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The Tape: The Glory of Him Who Moves All

Second Half

Drive Seven

1-10-GA44(14:53) Matthew Stafford passed to Michael Moore for 6 yards.

3 WR (right), WR (left), RB (right), Shotgun

Stafford effectively sells plays action then throws a slot screen.

2-4-50 (14:26) Matthew Stafford passed to Mohamed Massaquoi for 10 yards.

3 WR (left), WR (right), RB (left), Shotgun

Stafford effectively sells plays action then hits Massaquoi in the hands, over-leading him a bit, Massaquoi runs through the completion for 10.

1-10-MIST40(13:57) Knowshon Moreno rushed for 3 yards.

Good, smooth handoff.

2-7-MIST37(13:15) Matthew Stafford passed to Knowshon Moreno for 6 yards.

2 WR (right (stacked in the slot)), WR (left), RB (right), TE (right), SG

Left defensive end Trevor Anderson immediately comes free to Stafford. Stafford shows good poise, not retreating, but facing heat and throwing an outlet with touch to Moreno.

Stafford is stopped on a quarterback sneak.

-Holding Penalty-

~End of drive~

Drive Eight

1-10-GA3(9:22) Knowshon Moreno rushed for 11 yards.

1-10-GA14(8:50) Matthew Stafford passed incomplete to Mohamed Massaquoi.

2 WR (left), WR (right), TE (left), RB (right), Shotgun

Low snap. Stafford reads left, looks right, decisive pass to Massaquoi, but too low and Massaquoi is forced to trap it. Pass bounces incomplete.

2-10-GA14(8:45) Matthew Stafford passed to Knowshon Moreno for 5 yards.

2 WR (left), WR (right), TE (left), RB (right), Shotgun

Stafford looks down field, side arms to Moreno. The pass is accurate.

3-5-GA19(7:59) Matthew Stafford passed to Michael Moore for 16 yards.

2 WR (left), WR (right), TE (right), RB (right), Shotgun

Max protect. Stafford reads right, left, then center-left finding Moore sitting in the soft spot of a zone. Stafford zings it, but with good touch and perfect accuracy.

1-10-GA35(7:27) Knowshon Moreno lost 1 yard. 2-11-GA34(6:39)

GA penalized 5 yards.

2-16-GA29(6:13) Matthew Stafford passed to A.J. Green for 12 yards.

3 WR (right), WR (left), RB (left), Shotgun

Stafford reads center, center-right, plants and fires an accurate pass with good zip and good touch.

3-4-GA41(5:32) Matthew Stafford passed to Kris Durham for 13 yards.  

2 WR (left), WR (right), RB (right), TE (left), Shotgun

Michigan State blitzes five. The offensive line bates the defense in and passes to the second level. Stafford stares down five free defenders, targets Durham on a middle screen and then braces for impact. Durham slides under his pulling blockers for 13 and the first.

1-10-MIST46(4:54) Knowshon Moreno rushed for no gain.  

2-10-MIST46(4:13) Matthew Stafford passed to Caleb King for 10 yards.

3 WR (left), WR (right), RB (left), Shotgun

Michigan State blitzes five on a corner blitz. Stafford again shows good poise, standing ground and lobbing a screen to King.

1-10-MIST36(15:00) Touchdown. Matthew Stafford passed to Michael Moore for 35 yards.

3 WR (left), WR (right), RB (left), Shotgun

Play action. Stafford freezes the safety -- shoot, just watch.

Comment 32 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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I'm not sure if I'm supposed to be logged into YouTube or something,

because I can’t watch the video.

"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."

by Fearless Frog on Mar 24, 2009 5:05 PM PDT reply actions  

Thanks.

I think that should be fixed now.

by John Morgan on Mar 24, 2009 5:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

He's not NFL ready

No doubt, but seeing him make progressions and mid-length passes makes me think he has all the skills necessary.

by John Morgan on Mar 24, 2009 5:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm particularly interested in two things

Was his line as bad as people say it was and, assuming it was that poor, did his pocket presence get noticabley worse as the season wore on? This is his last college game, it’s be interesting to compare his play in this game to his play in the South Carolina or Alabama games.

by Nate Dogg on Mar 24, 2009 7:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

UGA fan here..

The OL wasn’t poor in terms of talent, but was completely ravaged by injuries. We were starting our 4th LT, and starting 2 true freshmen, 2 sophomores, and 1 JuCo transfer.

Stafford is better than his film. I selfishly wish he’d have come back just to see what he could do behind an OL with more than 1 upperclassman, but he is ready. He won’t be a 1st-year savior, ala Ryan or Flacco, but if given time to learn then his ceiling is extremely high. The day he is drafted, he has the strongest arm in the league.

by Hobnail_Boot on Mar 29, 2009 11:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

Thanks for your input.

As long as it’s stronger than Chad Pennington’s arm, I’d be okay with it.

"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."

by Fearless Frog on Mar 30, 2009 10:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

Works for Brady, doesn't it?

…… and there’s yet ANOTHER bubble screen to Wes Welkah!

"Why is it every time I need to get somewhere, we get waylaid by jackassery?" - Dr. Venture

by Eegah on Mar 24, 2009 6:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

Seems to work for Donovan McNabb too

"Hey, guess what? Nobody cares who would win in a crazy fantasy fist-fight between Anne Frank and Lizzie Borden." The Monarch

by crushedoptimist on Mar 24, 2009 6:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

And Culpepper back when Moss was a rookie.

Bubble screen and watch him incinerate DBs.

"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."

by Fearless Frog on Mar 24, 2009 7:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

Any proof to offer here?

For instance, in 1998 Moss had his highest career yards per catch (19.0), and a below average (for his career) YAC average of 3.6, so %18.9 of his yards were produced after the catch.

Last year, Welker averaged 10.5 YPC but 6.8 YAC (64.8%).

by abender20 on Mar 25, 2009 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions  

Now we're getting into the spot of the game I liked

Stafford did several things in the 2nd half that were way above the “not ready for prime time” first half. He effectively sold play action, and showed the ability to look off a safety. I would agree with John’s assessment that he is not ready to step in to play right now as an NFL starter, but the potential is pretty awesome. The gun he showed on that touchdown pass is tremendous.

"Hey, guess what? Nobody cares who would win in a crazy fantasy fist-fight between Anne Frank and Lizzie Borden." The Monarch

by crushedoptimist on Mar 24, 2009 6:34 PM PDT reply actions  

At this point, I'm not sure what would be the bigger let down:

Detroit picking Stafford first and all this awesome scouting going to waste, or Stafford being available at 4 and the Seahawks not picking Stafford.

by LantermanC on Mar 24, 2009 7:49 PM PDT reply actions  

Ouch.

That gives my head big owies.

by Misfit74 on Mar 24, 2009 9:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

I don't think we pass him up.

But I have doubts he’ll be there now.

"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."

by Fearless Frog on Mar 24, 2009 9:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

His stock does seem to be steadily rising.

I wouldn’t doubt that the Lions are quite seriously looking at him.

"Hey, guess what? Nobody cares who would win in a crazy fantasy fist-fight between Anne Frank and Lizzie Borden." The Monarch

by crushedoptimist on Mar 24, 2009 11:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm still not on the Stafford bandwagon.

But I will say that looking at his career at GA, he kept getting better and better. I do not like that he trusts his arm an awful lot, throwing into double and triple coverage with abandon, coupled with the fact that he stares down his primary receiver, but if he were to continue learning, his steady improvement during college could translate into the pro game.

However, that’s the only argument that I can think of that would support drafting him.

I still want an OT or Jenkins in the first.

by Carl Shinyama on Mar 24, 2009 7:51 PM PDT reply actions  

If you take a safety at #4

…he better be Kenny Freaking Easley. And Jenkins is no Easley. Very good football player, but not a value pick at #4. Starts getting more attractive in the 12—20 range (and below, of course).

by Hawkdawg on Mar 24, 2009 11:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

Who says he's gonna play safety?

I’d be playing him at corner. He has shown that he is an excellent cornerback, damned his 40-yarders.

by Carl Shinyama on Mar 25, 2009 1:57 AM PDT up reply actions  

I haven't seen much of Jenkins.

How does he compare to Shawn Springs as a prospect? Because I’ve seen Jenkins fall down the board of late and see him close to the 8-15 range.

"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."

by Fearless Frog on Mar 25, 2009 1:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

Out of curiosity

Would you prefer a quarterback who didn’t trust his arm? Or is it the extent that one trusts the arm?

Also, I think your statement about “throwing into double and triple coverage with abandon” just doesn’t make sense when you look at his statistics. As to staring down his primary receiver, in this particular game it depends on which half you look at, in the 2nd half (as in the touchdown that JM posted), he did a terrific job looking off the safety. It’s teachable.

I’m not going to complain if they pick an OT, probably not if they pick Crabtree, but the idea behind picking Stafford is sound.

"Hey, guess what? Nobody cares who would win in a crazy fantasy fist-fight between Anne Frank and Lizzie Borden." The Monarch

by crushedoptimist on Mar 24, 2009 11:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

Having seen three or four videos of Stafford...

…I don’t see him throwing anywhere “with abandon”. Yes, I’ve seen him throw many times into coverage, but the ball is usually placed in a spot where only the receiver can get it. He looks very accurate to me. Either that, or his receivers are exceptional at getting up for the ball in traffic.

by djafrot on Mar 24, 2009 11:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

Just the extent that he trusts the arm. It's the decision making that I value most.

Basically, I have seen him bypass a receiver\ who was open and he chose the receiver that was in double coverage or worse. Well, I’m not going to be looking at his statistics, even though I do value what statistics can tell me. I fancy myself as somewhat of a statistics junkie, but I recognize that statistics only tell part of the story, not the whole story.

Instead, I’ll be looking at whatever tape I can find on him, and going off of memory from when I have watched him because that will paint a better picture for me. Maybe “abandon” was too strong of an adjective, but what I was trying to convey is that his decision making certainly seems to be questionable at times, and he sometimes takes chances where he probably shouldn’t.

It isn’t just the Michigan State game that he does that. In fact, I didn’t even watch that game, so I can’t comment intelligently on it, but I have seen other games where he has shown a fondness for doing so. That’s what concerns me. Yes, it is teachable, but sometimes habits die hard.

by Carl Shinyama on Mar 25, 2009 2:07 AM PDT up reply actions  

Favre's habits died hard, too

but on the whole, I’d say that worked out pretty well. Honestly, unless we can make a deal for Brohm, I don’t see anybody who’s better value at #4 than Stafford — and given good coaching (which I hope we can offer) and a good situation (which I know we have), there doesn’t seem to be any reason why he couldn’t be a Pro Bowl QB a few seasons down the line. I don’t like any of the OTs or DLs in this draft well enough to take them anywhere near that high; I do like Crabtree and Jenkins, but I’m not sure they return enough value for the pick (especially, in Crabtree’s case, given the bust record of high WR picks in recent years); Curry would probably be the other best bet to return value for the pick, but Stafford would be more valuable to us (even possibly next season), and I really don’t see Curry being there anyway. Absent a trade, if he’s there (which I think he will be), I think Stafford’s the right pick.

by The Ancient Mariner on Mar 25, 2009 8:54 AM PDT up reply actions  

I'm not quite sure how you can reconcile your statements

“I fancy myself as somewhat of a statistics junkie” vs “I’m not going to be looking at his statistics”. That seems to say that you believe there’s nothing to be gained by more knowledge about what Matthew Stafford did on the football field beyond what your eyes and “memory” can tell you. Since there are many commenters on this site who are regulars at Lookout Landing and USS Mariner, I would really recommend not going down this particular path too much if you want people to pay attention to anything you write.

It could even be possible that those scary numbers might offer a fuller picture, especially his situational statistics, when it comes to this picture of a wild gunslinger that is being painted. After all, they do at least tell “part of the story”.

"Hey, guess what? Nobody cares who would win in a crazy fantasy fist-fight between Anne Frank and Lizzie Borden." The Monarch

by crushedoptimist on Mar 25, 2009 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions  

Both of you have been posters at FG

since the summer of 2007, I’m pretty sure you know what the ‘status quo’ is on the blogs.

Though I think Carl was trying to say that QBs are hard to evaluate. I believe Dave Cameron wrote an article on successful college hitters and how much use actual scouting of the player had, since every year there are players that hit almost .400 and for one reason or another do not get drafted or get drafted really light. For football, a high completion percentage doesn’t tell you the level of competition, the ineptitude of pass blocking, or the amount of short low-risk dump off passes were thrown. When evaluating a QB, it’s key to evaluate the kind of throws a QB can make, and the kind of decision making he exhibits when under pressure. Just my take on it.

by LantermanC on Mar 25, 2009 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions  

QBs are hard to evaluate

Which is why one doesn’t just look at statistics or just at scouting. You look hard at both together to get the full picture. Outright dismissal of one of those components is not a great way to go about assessing a player.

In fact, since college QBs are so hard to evaluate (from the standpoint that rarely come along Peyton Manning-ish talents that you feel almost confident about succeeding), needing to look at both becomes all the more important.

"Hey, guess what? Nobody cares who would win in a crazy fantasy fist-fight between Anne Frank and Lizzie Borden." The Monarch

by crushedoptimist on Mar 25, 2009 1:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

No offense to anyone here, but I don't really care if people do or do not pay attention to anything I post.

I’m not trying to impress anyone here.

Your perception of what I wrote appears too narrow-sighted (I’m not trying to start an argument or offend anyone). I did say that while I pretty much value statistics, I recognize that it doesn’t tell the whole story, which is why you cannot simplify it as a matter of “statistics junkie” vs. “not looking at statistics”, or as a matter of reconciliation. Also, when responding to CrushedOptimist’s statement of my observations of Stafford throwing with abandon (again, I’ll admit that “abandon” might have been too strong an adjective) didn’t jibe with Stafford’s statistics, I was merely trying to make the point that associating a player’s habit of throwing with abandon by just looking at statistics isn’t going to tell you the whole story, and that in other games besides the Michigan state game, that he makes decisions where he probably shouldn’t have while there were better options present. I’m not sure if that made complete sense, or if I have conveyed my point properly, but it’s 12:30 here in Hawaii, and I’m tired lol.

Anyhow, I already know Stafford’s statistics. That’s another reason why I’m gonna look at whatever video I can find, so as to paint a better picture for myself. If I were to ever judge a prospect, I’d at least like to get as big a picture as I can get, not just part of it. Think Tim Ruskell wouldn’t be doing the same thing?

One of the main reasons I won’t just look at stats, is because they won’t tell me about things like Stafford’s read progressions. They won’t tell me about his ability to read defenses. They won’t tell me about his abilities as a 2-minute quarterback. They won’t tell me about his ability to audible. On and on, it goes. That’s why viewing film is also important.

Even then, I also recognize that it’s not limited to film and stats. Interviews and background checks are necessary, too. Only, it’s practically impossible for someone such as myself to be able to access that kind of information.

Yes, there is invaluable information to be had by viewing statistics, especially situational statistics, but they all, a lot more often than not IMO, meet the same shortcoming of not telling the whole story.

Personally, while I am still not sold on Stafford, I hope I’m wrong. I hope he turns out to be the next Peyton Manning or Tom Brady. I still want the Lombardi Trophy to grace the streets of Seattle during a Super Bowl parade.

by Carl Shinyama on Mar 26, 2009 3:32 AM PDT up reply actions  

I appreciate the thoughtfulness of this comment

I think my perception of your comment was based of your writing “I’m not going to look at his statistics”. That seemed to be a pretty clear interpretation that you were not going to look at his statistics. It is good to know you have a more nuanced position, not to mention one that is pretty correct (in my opinion, of course).

Also, no offense taken. We can have reasonable disagreements.

"Hey, guess what? Nobody cares who would win in a crazy fantasy fist-fight between Anne Frank and Lizzie Borden." The Monarch

by crushedoptimist on Mar 26, 2009 4:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

None taken.

I agree, nothing wrong with some disagreements here and there.

by Carl Shinyama on Mar 28, 2009 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

This analysis is great,

and the title of the youtube video is just icing on the cake.

by LantermanC on Mar 25, 2009 10:12 AM PDT reply actions  

Are you doing the SBN mock draft JM?

With Curry and J Smith taken in the first two picks, it looks as though you will pick Stafford? Or can you trade down?

by LantermanC on Mar 25, 2009 1:38 PM PDT reply actions  

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