The Tape: Grading Stafford against Michigan State
by John Morgan on Mar 30, 2009 1:20 PM PDT
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PrintStafford had one more great play in him and a few boners. You can see the particulars after the bump. Let's first get to how I would grade him out for the game. I'll use a letter grading system, but before we get to that, let's talk some essential details.
24 of Stafford's 31 pass attempts were out of shotgun. Michigan State's pass rush harried Stafford all day, but I don't think this an outlier. So, when we say that Stafford functioned in a "pro style offense" out of the drop back, we're misspeaking. While Stafford has some experience playing out of the pocket, and practicing his drop backs, it looks like the majority of his production came out of the shotgun. And while Georgia's offense wasn't a strict spread, it did feature plenty of spread formations.
13 of his 31 pass attempts were screen passes or outlet passes to the running backs. They accounted for 12 of his 21 completions. Another way to look at that, on "pro style" pass attempts, Stafford was 9 for 18.
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B-
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Big highs but little substance in between, plus some maddening lows, makes this statistical corker look not so hot under scrutiny. Even some of Stafford's highs seem contrived. The play I featured so prominently in the previous piece, in which Stafford fakes a toss to the flats before finding Michael Moore splitting the safeties, doesn't so much smack of great decision making or savvy quarterback play, as a designed play Stafford simply carried out. Stafford never audibled and for much of the game seemed little more than an arm extending from Mark Richt's playbook. Sometimes, he made progressions, and sometimes progressions seemed built-in. His short range accuracy was mostly good, and good thing, because swings and screens were the essence of the passing offense. Stafford looked clueless at times in the pocket, once misread a hand off and ran into Knowshon Moreno, and was nearly hurt not hearing footsteps coming from a rather slow blindside pass rusher. It didn't look so much like Stafford was the foundation of the offense, as the offense a vehicle for Stafford's pro career.
Then there were the plays that confounded everything and made me see the immense potential in the twenty year old. Two exceptional twenty yard touchdown lobs. The ability to look off, swivel his head, find a weakness and strike before the opportunity lost. Plays that showed Stafford has more than just a powerful arm, but an accurate arm and one capable of touch. The ability to stay poised under almost constant duress. Michigan State manhandled and exposed Georgia's offensive tackles. The high rate of shotgun formation and screen passes is as much, more really, an indictment of Georgia's offensive line as it is of Stafford.
Make what you will of the grade. Like any proper review, the details are what matter.
Drive Nine
1st and 10 at MSU 21 Matthew Stafford pass complete to Aron White for 21 yards for a TOUCHDOWN.
2 WR (left), TE (right), I
The left wide receiver motions in and back out. This draws the attention of the free safety. Stafford drops with poorly disguised play action. The action draws the strongside linebacker and corner. The corner corrects by attempting to cover the fullback. The fullback is running a quick out into the flat. Tight end Aron White moves up and out, faking a downfield block, breaks free behind the strong safety and reels in a beautiful lob pass for 21 and the score. It's his third reception of his college career.
Drive Ten
3 WR (left), WR (right), RB (left), Shotgun
1st and 10 at GA 12 Matthew Stafford sacked by Brandon Long for a loss of 10 yards to the Geo 2.
Almost off the snap, Long is free. He turns the corner and closes on Stafford. Stafford sees pressure, but perhaps only right defensive tackle Kevin Pickelman. He rolls to the right attempting to separate, but - check the formation - there's no outlet on the right. He slows, never senses pressure and takes a bad hit that drives him down on his throwing shoulder. Stafford bounces up looking a little sore, but for as few sacks as he suffered at Georgia, that's not Dwight Freeney turning the corner and chasing his blindside. This plays makes me worry about Stafford's ability to sense pressure and minimize sacks.
Hand off
Hand off
Drive Eleven
Hand off
2nd and 4 at GA 39 Matthew Stafford pass complete to Michael Moore for 8 yards to the Geo 47 for a 1ST down.
2 WR (left), WR (right), TE (right), RB
Wobbly swing-pass to slot receiver.
1st and 10 at GA 47 Matthew Stafford pass incomplete to Tripp Chandler.
2 WR (right), WR (left), TE (right), RB
Play action. Michigan State overloads the offensive right. Stafford bootlegs into the teeth of the blitz. He wisely throws it away.
2nd and 10 at GA 47 Matthew Stafford pass complete to Kris Durham for 11 yards to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST down.
2 WR (right),WR (left), TE (left), RB (right), Shotgun
Play action. Stafford throws behind Durham on another slot screen. Nevertheless Durham stops, turns, catches the ball, and wraps around his blocker and runs for 11. Get a guy killed throwing passes like that in the pros.
Stafford run. (He's not NFL fast)
Hand off.
Hand off.
3rd and 3 at MSU 25 Matthew Stafford pass complete to Demiko Goodman for 4 yards to the MchSt 21 for a 1ST down.
2 WR (left), WR (right), TE (left), RB (right), Shotgun
Stafford reads up-up-left, reads right, sees the corner blitz and the uncovered receiver, throws without hesitation and delivers a perfectly placed pass that appears in the receiver's hands.
On the next play, Stafford and Moreno run into each other. Stafford hands off as if Moreno is cutting back right. Moreno accepts the hand off attempting to run left. The run looks to the left and Moreno therefore in the right, but we can't be sure. Whatever the case, an ugly play sometimes seen in the pros.
2nd and 10 at MSU 21 Matthew Stafford pass incomplete to Kris Durham.
2 WR (left), WR (right), TE (right), RB (left) -> Slot (left)
Wide receiver screen: Stafford tosses another wobbler that nonetheless effectively leads Durham. Durham watches as it passes between his hands.
3rd and 10 at MSU 21 Matthew Stafford pass complete to Knowshon Moreno for 21 yards for a TOUCHDOWN.
Drive Twelve
2 WR (left), WR (right), TE (left), RB (right), Shotgun
Stafford reads left, up-left, sees Moreno matched against middle linebacker Greg Jones, detects the mismatch and drops a rainbow over Moreno's shoulder for the score. Love this play. Moreno runs a wheel route and isolates Jones. He shows wide receiver hands and good concentration, but Stafford is the star. It's just a two look progression, but the amount isn't essential, getting the right read is. Stafford sees the mismatch and as he did all game, fires without hesitation. The ball drops just over Moreno's shoulder and Moreno tiptoes it into the end zone.
Stafford wouldn't pass again. The Bulldogs killed the clock and Stafford completed his final game as an amateur in often superlative, but thoroughly uneven fashion.
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You're killing me John
First I’m dead certain that the Seahawks MUST draft the best offensive lineman possible. I wasn’t anywhere near the Stafford (or QB) bandwagon.
But after weeks and weeks you broke me down. comparing costs, and success rates, and busts across positions.
Finally I was excited about the possibility of getting a guy like Stafford.
Now you hit him with a B-? killing me, seriously.
(although I will say that your details seem to speak highly for the potential of Stafford if he has a couple years on the bench behind Hass. Do we have any indication of what kind of mentor figure Beck might be?)
Along those lines.
I think someone brought up the point that while a QB sitting his first year or two out might be good, another big influence could be the caliber of the incumbent starting QB. I’m not sure if it’s a factor, but it seems like it might be.
I honestly think who he starts under is immaterial
or at least the importance of it is too nebulous to get a hold of. It seems across sports, players that aren’t great at their position make better coaches and I’m not so sure Hasselbeck is going to impart any once-in-a-lifetime advice. I think what really matters is that Stafford will be playing in the same system, without pressure of succeeding, for a year or two before starting. There’s all sorts of benefits to that. Stafford will have attained some sort of mastery of Knapp’s offense, and Knapp will know what works and what doesn’t work with Stafford. Seattle will be able to tinker with its personnel to fit Stafford, and moreover will be able to improve its offense overall. Seattle could draft Stafford this year and continue to patch up the offensive line over the next two years. If Ruskell is committed to grabbing lots of line talent and seeing who sticks, then the process will be that much farther along. For instance, we can know if Locklear sticks at left, and if not, Seattle can draft a left tackle in either of the next two drafts. I think the key is, Seattle won’t be going from 4-12 to rookie starter.
so, is that tacit support of drafting Stafford?
I can never tell.
I still think Seattle has to take the gamble.
The truth is, right now, I can see lots of ways Stafford could succeed and lots of ways Stafford could fail.
Remember one thing.
John’ s grade is based on one game. There is a larger body of work to consider, where there are likely to be games where he might have passed with flying colors, and games where he might have, well, I don’t really care to go with some of the more colorful adjectives.
Also, I think it’s prudent to keep in mind that Stafford kept improving and improving the more that he played. There’s reason to believe he can carry that over to the pro’s.
Weez the juice!!
by Carl Shinyama on Mar 30, 2009 7:23 PM PDT up reply actions
He graded the Michigan game
because it was a good team. The rest on tape were terrible teams with lousy defenses. If we want any semblance of sense of what he’d look like in the pros, the Michigan game would be the closest.
Really?
I was unaware that Florida, Alabama, Tennessee, and Auburn had bad defenses, or did I miss something last year?
Florida had the 4th best scoring defense last year in points allowed per game (12.9), Alabama, 7th best (14.3). Tennessee was 10th (16.8), while Auburn was 15th (18.0).
Alabama was allowed 189.4 passing yards per game, Tennessee 160.4, Florida 179.9, and Auburn178.8
Alabama: 26 sacks, average time of 27:52 per game on defense last year, and 3rd down conversion percentage of 28.1% allowed.
Tennessee: 17 sacks, average time of 31:28 per game on defense last year, and 3rd down conversion percentage of 37.2% allowed
Florida: 33 sacks, 29:53, 33%
Auburn: 19 sacks, 29:48, 28.7%
Granted, there are other things to consider like the strength of their opponent’s offenses, and the fact that that’s not nearly as comprehensive a number of stats as I’d like there to be, where ideally, I’d like to be able to include things like opponent’s QB rating, QB hurries, passing TD’s allowed, weighted passing defense, etc. That said, let’s compare Michigan State in the same aformentioned categories:
Michigan State: 41st in points allowed (22.1), 231.4 passing yards per game, 21 sacks, 40.8% 3rd downs, and 28:59 on defense.
Those are reasonable teams for which we can also get an idea of how Stafford did against and could possibly look in the pro’s. Michigan state was not the only team with a solid defense.
I will repeat: there is a larger body of work to consider.
Weez the juice!!
by Carl Shinyama on Mar 30, 2009 8:52 PM PDT up reply actions
Tape
I think what he ment was that John didn’t have tape on those elite games, its hard to get that stuff, specially for free when the NCAA hunts it down like foxes.
A fair point.
For some reason I seemed to think John had more tape on the more elite match-ups. If anyone could get ahold of them, I’d gladly watch them or have John or someone do an analysis. It almost makes me wish that I was a scout. I’d be able to have access to those tapes.
However, my point is that there is a larger body of work to consider. We shouldn’t let the overall grade for one game be the end-all/do-all for our opinion on Stafford.
Weez the juice!!
by Carl Shinyama on Mar 30, 2009 11:53 PM PDT up reply actions
I agree with you here, Carl
Michigan St was most definitely not the best defense Stafford faced by a long shot. Frankly, if one wants to be a skeptic about Stafford, the tape against Florida would probably work, considering by all appearances he got royally worked over in that one.
"Hey, guess what? Nobody cares who would win in a crazy fantasy fist-fight between Anne Frank and Lizzie Borden." The Monarch
by crushedoptimist on Mar 31, 2009 12:44 AM PDT up reply actions
I have more games
And we will delve deeper soon enough. I’m going to hedge my bet a bit by waiting a week and seeing if Detroit announces its first round pick. Breaking down the games takes time, for any player at any position. And I’m not willing to push all my chips in just yet, because Detroit could still sign Stafford and then this would look awfully silly.
The next player I’m profiling is Duke Robinson.
by John Morgan on Mar 31, 2009 11:06 AM PDT up reply actions
Sweet about Duke.
Also, if you were to remove the Ruskell-based criteria of experience/games started from evaluating Sanchez and the Hawks are seriously considering QB, how much stock would you put in Seattle drafting Sanchez if Stafford goes to Detroit? I mean, if it weren’t for MS’s lack of experience would Seattle draft him? Could they anyway?
Great!
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Mar 31, 2009 12:37 PM PDT up reply actions
Duke Robinson? You talkin' 'bout Duke Robinson!?!? You kiddin' me? Duke Robinson!?!
Sweeeeeeeeeeet!
Weez the juice!!
by Carl Shinyama on Mar 31, 2009 7:08 PM PDT up reply actions
Stafford's relativity, and a bad "gut feeling" about taking him fourth overall.
Stunning analysis as always… [I’m very glad i found this site, by the way. It’s great.]
I dare say that I’m not so keen on drafting Stafford with the fourth overall pick. While I know a “gut feeling” is about the most subjective way a person could look at the prospect of drafting Stafford, I still can’t ignore the fact. i do, however, want to make it clear that I think Stafford has substantial potential, however, I also see an “Alex Smith-esquian” potential for failure, too. I tend to feel that most (if not all) of Stafford’s value in this year’s draft is pretty much relative to the mediocre mean skill of the entire QB draft class. I believe the risk is too great when we have the chance to acquire a player who is much more certain to have an immediate substantial impact on the team.
I’m really leaning towards thinking we should grab an OT. Someone who could play Guard next to Walter Jones for a year or two (because all indications are that Walt will be back up to par for an aging Hall of Fame LT who just came back from having micro-fracture surgery. Which, in Mr. Jones’ case, and if everything went well, essentially equates to"total spectrum dominance.") Unless, that is, we haven’t heard any news about Jones simply because the team wants the rest of the league completely clueless about our pick. I think Walt will be fine.
Whale was off-sides so many times last season it made me ill (and, at the worst possible moments, too.) While Andre Smith has damaged his stock pretty significantly, he may have the most upside of all the potential top ten OTs. The film / game performance speaks really loudly in spite of the circus lately. While Monroe is good at pass protection, I think there are questions surrounding his run-stuffing ability, as well as his over-all grit, determination, and follow-through on plays. Jason Smith seems like a solid choice, but doesn’t he have short arms, or something, lol? One thing is for sure, though, there’s not a Walter Jones or Jake Long anywhere in this draft class. Not by a long shot. So, again with the relativity thing. It’s all such a gamble. Ugh.
That, or snatch up Michael Crabtree or Aaron Curry (not that i even remotely believe that Curry will fall to #4, of course, but a man can dream, can’t he?) I think Crabtree has the potential to make a serious impact as a rookie. Perhaps something similar to the way DeSean Jackson did with Philadelphia. Maybe the kid has the ability to come in and do something seriously amazing. A WR of his proven production and caliber doesn’t necessarily present itself to a team that often. It’s a gamble I would certainly be willing to take. I think the minor foot surgery is a non-factor in his “draft stock.”
I could even see Ruskell gambling on someone like Brian Orakpo. Could Orakpo be utilized in the NFL similar to the way Julian Peterson was? As an OLB with insane pass-rushing ability? If so, he’d essentially be a younger, more physically sound (even though Julian Peterson was / is a physical freak of nature) Julian Peterson. Maybe it doesn’t make a lot of sense considering the move we made in FA with Detroit, and with tying up a ton of money in the LB corps again with prospects like Hawthorne, D. D. Lewis, etc. I don’t know, you guys. I could certainly see Ruskell rolling the dice on a defensive ‘impact player’ with the fourth overall, though.
I think even though Lawrence Jackson hasn’t had the production we all wanted at end, Ruskell could even stun the world by taking Everett Brown or someone, who knows? He’s a seriously talented player, that’s for sure. Heck, what a about a DT tandem of Mebane and Raji?
I’ll readily admit that i’m a total homer, and I’m a fan of Matt Hasselbeck. I seriously think that Matt has done a phenomenal job rehabbing himself. The Seahawks even made the collective decision to not play him at all, even though he was technically physically able to play in the latter part of the ‘08 season so that he’d have extra time to rehab and develop the core muscles needed to be back at 100% for the following season. The general consensus seems to be that there’s a good chance he’s a good bit stronger than before he was injured. I hear he’s been working really hard. I’m sure he feels like crap after last season, and knows he can be a top 5 QB in the league. He sure seemed to unequivocally convince T. J. Houshmandzadeh that he was back in Pro-Bowl form. And, again, while I’ll readily admit that i’m technically biased, I think he has a few great seasons left in the tank, i really do. Matt is a smart QB, and in spite of all the jokes about him running like a giraffe on roller-skates, lol, I’ve seen him looking really agile scrambling out of the pocket. How about that block for Julius Jones, lol? I’m telling you… the guy’s a beast! Ha!
I know we have to think about the future situation at QB, but is it really necessary this year? I think this team – with a few serious modifications during the draft, and a healthy roster – would be back on top of the NFC West, and post-season happy again.
[Sorry so long.]
by Grimm Blackwood on Mar 30, 2009 6:24 PM PDT reply actions
Note on Above Post:
When i said Everett Brown in the above post, i meant Aaron Maybin. My mistake.
by Grimm Blackwood on Mar 30, 2009 6:39 PM PDT up reply actions
I had a gut feeling that we were going to wipe the floor with the Giants last season.
Boy, was I wrong. Not saying that you’re completely wrong about your worry with Stafford, but obviously gut feelings and emotions simply aren’t ways to evaluate things.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Mar 30, 2009 6:53 PM PDT up reply actions
I totally agree.
Like i was saying, and readily admitted to, a hunch is about the most subjective angle i could possibly take on Stafford… (of course, that’s not all i’m going by, mind you. I’ve watched him play and develop as a college QB like the next guy, but Stafford is merely a decent 1st round QB, and the probability of his success is a coin toss.)
I just think that taking Stafford is exponentially more risky than taking a Crabtree or a Curry. I worry about investing in a Stafford, that’s all. I wouldn’t loose a wink of sleep drafting Curry or Crabtree. If we draft Stafford, I’ll be staring at the ceiling all night, lol.
Stafford’s pretty good.
Crabtree is phenomenal. So is Curry.
by Grimm Blackwood on Mar 30, 2009 7:39 PM PDT up reply actions
I agree with your sentiments on Crabtree and somewhat Curry, but...
If you’re one of the people like me who believe a lot of this season was an aberration due to ridiculous injuries, we can assume that with a return to health, the team will win at least one more game next season. That could be the difference between several spots up the draft board, and we’ll never have a chance to draft the highest rated QB again.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Mar 31, 2009 12:39 PM PDT up reply actions
You know what's sad?
What I remember the most about that game, is not the game itself (the Seahawks lousy performance made it very forgettable) but what happened on the internet during the week leading up to the game, where the guy on SeahawksHuddle.com (and I’m sad to say that I was a member there) made thread trying to talk trash to Giants fans by posting some 9/11 jokes.
Completely tasteless and reprenhensible.
Weez the juice!!
by Carl Shinyama on Mar 31, 2009 7:10 PM PDT up reply actions
While that in itself was idiotic,
I still remember Jacobs breaking his longest career rush because our line simply got mandhandled off the snap and they had at least 2 or 3 free blockers (Snee, Seubert and Hedgehock?). I’m still amazed Brian Russell managed to bring him down.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Apr 1, 2009 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions
UGA fan here..
Posted some of this on another of your Stafford breakdowns (which are excellent, btw), and added a few other thoughts as well.
Against Michigan State, the OL wasn’t poor in terms of talent, but was completely ravaged by injuries. We were starting our 4th LT, and starting 2 true freshmen, 2 sophomores, and 1 JuCo transfer. It’s a line that would have been completely mauled if not for the talented Misters Stafford and Moreno.
As for noting that most of his snaps vs. MSU were in the shotgun, I must point out that we missed All-SEC FB Brannan Southerland for the first 4 games of 2008. What this did was force OC Mike Bobo to utilize the talent he had: that is, a kid with a rocket arm, a 1st round RB, and 2 really good WR. If you watch his sophomore film from 2007, you’ll see many more traditional 3, 5, and 7 step drops.
Stafford is better than his film. He truly got leaps and bounds better each season. When he was a freshman he was programmed to either a) Launch it deep, or b) Tuck and run. By the time he left, he was a record-setting QB. I selfishly wish he’d have come back just to see what he could have done behind an OL with more than 1 upperclassman, but he is NFL-ready. He won’t be a 1st-year savior, ala Ryan or Flacco, but if given time to learn then his ceiling is extremely high. The day he is drafted, he has the strongest arm in the league.
by Hobnail_Boot on Mar 30, 2009 11:34 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
That's some good information, thanks
Quality of the line was one of the areas I felt I didn’t have much knowledge about in Stafford’s year.
Please feel free to stick around for more of the Stafford discussions, UGA fans are welcome!
"Hey, guess what? Nobody cares who would win in a crazy fantasy fist-fight between Anne Frank and Lizzie Borden." The Monarch
by crushedoptimist on Mar 31, 2009 12:49 AM PDT up reply actions
When Sourtherland came back
did the team return to more QB behind the C, I, Power-I and other sets like that? Or did they stick with the Shotgun throughout?
By that point..
Georgia was in the middle of an Arizona State-Alabama-Tennessee-LSU-Florida gauntlet, so they didn’t switch back to the I-back until they were in short-yardage.
by Hobnail_Boot on Mar 31, 2009 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions
Oh sorry, one more thing..
Forgot to mention:
HC Mark Richt gave Stafford cart blanche to audible whenever he wanted. This is significant when you know that this is the only QB he has ever given that privilege to, including Charlie Ward, Chris Weinke, David Greene, and DJ Shockley.
His wonderlic wasn’t a fluke.
On saturdays
did it seem like he was using that privilege?
Absolutely
Against South Carolina this year, Richt said he audibled about 80% of the time.
Often times it looked like Stafford would come to the line, assess the D, then make the call himself (having the choice of a few plays sent down by Bobo). We never saw the ever-popular “look to the sideline where 4 different people are giving 4 different signs” method of play calling.
Also on the Stafford front:
Georgia QB Matthew Stafford’s private workout with the Lions was “flawless” and “significantly better” than his March 19 Pro Day performance, according to SI.com’s Tony Pauline.
Stafford began by throwing to fellow UG alums, but also went through plays specific to the Lions’ new offense. He reportedly connected on 37-of-40 attempts and “threw accurately through the entire session.” Some sources tell Pauline they consider it a “done deal” that Stafford will go No. 1 overall.
Oh well.
Mel Kiper said that signability should not be an issue. I don’t know, I think it’s stupid to entirely ignore something. If they absolutely love Stafford and think he’ll have a 95% chance of success, but they also love Curry and think he’ll have 95% chance of success, but Stafford asks for $80 million, and Curry asks for $40 million, how can you not factor in signability? Sure QBs get paid more, but at some point the amount of money a QB asks for has to matter (if they loved Sanchez at 90% he could be the substitute for all I care). I mean after all, supposedly the 49ers almost signed Rodgers because he was willing to sign for less than Smith. It’s dumb to point out one case, and Smith has suffered from bad luck and a rotating door of coordinators, but I’m pretty sure they’d want a mulligan on that pick.
No doubt about the mulligan...
but I wonder what Smith would have done coming into and developing in the situation Rodgers did. Rodgers was supposed to be a ‘system QB’ (Tedford?) but has shown that he’s excellent so far.
And...
I’m not sure what to think about the ‘signability’ issue. I saw the espn thing you’re referring to and I tend to throw out most things those guys say, but it remains an interesting scenario. I think that if you like a player you’ll get a deal done. Can it really be ballparks and ballparks different? I think that position has more to do with it, as surely a 1.01 QB will earn quite a bit more than a 1.01 LB. Hopefully Schwartz’ group are tightwads. :)
I'm not sure about ballparks.
But I believe the Rodgers/Smith difference was about $10 million if memory serves correct. Looking back, that would’ve been a good deal for Rodgers, since he essential lost $30 or so million by dropping as far as he did, right?
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