Excitement Index and Comeback Factor

by abender20 on Jun 23, 2009 8:35 AM PDT in Daily Links Comment 33 comments

Over the last couple of weeks, John has occasionally put up a FanShot with a Win Probability graph from Advanced NFL Stats. As cool as those charts are, Advanced NFL Stats has taken it to another level. Using the WP numbers already in place, they have created Excitment Index and Comeback Factor scores for every game since 2000. Maybe you should have a seat and take some deep breaths.This is just way too cool to take standing up.

The comeback index was easy. For any given game, the 'CBF' is based on the lowest win probability at any point for the ultimate winner. To make bigger comebacks have bigger CBFs, I made CBF be the inverse of the lowest WP.

For example, if a team is down by 10 with 10 minutes left in the 4th quarter, they'd have around a 0.13 WP. This means the trailing team has a 1 in 8 chance of winning, and the CBF is therefore 8. A team that comes back from a 0.01 WP, would have a CBF of 100, the largest possible.

That's a logical way to measure the magnitude of a comeback, but how would one measure the excitement of an NFL game?

EI is simply the sum of the WP graph's movement throughout a game. That's it. Despite the simplicity, this method captures much of what makes a game interesting. Games with large swings in WP will end up with large EIs, while blow-out games where the WP quickly climbs to 0.95 for one team will have smaller EIs.

What are the top 5 most exciting Seahawks games since 2000? J.T. O'Sullivan is a jerk.

Game ID	Visitor	Home	Date	Excitement
28698	NYG 21	SEA 24	11/27/2005	8.8
27108	SEA 27	MIN 23	12/12/2004	7.3
29188	SEA 24	CHI 27	1/14/2007	7.0
29378	SEA 28	PHI 24	12/2/2007	6.7
29552	SF 33	SEA 30	9/14/2008	6.7

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Interesting that we won most of those

Actually, more interesting that we really should have won both of the games that we lost, and we should have lost all three of the games that we won. Obviously Jay Feely let us off the hook several times, but you also have the Vikings game where Randy Moss inexplicably threw a pass into the end zone, and the Eagles game where Tatupu came up with a game-saving interception on the, what, 5 yard line?

"Why is it every time I need to get somewhere, we get waylaid by jackassery?" - Dr. Venture

by Eegah on Jun 23, 2009 10:43 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Exactly

I think the phenomenon you describe, “we really should have won both of the games that we lost, and we should have lost all three of the games we won,” is exactly what one would expect given the method of determining comeback factor as described in the post. That is, to have a high comeback factor, the winning team would have had a low chance of winning at some point in the game. Hence the comeback, i.e. the team that “shouldn’t” have won ultimately winning.

by jeager on Jun 23, 2009 2:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

But these were the 5 most exciting games, not the 5 biggest comebacks

Giants game? Not a big comeback. Eagles game? Not a big comeback. Bears game? Not a big comeback.

"Why is it every time I need to get somewhere, we get waylaid by jackassery?" - Dr. Venture

by Eegah on Jun 23, 2009 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

True

That’s what I get for reading too fast. I retract.

by jeager on Jun 23, 2009 4:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well technically

When Mo Morris scored the winning TD we were down 24-21 so call it a comeback. :)

Andy Reid is the only coach in NFL history that uses the pass to set up the pass.

by SSreporters on Jun 23, 2009 4:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not at all suprised...

the Giants game is right up there. What a lucky break for me, that I’ve only seen a SINGLE Hawks game (in Seattle) during the Holmgren Era, and that was the game.

Please, for the LOVE OF GOD, stop suggesting next year's 1st round pick (or picks) be used for Taylor Mays and or a QB of the future. Let's just let the season unfold, people, and evaluate much deeper in the process!!!

by whiskey chainsaw on Jun 23, 2009 10:49 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

That was the only game that season that I missed...

by Fear on Jun 23, 2009 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Awesome find.

Though I wonder why that Baltimore game from ‘03 isn’t on there.

"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."

by Fearless Frog on Jun 23, 2009 11:42 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

that was like 45-41 or something, right?

Early prospect watch: RB C.J. Spiller, QB Jevon Snead, OT Ciron Black, DT Gerald McCoy, S Eric Berry, DT Ndamukong Suh, CB Ras-I Dowling 6'2, 200, RB Jonathan Dwyer

by Misfit74 on Jun 23, 2009 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, something like that.

Seemed like a true shootout, that game was really exciting. I think it went into overtime too, I remember because I had to catch a flight and left right after regulation and was pissed I couldn’t see how it ended. When I arrived at my destination and hastily called my cousin to ask how it ended, boy was I disappointed.

"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."

by Fearless Frog on Jun 23, 2009 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It was 44-41

Seahawks basically got screwed because of some weird and incorrect timeout situation that gave the Ravens life.

It was 41-24 but the Seahawks somehow blew it. That was of course during the 03-04 days of blowing leads.

Andy Reid is the only coach in NFL history that uses the pass to set up the pass.

by SSreporters on Jun 23, 2009 12:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It was actually multiple bullshit calls.

People complain about the Superbowl, but that game was easily as bad.

Matt absolutely lit it up against one of the league’s top defenses that year. Too bad we couldn’t stop anything. We complain about our corners now, but whomever we had then was getting outjumped for every terrible jumpball thrown by… uh… who was it?

by djafrot on Jun 23, 2009 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Marcus Robinson I think.

The guy that was on the Vikings for a while.

by cashless on Jun 23, 2009 2:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bears, I thought

Early prospect watch: RB C.J. Spiller, QB Jevon Snead, OT Ciron Black, DT Gerald McCoy, S Eric Berry, DT Ndamukong Suh, CB Ras-I Dowling 6'2, 200, RB Jonathan Dwyer

by Misfit74 on Jun 23, 2009 9:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Floyd Womack being declared an ineligible receiver despite the fact he checked in as a tight end or something.

Or maybe it was being too far upfield. Either way it was wrong.

"Part, fools!
Put up your swords. You know not what you do."

by Fearless Frog on Jun 23, 2009 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I remember after the game...

the NFL actually issued an apology for the poor officiating, which was the only time I’ve ever seen that occur. (Of course, they would never ADMIT to it in a game as important as a Super Bowl…)

by whiskey chainsaw on Jun 23, 2009 3:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That game was the 4th biggest comeback for all of '03

6.4 EI just misses the top 5.

by Nate Dogg on Jun 23, 2009 4:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like this

it’s only limited by the scores that weren’t – like the Romo botched snap etc. That Chicago playoff game is still bugging me more than two years later.

by JamesMurphy on Jun 23, 2009 12:03 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, the Romo snap game was exciting to say the least.

That Giants-‘Hawks game has the third-highest excitement rating of any NFL game since 2000. (If they had a way to incorporate Shockey’s taunting numerically I’m pretty sure it would have been the highest.)

Weird how a game with a 100 comeback rating can have a really low excitement factor….

by thebyron on Jun 23, 2009 1:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm guessing, if it's the NYG game you're referring to w/ the 100 comeback rating

is that missed FGs aren’t the biggest of momentum swings and valued less numerically vs. TDs being scored, defensive/st return, etc.

Early prospect watch: RB C.J. Spiller, QB Jevon Snead, OT Ciron Black, DT Gerald McCoy, S Eric Berry, DT Ndamukong Suh, CB Ras-I Dowling 6'2, 200, RB Jonathan Dwyer

by Misfit74 on Jun 23, 2009 1:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That game actually had a comeback factor of 16.7

There were three ‘Hawks games with 100 CBFs: the Baltimore game from ’03 that people were discussing, the SD game from ’02 and an ’04 game against the Rams. You’re right though, missed FGs would barely impact the CBF if I’m understanding this correctly.

I am surprised that there were so many games with 100 CBFs, now that I think about it. If my math is right, this database should cover 2,403 games (16 games x 16 weeks + 11 playoff games) x 9 years. If a game needs to have the winning team come back from a 0.01 probability (a 1% chance of victory) to get a CBF of 100, then there should be approximately 24 games with 100 CBFs, right? Instead there are 42….does that seem way too high to anyone else? Am I missing something here?

by thebyron on Jun 24, 2009 8:11 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

This metric needs to have a weighting for importance of the game

A game is undeniably more exciting if it is has playoff implications than if it is meaningless (given the same circumstances).

I thought the Redskins-Seahawks wildcard game from a couple of years ago was pretty exciting. It featured a miracle comeback and a brutal sack of Todd Collins by Leroy Hill through the FB.

by ninjasocks on Jun 23, 2009 1:58 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

That is probably too subjective to quantify. Treat the EI rating as an in-game excitement level and set your own baseline level of excitement based on context.

by abender20 on Jun 23, 2009 3:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I loved that game.

Edge of my seat. The sweetness of it for me was: I watched it with a diehard Redskins fan. He was also very passionate about his team. It almost made a grown man cry. INT return for TD, I remember (or 2). Nail. In. Coffin.

Early prospect watch: RB C.J. Spiller, QB Jevon Snead, OT Ciron Black, DT Gerald McCoy, S Eric Berry, DT Ndamukong Suh, CB Ras-I Dowling 6'2, 200, RB Jonathan Dwyer

by Misfit74 on Jun 23, 2009 9:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I watched with a diehard 'Skins fan too.

2 INT TDs, both in the 4th quarter. What a fun game to watch….

by thebyron on Jun 24, 2009 8:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Games I liked

Seahawks 37 Rams 31 in 2005

Joe Jurevicius had 2 TD passes after his son had passed away and the Rams botched a punt that clinched us the game.

I think Shaun scored twice.

Rams took the opening kickoff for a TD.

It sent us to 3-2 and probably was the main reason we didn’t lose until week 17. And it was about time we won in St. Louis.

Andy Reid is the only coach in NFL history that uses the pass to set up the pass.

by SSreporters on Jun 23, 2009 4:17 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah it should've said game*

Andy Reid is the only coach in NFL history that uses the pass to set up the pass.

by SSreporters on Jun 23, 2009 4:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It seems like the Rams games are always great

That game, Burleson’s first punt return for a touchdown, the Gus Frerotte fumble, Torry Holt’s circus catch, the Terreal Bierra puke game. Fucking Rams have shaved years off my life.

by Nate Dogg on Jun 23, 2009 4:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kevin Curtis and/or Shaun McDonald bombs are what I remembered.

I wanted to kill them and our secondary, and our d-coordinator (though I love me some ray rhodes).

Early prospect watch: RB C.J. Spiller, QB Jevon Snead, OT Ciron Black, DT Gerald McCoy, S Eric Berry, DT Ndamukong Suh, CB Ras-I Dowling 6'2, 200, RB Jonathan Dwyer

by Misfit74 on Jun 23, 2009 9:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs