Evaluating Trade Value to the Draft Chart
Seahawk Addicts is a web-based Seahawk fans fix, if you will, providing bits and headlines and rumors for us to chew on, but rarely to give us good meat. Today Chris Sullivan crunched some numbers and evaluated our draft trades and actually wrote something that beared repeating.
Trading our #37 pick (530 points) for the #32 pick (590 points) nets us a bare minimum of +60 points. If the Broncos were to pick at the same place they are this year, that would be a net gain of 670 points. The Hawks then traded their #68 (250 points) and #101 (96 points) picks for the #49 pick from the Bears (410 points). That's a net gain of 64 points. Finally, the Hawks traded up for the #91 pick (136), giving up our 5th and 7th pick (40 pts + 13 pts = 53 pts) and our 2010 3rd round pick (remember, we're dead last so that's 265 points). Thats a net loss of 182 points. For the day, in a worst case scenario, the Hawks are down 58 total draft trade value points.
But wait! The Hawks may also have gained a compensatory pick if Leroy Hill does indeed leave in free agency, in addition to the other one we'll likely get from Leonard Weaver (who will almost certainly be a lot "better" statistically than his replacement, as we will be using the fullback in a different manner) and perhaps a few more along the way. On the whole, we likely break at least even -- if Hill is a bottom of the third round compensation pick, that would be about 116 points, doubly accounting for our lost points.
In reality, we should look at the Hawks and Broncos as mid-round finishers. If the Broncos wind up at #16 and #17, assuming no ties, the Broncos #1 would be worth 1,000 points and the Hawks third round (#81) would be worth 190 points. Doing the same math as above we are +470 on the Broncos trade, +64 on the Bears trade, and -102 on the final trade of the day. On the whole, in a relatively realistic look at things, the Seahawks would be +432 points of trade value, equivalent to the #47 draft pick (Connor Barwin). Not bad.
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Waiting for the league-wide trade chart evaluation
so we can see at what point (mid first round?) salaries drop off enough to where the old chart is roughly accurate.
“Bore” repeating! :)
by shams on Apr 28, 2009 2:32 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
God forbid Kyle Orton isn't the savior in Denver.
A Broncos team that was already projected to decline BEFORE losing Cutler, should be even worse off now that KO is at the helm.
Complicating matters further for Denver is the Brandon Marshall situation. One of the leagues top young WR’s just had hip surgery, and may be suspended again.
I’ve seen estimates from 3 to 6 wins next year on most sites.
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by iverson2169 on Apr 28, 2009 10:19 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Draft didn't help either
Trading away a first and they didn’t fill alot of needs from what everyone has said.
by hawkfanjp on Apr 28, 2009 10:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just baffling...
They picked up Rhodes, Buckhalter, AND Arrington…. then go and draft Moreno?
The Culter thing.
These types of moves just make you wonder if McDaniels isn’t going to pile-drive this season into the rocky mountains. I for one hope he does.
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by iverson2169 on Apr 29, 2009 12:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rhodes? Dominic Rhodes?
He was signed by the Bills. I think you are referring to Lamont Jordan.
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Put up your swords. You know not what you do."
by Fearless Frog on Apr 29, 2009 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

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