2008 Season Retrospective: John Carlson
by John Morgan on May 28, 2009 3:32 PM PDT
15 comments
Overview: Seattle drafted John Carlson with the 38th overall pick in the 2008 NFL Draft. He was the second tight end taken, and as seems to be the case, the NFL Draft process made the average mock draft look foolish. Carlson, and first tight end taken, Dustin Keller, were easily the two most valuable rookie tight ends. Carlson played in all 16 games and started nine. "Start" is a misleading stat in this case, meaning only that in seven games, Carlson did not take the field in Seattle's first offensive formation. Carlson participated in 72.3% of all plays, the fourth most plays of any offensive player and far and away the most of any skill position player. Carlson led Seattle in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns.
What went right: Carlson was a polished tight end, so his ability to start week one was not surprising. Seattle had no other steady receiving option, so his high number of targets and receptions was not surprising. That Carlson was able to start right away, be targeted so often on a team with no other rushing or receiving threat, outproduce Antonio Gates, Chris Cooley and Heath Miller, and continue to do so as teams assigned safeties and linebacker double-teams to cover him is still surprising.
Tight ends develop slowly. Why that is I am not entirely sure, but a tight end hasn't had a rookie season like Carlson's since Jeremy Shockey in 2002. Carlson did it with great hands, a good ability to box out and separate, and exceptional technical and effective route running. He can run a route like there's a line to follow and is so skilled and talented at route-running that he improvises with the harmony and augury of Charlie Parker.
He was a good but never dominant in-line blocker and a good run blocker in space.
What went wrong: Carlson was not a great pass blocker and showed inconsistent blitz recognition. In many ways, concerns about his speed proved justified and he was not a seam-stretcher or deep threat. He had some hamstring problems in late spring.
Outlook: It's easy, because he doesn't have exceptional top speed and because he's white and so can't be a great athlete (right?), to see 2008 as a great season, but also a great season that accurately portrays his potential. I think that's wrong. Carlson has great skills and adjusted to the league quickly, but even great skills grow and there's no sure limit on how fantastic a route runner he could become, how keenly he could carve a zone, or how ruthlessly he could box and bully safeties and linebackers. He's also sure to become stronger. But to say he can grow, especially grow as a blocker, is not to say we should expect Carlson to "break out". He's already one of the ten best tight ends in football and should stay so as long as he's healthy. His receptions may dip, or more likely hold but in a more productive offense, but unless Seattle suffers another great receiver die-off, he's not likely to push one-thousand receiving yards in a season.
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TEs in Knapp's system
John, do you have any insight into how Knapp may use Carlson (or TEs in general) differently than Holmgren did? I mean from a schematic standpoint, barring what will hopefully be a disparity in WR injury situation.
by jeager on May 28, 2009 4:17 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't just yet
at least not real insight. I’ll look into that.
by John Morgan on May 28, 2009 4:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well Alge Crumpler had his best years under Knapp and Zach Miller also did well.
But I am not sure that is schematic or traumatically bad QB play that always looked for the safety valve.
by Built2Spill on May 28, 2009 4:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's what I was thinking
Miller had a monster season, almost identical to Carlson’s last year.
I went back and looked at the #‘s from his SF days as well. The #’s and talent (Eric Johnson & Jed Weaver) at the position weren’t quite as impressive, but they always finished the season in the 40rec, 350-400yd range.
But with just a cursory glimpse at the raw stats, it definitely seems like Knapp’s O likes to use the TE. And I’m definitely stoked to see what Carlson does next year, because John’s scouting report reminds me alot of what Alge Crumpler was like in his prime – the guy was a slow dump truck, so Knapp very rarely used him to stretch the seam. Instead, Crumpler was like a beefier version of Bobby Engram, always running a great route and finding that one open area to settle in and keep drives alive 10-12 yards at a time. A role that sounds like it fits Carlson’s skills to a T.
by jteckmann on May 28, 2009 5:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good point.
Knapp seems to have a TE-oriented system, but if we look at both teams, it seems that he just had QBs that were prone to passing to their TEs more in Vick and JaMarcus due to lack of accuracy, confidence in their receivers, etc.. I suppose we could look at Schaub, but his body of work was still in its early phase, so he may have relied on Crumpler a lot as well.
by LantermanC on May 29, 2009 9:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice piece.
I had been waiting all day for another thread of actual Seahawks information. I love Carlson. Hopefully he can refine his game even more and continue to add a much-needed element in our short passing-game. I’m curious how many red-zone targets he converted vs. other TEs. It didn’t seem like we used him in the red zone as much as we could have. Maybe that’s because we weren’t often there?
Early prospect watch: RB C.J. Spiller, QB Jevon Snead, OT Ciron Black, DT Gerald McCoy, S Eric Berry, DT Ndamukong Suh, CB Ras-I Dowling 6'2, 200
by Misfit74 on May 28, 2009 5:31 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Anyone know where to find catch-rate averages for position/season?
I found 2007’s which if I remember correctly was 67%. I think with a more open offense due to returning WR starters and Carlson not being the only viable option, at times, JC can improve his catch-rate. He might see fewer passes with those player brackets around him. I can see his 69% number improving considerably as he gets better and has more room to work.
Early prospect watch: RB C.J. Spiller, QB Jevon Snead, OT Ciron Black, DT Gerald McCoy, S Eric Berry, DT Ndamukong Suh, CB Ras-I Dowling 6'2, 200
by Misfit74 on May 28, 2009 6:50 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
It's funny,
I love these retrospective pieces but I always find myself drawn to the “what went wrong” section first. That’s where I seem to find reasons for optimism or sink into the classic Seahawk pessimism I’ve come to know so well (Why not the “outlook” section? I’m a Seahawk fan). In any case, my point is that this has been a great series, John, thanks very much for all the hard work.
by Dukeshire on May 29, 2009 6:56 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm not so sure Carlsons numbers will drop
55 in six games, that’s 3.4 receptions a game. I think he’s good for that if not more. Plus, as others have pointed out, Knapp seems to love using the tight end. Especially one who can catch. I don’t remember Carlson dropping any passes. I also see the quandary though that having healthy receivers will potentially both make his job easier, but also mean he may get less opportunities.
by B.B.Finnegan on May 30, 2009 11:48 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure how much of a swing in TOP with will be
but our offense could run more plays and have the ball moreover the season’s course and allow for opportunities otherwise offset by having a few extra healthy targets that were lacking last season. I like the idea of having an offense that can sustain drives and a defense that will give the offense the ball back. Our T.O.P last year was: 26:37 sea / 33:39 opps. Carlson might still sustain his productivity this season, though it’s obvious to most that we should have to rely on him less.
Early prospect watch: RB C.J. Spiller, QB Jevon Snead, OT Ciron Black, DT Gerald McCoy, S Eric Berry, DT Ndamukong Suh, CB Ras-I Dowling 6'2, 200
by Misfit74 on May 30, 2009 6:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He was dropping a few earlier in the season.
But that only supports your point because it was not like him and something that stopped, so technically he could have had more receptions and is more likely to match his receptions total.
by cashless on May 31, 2009 11:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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