Recession and Risk Aversion

Under normal conditions, NFL teams are under tremendous pressure to make successful picks. With the added pressure of a struggling economy, GMs are even more focused on getting it right. USA Today has an interesting piece on how teams are behaving under tightening financial condition.

First-year Lions HC Jim Schwartz is charged with the task of resurrecting a rock-bottom franchise and overcoming a stigma of recent high flops by the previous front office.

"I think this is my 16th year in the NFL, and it's my first exposure to (the top pick) — and hopefully my last. It is a different animal, (and) I've compared it a little bit to playing blackjack.

"You can go play blackjack in Vegas and play the $5 table and play for a couple of hours and make a lot of bad decisions and lose $100 and have some fun. If you go play at the $5,000 or $10,000 table, if you make bad decisions, you're walking home, you're not flying home.

"I think you've got to add that into the equation. Not only is it an opportunity to get a great player, but you need to make sure."

Teams need to suceed with their high picks but also ensure that the rest of their picks will be sticking around. Tom Cable talked about the need to get it right throughout the draft:

"That's the real issue. You don't want to have a team with seven or eight picks and next thing you know they keep four or five out of that group. That's not enough. That's too much wasted selection, too much wasted time, all those things.

"And, quite honestly, the team is not getting better that way."

I would imagine we'll see more risk aversion throughout the draft. Drafting players solely on long potential in the face of red flags should decline. Adrian McPherson was a 5th round pick of the Saints in 2005 and never caught on. He was a risky pick at the time, and has since moved on to the CFL. Expect to see fewer GMs swing for the fences the mid rounds, eschewing long odds for safer choices. The NFL Draft hits us in 16 days. I'm curious to see just how many teams stand on 17.