On Distribution of Carries

by abender20 on Apr 13, 2009 8:44 AM PDT in Seahawks News & Rumors

Football Outsiders has a really tremendous article looking at trends in rush distribution amongst backs. The piece is very long, so I'd recommend reading it as I will definitely not get close to covering it all. In fact, I really can't start clipping in quotes without providing a good bit of context. Read the article. Also, there are some trend graphs that you'll want to take a look at. Did I mention that you should endeavor to read the piece in its entirety?

Here are the general concepts of the piece, so now you are all set to go read the article.

Since the NFL started changing rules to benefit the passing game, the total number of carries per team per game has remained roughly stable.
Since 1980, lead backs have always received (on average) more than half of their respective team's total carries.
As teams began to specialize the roles of the fullback and halfback, the feature back emerged.
The workhorse running back predominated through the 2000's (think about Priest Holmes, LT, Shaun Alexander, etc.).
The last two seasons (2007, 2008) have seen the lead back receive less carries as teams spread the carries around .
The dual-RB system has been on the rise since 1980 with almost exponential growth.
Finally, the recent trend away from a single workhorse has happened twice before, although at lesser magnitudes.

Now go read the article.

We've seen success out of teams with both single elite rushers (Shaun Alexander again), as well as the success of the Giants committee and the Chris Johnson / LenDale White duo (amongst other tandems). While the dynamic duo sets lead to fresher legs and lower injury risk, it's hard to keep a guy like Adrian Peterson off the field in favor of anyone. As a fan, what do you prefer? Do you like the notion of having one man to rely on always, or do you feel more comfortable with a mix of players bringing more specialization to the backfield?

Tweet Comment 5 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

So, wait, should I go read the whole article or not?

by B.B.Finnegan on Apr 13, 2009 10:47 AM PDT reply actions

My favorite chart

is the one with the three bubbles.
Just another good example to look at actual data instead of go by what your biases tell you. I would’ve guessed it would have looked like a straight line from the 70’s until now for percentage of carries the #1 RB gets per game.

by LantermanC on Apr 13, 2009 10:58 AM PDT reply actions

Mild proof that football philosophy is ever changing in cyclical patterns.

by abender20 on Apr 13, 2009 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions

I prefer whichever approach works

As a fan, I don’t care about individual stats, only team stats — and the W-L stat above everything else.

So I don’t care who gets the carries as long as the team gets yards.

And I don’t care what the run/pass ratio is, as long as they get yards and score.

As Chuck Knox used to say, “Play the hand you’re dealt.” If we have a workhorse back who can get results, give him the rock. But if he gets tired or if the opposing defenses can be stung by a change of pace, spread it around.

On the other hand, if the passing game is racking up big yards, pass it some more — until the defense figures out how to slow it down.

Don’t worry about having a “balanced” attack. You don’t get any points for balance or style.

by Mr Fish on Apr 13, 2009 12:45 PM PDT reply actions