John's Mock -- And in the second round...
If the 2005 draft happened this weekend, Seahawks analyst would be scratching their heads over Seattle selecting Chris Spencer in the first. He was a junior that didn't start full-time until his junior season. He didn't start because he was raw. Spencer was a tools god with developing skills. The kind of upside pick people have forgotten Ruskell makes. Spencer had combined to squat, bench and dead lift of 1,675 pounds in high school. He was a Mike Nolan pick. He was Tim Ruskell's first ever pick as a GM.
Spencer could start behind an established starter. He could get up to speed through his rookie contract and pay dividends when Robbie Tobeck eventually retired. Spencer wasn't an antithetical pick. He hadn't stabbed his pastor with a sharpened tooth brush or played in the WAC. But he was a different kind of pick for a franchise at a different point in its development than it would be in 2006, 2007 and 2008. Those were mature teams chasing the light that was ripped away in XL. In 2005, the dawn of 2005 before the magic, Seattle looked like a thin team with a developing offense that wouldn't make a run until its defense was overhauled. Who could have guessed that would take just one season?
Seattle's in a different place as a franchise today than it's ever been under Ruskell. Ruskell won't accept rebuilding, and perhaps to his own detriment, but he's shown an eye for the future. See the future...
Michael Johnson did not see full-time snaps until 2008. That's not to say he was a one-year wonder. Johnson had four sacks as a junior and five as a sophomore. But he didn't start, and that was disappointing for a player of his extreme ability. He's a true 6'7", and his athleticism rivals Julius Peppers. But Peppers tore up UNC. In his three years at UNC, Peppers had 30.5 sacks, 53 tackles for a loss and five interceptions. That's why Peppers was selected second overall and Johnson could fall into the early second.
Should he, I think Seattle pounces. Johnson could start as a situational defensive end and learn under Patrick Kerney. The coaching staff could challenge him and help him grow into his potential. There's an air of underachiever about Johnson and that has made many question his character, but Johnson has no known off-field issues and is considered coachable. Sometimes even players with amazing athleticism and great work ethic are late bloomers, and that might be Johnson, but he doesn't have to be to make this make sense.
Seattle seems committed to taking another shot at the crown. Seattle doesn't need a defensive end to be great in 2008, but it's inarguable that it would help. Kerney is 32 and reportedly wore down at the end of the 2007 season. Seattle has added depth to keep him fresh, but it needs more than that. It needs a player that can step in and be a very good pass rusher. It needs that because Kerney is not all or nothing. He's not 2007 or done. He could miss time with injury, and decline of some kind should be expected. Lawrence Jackson looks like a competent, rounded defensive end, but not a pure pass rusher. Johnson, at his worst, gives Seattle a viable edge rusher on obvious passing downs, and a competent pass rusher should Kerney miss time.
At the same time, Seattle seems committed to making itself younger. The 37th overall pick is affordable and can be spent on high upside players that might not produce right away. Last year's 37th pick, Jordy Nelson, signed a 4-year $3.71 million contract. The investment is less the cap space and more the opportunity cost of a second-round pick. If we take round out of the equation and instead think total placement, 37 is very close to 26. If we take position out of the equation and instead think talent, Johnson is very close to Spencer. If we let our imaginations wild, Johnson still can't envision Peppers, but another late bloomer with limitless potential may appear in our mind's eye, like, say, young Michael Strahan.
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Delmas and Johnson?
Wow two names we haven’t talked about. I don’t know though, a guy that athletically talented, you’d think he could will his way to a 10 sack season in college, especially in the first three games against ‘gimme’ teams.
by LantermanC on Apr 23, 2009 6:45 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Patrick Chung doesn't understand why you would string him along all these months
if you never meant to draft him in the end.
by Nate Dogg on Apr 23, 2009 6:48 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Good god, both picks by you and Doug are defense.
“Spencer had combined to squat, bench and dead lift of 1,675 pounds in high school.”
Holy fucking shit.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Apr 23, 2009 6:49 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I have no idea what a good DL is,
but I’m guessing that would put him at around 450-500 for the bench?
I once saw a guy bench 405 10 times like it was nothing at my college gym. Needless to say, that might have been the most awestruck I’ve ever been from an athletic accomplishment I personally witnessed.
by LantermanC on Apr 23, 2009 6:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not sure either, but
that’s averaging 500+ on each.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Apr 23, 2009 6:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do you have an example off hand of this...
Sometimes even players with amazing athleticism and great work ethic are late bloomers, and that might be Johnson, but he doesn’t have to be to make this make sense.
I fully believe this but just can’t conjure up an example off the top of my head where a tremendously athletic, yet underachieving college DL later bloomed in the NFL.
Bring Your Game, Leave Your Name.
by iverson2169 on Apr 23, 2009 7:32 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Jevon Kearse
6.5 sacks as a sophomore, 7.5 as a junior and then left for the NFL. I’ve been digging for a little bit though and thats all I’ve found so far.
by Nate Dogg on Apr 23, 2009 7:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
wow.. that shocks me... I never considered Kearse an underachiever in college.
Now that I think about it… didn’t Javon play OLB at Florida? In that case his sack numbers probably wouldn’t be as high as a speed rush DE would they?
Bring Your Game, Leave Your Name.
by iverson2169 on Apr 23, 2009 7:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fan-frickin'-tastic series guys
Seriously.
"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin
by dcrockett17 on Apr 23, 2009 7:44 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I think these are very interesting numbers...
2008:
All-American first-team selection by the American Football Coaches Association
Consensus All-Atlantic Coast Conference first-team choice…
Served as one of three team captains…
46 tackles (28 solos) as he led the team
9 sacks for minus 85 yards
17.5 stops for losses of 99 yards…
Caused three fumbles
Deflected seven passes
26-yard interception return for a touchdown…
On 43 running plays he was directly involved in, the opposition gained 37 yards (0.86 yards per carry) with one touchdown…
Bring Your Game, Leave Your Name.
by iverson2169 on Apr 23, 2009 8:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sounds very impressive to me.
So at first glance he seems anti-Ruskell, but the production is there. It just depends on how you scout him: an underachiever with a lot of talent,\ or a late bloomer starting to put it together.
by LantermanC on Apr 23, 2009 8:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well... Also of improtance...
He was recruited as a TE, so he has only played DE for 3 years now. It could very well be he isn’t a late bloomer at all. It could be that he has had time yet at DE to even be an early bloomer.
Bring Your Game, Leave Your Name.
by iverson2169 on Apr 23, 2009 9:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
its a good thing my last post was improtant... not important
Bring Your Game, Leave Your Name.
by iverson2169 on Apr 23, 2009 9:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
totally embarassing post.... HASN'T had time yet *
Bring Your Game, Leave Your Name.
by iverson2169 on Apr 23, 2009 9:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Does anyone else find it highly unusual that
with these 2 mocks of the first two rounds, all the picks are on defense, and yet none of them are the same position?
by LantermanC on Apr 23, 2009 8:56 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I wonder if Michael Johnson was any good at basketball.
And I wonder how much Peppers’ playing for the Tar Heels basketball team affected his draft status or would’ve affected it if his numbers weren’t quite as eye-popping as they were.
by LantermanC on Apr 23, 2009 9:02 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
John your killing me
I like Michael Johnson but he will be available in the 3rd Round. Take him thin. 2nd Round should be for RB’s (Shown Green, Donald Brown)…if we go Defense it better be Clay Mathews, Conner Baldwin or Larry English if he slips. Johnson has lots of upside so don’t disagree with you there (reminds me a lot of Julian Peterson) but didn’t dominate in college like he should’ve. Sure 3rd Rounder though. He’s a candidate to slip. 2nd round will be for RB’s, TE, and CB’s.
by Mr. Blache III on Apr 23, 2009 11:13 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
No, he won't. Shonne Green will likely be, though.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Apr 24, 2009 11:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
We will not draft a defensive end in the first two rounds.
I really, really doubt Ruskell is going to admit that none of Kerney, Tapp, Atkins or Jackson have panned out by drafting a DE in the first 37 picks. God knows I wouldn’t.
That’s not to say that I think any of them are failures, just that popular opinion would think so.
by djafrot on Apr 23, 2009 11:38 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I totally agree.
If Johnson is around at 37 then he is a must pick over there. I for one sort of doubt that he will be available that late. The Mocks always show a lot more volatility in values than we actually see on draft day. Johnson was considered a #1-10 type of pick in the preseason and I don’t think that has really changed all that much. If people were expecting 20 sacks from him to ‘hold’ his valuation, then they are nuts. Sure Johnson hasn’t reached his potential yet, but he is always giving max effort and has a good character reputation. If he can add a little more lower body strength he will be unblockable as a PRO.
He did have 9 sacks, 17.5 TFL, batted away 7 passes, returned an INT for a TD, and blocked a field goal. So when we say he is underachieving, that is relative to some extremely high expectations. Don’t forget that he was playing in a DL with many other future pros who got their numbers too, Vance Walker and Derrick Morgan in particular. Johnson was a load on every down against every team, even against Eugene Monroe. He got held A LOT and refs almost always let it go.
Its hard to stomach a pick like this because it is in some sense an admission that Kerney is on the way out, LoJack might not pan out, Tapp might not get resigned, and Atkins might not pan out.
End is such an important position in a 4-3 and if you can get Johnson at 37 I think you take him in a second. I don’t think you can get him there though, we’ll see. The move makes more sense than a lot of us would like to admit. By next season Kerney and Tapp could both be one and we could be wishing we drafted Julius Peppers, I mean Michael Johnson, in the second.
by michaelfox99 on Apr 24, 2009 5:09 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
he'll be there.
he’s going to be a late 2nd Rd, early 3rd Pick…he will fall to us in the 3rd roujnd or if we can trade up late in the 2nd to get him…but he’s not what we need early in the 2nd…Other players will be available that grade higher then him.
by Mr. Blache III on Apr 24, 2009 8:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
your dreaming.
Every SBN site is talking about how much they love Johnson in the second. It is not going to happen. The guy who everyone thinks is a sleeper second rounder is first rounder.
Some weird unsubstantiated comment surfaced at some point that he doesn’t work hard, you would never think that if you watched a Tech game. It was contagious and the mocks killed him but he will be a first rounder.
by michaelfox99 on Apr 24, 2009 9:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Disagree.
I’ve seen him as high as the 15th pick, and as low as the late 2nd I think. Sure he COULD be there in the 3rd round, but Michael Johnson’s draft stock just might be the most unpredictable. Percy Harvin might be 2nd on the list.
by LantermanC on Apr 24, 2009 9:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've Changed my mind
You know what….if Connor Baldwin isn’t on the board at 37 then I think we should take Michael Johnson if he’s still available…you can’t teach 6’7…He does have the potential to be a Jason Taylor type and we could all agree that he’s not a player you pass up on. We may be able to get a RB in the 3rd but if Johnson falls to us, we have to take him…forget admitting we were wrong about L. Jack, we have to do what’s best and that means take Johnson in the 2nd round. John your right! Great observation!
by Mr. Blache III on Apr 24, 2009 9:02 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I should read all your posts before replyign to one.
Yeah, I feel like we could get something else as well, but a MJ pick would really be exciting. My only qualms about JM’s draft is that we are drafting two positions that we’ve spent a lot of high picks on in the last few years as it is: DE and CB. However, drafting a few ‘duds’ and failing to recognize that they might not pan out is probably a greater mistake than drafting for a position of weakness even though there is already a good deal of young possible talent at that position.
by LantermanC on Apr 24, 2009 9:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
replying*
Why doesn’t Mozilla spell check the titles of the posts?
by LantermanC on Apr 24, 2009 9:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right after we draft Loadholt because he's 6'8".
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Apr 24, 2009 11:04 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What about Herm Johnson?
That dude’s a tank.
by Misfit74 on Apr 24, 2009 12:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That guard out of LSU?
Yeah, him too. Him and Cole and dominate the buffet together.
"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Apr 24, 2009 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Love him....
but don’t think he gets much attention from TR/Solari because of our new blocking scheme.
Bring Your Game, Leave Your Name.
by iverson2169 on Apr 24, 2009 7:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

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