A Brief Statistical Encounter with Mike Teel

by John Morgan on Apr 28, 2009 2:00 PM PDT

On some sleepy June weekend I will post YPA numbers for every drafted wide receiver. For now, let's give Mike Teel the same treatment we gave Mark Sanchez and Matthew Stafford. Let's see how Teel's stats against top-30 competition match against the top two quarterback in the 2009 draft class.

The Big East has turned it around in recent years, and that contributed to Teel facing five tough defenses: North Carolina, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Connecticut and Pittsburgh.

Average Opponent Defensive FEI¹ : 47.4

Overall AY/A² : 7.49

Top 20 Opponents: 2

Avg Rank: 6.5

AY/A: 4.31

Top 30 Opponents: 5

Avg Rank: 16.6

AY/A: 6.51

Teel, as one might expect, underperformed Sanchez and Stafford. His top twenty competition was especially tough, and his 25/40, 243, ^1TD/_1Int performance against North Carolina drags down his adjusted yards an attempt. His AY/A against top 30 competition floats on his 15.7 AY/A against Pittsburgh. That begun a high-flying final six games, in which Teel averaged 10.6 A/YA. In fact, though his schedule softened somewhat in the second half of the season, not nearly enough to explain his break out--or should I say freak out.

First Six Average Opponent FEI: 40.1

AY/A: 4.6

Second Six Average Opponent FEI: 54.2

AY/A 10.6

I tend to believe such turnarounds are typically noise and not significant, but it's truly a night and day difference. I thought there might be some explanation, so I hunted around but couldn't find anything. Maybe he added a changeup. Maybe some Rutgers fans out there have an opinion. Maybe boom and bust is just the nature of bomb-throwing pocket passers.

^{1 FEI is a drive based statistic that adjusts for strength of opponent.}

^{2 A/YA = (Passing Yards + (10 x TD) - (45 x INT)) / Attempts + Sacks)}

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Comments

Post-hoc division point

As you’ve noted before in regards to others’ analyses, the point where you split the season is chosen post-hoc to yield the largest difference. So I’d have to see a very compelling explanation before I believe that the result is due to anything more than random variation.

by cyberwulf on Apr 28, 2009 2:21 PM PDT reply actions

I recognize that. Thus

I tend to believe such turnarounds are typically noise and not significant, but it’s truly a night and day difference. I thought there might be some explanation, so I hunted around but couldn’t find anything. Maybe he added a changeup. Maybe some Rutgers fans out there have an opinion. Maybe boom and bust is just the nature of bomb-throwing pocket passers.

by John Morgan on Apr 28, 2009 2:27 PM PDT up reply actions

Yep

Boy, it’s hard to know what to make of numbers like this. I mean, AY/A has got to be heavily influenced by the quality of your receivers, O-line, etc. Wouldn’t it be awesome if there was some kind of ThrowF/X for football which charted ball trajectory and location?

by cyberwulf on Apr 28, 2009 2:42 PM PDT up reply actions

Off topic

John Beck was supposedly released in Miami. What do you think of him and does he fit Seattles sceme? Do you think he would be worth a look to bring in to camp in case Teel doesn’t look to fit towards the end of preseason?

by hawkfanjp on Apr 28, 2009 2:32 PM PDT reply actions

No on all accounts.

by John Morgan on Apr 28, 2009 2:38 PM PDT up reply actions

North Carolina = ACC

by michaelfox99 on Apr 28, 2009 2:39 PM PDT reply actions

The wording was poor

I’ve cleaned it up so it makes more sense.

by John Morgan on Apr 28, 2009 2:46 PM PDT up reply actions

Mobility?

I did a little looking around and saw that he has a strong arm, is accurate, but has a tendency to throw flat footed and off his back foot. The latter two I’m sure kind be easily fixed with coaching but, with a 5.13 40 time is he mobile at all. I know a 40 isn’t everything for a QB but is he ok on a roll out or is that when he is throwing off his back foot?

by hawkfanjp on Apr 28, 2009 3:02 PM PDT reply actions

Brady ran a 5.23 40 time soooo

pocket presence > speed

by B.B.Finnegan on Apr 28, 2009 3:40 PM PDT up reply actions

Also

I don’t think QBs are full-out sprinting on a roll-out. More important is that they’re able to scan the field and spot the open receiver in that situation (or throw the ball away if necessary).

by cyberwulf on Apr 28, 2009 3:49 PM PDT up reply actions

Footwork?

Do you know if it’s on roll outs that he’s throwing off his back foot or is that just a natural tendency he hasn’t been coached out of yet? Only reason I ask is if he’s rolling out he may be trying to put a little extra on the ball if he’s in the pocket he may be flinching from the hit which is not good.

by hawkfanjp on Apr 28, 2009 3:56 PM PDT up reply actions

Brady also doubled in size, got a stronger arm and defied every reasonable projection.

by John Morgan on Apr 28, 2009 3:52 PM PDT up reply actions

Yeah, but he's still slow as hell

by B.B.Finnegan on Apr 28, 2009 4:29 PM PDT up reply actions

he's not mobile

at all really.

by number_twentyone on Apr 28, 2009 8:55 PM PDT up reply actions

Too bad...

…sounds like he’s got a live arm though.

by hawkfanjp on Apr 28, 2009 9:52 PM PDT up reply actions

I can't wait to see him in preseason

I hope Mora doesn’t mind playing him, Holmgren seamed to have an aversion too it when he didn’t think a QB was ready.

by B.B.Finnegan on Apr 28, 2009 3:42 PM PDT reply actions

I seem to remember him giving Seneca a healthy dose of preseason action when he was a rookie.

I have to double-check that, though.

Sam Bradford, future Seattle Seahawk.

by Carl Shinyama on Apr 28, 2009 3:54 PM PDT up reply actions

Hamden...

… got some time one year too but Finnegan is right. He didn’t do to much of it. Seemed like every new guy got one good look, in one game, in one year and that was it. Seneca tended to get more than that I think and Frye got an entire preseason game if memory serves.

by hawkfanjp on Apr 28, 2009 4:00 PM PDT reply actions

That's twice today I thought I hit the reply, sorry guys.

by hawkfanjp on Apr 28, 2009 4:01 PM PDT up reply actions

I just remember it seaming to take forever before Greene got to play

maybe for very good reason. Also Devine last year, all he got to do were a few handoffs. I guess he’s just protecting those whom he thinks will get killed in a preseason game.

by B.B.Finnegan on Apr 28, 2009 4:28 PM PDT up reply actions

Or...

… it was a messege to guy 4 spots deep on the depth chart to show him something or they would stay there an rot?

by hawkfanjp on Apr 28, 2009 4:31 PM PDT up reply actions

To show something, you must first have the opportunity, no?

by The Ancient Mariner on Apr 28, 2009 4:34 PM PDT up reply actions

True ...

…but from what everyone said about Greene he was unmotivated so if he didn’t spend the time watching film or learning the playbook or what have you then why bother putting him on the field? Just like at any other job if your not busy better look busy. Also since Holmgren wanted him maybe he didn’t what him out there so no one would know the blew at QB? This is all guesses about Greene mind you and for a new prospect you are correct if they don’t get a chance then who’s to know.

by hawkfanjp on Apr 28, 2009 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions

Apparently we drafted Teel because we have connections to Rutgers

Some of our assistant coaches know their coaches, who must have really recommended Teel.

The safety guy, too.

by djafrot on Apr 28, 2009 4:39 PM PDT reply actions

where's that

from?

It did come out a couple weeks back on our end that Seattle really liked Teel.

by number_twentyone on Apr 28, 2009 9:08 PM PDT up reply actions

See the video of Knapp commenting on the draft on the Seahawks website

Think it’s in the day 2 recap. Forgive me, haven’t got time to get a link at the mo.

by JamesMurphy on Apr 28, 2009 11:54 PM PDT up reply actions

What happened with Teel

Here’s my theory:

Last season’s OC (who’s now the WR coach in Arizona) was in love with the deep ball. In the first game against Fresno, Teel barely missed connecting on several passes that would have blown the game wide open in RU’s favor. He started pressing, and that led to a flurry of interceptions against UNC that destroyed his confidence. It didn’t help that Tiquan Underwood was dropping nearly everything. and the team couldn’t run the ball. The only player pulling his weight was Kenny Britt, and defenses responded by blanketing him with double and triple coverage. Teel played as poorly as possible over the next several games.

How’d he turn it around? He needed to get his confidence back. Despite playing poorly, Rutgers was able to pull out a win against UConn. The next week against Pitt, what happened was that Britt started torching their secondary. Teel stopping playing in fear. It lifted a funk that had been hanging over the entire team. Underwood woke up, they started running the ball, and the porous secondary improved. Greene was getting torched left and right, and all of a sudden he was back to his old, playmaking self.

I just see Teel as a streaky QB. He needs to be in a rhythm.

by number_twentyone on Apr 28, 2009 9:08 PM PDT reply actions