a field goal, not punt. Atlanta already up 24-0
1-10-DET 10 (6:41) T.Duckett right tackle to DET 6 for 4 yards (J.Hall).
2-6-DET 6 (6:05) T.Duckett left tackle to DET 5 for 1 yard (J.DeVries).
3-5-DET 5 (5:19) M.Vick pass incomplete to M.Jenkins.
4-5-DET 5 (5:15) T.Peterson 23 yard field goal is GOOD
Game 12, 6-24 loss to Panthers
Game 13, 36-17 win over Saints
boyah, opening drive of the game:
M.Berger kicks 61 yards from NO 30 to ATL 9. J.Griffith to ATL 28 for 19 yards (F.McAfee).
1-10-ATL 28 (14:53) W.Dunn right tackle to ATL 32 for 4 yards (C.Grant).
2-6-ATL 32 (14:21) W.Dunn left tackle to ATL 33 for 1 yard (B.Young).
3-5-ATL 33 (13:44) (Shotgun) M.Vick pass incomplete to R.White. Penalty on ATL-K.Shaffer, Offensive Holding, declined.
4-5-ATL 33 (13:37) M.Koenen punts 55 yards to NO 12
First drive of the second half, up 21-17
1-10-ATL 32 (13:22) W.Dunn right tackle to ATL 33 for 1 yard (T.Melton).
2-9-ATL 33 (12:47) W.Dunn up the middle to ATL 41 for 8 yards (D.Smith).
3-1-ATL 41 (12:11) M.Vick pass incomplete to A.Crumpler.
4-1-ATL 41 (12:06) M.Koenen punts 49 yards to NO 10
Atlanta’s last drive of the 4th quarter already up 33-17
1-9-NO 9 (4:38) W.Dunn right end to NO 4 for 5 yards (R.McKinnon).
2-4-NO 4 (3:52) W.Dunn up the middle to NO 3 for 1 yard (J.Bullocks, C.Bockwoldt).
3-3-NO 3 (3:09) M.Schaub pass incomplete to A.Crumpler.
4-3-NO 3 (3:04) T.Peterson 20 yard field goal is GOOD
Game 14, 3-16 loss to Bears
not exactly an incomplete pass, but close enough. 0-0 game in 1st quarter
1-10-ATL 43 (9:49) W.Dunn right guard to ATL 44 for 1 yard (L.Joe, B.McGowan).
2-9-ATL 44 (9:12) W.Dunn left tackle to ATL 45 for 1 yard (L.Briggs).
3-8-ATL 45 (8:33) (Shotgun) M.Vick pass to A.Crumpler to ATL 48 for 3 yards (B.Urlacher, M.Green).
4-5-ATL 48 (8:15) (Punt formation) M.Koenen punts 50 yards to CHI 2
Next drive, not sure if this should count as they initially tried to pass, but close enough
1-10-CHI 24 (5:16) M.Vick pass incomplete to A.Crumpler. PENALTY on ATL-T.Weiner, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 24 - No Play.
1-20-CHI 34 (5:08) T.Duckett right guard to CHI 33 for 1 yard (T.Harris, L.Briggs).
2-19-CHI 33 (4:28) W.Dunn left tackle to CHI 33 for no gain (J.Azumah).
3-19-CHI 33 (3:44) M.Vick pass incomplete to B.Finneran.
4-19-CHI 33 (3:40) (Punt formation) M.Koenen punts 23 yards to CHI 10
Game 15, 24-27 loss to Bucs
none, but didn’t include overtime as for some reason the play-by-play of overtime was missing.
Game 16, 11-44 loss to Panthers