Cutler, what is he worth to you?
by Chickadee on Apr 1, 2009 12:43 AM PDT
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PrintAlot has been said about Cutler and whining. Lets remember:
While at Vanderbilt, Cutler was a three-year captain and four-year starter, setting school career records for total offense (9,953 yds.), touchdown passes (59), passing yards (8,697), pass completions (710), pass attempts (1,242) and combined touchdowns (76) http://www.denverbroncos.com/page.php?id=498&contentID=5907
He was also voted team Captain by his teammates in 2008, so yes, he is a leader.(source)
And not to mention:
| Pre-draft measurables from the combine |
|||||||||
| Wt | 40y | 20ss | 3-cone | Vert | BP | Wonderlic | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 226 lb | 4.76s | 4.25s | 7.10s | 37" | 23 | 26 | |||
| Year | Team | G | GS | W-L | Cmp. | Att. | Cmp.% | Yards | Avg. | TD | Int. | Long | Sacked | Sack Yards Lost | QB Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | Denver | 5 | 5 | 2-3 | 81 | 137 | 59.1% | 1,001 | 7.3 | 9 | 5 | 71 | 13 | 85 | 88.5 |
| 2007 | Denver | 16 | 16 | 7-9 | 297 | 467 | 63.6% | 3,497 | 7.5 | 20 | 14 | 68 | 27 | 153 | 88.1 |
| 2008 | Denver | 16 | 16 | 8-8 | 384 | 616 | 62.3% | 4,526 | 7.3 | 25 | 18 | 93 | 11 | 69 | 86.0 |
| Totals: | 37 | 37 | 17-20 | 762 | 1,220 | 62.5% | 9,024 | 7.4 | 54 | 37 | 93 | 51 | 307 | 87.1 | |
So if I can trust Wikipedia, the only injury this guy has had is a concussion, and he still finished the second half of the game. Whiner?
He also is fairly community minded:
Cutler does volunteer work for mentally challenged young people through Vanderbilt's "Best Buddies" program.
During the 2007 offseason, Cutler started the Jay Cutler Foundation, which partnered with Mile High United Way’s Youth Success Initiative to help at-risk youth overcome obstacles and graduate from high school.
On May 1, 2008, Cutler announced that he had been diagnosed with Type 1 diabetes and needs daily insulin shots. He is responding well with the insulin treatments.
Cutler works with Dedicated to Diabetes, which is a Denver-based organization that aims to improve public knowledge about diabetes.
I'll take him. What's to complain about when it comes down to it?
If you're going to say he's a whiner, back it up. This situation sucks, sure, but it has been thouroughly raped for a story and it could be what gives us a chance to snag him. Don't look a gift horse in the mouth. That said, please post all the times he's whined - links or it didn't happen - so that we can stop having bullshit insubstantial assessments of how much whine Cutler is able to dispense.
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Rec this if you like it please,
At least so it’s up till draft day, or when he’s traded ,as a resource.
2/3 of the world is covered by water. The rest is covered by Marcus Trufant.
I didn't vote.
Because I don’t want to give up the #4 pick for him. However, based on my interactions with some of the other members, I am in the very small minority.
They have their reasons, good ones, for wanting to give up both Hasselbeck and the #4 overall pick. I just think it’s too steep a price.
Weez the juice!!
I did vote carl...
… and chose the first option (to give up the 4th).
I’d consider us extremely lucky if we chose a QB at #4 and he developed into a QB like Cutler.
I voted #4+Hass for that same reason
If we drafted a QB at that spot, we’d be hoping they developed into Cutler. So why not get the guy that’s already proven and already had some experience.
But as I said in the other thread, my ideal trade would be a swap of 1sts, instead of us just giving the #4 outright.
Cutler is borderline elite in his third season in the league...
Draft picks are much less likely, even top ones, to produce a borderline elite player at a premium position. A Hasselbeck/#4 pick makes all kinds of sense, since there are more arguments that Hasselbeck is currently worse than Cutler, and he is much older.
Hasselbeck is my favorite Seahawk, but I couldn’t imagine how quickly Cutler would become my new favorite if we were to land him.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
Cutler can't possibly be as charismatic as Hass
But I agree.
If we get Cutler, giving up Hass would be inevitable anyhow. They’d need a temporary QB until a youngster comes along, and we’d want to get rid of Hass’s salary.
Get this: should we work out a trade… Hass and the Broncos would be here for the second preseason game. Huh.
I just don't get it.
I do not understand why this whole Cutler trade is happening. It does not seem to be in the best interests of either Cutler or Denver. Cutler is arguably the best young QB in the game today. The only young guys who is on his level is Romo, who is actually ~2 years older. I do not think that Rothelisberger, Eli, Rivers, Rodgers, Flacco, or Ryan are as good as Cutler, and at 25 he is at the ideal intersection of experience and # of prime years remaining.
I would move our #4 and Hasselbeck for Cutler in a second.
It's really not all that important from the Hawks perspective why it's happening.
Denver screwed the pooch and now every other team in the league can reap the rewards.
Why?
SSR's NFL Fun Fact: Andy Reid is the only coach in the league who uses the pass to set up the pass.
Cutler Hatorade?
I’m asking a serious question, not being facetous, for those that are against this idea: Why wouldn’t you give up Hasselbeck and the #4 for Cutler?
I think its a situation of
people’s personal feelings conflicting with what’s in the best interest of the team. People don’t like how Cutler has forced his way out of Denver, not to mention that he’s a fiery guy in general. But still, Ray Lewis is a murderer but I wouldn’t care if it meant we could get him on our team – for the right price, because I think he’s made out to be a lot better than he is at this point in his career.
by SeaTownBlueDevil on Apr 1, 2009 10:17 AM PDT up reply actions
Really?
I personally said I’d rather lose the super bowl with a bunch of great hard working guys than with a bunch of talented lazy guys, but that’s because I don’t value a super bowl win as much as most fans. I’m surprised you’re indifferent about a murderer however. Though I suppose if it’s hard to draw an exact line at ‘too much’.
I guess its personal preference then.
I feel like people stress having good character guys on your team because they’re good for the team’s atmosphere and make a team better. But if I knew that having a team of jackasses and even murderers would win Seattle a championship, I’d do it in a heartbeat. I go to Duke, and I love having a basketball team that (while extremely hated) plays hard every possession and doesn’t have a character problem with any players from the starters to the bench. That said, if I could trade our team for UConn’s team this year (including computer-stealing AJ Price and loudmouth, arrogant Hasheem Thabeet), I would do so in a heartbeat.
by SeaTownBlueDevil on Apr 1, 2009 1:33 PM PDT up reply actions
You play to win the game.
If John Rocker was an ace pitcher, you better believe he’d be on my staff if it could get me to the world series.
If Pac Man Jones was as good as he’s hyped to be (he’s not) I’d put him on my team if it got me a super bowl.
Talent comes first, character is a nice benefit, but talent is first. Just ask all those old Raiders teams.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
Don't forget the 90s "Crimeboys"!
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Apr 2, 2009 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions
on mile-high report (broncos)
A site writer is requesting “To start… A first-rounder in 2009 and 2010, plus a 2nd- and a 4th-rounder. That’s if you give us a starting-caliber player in return”
And the homers all seem to back him up.
Starting Caliber player is pretty vague.
I mean D.D. Lewis is a starting-caliber player. We’d be giving them one of the best NFC QBs for a 5 year period in Hasselbeck.
As is 1st rounder. We would be giving them a 4th overall pick, which we have already deemed to be equal, if not more valuable, than the 21st and 28th overall pick this year, so it might be worth more than a 15th overall (mid point of the 1st round) this year and a 15th overall next year.
We’d be giving them one of the best NFC QBs for a 5 year period in Hasselbeck.
This isn’t saying much, there hasn’t been much consistency in the NFC the last 5 years.
A 1st rounder in 09 and 10, plus a 2nd and 4th rounder…those prices are silly high. Still, some teams might pay them (although unlikely the starting caliber player part, they are going to need everyone they have just to stay competitive if they give up that many picks). I still think the Vikings are the most likely to go after him, maybe in a 3 way deal with Cleveland. It just makes so much sense for them.
Let me use the same quote to state my argument
We’d be giving them one of the best NFC QBs for a 5 year period in Hasselbeck.
Conversely you’re giving them a QB who will be 34 years old in September and has missed 13 games in the last 3 seasons, 9 of them with a serious back injury. In exchange you get a very good QB who is only 26 (he will be in a few weeks), has no serious injuries to speak of, and is on the verge of being an elite talent. Cutler’s stats have already been put up on this fanpost, I’ll give Hasselbeck’s for the last 3 seasons:
Cumulative Total of Last 3 Seasons for Hasselbeck
Games Played and Started: 35
671-1142 (58.7%), 7629 yards, 51 touchdowns, 37 interceptions, 104 passes of at least 20+ yards, sacked 86 times, 75.0 QB rating, 18-17 record
Cutler has only played 2 more games than Hasselbeck but across the board, looking at the statistics, he has outperformed Matt in nearly every category.
The 17-20 record I’m not worried about because he can’t really do much when the Swiss Cheese defense is allowing deep passes to be completed at will while a second string running back barrels over the defensive line.
I’d like to add this. Jay Cutler to Tony Scheffler was a good combo. Think of the possibilities with John Carlson.
SSR's NFL Fun Fact: Andy Reid is the only coach in the league who uses the pass to set up the pass.
Don't get me wrong, I'm all for this.
I’d even give up more than a 1st and Hass, although I wouldn’t give up multiple 1sts or 2nds. I was just pointing out that Hass may be one of the top 5 NFC QB’s over the last 5 years, but that doesn’t say a whole lot. Cutler is clearly (in my mind) one of the top 5 AFC QB’s and that says a ton. And he’s younger and only going to get better.
i wonder if they realize that they have no bargaining power?
because cutler sounds like he’s done as a bronco.
Well say I have this race horse, young, talented, and he's already won a few races.
Also, in this hypothetical I’m a jockey and an owner. For whatever reason, the horse will not let me or anyone for my company ride him anymore. He’s essentially useless to me. However, all the other horse jockeys are itching to buy this horse. The only complaint this particular horse has is with me. Does his value suffer because teams know I have to get rid of him? Sure, but teams will still bid close to fair value for the horse, and in possibly even overbid for him as is the case with most auctions.
Let’s say that the horse is worth a million dollars, but each team as a range of values for the horse. One team thinks he’s worth between $500k-$1M, and the next thinks he’s worth $600k-$1.1M and son on until the last team thinks he’s worth $1M to $1.5M (this is of course assuming that the average of the teams predictions is close to the actual value of the horse, so it assumes a knowledgeable market). Well, the bid is probably going to end up being over $1M. Of course this example is oversimplified and he’s not worth the same to every team, which is another reason why a team might overbid. Minnesota might see him as the last piece to the puzzle in which a 2010 draft does not matter, in which case they might be wiling to give a significant amount of this and next year’s draft picks to be a perennial contender.
You are right.
What you are describing is a well known phenomenon in auction theory known as “the winner’s curse”. That is, if the bidders have independent private valuations, the winner of the auction tends to have to overpay. The fact that Denver needs to trade Cutler won’t really matter if there is a bidding war, and there is good reason to believe that there will be one. The Vikings seem to always come up when a QB is potentially available. I don’t think the hawks will be seriously in the mix. Ruskell has long been a very risk averse GM. I don’t see him packaging a whole draft or two for Cutler. Too much risk. Even though a lot of us consider Cutler ‘a sure thing’, keep in mind that injuries can derail any career in a heartbeat. Also, what if Cutler forces a trade out of Seattle shortly after coming over? I am not assigning any specific probabilities to these events, but if one were to happen it would totally sink the team. In the NFL you have to stay afloat, if you string together multiple awful seasons you can become like the Raiders, where whatever talent you bring in seems to pick up the pre-existing stench.
they have tons of bargaining power
all they need is two teams with interest to play off eachother.
how many teams would be better off with Cutler than they are now? 28ish?
by Snuffleupagus on Apr 1, 2009 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions
They don't have bargaining power.
But they don’t need it, apparently. The demand for Cutler will be so incredible that it will become a bidding war — they just need to take the best offer and run with it.
Weez the juice!!
by Carl Shinyama on Apr 1, 2009 7:50 PM PDT up reply actions
"Cutler, what is he worth to you?"
My heart, soul, and eternal gratitude.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
Need a third option with more
I’d give up more than the #4 and Hasselbeck. Gladly.
Hasselbeck is a pro-bowl leve QB but for what? 3 more years? maybe he goes 5 more, maybe he goes half a season more. So 3 seems reasonable.
Cutler is a great QB for the next decade, or longer. 10 years of security at the QB position? What’s that worth? well, if Beck is 3 years, then we should ask what is 7 years of a solid QB worth?
That’s worth much more than just a #4 pick. A #4 pick is a huge contract and a potential bust.
Think of it like this. What if Cutler were in the draft right now? that #1 pick wouldn’t even be a question. It’s absurd.
Well to be fair, Cutler isn't 10 years of security.
He could pull a Daunte Culpepper, 5 great years or so and then just a big decline for whatever reason. Also, he could demand the moon at the end of his current contract, and have only the NY teams and Dallas bid for his services (assuming no salary cap).
Speaking of contracts, what is Cutler's like?
And would we re-sign him to a new one if he came here in a trade?
Good question, but he under contract for three more seasons.
7/27/2006: Signed a six-year, $47.86 million contract.
He certainly wants a new deal according to this from MH report:
Bus Cook, Cutler’s agent, is the most evil player in the melodrama. The former "personal injury attorney" from Hattiesburg, Miss., added insult to injury by being a source for the trade rumors and other recent stories. He served as the lightning rod for Cutler’s fire and ire. His and Cutler’s rigid stance could have been a ploy to get Cutler a renegotiated, extended, larger contract or the trade to another team.
that's fair
those are good points.
I guess if a #4 pick is a 50% chance of success, Cutler feels more like a 90%.
At this point if he has a massive drop off of productivity without injury I would blame the coaching staff. He clearly has the talent and capacity.
by Snuffleupagus on Apr 1, 2009 1:57 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm curious about precedent for a trade like this.
Cassell is not Cutler, but he went for a 2nd. I’d have to think Cutler could get a high first and a 2nd next year if Denver is realistic (possibly more).
The problem I’ve been reading is that Denver wouldn’t be so interested in the aging Hasselbeck, but more so in a younger QB like Quinn. However, if they are interested in drafting Cutler’s heir and McDaniels’ new toy at QB, surely the 1.04 could get them Sanchez or Stafford. That price might be too high if Sanchez is who they want, and it might make more sense to get more picks including a lower 1st-rounder in order to get Sanchez at a more affordable slot.
I agree, other options are needed
including Hasselbeck plus a lesser pick, which is what I’d vote for.
by The Ancient Mariner on Apr 1, 2009 2:32 PM PDT reply actions
I dont' really care about precedence so much as what makes sense for Seattle
I think Hasselbeck is more than most of the other teams in the hunt for a QB have to offer. If we’re throwing him in so Denver has a legit starter (previous pro-bowler) while they groom Stafford, Sanchez or Freeman, then I think we need something back for him. I’m not sure what he’s worth to Denver, but I’d be a lot happier with trading 1st round picks with them (4 for 12) and throwing in a later round pick (3rd, 4th or 5th). It would give us Cutler, retain a lower 1st round pick that we probably desire anyway, and not gut our draft entirely. It would give Denver a top 5 pick with which to guarantee either Stafford or Sanchez, Hasselbeck to play for 1-2 years while they groom said draft pick, and an additional 3rd, 4th or 5th round pick. I think that is better than they will get from other teams, including Detroit. Detroit might give them #20 and a later pick, which they could parlay into a higher pick, but doesn’t have a QB of Hasselbecks caliber to offer as an interim starter. I doubt Detroit is willing to give up the #1 pick, and even so, nothing else with it. I doubt Culpepper is as enticing. The others (Tampa, Jacksonville, Minnesota, San Fran, etc…) don’t have as high a draft pick to offer, and certainly no better interim QB to trade. I’m for the trade, as long as we get fair value. We are not desparate and shouldn’t behave as such.
That, I could live with.
If the Seahawks are to give up their Pro Bowl caliber quarterback and their 1st round pick, Denver should be giving something back in return for him.
Weez the juice!!
by Carl Shinyama on Apr 1, 2009 7:53 PM PDT up reply actions
They are giving something back.
It’s called a Jay Cutler and it is a very rare and valuable asset.
Really? A Jay Cutler?
I didn’t know that.
Cutler’s ridiculous value has been driven up for the demand for him, not because that’s what’s he’s worth necessarily. What’s going to happen is the demand for him is going to start a bidding war which will force teams to over-mortgage their future for him.Am I the only one here who’s worried about a repeat of the Deion Branch situation? The Seahawks paid what they paid for Branch, which was too much (and I objected it then, too), because they were forced into a bidding war with the Jets. Many people said a lot of the things about Branch that they’re saying about Cutler, like Branch was a proven commodity, and that the price, a 1st round pick, was right for Branch.
Anyways, I commented in response to Diehard82’s idea of including a later round pick to go along with Hass and their 1st round for Cutler, provided that they can also receive Denver’s 1st rounder in the process, hence why I said I could live with that.
Weez the juice!!
by Carl Shinyama on Apr 1, 2009 8:30 PM PDT up reply actions
Cutler's value hasn't been driven up at all
You’ve overvalued Hasselbecks value is all.
Cutler’s a very special, very rare, very very very good player at the most important position in football. Branch, as much as I love him, is no Jay Cutler. Cutler is a top 5 quarterback in the league behind only Brees, Brady and Manning. What does Cutler have on those three? He’s 5 years younger than Brees, 6 years younger than Brady and 7 years younger than Manning. His value is astronomically higher than Branch’s, it’s a ridiculous comparison.
Nothing you would get with the number 4 pick should be expected to be of the caliber that Cutler is. Any expectations for Hasselbeck beyond the next two years is a pipe dream.
How can you say his value isn't driven up at all,
When the bidding war for him him will do that automatically? Just imagine for a second the ascension in value that would result for a player if two teams wanted him badly enough and they’re forced to bid against each other. It spikes up his trade value substantially, does it not? Ok, then imagine what happens when at least two-thirds of the league enter a bidding war for that same player.
(Why do I get the feeling that it’s going to be another Joey Galloway for two first rounders type of trade?)
Of course Branch is not Jay Cutler. I am not disputing that. You’ve missed the point of my post, which is that we should not forget the lesson that we’ve learned from trading for Branch about trading picks of high value as a direct result of a bidding war. Many people said that Branch was that proven post season performer that would put the Seahawks over the top and that the price, though steep, was perfectly justifiable.
Nothing that I would get at #4 overall should be expected to be the caliber that Cutler is? How can we know that? Well, Cutler was drafted 11th, overall, and look what he turned out to be. Why not? Regardless of expectations, I’d find it very interesting if this year’s #4 overall pick, whoever it is, turns out to be a more higher profile player than Jay Cutler is 3 or 4 years from now and we’re all talking about how dumb a move it was to give up the chance to get the player for Jay Cutler. Not saying that’s what will happen, but that it’s a hypothetical situation that I would find rather interesting, perhaps amusing.
Weez the juice!!
by Carl Shinyama on Apr 1, 2009 10:57 PM PDT up reply actions
Can we stop dealing in what ifs and hypotheticals for just one minute
and look at the chances of anything you said actually happening? Your whole argument is based on Hasselbeck returning to form and being healthy when he’s had a history of injuries and is 33. You’re expecting our first round pick to outperform a players who’s a legitimate top 5 QB in the league in his 3rd year. You’re expecting Cutler to fall off the face of the map and are only using examples of bad trades to show that it will happen.
Your trade examples aren’t relevent. Both Galloway and Branch were not worth what was traded for them. Teams overpaid to ensure they got the player they wanted even if he wasn’t likely to live up to what was given. Those weren’t hindsight is 20/20 trades, they were trades that anyone could have told you were more favorable to one team than the other.
Just for fun, lets compare Cutlers numbers to Hasselbecks.
ANY/A -———2006 - 2007 - 2008
Cutler -———-5.2 -— 5.9 -— 6.2
Hasselbeck – 4.2 -— 5.9 -— 3.1
INT%———-2006 – 2007 – 2008
Cutler -———3.6 -—-3.0 -— 2.9
Hasselbeck – 4.0 -— 2.1 -— 4.8
COMPL%——2006 – 2007 – 2008
Cutler -———-59.1 – 63.6 – 62.3
Hasselbeck – 56.6 – 62.6 – 52.6
DYAR -———-2006 – 2007 – 2008
Cutler -———-33rd – 8th - 5th
Hasselbeck – 30th — 9th — 40th
Cutlers second year in the league was better than Hasselbecks best year of his career. You can’t put a value on getting that quality of quarterback when he’s still 3-4 years away from his prime. Cutler, the 11th pick in his draft, is worth at the very least the 4th pick in this draft. Hasselbeck is likely to add very little value considering his age, injuries, and recent performance.
Wait, wait, wait.
I have never said that I expect the Seahawks’ first pick to outperform Cutler. Nor have I said that I expect Cutler fall off the face of the map, or even that I said that based on previous trades, that it WILL happen.
You are either not reading and comprehending my posts correctly, or just taking what I said out of context. I do not say this to start an argument or to offend you or anyone else. If I have, I apologize in advance.
My argument isn’t based on Hasselbeck returning to health and form. It’s based on what happens to the trade value of a player when teams enter into a bidding war for him, which tends to result in a team overpaying for him. My trade examples are relevant, if we are to learn from the mistakes of trades in the past. Those who don’t learn from their mistakes or from history are doomed to repeat it. People say that I’m overvaluing Hasselbeck. Given the example that I’ve used with Joe Montana, I say that it seems possible the majority of people are belittling his trade value nor are giving the benefit of the doubt that his value could be higher than what they perceive it to be.
Were the Branch and Galloway trades really trades that anyone could have told me were more favorable to one team than the other? Somehow, I don’t think so. I got in many discussions about it when the trade had just happened, and I can recall VERY few people who told me that, with the high majority of them saying otherwise, and that they believed at the time that the price paid to get Branch was justifiable.
I even remember a good number of Cowboys fans who thought Joey Galloway was worth two first rounders when they first got him and that the price was justifiable.
I am pretty certain that who ever gets Cutler will most likely overpay to ensure that nobody else will get him. That’s what happens in a bidding war, and that’s basically what happened when Seattle entered into a bidding war for Branch. Again, my point was that we should draw from the lessons of what happens when teams get into a bidding war. We must also ask ourselves just how much do we want to pay? How much are we willing to step beyond what we’re comfortable with? Just how much are we going to regret paying if it doesn’t work out? Can we afford it if it doesn’t? If it doesn’t, can we recover? Once we ascertain the level of potential damage and risk compared to the chances of success, set a price that you’re comfortable with paying for it accordingly and stick with it. If it works out, great! If it doesn’t and you overpaid, well then you’re screwed. It can get pretty pricey when two teams are bidding for a player. It gets even pricier when at least two-thirds of the league enter into a bidding war for a single player, hence why I think someone is going to overpay for Cutler.
The problem with your comparisons, though it does help support your argument somewhat, is that it doesn’t account for injuries, protection, dropped passes, quality of receivers, etc. Interceptions are more reflective of chance and skill, rather than just skills alone.
Weez the juice!!
by Carl Shinyama on Apr 2, 2009 1:47 AM PDT up reply actions
Bro
Everyone knew a 1st rounder was a high price for Branch, you are omitting important facts:
1) We needed a receiver immediately, the first games of the season showed we lacked punch in the passing game and it was putting a lot of pressure on the run.
2) We were coming off of a superbowl and had an aging core so it was an opportunistic move.
3) We were expecting that 1st round pick to be very late, like 32nd overall late.
4) The deal looks even worse in hindsight then it really was because of the injuries. Yes he had an injury history, but it got worse in Seattle.
5) Branch has been productive while on the field and still has potential to conribute down the road in this offense.
I think all your “learn from our mistakes” chatter is pretty useless. The seahawks brass have been around the block, they didn’t make a mistake, they just didn’t get the result they were after. I think you can justify the Branch trade (given the circumstances when the trade was made).
As for Cutler. You should understand that opportunity is important. Superbowls are very fleeting possibilities and if you are a team like the Vikings who have had a solid run game and defense for years and have been desperately seeking a talented veteran QB, it is almost impossible to overpay given what is at stake.
You are speaking extremely matter of factly about a very complicated and ultimately unknowable issue which is why you are certain to draw criticism here. You would be better off providing your insights without saying that your specific insights create a black and white situation, and that yours is the only way of looking at it.
Remember, a football player is not an independent commodity. A player’s value is measured in how many wins he contributes to your team. If you are the Cowboys, getting Cutler adds very little value. Each team will look, not at what Cutlers objective market value is, but at whether they will win more games with Cutler, or the package of players and pick that they send off.
Your “bidding war” terminology is an oversimplification. Some team ultimately is doing the deal for what they feel is a justifiable price. A team with a more casual interest will probably exit the bidding early, and will have been wise to as their payout for getting Cutler will be less.
Cutler makes a lot of sense for us because we have an obvious need at QB. Hass’s combo of age and injury history is not ignorable. As I mentioned above though, I don’t see Ruskell doing it.
I'm not sure I do not agree that the Seahawks needed Branch at the time. I remember even arguing that point back then.
They had Bobby Engram, Darrell Jackson, Nate Burleson,and D.J. Hackett (who was pretty healthy that year, playing in 14 games, and coming off a pretty solid 2005 season). That alone was a pretty solid corps. They didn’t need him. He was a luxury addition brought in to help put them over the top.
The Seahawks under Mike Holmgren typically started a season slow on offense, so the result of one game isn’t much of a measuring stick for a supposed lack of punch in the passing game. In fact, I don’t see how you figure there was a supposed lack of punch in the passing game. Matt Hasselbeck was an awesome 25 of 30. The problem was in the running game (like a particular Shaun Alexander fumble in the first quarter ), which failed to produce, therefore putting pressure on the passing game, and the fact that the O-line was not protecting Hasselbeck, allowing 5 sacks in that game (some of them coming on crucial 2nd downs forcing 3rd and longs, or on 3rd downs). Oh, and it didn’t help that a FG was blocked in that game. The passing game came through, just not the rest of the offense, particularly on 3rd downs. (Shaun Rogers dominated the line of scrimmage in that game, it was unbelievable).
The combined age of the aforementioned WR’s before the addition of Branch was 27.75 years of age. Hardly an aging corps of WR’s. Getting Branch barely lowered the collective age of the group to a 27.6. I don’t see that as a whopping infusion of youth.
Of course the pick was expected to be a late round pick, given their title aspirations. The Patriots used that pick on Brandon Meriweathers. He seems pretty solid. I’d say that if he was picked up by the Seahawks, we wouldn’t have so many beloved Brian Russell jokes. But even if he wasn’t picked up by the Seahawks, the talent that was available at that pick includes Ben Grubbs, Greg Olsen (who I think would have been on Ruskell’s list, given their need for a TE at the time), and Aaron Sears. Those are some solid picks that they could have used that could possibly have helped them in their playoff game against Green Bay and with their injury problems last year. I’d say that’s pretty valuable when the dynamics are affected like that.
Branch has been productive, yes, when he plays. I won’t dispute that. But I am not sure if we can equate the level of production at the pace of a whole season to being worth a first rounder. That’s a pretty subjective proposal, and I’m not going to touch it, unless somehow it can be measured by an objective barometer of some sort. You may have at it.
Bidding war is exactly what it is. You may think of it as an oversimplification, but like any auction, when two parties or more want something bad enough, the parties will most likely pay more than they were willing to pay in the beginning to make sure the other party doesn’t get the acquisition. Think if the Jets weren’t involved in going after Branch that the Seahawks would have given up their 1st rounder? Think the Seahawks hadn’t entered the discussion hoping to pay less?
The Seahawks have a need for a future franchise quarterback. I do not deny that. They just don’t necessarily need to get one NOW. They don’t need a quarterback that can help them win now, because they already have that. Yes, Hasselbeck’s injury and age is not ignorable. I am not ignoring it, I just happen to know what he can do for the Seahawks today. A franchise quarterback could possibly wait.
Weez the juice!!
by Carl Shinyama on Apr 2, 2009 7:27 PM PDT up reply actions
What?
I’d rank Rivers, Palmer, and maybe a couple of others ahead of Cutler.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Apr 2, 2009 12:15 PM PDT up reply actions
Palmer hasn't been a star for a couple of years now
Though I’d surely admit there are better QBs than Cutler, I don’t think Palmer really is one of those guys anymore.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on Apr 2, 2009 12:41 PM PDT up reply actions
Injuries.
Atrocious offensive line. Defense as bad as Broncos.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Apr 2, 2009 5:48 PM PDT up reply actions
turn this around
Imagine that Cutler currently played for the Seahawks.
Now imagine what you would require in a trade to give him up.
I feel like some of the proposed offers here are absurdly below Cutler’s value. If you think about it in reverse you get a better idea of what a Cutler is worth.
They're low
Because at the end of the day he is DEMANDING a trade, which means he’s refusing to play. You want to move a guy like that, especially before draft day.
2/3 of the world is covered by water. The rest is covered by Marcus Trufant.
That doesn't matter
There are too many teams interested for any of them to get a deal on Cutler. The Bucs and Jets will be at the top of that list but teams like Seattle and Washington will drive the price up even higher. Theres really not any reason that the Broncos shouldn’t be able to get exactly what Cutler is worth, and he’s worth a lot.
Great Idea.
I’d want one of the two new QBs (Stafford or Sanchez) or Brady Quinn, and a high 2nd this year and a 2nd next year. That seems about reasonable to me.
Something like
1st round pick 2009 (#4)
2nd round pick 2010 (#?)
QB Matt Hasselbeck
for
QB Jay Cutler
…?
I’d do it. I’d try and ship B-Russ on them too….
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
When I said this (above) it seemed reasonable.
Cassell is not Cutler, but he went for a 2nd. I’d have to think Cutler could get a high first and a 2nd next year if Denver is realistic (possibly more).
The problem I’ve been reading is that Denver wouldn’t be so interested in the aging Hasselbeck, but more so in a younger QB like Quinn. However, if they are interested in drafting Cutler’s heir and McDaniels’ new toy at QB, surely the 1.04 could get them Sanchez or Stafford. That price might be too high if Sanchez is who they want, and it might make more sense to get more picks including a lower 1st-rounder in order to get Sanchez at a more affordable slot.
So, depending on who Denver is targeting, and if they want our veteran stop-gap for a rookie to learn under, the question is still: what’s the price for Cutler if they deal with us?
Well, two things: I think Ruskell won’t mortgage the future in a terrible way. There’s no way to know right now what Cutler’s actual cost is (or ultimately going to be). The bottom line is that I think we have enough to offer without totally crippling future drafts. A large part of it depends on what Denver wants. I certainly think we have the ammo to compete with most any other team, save for a young, developmental-type QB. I don’t know if they want that. I tend to think they are targeting Sanchez, at this point.
Watch McDaniels cave-in a pull this trade:
Denver gets:
Matt Cassell
Kansas City gets:
Jay Cutler
1st-round pick (12th overall)
Kansas City is probably happy as is
but that would be a coup for Kansas City. They would end up with a top 5 QB, 2 1st round picks (one a very high pick, the other just outside the top 10). And they would have 2 early 2nd round picks. Can you imagine the depth they could add to their team with that? If I’m in KC I’m drooling over that possibility.
But they probably won’t do it because they have “their man” in Cassell.
If I was a Denver Fan...
Or for that matter a Raiders or Chargers Fan and McDaniels did this – and I cannot fathom him being that stupid – I’d duct tape a grenade to his face and pull the pin.
by Azimeir on Apr 2, 2009 11:20 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
maybe cutler for cassell straight up?
or KC throws in a pick to get a proven commodity in Cutler.
No way Denver comes out of this holding less picks than they started with.
Cutler in Seattle won't happen, nor should it
In the case of Jay Cutler, “whiner” is shorthand for someone who just hasn’t shown the character required to assume a leadership mantle as an NFL QB. He got his feelings hurt, we get it. But he blew off not just the coach and GM but the owner, repeatedly over weeks. Have the decency to return a phone call from the owner, bottom line. Michael Vick could do that. Pac-Man Jones does that.
And today he has the balls to release this statement:
"I was surprised they decided to trade me this soon," Cutler said. "I didn’t want to get traded. This wasn’t me. They [The Broncos] had been going back and forth saying things, wanting me to be their quarterback and then they didn’t. I really didn’t want this. I love Denver. I really like my teammates. I didn’t want it to get this far."
He didn’t want to be traded? What did he want, exactly? This man is simply not a leader, gentlemen.
Oh, please.
His teammates thought he was leader enough to vote him as team leader. Who ELSE would you think is worthy?
The Broncos’ leadership royally botched this. Way to go, probably the single biggest screwup in the last few years. Have fun with the lottery that is the draft, Donkeys.
Cutler is the real deal. We need to get him, given the situation. If we can trade the #4 for him, straight up, do it. If so, Cutler will be throwing TD’s to someone in a Seahawks uniform in 2015.
I wish you could un-rec certain posts.
Much like the +/- system on Fangraphs.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
Recs have hurt SBN, but I just wish there were negative things that are more apparent than flags that we could do.
No one likes seeing a bunch of minuses next to their name. I don’t think it would be that bad of an idea, because usually the people who make bad posts are the most sensitive to negative reactions to them, which may drive them away.
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.
by BrettJMiller on Apr 2, 2009 12:43 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, but it's just another SBN feature that could be abused.
The system you’ve proposed is similar to the upvotes at Digg and the kharma system at Reddit, and boy are those systems broken. Both of those systems have the unwanted side effect of promoting a group-think environment.
In theory it sounds nice, but in practical application it will most likely blow up.
Although I personally wouldn't mind seeing individual comment recs done away with.
I’m fine with recommending a well-done fanpost.
by BrianL on Apr 2, 2009 1:18 PM PDT up reply actions 4 recs
::Sees green comment::
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Apr 4, 2009 6:56 PM PDT up reply actions
I don't know,
there have got to be some people out there who like attention, no matter what kind (TO).
Yeah, as much as there's no denying his talent
He really is a scheming little douchebag.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Apr 2, 2009 12:26 PM PDT up reply actions
Personally...
I think there’s a very real possibility that his comments were taken out of context; it’s very possible that he might have been referred to the beginning of the whole shennanigans.
If he IS surprised that they are trading him NOW, why did he sell his house?
Three random points aimed at nobody in particular:
If you were the Detroit Lions, would you rather have the first overall pick in this years’ draft… or Jay Cutler? I suppose there is room for debatable but my instinct says Cutler without even a moment’s hesitation. In most years, for most teams picking first, the goal is to find a guy who you hope can be your franchise quarterback. Cutler is your franchise quarterback. Therefore, the price for acquiring Jay Cutler is at least the first pick in this years’ draft. Hence, the Seahawks would almost assuredly need to add something to pick #4 to get the deal done. I tend to agree that Hasselbeck makes the most sense.
Supposedly Denver would be asking for two first round picks. As has been discussed in other threads regarding a potential trade with the Eagles, the fourth overall pick is worth two (later) first round picks. Worth keeping in mind.
Lastly, if you’re Denver, which is easier: trading your franchise quarterback, or massaging your franchise quarterback’s ego and convincing him to stick around? I say the latter, by a landslide. Starting over with a new QB is a pain in the butt, and I don’t just mean restocking the team store with new jerseys. When all is said and done, I think it’s most likely that Jay Cutler will be the Broncos’ quarterback on opening day. Still, dissecting the value of the Seahawks’ assets and/or their need to address the future of the quarterback position is great fun and a good exercise in thinking like a GM.
Detroit would miss Cutler's window for pime winning years.
They need to rebuild in most every area. Cutler is still young, but behind that line their window for winning games is a few years out. By then, Cutler will be a FA and possibly be ready to move on. And you can’t tell me that after 3 years in Detroit during the rebuilding process, it wouldn’t make him feel like leaving that team , at that time…
I guess my point was...
In a vacuum, would you rather have (say) Matthew Stafford, who you hope eventually turns into Jay Cutler, or Jay Cutler?
More specific to Detroit’s actual needs, I would suppose that securing a top-five NFL quarterback would significantly catalyze their rebuilding efforts. Turnarounds can happen fast in the NFL if you get the right pieces in place. In other words, being able to check “star franchise QB” off of your to-do list is a huge first step.
Not really.
Denver’s offense is ridiculously good. So good that it makes you wonder why Cutler’s TD: INT ratio wasn’t spectacular. Their defense, though, that needs work, but nothing a couple of good defensive oriented drafts and some timely FA signings wouldn’t fix.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Apr 2, 2009 12:28 PM PDT up reply actions
Take this for what it's worth but:
ESPN’s Chris Mortensen reports that a Jay Cutler trade could come by as early as Friday.
Mort says Denver wants “at least” two first-round picks and doesn’t need a passer in return. Only the Lions and Eagles hold two first-rounders in this year’s draft, so other clubs will have to give up future picks to execute a deal. The Redskins and Jets are known to be in active pursuit at this time. -Rotoworld
No way Seattle pays that.
However, there are probably some teams that would, I think they could get at least that out of the Vikings (if the Vikings brass isn’t stupid and knows they need a QB before their SB window closes).
Well, like I said before.
At least 2 first round picks is way too vague. Our 1st round pick is worth more than Phily’s 2 first rounders. And it’s not like our 2nd rounder is much worse than Philly’s 28th pick anyways.
Looks like its all a moot point.
Cutler to the Bears.
http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/9409280/Sources:-Cutler-dealt-to-Bears-for-2-picks,-Orton
by SeaTownBlueDevil on Apr 2, 2009 2:31 PM PDT reply actions
Kyle Orton?!
Over Jason Campbell or Brady Quinn. Yuuk.
Every mock draft in existance is now wrong, cool.
To be fair
They were probably wrong already.
Can anyone who Rec'd this UnRec it now?
It’s a fine fanpost, but its not really relevant at all to the Hawks now, so we might as well send it outta here.
by SeaTownBlueDevil on Apr 4, 2009 8:47 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
I did not know you could unrec something.
Done.
by LantermanC on Apr 4, 2009 9:19 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
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