A Brief Statistical Encounter with Mike Teel

On some sleepy June weekend I will post YPA numbers for every drafted wide receiver. For now, let's give Mike Teel the same treatment we gave Mark Sanchez and Matthew Stafford. Let's see how Teel's stats against top-30 competition match against the top two quarterback in the 2009 draft class.

The Big East has turned it around in recent years, and that contributed to Teel facing five tough defenses: North Carolina, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Connecticut and Pittsburgh.

Average Opponent Defensive FEI1 : 47.4

Overall AY/A2 : 7.49

Top 20 Opponents: 2

Avg Rank: 6.5

AY/A: 4.31

Top 30 Opponents: 5

Avg Rank: 16.6

AY/A: 6.51

Teel, as one might expect, underperformed Sanchez and Stafford. His top twenty competition was especially tough, and his 25/40, 243, 1TD/1Int performance against North Carolina drags down his adjusted yards an attempt. His AY/A against top 30 competition floats on his 15.7 AY/A against Pittsburgh. That begun a high-flying final six games, in which Teel averaged 10.6 A/YA. In fact, though his schedule softened somewhat in the second half of the season, not nearly enough to explain his break out--or should I say freak out.

First Six Average Opponent FEI: 40.1

AY/A: 4.6

Second Six Average Opponent FEI: 54.2

AY/A 10.6

I tend to believe such turnarounds are typically noise and not significant, but it's truly a night and day difference. I thought there might be some explanation, so I hunted around but couldn't find anything. Maybe he added a changeup. Maybe some Rutgers fans out there have an opinion. Maybe boom and bust is just the nature of bomb-throwing pocket passers.

1 FEI is a drive based statistic that adjusts for strength of opponent.

2 A/YA = (Passing Yards + (10 x TD) - (45 x INT)) / Attempts + Sacks)

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