Jeremy Maclin Shut Down by Top Competition

by John Morgan on Apr 16, 2009 2:17 PM PDT Comment 14 comments

Seattle isn't likely to select Jeremy Maclin, but if there's any consensus about Seattle's first pick in the draft, it's that no one is sure who Seattle will select. So let's play a game of what if and say Seattle selects a dynamic playmaker at four, and that dynamic playmaker is Maclin. It would suck.

In two seasons, Maclin played seven teams ranked in the top 30 in defensive FEI. He was almost uniformly bad.

Targets: 64

Catches: 47

Yards per Target: 6.04

Missouri's dink and dunk offense kept the ball in Maclin's hands, but he did little with it. He had one touchdown and just two receptions over 20 yards. Good defenses shut down Maclin's run after the catch, and he won't find a softer schedule in the NFL. Of course we're in the very infancy of this stat and there's no proof it is predicative, but Maclin's YPT compares to Limas Sweed. What really separates the two is that Sweed's poor yards per target was linked to his low catch percentage, 55%, while Maclin caught 73.4% of the passes targeting him. It's just that he did nothing with those catches.

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Even Northwestern's fairly soft (and fairly white) coverage held him to 7 catches for 39 yards.

He reminds me a little bit of Josh Cribbs. He’s brilliant with a lane and room to run, but his ability to separate is mainly dependent on breaking coverage.

by abender20 on Apr 16, 2009 2:26 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Maybe Devin Hester is the better example, but I did see Cribbs play some wideout in a game last year.

by abender20 on Apr 16, 2009 2:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If you filter out problem-character, injury-plagued, and size/speed-challenged WRs,

then it seems like you’re left with Heyward-Bey and Brian Robiskie as possible first-day Seahawks picks. Since Robiskie can also return kicks, I think that makes him a plausible Seahawks pick in the 2nd.

Also, John, if you’re taking requests, I would love to hear your takes on OSU’s OG (/C/OT) Andy Levitre, Connecticut’s OT Will Beatty, and FS’s Louis Delmas and Rashad Johnson. (If that’s up elsewhere on the site, please pardon my blooper.)

And BTW, for those interested, I have enjoyed reading Pro Football Weekly’s (free!) articles, including this one: http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/NFLDraft/Player+Rankings/2009/09top100409.htm

by dagraham on Apr 16, 2009 2:43 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Also

Pro Football Weekly also has a couple articles on top-5 “high-character” and “low-character” players likely to go in the first couple rounds. Relevant if past is prologue.

by dagraham on Apr 16, 2009 2:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I read that article.

And thought it was a crock of shit.

"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."

by Fearless Frog on Apr 16, 2009 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It was two different articles.

Did you think they were equally off-base, and where did you think they got it especially wrong? (I thought it was too bad they neglected to mention the rape allegations against Sanchez.) I’m not sure of a better way than reading articles like this for figuring out who’s got a bad rep among football scouts.

by dagraham on Apr 16, 2009 4:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The one about the low-character.

Or was it biggest risks?

"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."

by Fearless Frog on Apr 16, 2009 4:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I concur, that one was really bad

just trying to generate hits to their site, and seeing it linked on so many blogs, it definitely worked.

by B.B.Finnegan on Apr 16, 2009 5:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wow.

My perception of Maclin had him high regard. I though he was rated fairly close to Crabtree with the added bonus of speed and return ability. I didn’t think there would be a legitimate chance of us drafting him, either. What’s his upside? He seems similar to Holmes or DeSean Jackson. But upon review, his size and speed looks closer to the Giant’s Steve Smith (6’, 197lbs, 4.44) or Anthony Gonzalez of the Colts (6’,193, 4.44). Holmes and Jackson both timed faster, each posting 4.3’s. (yes, grain of salt w/ the 40s ;)

So, based on his basic physical profile and college info provided, he should be a mid-late first rounder at best. That’s weird, because my perception was that he was quite the playmaker and a likely top-10 selection. Maybe not.

by Misfit74 on Apr 16, 2009 3:21 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I've always thought Maclin was akin to Ted Ginn Jr.

Speed, bad route-running, butterfingers.

"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."

by Fearless Frog on Apr 16, 2009 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Uh uh

Maclin doesn’t drop many balls. He lacks some precision in his route running, but he really only played two seasons. Route running is the 15 foot jumpshot of the NFL. It’s generally the last thing to develop for players coming out of college, particularly early-entries.

"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin

by dcrockett17 on Apr 16, 2009 8:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Targets

How do you find the “targets” when you’re looking at the player’s stats? Or do you just watch the games and count the times that the player is targeted? I tried to search for it through the archives, but didn’t find anything definitive.

by Kenny The Shark on Apr 16, 2009 3:28 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I use the play by play

and exclude the games where that information is not recorded.

by John Morgan on Apr 16, 2009 3:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

How much of what you're saying is an indictment of the offense's "explosiveness" vs Maclin's?

One thing that easily gets lost with Maclin is MIzzou’s inability to throw the ball down the field. I recognize that you mentioned this John, but for me Maclin’s performance in those games raises a “chicken vs egg” question. It was pretty much all dink-and-dunk all the time, with the occasional jump ball to Chase Kaufman. That’s just what Chase Daniel could do (for a variety of reasons other than just arm strength).

I’m not necessarily convinced that Maclin’s performance against higher caliber defenses-in a pretty small set of games—is solely an indictment of his talent. I’ve said in this forum a bunch of times that I’m a Mizzou grad and a fan. I’ve seen a bunch of Maclin’s games and my eyes tell me that this kid is explosive, and he doesn’t drop a lot of balls. But unlike Texas Tech, Mizzou doesn’t do a lot to feature any one player and was perfectly content to send Maclin deep and throw underneath. Maclin got a lot of “this guy’s not gonna beat us deep” attention from defenses that could disrupt the passing game with their rush. Missouri’s offense on obvious passing downs was clearly a notch below elite offenses in the Big 12.

Maclin may or may not be able to hold his water in the NFL, but but my offhand recollection (and I could just about guess the 7 games against good defenses) is that the better defenses took our dink and dunk offense and rendered it dysfunctional.

His performance against top quality defenses is a red-flag, but they don’t necessarily make me conclude that he won’t be a very good NFL player. Unless Seattle trades down the point is moot, but I for one wouldn’t be disappointed to see Maclin put on a jersey.

"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin

by dcrockett17 on Apr 16, 2009 9:00 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs