Niners Nations Rates the 49ers Draft

by John Morgan on Apr 29, 2009 2:44 PM PDT Comment 18 comments

Fooch at Niners Nation rates the San Francisco 49ers draft.

San Francisco 49ers
Selections: WR Michael Crabtree (1st), RB Glen Coffee(3rd), ILB Scott McKillop (5th), QB Nate Davis (5th), TE Bear Pascoe (6th), S Curtis Taylor (7th), Ricky Jean-Francois (7th)

Analysis: The 49ers came out of this draft without really addressing many of their needs, and yet many fans (although certainly not all) consider this draft a solid one for one reason: Michael Crabtree. Most everybody was pretty shocked when he fell to the 49ers at 10. While the 49ers certainly had bigger needs than WR, and could've filled one with Michael Oher or Brian Orakpo, there was no way they could pass on Michael Crabtree. Crabtree is officially the most talented WR on the roster and is probably the best WR draft choice since Terrell Owens.

After that first pick, the 49ers drafted in a rather odd fashion. They dealt away their second and fourth round picks for a 2010 first rounder, which led to some strong criticism by a few folks. Personally I like getting the first rounder and if you're not happy with what you see in a high round, why waste money on someone you're not sold on? After that, the team filled depth needs, but didn't grab any sure-fire starters. They grabbed Coffee, an Alabama running back that they hope will be the bulldozer to ease the load on Frank Gore. They grabbed McKillop, a linebacker who they hope can eventually take over Takeo Spikes role, but for now will be primarily a special teamer. They got a 5th round QB in Davis who has no pressure on him, but has the talent to possibly be a long term answer. Finally, their seventh round picks were upside guys in a pair of LSU defensive players. Both came to LSU with great fanfare but for one reason or another never reached their potential.

The 49ers have found some potential diamonds in the rough in undrafted free agents and overall, I am more positive about this draft than many of the so-called pundits. The 49ers got a potential game-breaking receiver and some depth guys. I gave the team a B for the draft. Combined with their moves in free agency I'm feeling fairly good about things.

0 recs | Comment 18 comments | Share

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

I think in this case

We might have a hard time underselling drafting for need.

How exactly is Crabtree going to help the 9ers? WRs, bless their little hearts, are no position to lay on the brickwork for a team. Ref Megatron and his 0-16 team of spunky lil’ teammates.

Not that I disagree that passing on Crabtree at 10 would’ve been folly, and that San Fran should be happy to have him, but it’s not like he can help them off the starting blocks, and I’d be hard-pressed to grade up their draft because a highly-rated player they don’t need fell to them.

Though this logic applies to the ’Hawks to some extent as well.

Still, their front-page polls sees their fans thinking Crabtree will be the leading receiver on the team. Unless he’s Randy Moss reborn (he’s not) or unless all the other receivers get injured (like for us last year), that seems an exceedingly unlikely scenario.

I have more expectations of Hicks than Crabtree this year, and that’s pure situation-based.

Oh, and as for “more positive than the pundits”, opinions vary wildly on the 49ers draft, but it averaged a B by MJD’s count so he’s not far from the average. Though like I said, opinions vary, Outsiders shows a lot of Cs, a couple of Bs and one A+ (!)

Heh

Draft grades

by Vasilii on Apr 29, 2009 3:02 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I like the 9ers draft.

I am not so sure why people think they took Crabtree as a BPA and WR wasn’t a need for them. Their best two receivers by far ar Bryant Johnson and Isaac Bruce, maybe Arnaz Battle. That unit is pretty weak. Crabtree makes them a lot better. A guy who catches like Crabtree is gonna make things a lot easier on Hill, assuming that is who they are going with.

by michaelfox99 on Apr 29, 2009 3:09 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Oh yeah

Their WR group is pretty weak. But so are a lot of other groups on their teams, and WRs aren’t traditionally a high-priority list for a team with lots of holes, especially if one of the holes is “QB”.

I mean, I bet their special teams is pretty weak too, wouldn’t really excuse them drafting a long snapper in the 1st round :P

by Vasilii on Apr 29, 2009 3:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

If you're weak in a lot of areas,

taking the BPA is the smart move I think. Sure they could’ve drafted Oher, but what’s the point of pass blocking if there is no QB to throw it accurately, and no WR to catch it? They could’ve drafted Freeman, but no one in their right mind would take the riskiness of Freeman over the total awesomeness of Crabtree.
Hard to fault them for trading their 2nd to get a 1st as well, though I would’ve been happy were I a 9ers fan with drafting Everette Brown (considering most people probably thought they might consider him at their first round pick anyways).
Good draft for the 9ers I think, A- from me.

McCoy McCoy 2010, also acceptable, Russell Okung, Ndamukong Suh, Dez Bryant, Ciron Black, Trent Williams, Miles Austin, and Sam Bradford.

by LantermanC on Apr 29, 2009 3:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also, like the Seahawks trading their 2nd for a 1st next year, they set themselves up to grab a pretty decent QB next year.

Plus Crabtree will have a year of experience under his belt by then and more able to help out.

by B.B.Finnegan on Apr 29, 2009 4:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sure

But assuming that if you’re weak in a lot of areas, you’re probably rebuilding. And if you’re rebuilding, you don’t start with a WR.

Again, I don’t think it’s a bad pick, Crabbers was fantastic value at that pick. But it’s not something to jump for joy about on a team like San Fran right now.

by Vasilii on Apr 29, 2009 5:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, I disagree.

Josh Morgan is a promising rookie and Bryant Johnson was released and now plays for Detroit. Crabtree should be the leading receiver on that team outside of perhaps Frank Gore. I can see Morgan and Bruce in the mix, but Crabtree should become the #1 there. Hopefully they can keep their QBs upright.

by Misfit74 on Apr 29, 2009 4:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

*was a promising rookie (last year)

by Misfit74 on Apr 29, 2009 4:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't jump to that conclusion

If you look at some of the WR superstart, it’s more the exception that they start leading their team or with massive yardage. Andre Johnson had nearly 1000, but Calvin Johnson and Fitz were nearer 750, and someone like Roddy White had less than 500 yards in his first year.

Somehow I’d sooner expect Bruce to be the leading receiver while Crabtree adjusts. I expect him to justify his hype on the long-term, but short? Eeeeehhh…

by Vasilii on Apr 29, 2009 5:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

With Crabtree and a hopefully (if your a niner fan) emerging Josh Morgan

I think it’s very possible Crabtree leads the team in receptions.

It’s interesting to go back and look at the rookie seasons of receivers taken in the top 10. Guys that catch 30-40 balls for ~550 yards turn out to have pretty average careers, right around 800-1000 yards or so a season. That list would have guys like Koren, Peter Warrick, and JJ Stokes (Braylon Edwards?). Guys with less than that never do anything, these are guys like Michael Westbrook, David Terrell, and Mike Williams (Ted Ginn?).

The guys that catch for over 700 yards their first year are stars. Torry Holt, Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, and Terry Glenn & Joey Galloway to lesser extents (Roy Williams?). The exceptions that I can find are Plax, who just flat out sucked his rookie year catching 22 balls, and David Boston, who certainly knew how to dominate even if he quickly got fat there after.

This obviously isn’t hard data, just something I noticed taking a cursory look at top 10 receivers, but Crabtree would definitely be breaking a trend if he were to only catch 40 balls for 500 yards and then go on to be a star. We might know relatively quickly which way his career will go.

by Nate Dogg on Apr 29, 2009 5:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hmmm

You make a good point, though I very much doubt expansive statistical analysis will show much either way, after all it’s about utilization too. TO and Ocho Cinco had sub-550 first years, but that was simply because neither was utilized much, but neither was a first-round pick.

Rice started with 829 yards. Randy Moss with 1313.

I guess we’ll see. The lesson really is that you usually can’t expect much from first-year WRs. Even the most talented ones. A handful of exceptions notwithstanding.

by Vasilii on Apr 30, 2009 4:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I tend to agree with you about Crabtrees short-term.

It is possible, but ’can’t be expected’, esp. in his first season. I’ve read that the routes he ran in college will be much different in the pros, which could point to a learning curve.

by Misfit74 on Apr 30, 2009 8:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I thought they had a spectacular draft.

Aside from reaching on Coffee.

"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."

by Fearless Frog on Apr 29, 2009 4:56 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Seconded

That trade for a first-rounder themselves was pretty awesome, then they got Crabtree and Nate Davis? Best 49ers draft I’d seen in a while.

"Why is it every time I need to get somewhere, we get waylaid by jackassery?" - Dr. Venture

by Eegah on Apr 29, 2009 6:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Big Bear Pascoe

"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."

by Fearless Frog on Apr 29, 2009 9:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, it's unfortunate they were able to get another first for next year.

It's great to be a Florida Gator!

by Wayward Llama on Apr 30, 2009 5:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

As a 49er fan here's my opinion

http://49ersboard.blogspot.com/2009/04/49ers-draft-grade.html

Now understand for the last 2 years the 49ers have secretlylead the league in allowed sacks. We have a QB named Shaun Hill who has done nothing but win for us as a QB (has a career 90 something passer rating). Our WRs are good enough, but a potential stud in Crabtree doesn’t hurt. But to not draft 1 offensive lineman?really?

http://www.49ersboard.blogspot.com

by supraman on Apr 29, 2009 8:22 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I can't wait to watch their elation fade

as Crabtree flames out. I’ve thought all along that he would be a bust, so if there is any team I’d like to see it happen to more (aside from the Steelers) it would be the 49’ers.

It's great to be a Florida Gator!

by Wayward Llama on Apr 29, 2009 8:58 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs